san diego revpar: past, present & future 24 may 2010 bobby bowers smith travel research / str...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: SAN DIEGO RevPar: Past, Present & Future 24 May 2010 Bobby Bowers Smith Travel Research / STR Global](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070404/56649f355503460f94c5304a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
SAN DIEGO RevPar:Past, Present & Future
24 May 2010 Bobby Bowers
Smith Travel Research /
STR Global
![Page 2: SAN DIEGO RevPar: Past, Present & Future 24 May 2010 Bobby Bowers Smith Travel Research / STR Global](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070404/56649f355503460f94c5304a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
www.strglobal.com
615.824.8664 x3321
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![Page 3: SAN DIEGO RevPar: Past, Present & Future 24 May 2010 Bobby Bowers Smith Travel Research / STR Global](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070404/56649f355503460f94c5304a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeApril 2010 – Trailing 12 Months & Year-to-Date
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Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to April 2010
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
2.9%
-1.7%
-1.1%
- 4.8%
- 6.9%
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Total United StatesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to April 2010
-3.4%
-6.8%
-4.5%
-7.4%
-4.7%
0.1%
-9.6%
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Total United StatesRevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to April 2010
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
-10.5%
- 11.5%
-16.8%
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Top 25 Markets versus rest of U.S.Key Performance Indicators Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD
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Chain Scales
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STR Chain ScalesSelected Brands by Category
• Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont
• Upper Upscale – Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Sheraton
• Upscale – Cambria, Courtyard, Hilton Garden Inn
• Midscale with F&B – Ramada, Holiday Inn, Best Western
• Midscale no F&B – Comfort Inn, Fairfield Inn, H.I. Express
• Economy – Econolodge, Days Inn, Red Roof
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Chain ScalesSupply/Demand Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD
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Chain ScalesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD
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San Diego
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San DiegoKey Market Facts
• 464 hotels / 58k rooms
• 310 rooms under construction - 0.5%
• $1.6 billion annual room revenue
• 41% room revenue - Downtown
• 41% room revenue – Luxury / Upper Up
• 2009 ADR fell 20.2% - # 6 among top 25
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San DiegoKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeApril 2010 – Trailing 12 Months & Year-to-Date
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San DiegoWeekday / Weekend Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD
Weekends = Friday / Saturday
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San Diego – Luxury, Upper Upscale, Upper Tier IndependentsTransient / Group - Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD
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San DiegoKey Indicators - Percent ChangeMay 1 – 15, 2010
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San DiegoRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – January 2000 to April 2010
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
2.8%
-0.3%
-7.8% -8.4%
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San DiegoOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – January 2000 to April 2010
-8.2%
-3.0%
-11.9%
-3.7%
-11.4%
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San DiegoRevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – January 2000 to April 2010
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
-21.2%
- 14.6%
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San DiegoRevPAR - Monthly Percent ChangeJanuary 2008 – April 2010
20092008
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San DiegoOccupancy - Monthly Percent ChangeJanuary 2008 – April 2010
20092008
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San DiegoAverage Daily Rate - Monthly Percent ChangeJanuary 2008 – April 2010
20092008
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Key 15 MarketsRevPar Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD
Excludes Las Vegas
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Key 15 MarketsOccupancy Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD
Excludes Las Vegas
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Key 15 MarketsADR Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD
Excludes Las Vegas
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San Diego Chain Scales - Revenue Share (%)Twelve Months Ending March 2010
Annual San Diego revenue room = $1.6 billion
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San Diego - Chain ScalesOccupancy/ADR Percent Change2010 April YTD
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San Diego Sub Markets - Revenue Share (%)Twelve Months Ending April 2010
Annual San Diego revenue room = $1.6 billion
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San Diego Sub MarketsOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeApril 2010 YTD
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San Diego Sub MarketsOccupancy PercentApril 2010 YTD
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San Diego – Sub MarketsAverage Daily RateApril 2010 YTD
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Projections
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U.S. Economic OutlookBlue Chip Economic Indicators – May 2010
2009 2010F 2011F
Real GDP -2.4% +3.2% +3.1%
CPI -0.4% +2.0% +1.9%
Corporate Profits -3.8% +19.4% +8.1 %
Disp Personal Income +0.9% +1.3% +2.6%
Unemployment Rate 9.3% 9.6% 8.9%
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Total United StatesActive Development Pipeline - RoomsChange From Prior Year
April 2010 April 2009 Change % Chg
In Construction 77,404 170,242 -92,838 -54.5%
“Planned” Pipeline 289,676 363,326 -73,650 -20.3%
Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases
Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
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Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators Percent ChangeFull Year 2009 Actual & 2010 / 2011 Forecast
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San Diego, CA Market Supply & Demand Outlook 2008-2010F Annual vs. Prior Year
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San Diego, CA Market Occupancy, ADR, RevPAR Outlook 2008-2010F Annual vs. Prior Year
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San DiegoADR Percent Change vs. U.S. Inflation
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Takeaways
• Value is King – What’s distinctive about your product?
• Performance trough likely past
• Supply growth slowing
• Demand slowly improving
• Pricing conditions improving
• Moderate improvement 2010
• Meaningful growth anticipated 2011