satisfaccion de cliente y crisis financiera (ingles)

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Madrid, February 25, 2009 Customer Satisfaction and The Financial Crisis Claes Fornell Chairman, CFI Group and The Donald C. Cook Professor, University of Michigan

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Presentación sobre la como las políticas de Satisfacción de Clientes en las empresas han servido para defenderse mejor de la Crisis Financiera del 2009. Claes Fornell las presentó en el Aula Magna de Esic el 25 de febrero de 2009.

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  • Madrid, February 25, 2009Customer SatisfactionandThe Financial CrisisClaes FornellChairman, CFI Group and The Donald C. Cook Professor, University of Michigan

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *What Caused the Crisis?Bizarre behavior byUS consumersDidnt save in good timesNow saving in bad timesUS governmentBorrowed in good times (created deficits)US banks/financial institutionsEnormous risk taking (until now)Zero risk taking (now)

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *Why Is the Rest of the World Affected?Risky assets were packaged and sold to the rest of the worldCollapse of US consumption of imported goods

    World-wide recession

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *What Is a Recession?GDP = Consumer spending+ Government spending+ (Exports Imports)+ Investments

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *The Cure: Monetary Policy (Friedman)Interest ratesPrint money

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *The Cure:GDP = Consumer spending + Government SpendingFiscal Policy (Keynes)Household Income

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *How Customer Satisfaction Is CriticalMacroConsumer SpendingCredit AvailabilityConsumer Confidence

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *How Customer Satisfaction Is CriticalLoyal customers are the last to leave and the first to come back.Loyal and satisfied customers are a critical asset, but you will not find this on the balance sheet.Micro

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *Consider the FollowingGlobal forces What to do What not to do Economic returns/Low risk

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *Global Forces and Power ShiftingMovement of:Information Capital Work (not labor)

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *Who Benefits Most?Buyers or sellers?

    Who is getting more choice?

    Who is becoming more replaceable?

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *Off-balance sheet assets Power attracts capital Customer Asset ManagementHow to do Business When Buyers Are Getting More Powerful?

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    ACSI: American Customer Satisfaction Index1994 2008

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *Investment ReturnsWheres the leverage? Whats the return on customer assets? Do customers know something investors dont?

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *ObservationsAssets on Balance Sheet Less PredictiveIntangible Market-Based Assets (Customer Satisfaction) More Predictive

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *The Theory++Capitalizing on the Shift in Balance of Power Between Buyers and Sellers in Product/Service MarketsClassical Economic Utility (Satisfaction)TheoryTechnology for Extracting Value-Relevant Information

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *How Are Markets Supposed to Work?SellerProduct MarketsEquity MarketsRepeat BuyingMore CapitalThe Successful SellerBuyer defection in product marketsCapital withdrawal from equity markets

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *Can You Beat the Market?Only if you know something that others dont

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *

    Customers (in the aggregate) Have Certain Value-Relevant Information Before Investors Do The Premise

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *The American Customer Satisfaction Index, the definitive benchmark of how buyers feel about what business is selling them.- New York Times, August 8, 2004

    Investment Universe: Approx. 200 Large Cap. Consumer Companies Covered by ACSI

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    **Annual Returns: ACSI stock portfolio vs. S&P 500April 2000 (Inception) - 2008-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%Yearly PerformanceS&P 500ACSI Stock Portfolio200020012002200320042005200620072008

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *Effects of Customer Satisfaction: Repeat Buying/LoyaltyPricing PowerHigh Reservation PricesLow Cash Flow Volatility

    Investment ImplicationsTranslate Into:Above-Market ReturnsLow Down-Side RiskBeta Surfing (B < 1 in down markets; B > 1 in up markets)

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *7.9%17.6%14.3%3.0%10.7%8.8%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%200320042005200620072008CSat Market NeutralCSat Market Neutral: Annual ReturnsAfter Fees

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *Implications for Corporate ManagementWhat Losers DoBuy customer loyalty with price discountsCut costs at the expense of weakening customer relationshipsGet too close to the customerRely on mass production and mass marketingTry to exceed customer expectations

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *Implications for Corporate ManagementWhat Winners DoManage customer relationships as true economic assetsCut costs where they have the least impact on customer assetsUnderstand marginal analysisMaximize customer complaintsEarn the loyalty of their customers by satisfying them

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *Marginal AnalysisWhat to DoPersonal serviceMerchandise assortmentFacilitiesWaiting time

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *Marginal Analysis What to Improve in Good TimesPersonal serviceMerchandise assortmentFacilitiesWaiting time

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *Marginal Analysis What to Cut in Bad TimesPersonal serviceMerchandise assortmentFacilitiesWaiting time

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *The Future:Some element of Non-rival goods + customer asset managementCustomers + InvestorsA New Alliance:Rising Cost of Time:Buyers will offload work on sellersKey to Success in:

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *Typical Rate of Return

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *Rate of Return: Customer Retention

    2009 CFI Group. All rights reserved.

    *Rate of Return: Non-Rival Goods

    *