EN50126/8/9 TWO DAY COURSE

The Potential for Using Big Data Analytics to Predict Safety Risks by Analysing Rail Accidents. Dr H. J. Parkinson and Dr G. BamfordDigital Rail Limited, Lancaster, EnglandNTTX Advisory Limited, Warrington, England

06/04/2016Copyright Digital Rail Ltd and NTTX Ltd1The Third International Conference on Railway Technology: Research, Development and Maintenance Cagliari, Sardinia, Italy 5-8 April 2016Paper 0123456789Stream: RW2016Reference: RW2016/2015/00096Session: RW2016-S09: Accidents Analysis and R&D of Safety Technologies

Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Great to be here and thank you for attending this special session on Accidents Analysis and R&D of Safety Technologies.

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Focus of PaperWhat is Big Data and why its usefulData TaxonomyCauses, Hazards and AccidentsAccident Analysis and links to dataBDness of accidentsA new approaching using the ELBowtie06/04/2016Copyright Digital Rail Ltd and NTTX Ltd2

What is Big Data and why its usefulData TaxonomyCauses, Hazards and AccidentsAccident Analysis and links to dataBDness of accidentsA new approaching using the ELBowtie

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A new dawn?

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The Uptake in New Technology (Gartner 2014

Big Data, massive amounts of data, structure and unstructured, real time and historical. Every day, we create 2.5 quintillion bytes of data so much that 90% of the data in the world today has been created in the last two years alone IBM Source. Zetta byte 1000to the power 7: 1000kB kilobyte10002MB megabyte10003GB gigabyte10004TB terabyte10005PB petabyte10006EB exabyte10007ZBzettabyte10008YBy ottabyte

IOT, massive interconnectivity of assets. Intelligent monitoring using cheap electronics, sensors and connectivety, for exam[le GPRS 4G etc. Long battery lives so can be remote. Could festoon the rail network with this technology creating and internet of rail. We can have thero couples, accelometers, strain gauges, etc etc.

Lot of hype about big data. Number of conference papers maps the exponential growth in data. Gartnet cycle. We did Neural Nets back in the last centrury. Alos involved in an AI in design project. These were followed by what has been described as an AI winter.We are now climbing out of the trough of disillutionment, up the slope of enlightenment and onto the heady uplans of the Plateau of productivity.

Volume (amount), Velocity (speed of capture or change), Variety (number of sources), Veracity (quality), and Value (here the safety related value).

I this paper we have used these Big Data attributes to try to categorise the analysis of accidents and the associated data.

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06/04/2016Copyright Digital Rail Ltd and NTTX Ltd41.Real timea.Remote monitoringb.Traffic flowsc.Incident datad.Close Calls/ Alerts/CIRASe.Emergency services communicationsf.CCTV2.Asseta.Maintenance b.Risk based inspection and maintenance datac.Integrity data, safety, security, environmentald.Design Hazard Data (residual risks)3.BI - business relateda.Financeb.HR relatedc.Quality managementd.Safety managemente.Project management/Business Risk Assessment4.Operationala.Complex unstructured data, reports, spreadsheets etc.b.Staffing levels, etc.c.Manning schedulesd.Service related, timetables, etc.,e.Operational Risk Assessment5.Sociala.Twitterb.LinkedInc.Facebookd.Other e.g. news items6.Externala.Supplier datab.Map related data, works location etc.c.Environmental trends, weather etc.7.Personala.Location historyb.Health relatedc.Education related

What data is available in the railway and related areas?condition based monitoring information from sensors, either analogue or digital, that would provide digital information, including vibration (accelerometers), machine vision, heat, displacement, strain, humidity, particle ingress, etc. would be classified as Real Time, remote monitoring, which is already an accepted means of classifying this type of data. Other data types are less well defined, for example, data from industry reports, staff morale, organisational culture, but can be equally as important in safety evaluations.

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Accident CausationManagement ProblemsOperator ErrorsTime and Financial ConstraintsLack of trainingLack of understanding of operationCarelessnessEngineering ProblemsTiredness or drug impairmentDesign defectsProblems from the working cultureMaterial defectsEnvironmental EffectsManufacturing process errorsWeather and ambient conditionsPoor quality maintenancePlant layout interactionsInadequate analysis of experiencePotentially dangerous equipment or materials.

06/04/2016Copyright Digital Rail Ltd and NTTX Ltd5Neale,M , (2007). The Causes of Accidents, IMechE 2007, Published: 16 January 2007.

What are the main causes of railway accidents?

Accident Causes. A Study Based Upon research of 43 accidents [THE CAUSES OF ACCIDENTS IMechE 2007]From a study it can bee seen that there are always several causes for each accident. One of the causes in isolation would probably not resluted in an accident, but the combination of that cause with others has the potential for disaster.

These have a big overlap or mapping to our Data Taxonomy.

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Santiago de Compostela (24/7/2013)06/04/2016Copyright Digital Rail Ltd and NTTX Ltd6

Hatfield (17/10/2000)No speed control transition, only the driverDriver distraction,Train stability Passenger survivabilityRisks of gauge corner cracking not understoodLack of controls and proper inspection regimePoor contractor and project managementNot acting on audit reports

TheHatfield rail crashwas arailwayaccident on 17 October 2000, atHatfield, Hertfordshire, UK. Although the accident killed fewer than other accidents, it exposed the major stewardship shortcomings of the privatised national railway infrastructure companyRailtrackand the failings of the regulatory oversight which the company displayed in its initial years (principally a failure to ensure that the company had a sound knowledge of the condition of its assets) and ultimately triggered its partial renationalisation.

AGNERInterCity 225train bound forLeedshad leftLondon King's Crossat 12:10, and was travelling at approximately 115 miles per hour (185km/h) when it derailed south ofHatfield stationat 12:23. The primary cause of the accident was later determined to be the left-hand rail fracturing as the train passed over it. The accident killed four passengers and injured a further seventy.The leadingClass 91locomotive (91023) and the first two coaches remained upright and on the rails. All of the following coaches, and the trailingDriving Van Trailerwere derailed, and the train set separated into three sections. The restaurant coach, the eighth vehicle in the set, overturned onto its side and struck anoverhead linegantry after derailing, resulting in severe damage to the vehicle.Crash investigators identified the integrity and strength of theBritish Rail-designedMark 4coaches for protecting occupants. Coincidentally, the locomotive in the crash was also involved in theGreat Heck rail crash(where the leadingDriving Van Trailerhit a road vehicle on the track) a few months later.

A preliminary investigation found a rail had fragmented as trains passed and that the likely cause was "rolling contact fatigue" (defined as multiple surface-breaking cracks). Such cracks are caused by high loads where the wheels contact the rail.[2]Repeated loading causesfatiguecracks to grow. When they reach a critical size, the rail fails. Over 300 critical cracks were found in rails at Hatfield. The problem was known about before the accident, and replacement rails made available but never delivered to the correct location for installation. speed restrictionsRailtrack, got rid of the engineering knowledge of British Rail into maintenance contractors, had inadequate maintenance records and no accessible asset register. No knowledge of extent of problem and 1200 restriction imposed, the railway had a nervous breakdown. Road deaths increased

TheSantiago de Compostela derailmentoccurred on 24 July 2013, when anAlviahigh-speed train travelling fromMadridtoFerrol, in the north-west of Spain,derailedat high speed on a bend about 4 kilometres (2.5mi) outside of the railway station atSantiago de Compostela, Spain. Of the 222 people (218 passengers and 4 crew) aboard, around 140 were injured and 79 died.[2]The train'sdata recordershowed that it was travelling at about twice the posted speed limit of 80 kilometres per hour (50mph) when it entered a bend in the line. The crash was recorded on a track-side camera which shows all thirteen vehicles derailing and four overturning. On 28 July 2013, the train's driver Francisco Jos Garzn Amo was charged with 79 counts ofhomicide by professional recklessnessand an undetermined number of counts of causing injury by professional recklessness.[3]

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Platja de Castelldefels in Spain [15].

06/04/2016Copyright Digital Rail Ltd and NTTX Ltd7Crowding on platform station. High spirits and subsequent trespassing onto the railway line instead of using the underpass.5.a/c/ social media Texting the party locations, twitter 1.f Remote Monitoring (Vision System CCTV). Station vision system data. Could detect behavioural norms, crowd density and passengers moving over platform edge. 7.a. Location History GPS. For crowdingStation design, members of public claim that it was not clear where the exit was.2.d Station design 1.d Close Calls 5.a/c/ social media 3.d safety managementTime-table non-adherence allowed high speed train to pass through station at same time. Stopping train was 10 minutes late4.d timetable dataPolice were present as it was known that there would be a large crowd1.e. Emergency Services. Police communicationsIt was known either officially or to the public that the crossing of the track as a short cut was quite common.1.d Close Calls (From Diver or station staff)7.a Location Data, GPS. Will be used for level crossing safety in USA. Could regular crossing of line be indicated by phone GPS more generally

TheCastelldefels train accidentoccurred on 23June 2010 when a passenger train struck a group of people who were crossing therailwayon the level atPlatja de Castelldefels stationto the southwest ofBarcelona, inCatalonia,Spain. Twelve people were killed, and fourteen injured: all victims but oneRomanianwere ofLatin Americanorigin, with a majority fromEcuador.[1]The accident occurred onSt. John's Eve,[2][3][4]a major celebration in Spain and in several other European countries. The victims were apparently trying to get to the beach less than 200 metres (660ft) from the station, where a concert by Ecuadorian singerRubn de Reyhad been organized.[1]It was the worst railway accident in Spain since theValencia Metro derailmentin July 2006 killed 43 and injured 47 others.[5][6]

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BDNess?06/04/2016Copyright Digital Rail Ltd and NTTX Ltd8

The ELBowtie

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Enetrprise data Linked Bowtie.Good simple of model of accident causation.Easy to understand and explain.There are many other models such as Swiss Cheese, STAMP, etc .9

Flagging Heightened Risk06/04/2016Copyright Digital Rail Ltd and NTTX Ltd10

The All Seeing Eye: Knowledge and Visualisation

H|ow will we build the model and what type of machine learning do we need. What does normal look like and what does heightened risk look like.We are starting to build up our analyticsNeural Networks for predicting train derailment quotinetsAnalysis of close Call Information.Machine vision

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ConclusionsBD Ness depends upon complexityIntelligent algorithms will change both blue and white collar work, including safety management!The genie is out of the bottle!The models will just get better and better with time!www.elbowtie.com

06/04/2016Copyright Digital Rail Ltd and NTTX Ltd11Thanks for listening

We have looked at 3 accidents and tried to define their Bdness in terms of the 5 V. 11