sales forecasting using longitudinal data models
TRANSCRIPT
www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast
International Journal of Forecasting 20 (2004) 99–114
Sales forecasting using longitudinal data models
Edward W. Frees*, Thomas W. Miller
University of Wisconsin—Madison, School of Business, 975 University Avenue, Madison, WI 53706, USA
Abstract
This paper shows how to forecast using a class of linear mixed longitudinal, or panel, data models. Forecasts are derived as
special cases of best linear unbiased predictors, also known as BLUPs, and hence are optimal predictors of future realizations of
the response. We show that the BLUP forecast arises from three components: (1) a predictor based on the conditional mean of
the response, (2) a component due to time-varying coefficients, and (3) a serial correlation correction term. The forecasting
techniques are applicable in a wide variety of settings. This article discusses forecasting in the context of marketing and sales. In
particular, we consider a data set of the Wisconsin State Lottery, in which 40 weeks of sales are available for each of 50 postal
codes. Using sales data as well as economic and demographic characteristics of each postal code, we forecast sales for each
postal code.
D 2003 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Panel data models; Unobserved effects; Random coefficients; Heterogeneity
1. Introduction
Forecasting is an integral part of a marketing
manager’s role. Sales forecasts are important for
understanding market share and the competition,
future production needs, and the determinants of
sales, including promotions, pricing, advertising and
distribution.
Market researchers and business analysts are often
faced with the task of predicting sales. One approach
to prediction is to use cross-sectional data, working
with one point in time or aggregating over several
time periods. We search for variables that relate to
sales and use those variables as explanatory variables
in our models. Another approach is to work with
time series data, aggregating across sales territories
0169-2070/$ - see front matter D 2003 International Institute of Forecaste
doi:10.1016/S0169-2070(03)00005-0
* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (E.W. Frees),
[email protected] (T.W. Miller).
or accounts. We use past and current sales as a
predictor of future sales as we search for explanatory
variables that relate to sales.
Cross-sectional and simple time series approaches
do not make full use of data available to sales and
marketing managers. Typical sales data have a hier-
archical structure. They are longitudinal or panel
data, having both cross-sectional and time series
characteristics. They are cross-sectional because they
include observations from many cases, sales across
stores, territories or accounts; we say that these data
are differentiated across ‘space’. They are time series
data because they represent many points in time.
Longitudinal data methods are appropriate for these
types of data.
Longitudinal data methods have been widely
developed for understanding relationships among
variables in the social and biological sciences includ-
ing marketing research; see, for example, Ailawadi
and Neslin (1998) and Erdem (1996). But there is
rs. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
E.W. Frees, T.W. Miller / International Journal of Forecasting 20 (2004) 99–114100
relatively little literature available for forecasting
using longitudinal data methods. Some important
exceptions include Battese, Harter, and Fuller
(1988) and Baltagi and Li (1992).
By using information in both the cross section
(space) and time, we are able to provide forecasts
that are superior to traditional forecasts that use only
one dimension. We can forecast at the subject/micro
level, providing managers with additional informa-
tion for making both strategic and tactical decisions,
including decisions about sizing and capacity plan-
ning for manufacturing plants, pricing, marketing
promotions, advertising, sales organization and sales
processes.
The longitudinal data mixed model is introduced
in Section 2. Appendix A shows that the longitudi-
nal data mixed model can be represented as a special
case of the mixed linear model. Thus, there is a large
literature on estimation of the regression parameters
(B) as well as variance components; see, for exam-
ple, Searle, Casella, and McCulloch (1992) or Ver-
beke and Molenbergs (2000). In the data analysis
Section 4, we find it convenient to use the SAS
procedure for mixed linear models (PROC MIXED)
when estimating longitudinal data mixed models;
See Littell, Milliken, Stroup, and, Wolfinger (1996)
for an introduction from this perspective. Similar
procedures are available for S-PLUS (Pinheiro and
Bates, 2000).
Section 3 develops longitudinal data mixed model
forecasts using best linear unbiased predictors
(BLUPs). These predictors were introduced by Gold-
berger (1962) and developed by Harville (1976) in
the context of the mixed linear model. One goal of
this paper is to show how this type of predictor can
be used as an optimal forecast for longitudinal data
mixed models. This section is more technical and
many readers may wish to go directly to the Section
4 case study.
Specifically, Section 4 describes the case study
motivating the theoretical modeling work, forecasting
Wisconsin lottery sales. Here, we consider a data set
that contains forty weeks of lottery sales from a
random sample of 50 Wisconsin postal codes. Sec-
tion 4 shows how to specify an appropriate longitu-
dinal data mixed model and forecast using the
specified model.
Section 5 closes with some concluding remarks.
2. Longitudinal data mixed model
Longitudinal data models are regression models in
which repeated observations of subjects, such as
stores, are available. Using longitudinal data models,
we can provide detailed representations of character-
istics that are unique to each subject, thus accounting
for the classical misspecification problem of hetero-
geneity. Furthermore, the repeated observations over
time allow us to consider flexible models of the
evolution of responses, such as sales, known as the
dynamic structure of a model.
This article introduces forecasting for a broad
class of dynamic longitudinal data models that we
call the longitudinal data mixed model. As an
example of this class of models, consider the basic
two-way model
yit ¼ ai þ kt þ xitVbþ eit; t ¼ 1; . . . ; T ;
i ¼ 1; . . . ; n: ð2:1Þ
Baltagi (1988) and Koning (1989) developed forecasts
for this model. Here, yit denotes the response (sales) for
the ith subject, such as store, during the tth time period.
This is a model of balanced data in that we assume that
the same number, T, observations is available for each
of n stores. The quantity b ¼ ðb1; . . . ; bKÞV is a K � 1
vector of parameters that is common to all subjects and
xit ¼ ðxit;1; xit;2; . . . ; xit;KÞV is the corresponding vector
of covariates. The term ai is specific to subject i
yet is common to all time periods. This variable may
account for features that are unique, yet unobserved,
characteristics of each subject. The term kt is specificto the time period t yet is common to all stores.
This variable may account for common, yet unob-
served, events that affect sales. Both terms ai and ktare random variables and hence the model in Eq.
(2.1) is also known as the two-way error components
model.
The longitudinal data mixed model is considerably
more complex than the model in Eq. (2.1) because it
has the ability to capture many additional features of
the data that may be of interest to an analyst. We
focus on three aspects:
1. The longitudinal data mixed model does not
require balanced data. To illustrate, it is possible
to allow new subjects to enter the data by
E.W. Frees, T.W. Miller / International Journal of Forecasting 20 (2004) 99–114 101
allowing the first observation to be after time t=1.
Similarly, the last observation may be prior to
time t=T, allowing for early departure. Using an
underlying continuous stochastic process for the
disturbances, the model allows for unequally
spaced (in time) observations as well as missing
data.
2. The longitudinal data mixed model allows for
covariates associated with vector error compo-
nents. This allows one to handle broad classes of
mixed models, such as random coefficient
models.
3. The longitudinal data mixed model allows for
specification of dynamic aspects in two fashions,
through the error terms {eit} and through the
specification of {kt} as a stochastic process.
To illustrate the third point, in the traditional
longitudinal data mixed model, such as introduced
by Laird and Ware (1982), the dynamics are speci-
fied through the correlation structure of subject-
specific errors. For example, it is common to con-
sider an autoregressiveoforderp ðARðpÞÞ model for
the disturbances {eit} of the form:
ei;t ¼ /1ei;t�1 þ /2ei;t�2 þ . . .þ /pei;t�p þ fi;t:
ð2:2Þ
where {fi,t} are initially assumed to be identically
and independently distributed, mean zero, random
variables. Alternative structures are easily accommo-
dated; see Section 3 for further discussion.
Alternatively, we may model the dynamics using a
stochastic process for {kt}. For comparison, note that
Eq. (2.2) is a model of serial relationships at the
subject level, whereas a dynamic model of kt is one
that is common to all subjects. To illustrate the latter
specification, Section 3 considers a random walk
model for the common, time-specific components.
Beginning with the basic two-way model in Eq.
(2.1), more generally, we use
za;i;t;1ai;1 þ : : : þ za;i;t;qai;q ¼ zVa;i;tai ð2:3Þ
and
zk;i;t;1kt;1 þ : : : þ zk;i;t;rkt;r ¼ zVk;i;tkt: ð2:4Þ
With these terms, we define the longitudinal data
mixed model as
yit ¼ zVa;i;tai þ zVk;i;tlt þ xVitb þ eit;
t ¼ 1; . . . ; Ti; i ¼ 1; . . . ; n: ð2:5Þ
Here, ai ¼ ðai;1; . . . ; ai;qÞV is a q� 1 vector of sub-
ject-specific terms and za;i;t ¼ ðza;i;t;1; . . . ; za;i;t;qÞV is
the corresponding vector of covariates. Similarly, lt=
(kt;1; . . . ; kt;rÞVis a r � 1 vector of time-specific terms
and zk;i;t ¼ ðzk;i;t;1; . . . ; zk;i;t;rÞVis the corresponding
vector of covariates. We use the notation t = 1; . . . ; Tito indicate the unbalanced nature of the data. Without
the time-specific terms, this model was introduced by
Laird and Ware (1982) and is widely used in the
biological sciences (Diggle, Liang, & Zeger, 1994).
We have added the time-specific terms to provide
another mechanism for handling temporal, or dynam-
ic, patterns. We allow the time-specific term to be a
vector for symmetry with the subject-specific terms
and to handle some special cases described in Section
3 where we give more details of the assumptions of
these quantities.
3. Longitudinal data mixed model and forecasting
3.1. The longitudinal data mixed model
A more compact form of Eq. (2.5) can be given by
stacking over t . This yields a matrix form of the
longitudinal data mixed model
yi ¼ Za;iai þ Zk;il þ Xib þ ei;
i ¼ 1; . . . ; n: ð3:1Þ
This expression uses vectors of responses, yi ¼ ðyi1;yi2; . . . ; yiTiÞV, and of disturbances, eei ¼ ðei1; ei2; . . . ;eiTiÞV. Similarly, the matrices of covariates are
Xi ¼ xi1; xi2; . . . ; xiTið ÞV, of dimension Ti � K;Za;i ¼ðza,i;1; za;i;2; . . . ; za;i;TiÞV, of dimension Ti � q matrix
and
Z��;i ¼
z0��;i;1 0 : : : 0
0 z0��;i;2
: : : 0
..
. ...
. .. ..
.
0 0 : : : z0��;i;Ti
0BBB@
1CCCA: 0i
E.W. Frees, T.W. Miller / International Journal of Forecasting 20 (2004) 99–114102
of dimension Ti � rT , where 0i is a Ti � rðT � TiÞzero matrix. Finally, L=(L1,. . . , LT)Vis the rT � 1
vector of time-specific coefficients.
We assume that sources of variability, ei;ai and
lt , are mutually independent and mean zero. The
non-zero means are accounted for in the B para-
meters. The disturbances are independent bet-
ween subjects, yet we allow for serial correlation
and heteroscedasticity through the notation Var ei ¼Ri. Further, we assume that the subject-specific effects
{ai} are random with variance–covariance matrix D,
a q� q positive definite matrix. Time-specific effects
L have variance–covariance matrix Sk, a rT � rT
positive definite matrix. With this notation, we may
express the variance of each subject as Var yi ¼ Va;i+Zl;i SlZl;iV where
Va;i ¼ Za;i DZa;iV þ Ri: ð3:2Þ
3.2. Forecasting for the longitudinal data mixed
model
For forecasting, we wish to predict
yi;TiþL ¼ zVa;i;Ti þ L ai þ zVl;i;Ti þ L lTi þ L
þ ei;Ti þ L ð3:3Þ
for L lead time units in the future. We use results for
best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) for the mixed
linear model; see Robinson (1991) or Frees, Young,
and Luo (1999, 2001) for recent reviews. A BLUP is
the best linear combination of responses that is
unbiased and has the smallest mean square error over
the class of all linear, unbiased predictors. When using
available data to approximate random variables, such
as yi;TiþL , we use the term ‘prediction’ in lieu of
‘estimation.’
To calculate these predictors, we use the sum of
squares SZZ ¼P
ni¼1 ZVl ; iV
�1a;i Zl ; i. We summarize
the results in the following proposition. The details
of the derivation are in Appendix A.
Proposition. Consider the longitudinal data mixed
model described in Section 3.1. Then, the best linear
unbiased predictor L is
lBLUP ¼ SZZþ �1l
� �1Xni¼1
ZVl;iV�1a;i ei;GLS ð3:4Þ
þxVi;Ti þ Lb
�
with residuals ei,GLS=yi�XibGLS and bGLS is the
generalized least squares estimator of B. The best
linear unbiased predictors for ei and ai are,
ei;BLUP ¼ RiV�1a;i ei;GLS � Zl;ilBLUP
� ð3:5Þ
and
ai;BLUP ¼ DZ Va;iR�1i ei;BLUP: ð3:6Þ
Further, the best linear unbiased predictor of yi;TiþL is
yi;TiþL ¼ x Vi;TiþLbGLS þ z Va;i;TiþLai;BLUP
þzVl;iTiþLCovðlTiþL;lÞV �1l lBLUP
þCovðei;TiþL; eiÞVR�1i ei;BLUP: ð3:7Þ
Remarks. We may interpret the BLUP forecast as
arising from three components. The first component,
xVi;TiþLbGLS þ zVa;i;TiþLai;BLUP, is due to the condition-
al mean. The second component, zVk;i;TiþLCovðlTiþL;lÞV �1
l EBLUP , is due to time-varying coefficients.
The third component, Covðei;TiþL; eiÞVR�1i ei;BLUP, is a
serial correlation ‘correction term,’ analogous to a
result due to Goldberger (1962); see Example 1.2
below. An expression for the variance of the forecast
error, Var yi;TiþL � yi;TiþL
� , is available from the
authors.
3.3. Forecasting for special cases of the longitudinal
data mixed model
The Proposition provides sufficient structure to
calculate forecasts for a wide variety of models. Still,
it is instructive to interpret the BLUP forecast in a
number of special cases. We first consider the case of
independent and identically distributed time-specific
components {Lt}.
Example 1. (Random time-specific components). We
consider the special case where {Lt} are i.i.d. and
assume that Ti þ L > T . Thus, from Eq. (3.7), we
have the BLUP forecast of yi;TiþL is
yi;TiþL ¼ xVi;TiþLbGLS þ zVa;i;TiþL ai;BLUP
þ Covðei;TiþL; eiÞVR�1i ei;BLUP: ð3:8Þ
�
�
E.W. Frees, T.W. Miller / International Journal of Forecasting 20 (2004) 99–114 103
Suppose further that the disturbance terms are serially
uncorrelated so that Covðei;TiþL; eiÞ ¼ 0 . As an
immediate consequence of Eq. (3.8), we have
yi;TiþL ¼ xVi;TiþLbGLS þ zVa;i;TiþLai;BLUP:
We note that even when {lt } are i.i.d., the time-
specific components appear in ai,BLUP. Thus, the
presence of Lt changes the forecasts.
Example 1.1. (No time-specific components) We
now consider the case of no time-specific component
lt . Here, using Eq. (3.8), the BLUP forecast of
yi;TiþL is
yi;TiþL ¼ xVi;TiþLbGLS þ zVa;i;TiþLai;BLUP
þ Covðei;TiþL; eiÞVV�1a;i yi � XibGLSð Þ
where, from Eqs. (3.5) and (3.6), ai;BLUP ¼ DZVa;iV�1
a;i yi � XibGLSð Þ. To help further interpret this case,
consider:
Example 1.2. (AR(1) serial correlation) An interest-
ing special case that provides a great deal of intuition
is the case where we assume autoregressive of order 1
(AR(1)), serially correlated errors. For example,
Baltagi and Li (1991, 1992) considered this serially
correlated structure in the error components model
(q ¼ 1 ) in the balanced data case. More generally,
from Eq. (3.7), it can be checked that
yi;TiþL ¼ xVi;TiþLbGLS þ zVi;TiþLai;BLUP þ qLeiTi;BLUP:
Thus, the L step forecast equals conditional mean,
with the correction factor of qL times the most recent
BLUP residual. This result was originally given by
Goldberger (1962) in the context of ordinary
regression without random effects (that is, assuming
D ¼ 0).
Example 1.3. (Time-varying coefficients) Suppose
that the model is
yit ¼ xVit t þ eit;
where f tg are i.i.d. We can re-write this as:
yit ¼ zVk;i;tlt þ xitV þ eit;
B
B
B
where E t¼ ;lt ¼ t � and zk;i;t ¼ xi;t . With this
notation and Eq. (3.8), the forecast of yi;TiþL is
yi;TiþL ¼ xVi;TiþLbGLS.
Example 1.4. (Two-way error components model)
Consider the basic two-way model given in Eq.
(2.1). As in Example 1.2, we have that q ¼ r ¼ 1 and
D ¼ r2a and za;i;TiþL ¼ 1. Thus, from Eq. (3.8), we
have that the BLUP forecast of yi;TiþL is
yi;TiþL ¼ ai;BLUP þ x Vi;TiþLbGLS:
For additional interpretation, we assume balanced
data so that Ti ¼ T as in Baltagi (1988) and Koning
(1989); see also Baltagi (1995, p. 38). To ease
notation, define f ¼ Tr2a ðr2 þ Tr2
a�
. Then, it can be
shown that
yi;TiþL ¼ xVi;TiþLbGLS þ f
�yi � xVibGLSð Þ
� n 1� fð Þr2k
r2 þ n 1� fð Þr2k
y� xVbGLSð Þ :
Example 2. (Random walk model) Through minor
modifications, other temporal patterns of common, yet
unobserved, components can be easily included. For
this example, we assume that r ¼ 1; fktg are i.i.d., so
that the partial sum process {k1 þ k2 þ : : : þ kt} is a
random walk process. Thus, the model is
yit ¼ zVa;i;tai þ k1 þ k2 þ : : : þ kt þ xVit
þeit; t ¼ 1; . . . ; Ti; i ¼ 1; . . . ; n:
Stacking over t, this can be expressed in matrix form
as Eq. (3.1) where the Ti � T matrix Zl;i is a lower
triangular matrix of 1’s for the first Ti rows, and zero
elsewhere. That is,
Zl;i ¼
1 0 0 : : : 0 0 : : : 0
1 1 0 : : : 0 0 : : : 0
1 1 1 : : : 0 0 : : : 0
..
. ... ..
.O 0 0 : : : 0
1 1 1 : : : 1 0 : : : 0
0BBBB@
1CCCCA
1
Then, it can be shown that
yi;TiþL ¼ xVi;TiþLbGLS þXt
s¼1lt;BLUP
þzVa;i;TiþLai;BLUP
þCovðei;TiþL; qiÞVR�1i ei;BLUP:
BB BB
B
2
Ti
E.W. Frees, T.W. Miller / International Journal of Forecasting 20 (2004) 99–114104
4. Case study: Forecasting Wisconsin lottery sales
In this section, we forecast the sale of state
lottery tickets from 50 postal (ZIP) codes in Wis-
consin. Lottery sales are an important component of
state revenues. Accurate forecasting helps in the
budget planning process. Further, a model is useful
in assessing the important determinants of lottery
sales. Understanding the determinants of lottery
sales is useful for improving the design of the
lottery sales system and making decisions about
numbers of retail sales licenses to grant within
postal (ZIP) codes.
4.1. Sources and characteristics of data
State of Wisconsin lottery administrators provid-
ed weekly lottery sales data. We consider online
lottery tickets that are sold by selected retail estab-
lishments in Wisconsin. These tickets are generally
priced at $1.00, so the number of tickets sold
equals the lottery revenue. We analyze lottery sales
(ZOLSALES) over a 40-week period, April, 1998
through January, 1999, from 50 ZIP codes random-
ly selected from more than 700 ZIP codes within
the state of Wisconsin. We also consider the num-
ber of retailers within a ZIP code for each time
(NRETAIL).
A budding literature, such as Ashley, Liu, and
Chang (1999), suggests variables that influence
lottery sales. In developing models for lottery sales
we can draw upon this literature and anecdotal
evidence concerning the determinants of sales vol-
Table 1
Lottery, economic and demographic characteristics of 50 Wisconsin ZIP c
Lottery characteristics
ZOLSALES
NRETAIL
Economic and demographic characteristics
PERPERHH
MEDSCHYR
OOMEDHVL
PRCRENT
PRC55P
HHMEDAGE
CEMI
POPULAT
ume. Higher lottery jackpots lead to higher sales.
Ticket sales should be higher in areas with higher
population. Ticket sales should be higher in areas
better served by online ticket retailers; i.e. higher
numbers of retailers should lead to higher sales.
Lower income, less educated people may buy more
lottery tickets per capita than higher income, more
educated people. Senior citizens may buy more
lottery tickets per person than people in other age
groups. The thinking here is that seniors have more
free time to engage in recreational and gaming
activities.
Table 1 lists economic and demographic character-
istics that we consider in this analysis. Much of the
empirical literature on lotteries is based on annual data
that examine the state as the unit of analysis. In
contrast, we examine much finer economic units, the
ZIP code level, and weekly lottery sales. The eco-
nomic and demographic characteristics were abstract-
ed from the 1990 and 1995 United States census, as
organized and distributed by the Direct Marketing
Education Foundation. These variables summarize
characteristics of individuals within ZIP codes at a
single point in time and thus are not time-varying.
Table 2 summarizes the economic and demograph-
ic characteristics of 50 Wisconsin ZIP codes. To
illustrate, for the population variable (POPULAT),
we see that the smallest ZIP code contained 280
people whereas the largest contained 39 098. The
average, over 50 ZIP codes, was 9311.04. Table 2
also summarizes average online sales and average
number of retailers. Here, these are averages over 40
weeks. To illustrate, we see that the 40-week average
odes
Online lottery sales to individual consumers
Number of listed retailers
Persons per household times 10
Median years of schooling times 10
Median home value in $100 s for owner-occupied homes
Percent of housing that is renter occupied
Percent of population that is 55 or older
Household median age
Estimated median household income, in $100 s
Population
Table 2
Summary statistics of lottery, economic and demographic characteristics of 50 Wisconsin ZIP codes
Variable Mean Median Standard Minimum Maximum
deviation
Average 6494.83 2426.41 8103.01 189 33 181
ZOLSALES
Average 11.94 6.36 13.29 1 68.625
NRETAIL
PERPERHH 27.06 27 2.09 22 32
MEDSCHYR 126.96 126 5.51 122 159
OOMEDHVL 570.92 539 183.73 345 1200
PRCRENT 24.68 24 9.34 6 62
PRC55P 39.70 40 7.51 25 56
HHMEDAGE 48.76 48 4.14 41 59
CEMI 451.22 431 97.84 279 707
POPULAT 9311.04 4405.5 11 098 280 39 098
E.W. Frees, T.W. Miller / International Journal of Forecasting 20 (2004) 99–114 105
of online sales was as low as $189 and as high as
$33 181.
It is possible to examine cross-sectional relation-
ships between sales and economic/demographic char-
acteristics. For example, Fig. 1 shows a positive
relationship between average online sales and popu-
lation. Further, the ZIP code corresponding to city of
Kenosha, Wisconsin has unusually large average
sales for its population size. However, cross-sectional
relationships alone, such as correlations and plots
Fig. 1. Scatter plot of average lottery sales versus population size.
similar to Fig. 1, do not show dynamic patterns of
sales.
Fig. 2 is a multiple time series plot of logarithmic
(weekly) sales over time. Here, each line traces the
sales patterns for a ZIP code. This figure shows the
increase in sales for most ZIP codes, at approximately
weeks eight and 18. For both time points, the jackpot
prize of one online game, PowerBall, grew to an
amount in excess of $100 million. Interest in lotteries,
and sales, increases dramatically when jackpot prizes
Sales for Kenosha are unusually large for its population size.
Fig. 2. Multiple time series plot of logarithmic (base 10) lottery sales.
E.W. Frees, T.W. Miller / International Journal of Forecasting 20 (2004) 99–114106
reach large amounts. Moreover, Fig. 2 suggests a
dynamic pattern that is common to all ZIP codes.
Specifically, logarithmic sales for each ZIP code are
relatively stable with the same approximate level of
variability.
Another form of the response variable to consider
is the proportional, or percentage, change. Specifical-
ly, define the percentage change to be
pchangeit ¼ 100salesit
salesi;t�1
� 1
� : ð4:1Þ
A multiple times series plot of the percentage changes,
not displayed here, shows autocorrelated serial pat-
terns. We consider models of this transform of the
series in the following subsection on model selection.
4.2. In-sample model specification
This subsection considers the specification of a
model, a necessary component prior to forecasting.
We decompose model specification criteria into two
components, in-sample and out-of-sample criteria. To
this end, we partition the data into two subsamples:
we use the first 35 weeks to develop alternative
models and estimate parameters, and we use the last
5 weeks to ‘predict’ our held-out sample. The choice
of 5 weeks for the out-of-sample validation is some-
what arbitrary; it was made with the rationale that
lottery officials consider it reasonable to try to predict
5 weeks of sales based on 35 weeks of historical sales
data.
Our first forecasting model is an ordinary regres-
sion model
yit ¼ a þ xVit þ eit;
where the intercept is common to all subjects, also
known as a pooled cross-sectional model. The model
fits the data well; the coefficient of determination turns
out to be R2 ¼ 69:6%: The estimated regression coef-
ficients appear in Table 3. From the corresponding t-
statistics, we see that each variable is statistically
significant.
Our second forecasting model is an error compo-
nents model
yit ¼ ai þ xVit þ eit;
B
B
Table 3
Lottery model coefficient estimates
Variable Pooled cross-sectional Error components Error components model
model model with AR(1) term
Parameter t-Statistic Parameter t-Statistic Parameter t-Statistic
estimate estimate estimate
Intercept 13.821 10.32 18.096 2.47 15.255 2.18
PERPERHH �0.108 �6.77 �0.129 �1.45 �0.115 �1.36
MEDSCHYR �0.082 �11.90 �0.108 �2.87 �0.091 �2.53
OOMEDHVL 0.001 5.19 0.001 0.50 0.001 0.81
PRCRENT 0.032 8.51 0.026 1.27 0.030 1.53
PRC55P �0.070 �5.19 �0.073 �0.98 �0.071 �1.01
HHMEDAGE 0.118 5.64 0.119 1.02 0.120 1.09
CEMI 0.004 8.18 0.005 1.55 0.004 1.58
POP/1000 0.057 9.41 0.121 4.43 0.080 2.73
NRETAIL 0.021 5.22 �0.027 �1.56 0.004 0.20
Var a (r2a) 0.607 0.528
Var e (r2e ) 0.700 0.263 0.279
AR(1) corr (q) 0.555 25.88
AIC 4353.25 2862.74 2269.83
Based on in-sample data of n=50 ZIP codes and T=35 weeks. The response is (natural) logarithmic sales.
E.W. Frees, T.W. Miller / International Journal of Forecasting 20 (2004) 99–114 107
where the intercept varies according to subject. Table
3 provides parameter estimates and the corresponding
t-statistics, as well as estimates of the variance com-
ponents, r2a and r2
e. As is common in longitudinal data
analysis, allowing intercepts to vary by subject can
result in regression coefficients for other variables
becoming statistically insignificant.
When comparing this model to the pooled cross-
sectional model, we may use the Lagrange multiplier
test described in Baltagi (1995, Chapter 3). The test
statistic turns out to be TS ¼ 11; 395:5, indicating that
the error components model is strongly preferred to
the pooled cross-sectional model. Another piece of
evidence is Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). The
smaller this criterion, the more preferred is the model.
Table 3 shows that the error components model is
preferred compared to the pooled cross-sectional
model based on the smaller value of the AIC statistic.
To assess further the adequacy of the error compo-
nents model, we calculated residuals from the fitted
model and examined diagnostic tests and graphs. One
such diagnostic graph, not displayed here, is a plot of
residuals versus lagged residuals. This graph shows a
strong relationship between residuals and lagged
residuals which we can represent using an autocorre-
lation structure for the error terms. The graph also
shows a strong pattern of clustering corresponding to
weeks with large PowerBall jackpots. A variable that
captures information about the size of PowerBall
jackpots would help in developing a model of lottery
sales. However, for forecasting purposes, we require
one or more variables that anticipates large PowerBall
jackpots. That is, because the size of PowerBall
jackpots is not known in advance, variables that proxy
the event of large jackpots are not suitable for fore-
casting models. These variables could be developed
through a separate forecasting model of PowerBall
jackpots.
Other types of random effects models for fore-
casting lottery sales could also be considered. To
illustrate, we also fit a more parsimonious version of
the AR(1) version of the error components model;
specifically, we fit this model, deleting those varia-
bles with insignificant t-statistics. It turned out that
this fitted model did not perform substantially better
in terms of overall model fit statistics such as AIC.
We explore alternative transforms of the response
when examining a held-out sample in the following
subsection.
Table 4 reports the estimation results from fitting
the two-way error components model in Eq. (2.1),
with and without an AR(1) term. For comparison
Table 4
Lottery model coefficient estimates
Variable One-way error components Two-way error Two-way error components
model with AR(1) term components model model with AR(1) term
Parameter t-Statistic Parameter t-Statistic Parameter t-Statistic
estimate estimate estimate
Intercept 15.255 2.18 16.477 2.39 15.897 2.31
PERPERHH �0.115 �1.36 �0.121 �1.43 �0.118 �1.40
MEDSCHYR �0.091 �2.53 �0.098 �2.79 �0.095 �2.70
OOMEDHVL 0.001 0.81 0.001 0.71 0.001 0.75
PRCRENT 0.030 1.53 0.028 1.44 0.029 1.49
PRC55P �0.071 �1.01 �0.071 �1.00 �0.072 �1.02
HHMEDAGE 0.120 1.09 0.118 1.06 0.120 1.08
CEMI 0.004 1.58 0.004 1.59 0.004 1.59
POP/1000 0.001 2.73 0.001 5.45 0.001 4.26
NRETAIL 0.004 0.20 �0.009 �1.07 �0.003 �0.26
Var aðr2aÞ 0.528 0.564 0.554
Var eðr2e Þ 0.279 0.022 0.024
Var kðr2kÞ 0.241 0.241
AR(1) corr ðqÞ 0.555 25.88 0.518 25.54
AIC 2270.97 �1109.61 �1574.02
Based on in-sample data of n=50 ZIP codes and T=35 weeks. The response is (natural) logarithmic sales.
E.W. Frees, T.W. Miller / International Journal of Forecasting 20 (2004) 99–114108
purposes, the fitted coefficient for the one-way
model with an AR(1) term are also presented in
this table. As in Table 3, we see that the model
selection criterion, AIC, indicates that the more
complex two-way models provide an improved fit
compared to the one-way models. As with the one-
way models, the autocorrelation coefficient is statis-
tically significant even with the time-varying pa-
rameter kt. In each of the three models in Table 4,
only the population size (POP) and education levels
(MEDSCHYR) have a significant effect on lottery
sales.
4.3. Out-of-sample model specification
This subsection compares the ability of several
competing models to forecast values outside of the
sample used for model parameter estimation. As in
Section 4.2, we use the first 35 weeks of data to
estimate model parameters. The remaining 5 weeks
are used to assess the validity of model forecasts. For
each model, we compute forecasts of lottery sales for
weeks 36 through 40, by ZIP code level, based on the
first 35 weeks. Denote these forecast values as
ZOLSALESi;35þL , for L=1 to 5. We summarize the
accuracy of the forecasts through two statistics, the
mean absolute error
MAE ¼ 1
5n
Xni¼1
X5L¼1
ZOLSALESi;35þL
��
�ZOLSALESi;35þLj ð4:2Þ
and the mean absolute percentage error
MAPE ¼ 100
5n
Xni¼1
X5L¼1
�ZOLSALESi;35þL � ZOLSALESi;35þL
�� ��ZOLSALESi;35þL
ð4:3Þ
The several competing models include the models
of logarithmic sales summarized in Tables 3 and 4.
Because the autocorrelation term appears to be
highly statistically significant in Table 3, we also
fit a pooled cross-sectional model with an AR(1)
term. Further, we fit two modifications of the error
components model with the AR(1) term. In the first
case we use lottery sales as the response (not the
logarithmic version) and in the second case we use
percentage change of lottery sales, defined in
E.W. Frees, T.W. Miller / International Jour
Eq. (4.1), as the response. Finally, we also consider a
basic fixed effects model,
yit ¼ ai þ eit;
with an AR(1) error structure. For fixed effects
models, the term ai is treated as a fixed parameter,
not a random variable. Because this parameter is
time-invariant, it is not possible to include our time-
invariant demographic and economic characteristics
as part of the fixed effects model.
Table 5 presents the model forecast criteria in Eqs.
(4.2) and (4.3) for eachmodel.We first note that Table 5
re-confirms the point that the AR(1) term improves
each model. Specifically, for the pooled cross-section-
al, as well as one-way and two-way error components
models, the version with an AR(1) term outperforms
the analogous model without this term. Table 5 also
shows that the one-way error components model dom-
inates the pooled cross-sectional model. This was also
anticipated by our pooling test, an in-sample test
procedure. Somewhat surprisingly, the two-way model
did not perform as well as the one-way model.
Table 5 confirms that the error components
model with an AR(1) term with logarithmic sales
as the response is the preferred model, based on
either the MAE or MAPE criterion. The next best
model was the corresponding fixed effects model. It
is interesting to note that the models with sales as
the response outperformed the model with percent-
age change as the response based on the MAE
criterion, although the reverse is true based on the
MAPE criterion.
Table 5
Out-of-sample forecast comparison of nine alternative models
Model Model res
Pooled cross-sectional model Logarithm
Pooled cross-sectional model with AR(1) Logarithm
term
Error components model Logarithm
Error components model with AR(1) term Logarithm
Error components model with AR(1) term Sales
Error components model with AR(1) term Percentag
Fixed effects model with AR(1) term Logarithm
Two-way error components model Logarithm
Two-way error components model with Logarithm
AR(1) term
4.4. Forecasts
We now forecast using the model that provides the
best fit to the data, the error components model with
an AR(1) term. The forecasts and forecast intervals for
this model are a special case of the results for the more
general longitudinal data mixed model, given in Eqs.
(3.6) and Appendix A, respectively.
Fig. 3 displays the forecasts and forecast intervals.
Here, we use T ¼ 40 weeks of data to estimate
parameters and provide forecasts for L ¼ 5 weeks.
Calculation of the parameter estimates, point fore-
casts and forecast intervals were done using loga-
rithmic sales as the response. Then, point forecasts
and forecast intervals were converted to dollars to
display the ultimate impact of the model forecasting
strategy.
Fig. 3 shows the forecasts and forecast intervals for
two selected postal codes. The lower forecast repre-
sents a postal from Dane County whereas the upper
represents a postal code from Milwaukee. For each
postal code, the middle line represents the point
forecast and the upper and lower lines represent the
bounds on a 95% forecast interval. When calculating
this interval, we applied a normal curve approxima-
tion, using the point forecast plus or minus 1.96 times
the standard error. Compared to the Dane County
code, the Milwaukee postal code has higher forecast
sales. Thus, although standard errors on a logarithmic
scale are about the same as Dane County, this higher
point forecast leads to a larger interval when rescaled
to dollars.
nal of Forecasting 20 (2004) 99–114 109
ponse Model forecast criteria
MAE MAPE
ic sales 3012.68 83.41
ic sales 680.64 21.19
ic sales 1318.05 33.85
ic sales 571.14 18.79
1409.61 140.25
e change 1557.82 48.70
ic sales 584.55 19.07
ic sales 1257.21 33.14
ic sales 1202.97 32.47
Fig. 3. Forecast intervals for two selected postal codes. For each postal code, the middle line corresponds to point forecasts for 5 weeks. The
upper and lower lines correspond to endpoints of 95% prediction intervals.
E.W. Frees, T.W. Miller / International Journal of Forecasting 20 (2004) 99–114110
4.5. Sales and marketing applications
The lottery sales example has a structure similar
to many sales and marketing applications. Sales data
are organized in time—days, weeks, months, or
years. Sales data are organized in space—country,
geographical region, sales areas or districts. We
model sales volume as a function of market con-
ditions and the ‘marketing mix.’ Market conditions
include information about competitors, substitute
products, and economic climate. ‘Marketing mix’
refers to the actions that firms take with regard to
product features, pricing, distribution, advertising,
and promotion. Like sales response, most explanato-
ry variables vary in time and space.
Consider the case of supermarket scanner data
collected weekly from thousands of stores across the
United States. To forecast sales volume for a partic-
ular product, say a frozen dinner, in a particular
store, researchers build upon observed sales volumes
for all products in the frozen dinner category. Prod-
uct price, discount coupon, promotion, and advertis-
ing data would be collected, and appropriate
explanatory variables defined. In building a forecast-
ing model for a food manufacturer or retail chain, a
researcher might combine data across stores within
cities and across products within brands. Models at
various levels of aggregation can be built from
longitudinal data. Leeflang, Wittink, Wedell, and
Naert (2000) and Hanssens, Parsons, and Schultz
(2001) discuss traditional time series and regression
approaches to scanner data analysis. Longitudinal
data mixed models, as discussed in this paper,
represent a set of flexible, dynamic models for sales
and marketing applications of this type.
5. Summary and concluding remarks
This article considers the longitudinal data mixed
model, a class of models that extends the traditional
two-way error components longitudinal data models
E.W. Frees, T.W. Miller / International Journal of Forecasting 20 (2004) 99–114 111
yet still falls with the framework of a mixed linear
model. In particular, the theory allows us to consider
unbalanced data, slopes that may vary by subject or
time and parametric forms of heteroscedasticity as
well as serial correlation. Forecasts for these models
are derived as special cases of best linear unbiased
predictors, BLUPs, together with the variance of the
forecast errors.
The theory provides optimal predictions assuming
that the variance components are known. If estima-
tors replace the true variance components, then the
mean squared error of the predictors increases. The
magnitude of this increase, as well as approximate
adjustments, have been studied by Kackar and Har-
ville (1984), Harville and Jeske (1992) and Baillie
and Baltagi (1999).
The theory is substantially broader than prevailing
forecasting practice. To illustrate how this theory may
be applied, this article considers forecasting Wisconsin
lottery sales. We examined a variety of model specifi-
cations to arrive at a simple one-way error components
with an AR(1) term. This simplemodel provides a good
fit to the data. In subsequent work, we intend to
investigate more complex models in order to realize
more useful forecasts of future sales. One direction that
subsequent research may take is to examine longitudi-
nal data models with spatial, as well as time-series,
error components.
Appendix A. Inference for the longitudinal data
mixed model
To express the model more compactly, we use
the mixed linear model specification. Thus, define
y ¼ yV1; yV2; . . . ; yVnð ÞV; e ¼ eV1 ; eV2 ; . . . ; eVnð ÞV; a ¼aV1;aV2 ; . . . ;aVnð ÞV,
X ¼
X1
X2
X3
..
.
Xn
0BBBBBBBBBBBB@
1CCCCCCCCCCCCA
; Zl ¼
ZE;1
ZE;2
ZE;3
..
.
ZE;n
0BBBBBBBBBBBB@
1CCCCCCCCCCCCA
and
Za ¼
Za;1 0 0 : : : 0
0 Za;2 0 : : : 0
0 0 Za;3: : : 0
..
. ... ..
.O ..
.
0 0 0 : : : Za;n
0BBBBB@
1CCCCCA:
With these choices, the longitudinal data mixed
model in Eq. (2.1) can be expressed as a mixed linear
model, given by
y ¼ Zaaþ Zll þ Xb þ e: ðA:0Þ
Further, we also use the notation R=Var
E=blockdiag(R1,. . ., Rn) and note that Var A=In �D. With this notation, we may express the variance–
covariance matrix of y as
Var y ¼ V ¼ ZaðIn � DÞZaVþ ZEREZEVþ R: ðA:1Þ
Moreover, define
Va ¼ R þ ZaðIn � DÞZaV
¼ blockdiagðVa;1; . . . ;Va;nÞ;
where Va;i is defined in Eq. (3.2). With this notation,
we use standard matrix algebra results to write
V�1 ¼ ðVa þ ZEREZEVÞ�1
¼ V�1a � V�1
a ZEðZEVV�1a ZE
þ R�1E Þ�1ZEVV�1
a : ðA:2Þ
For best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) in the
mixed linear model, suppose that we observe an N � 1
random vector y with mean E y=X B and variance Var
y=V. The generic goal is to predict a random variable
w, such that E w ¼ cVB and Var w ¼ r2w. Denote the
covariance between w and y as Cov(w, y). The BLUP
of w is
wBLUP ¼ cVbGLS þ Covðw; yÞVV�1 y � XbGLSð Þ
ðA:3Þ
¼ CovðceVei; yÞVV�1a ðy � XbGLSÞ
� CovðceVei; yÞVV�1a ZllBLUP
¼ ceVRiV�1a ;i yi � XibGLSð Þ � Zk;ikBLUP
� : ðA:6Þ
E.W. Frees, T.W. Miller / International Journal of Forecasting 20 (2004) 99–114112
where bGLS ¼ XVV�1X� �1
XVV�1y. The mean square
error is
VarðwBLUP � wÞ ¼ c V� Covðw; yÞVV�1X�
� XVV�1X� �1
c V� Covðw; yÞVV�1X�
V
� Covðw; yÞVV�1Covðw; yÞ þ r2w: ðA:4Þ
Proof of the Proposition
We first derive the BLUP predictor of L. Let cL be
an arbitrary vector of constants and setw=cLVL. For thischoice of w, we have ;=0. From Eq. (A.2), we have
clVlBLUP ¼ clVCovðl;ZllÞVV�1ðy� XbGLSÞ:
Using Eq. (A.2) and SZZ ¼Pni¼1
ZVl ;i V�1a;iZl;i ¼
ZVlV�1a Zl, we have
RlZlVV�1 ¼ RlZlVðV�1a � V�1
a ZlðZlVV�1a Zl
þ R�1l Þ�1ZlVV
�1a Þ
¼ RlðI � SZZðSZZ þ R�1l Þ�1ÞZlVV�1
a
¼ ðSZZ þ R�1l Þ�1
ZlVV�1a :
Thus,
kBLUP ¼ RlZlVV�1ðy � XbGLSÞ
¼ ðSZZ þ R�1l Þ�1ZlVV�1
a ðy�XbGLSÞ; ðA:5Þ
which is sufficient for Eq. (3.4).
To derive the BLUP predictor of ei , let ce be an
arbitrary vector of constants and set w=ceV ei . With
; = 0, we have
CovðceVei; yjÞ ¼ceVRi for j ¼ i
0 for j p i:
�
Using this, Eqs. (A.2) and (A.3) yield
ceVei;BLUP ¼ CovðceVei; yÞVV�1ðy � XbGLSÞ
¼ CovðceVei; yÞVV�1a ðy � XbGLSÞ
� CovðceVei; yÞVV�1a ZlðSZZ
þ R�1l Þ�1ZlVV�1
a ðy � XbGLSÞ
Using Wald’s device, we have the BLUP of ei,given in Eq. (3.5).
The derivation for the BLUP of Ai is similar. Let
cA be an arbitrary vector of constants and set w=cAVAi.
This yields
CovðcaVei; yjÞ ¼caVRi for j ¼ i
0 for j p i:
�
Using this, Eqs. (A.2), (A.3) and (3.4), we have
caVai;BLUP ¼ CovðcaVai; yÞVV�1ðy � XbGLSÞ
¼ CovðcaVai; yÞVV�1a ðy � XbGLSÞ
� CovðcaVai; yÞVV�1a ZkðSZZ
þ R�1l Þ�1
ZlVV�1a ðy� XbGLSÞ
¼ cVaDZVa;iV�1a;i ei;GLS � Zl; iBLUP�
; ðA:7Þ
which is sufficient for Eq. (3.6).
Now, to calculate the BLUP forecast of yi;TiþL in
Eq. (3.7), we wish to predict w ¼ yi;TiþL . With this
choice of w, we have ; ¼ xi;TiþL. Now, we examine
Covðyi;TiþL; yÞ ¼ CovðzVa;i;TiþLai; yÞ
þ CovðzVl ;i ; Ti þL lTiþL; yÞ
þ Covðei;TiþL; yÞ: ðA:8Þ
Using Eqs. (A.0) and (A.5), we have
CovðzVl; i; Ti þ LlTiþL; yÞVV�1 y � XbGLSð Þ
¼ zVl; i; TiþLCovðlTiþL;lVÞZVlV�1 y � XbGLSð Þ
¼ zVl; i; Ti þ LCovðlTiþL;lVÞR�1l lBLUP :
ðA:9Þ
Similarly, from Eq. (A.7), we have
CovðzVa;i;TiþLai; yÞVV�1 y � XbGLSð Þ
¼ zVa;i;TiþLai;BLUP ðA:10Þ
E.W. Frees, T.W. Miller / International Journal of Forecasting 20 (2004) 99–114 113
and, similar to Eq. (A.6), we have
Covðei;TiþL; yÞVV�1 y � XbGLSð Þ
¼ Covðei;TiþL; eiÞVR�1i ei;BLUP: ðA:11Þ
Thus, from Eqs. (A.3), (3.3) and (A.8)–(A.11), the
BLUP forecast of yi;TiþL is
yi;TiþL ¼ xVi;TiþLbGLS
þ Covðyi;TiþL; yÞVV�1 y � XbGLSð Þ
¼ xVi;TiþLbGLS
þ z Vl;i;TiþL CovðlTiþL;lÞVS�1l lBLUP
þ z Va ; i; Ti þ Lai;BLUP
þ Covðei;TiþL; eiÞVR�1i ei;BLUP;
as in Eq. (3.7). This is sufficient for the proof of the
Proposition.
References
Ailawadi, K. L., & Neslin, S. A. (1998). The effect of promotion on
consumption: Buying more and consuming it faster. Journal of
Marketing Research, 35, 390–398.
Ashley, T., Liu, Y., & Chang, S. (1999). Estimating net lottery
revenues for states. Atlantic Economics Journal, 27, 170–178.
Baillie, R. T., & Baltagi, B. H. (1999). Prediction from the regres-
sion model with one-way error components. In Hsiao, C.,
Lahiri, K., Lee, L., & Pesaran, M. H. (Eds.), Analysis of panels
and limited dependent variable models. Cambridge, UK: Cam-
bridge University Press.
Baltagi, B. H. (1988). Prediction with a two-way error component
regression model. Problem 88.1.1. Econometric Theory, 4,
171.
Baltagi, B. H. (1995). Econometric analysis of panel data.
NY: Wiley.
Baltagi, B. H., & Li, Q. (1991). A transformation that will circum-
vent the problem of autocorrelation in an error-component
model. Journal of Econometrics, 48(3), 385–393.
Baltagi, B. H., & Li, Q. (1992). Prediction in the one-way error
component model with serial correlation. Journal of Forecast-
ing, 11, 561–567.
Battese, G. E., Harter, R. M., & Fuller, W. A. (1988). An error
components model for prediction of county crop areas using
survey and satellite data. Journal of the American Statistical
Association, 83, 28–36.
Diggle, P. J., Liang, K. -Y., & Zeger, S. L. (1994). Analysis of
longitudinal data. Oxford University Press.
Erdem, T. (1996). A dynamic analysis of market structure based on
panel data. Marketing Science, 15, 359–378.
Frees, E. W., Young, V., & Luo, Y. (1999). A longitudinal data
analysis interpretation of credibility models. Insurance: Mathe-
matics and Economics, 24, 229–247.
Frees, E. W., Young, V., & Luo, Y. (2001). Credibility ratemaking
using panel data models. North American Actuarial Journal,
5(4), 24–42.
Goldberger, A. S. (1962). Best linear unbiased prediction in the
generalized linear regression model. Journal of the American
Statistical Association, 57, 369–375.
Hanssens, D. M., Parsons, L. J., & Schultz, R. L. (2001). Market
response models: econometric and time series analysis (2nd
edition). Boston: Kluwer.
Harville, D. (1976). Extension of the Gauss–Markov theorem to
include the estimation of random effects. Annals of Statistics, 2,
384–395.
Harville, D., & Jeske, J. R. (1992). Mean square error of estimation
or prediction under a general linear model. Journal of the Amer-
ican Statistical Association, 87, 724–731.
Kackar, R. N., & Harville, D. (1984). Approximations for standard
errors of estimators of fixed and random effects in mixed linear
models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79,
853–862.
Koning, R. H. (1989). Prediction with a two-way error component
regression model. Solution 88.1.1. Econometric Theory, 5, 175.
Laird, N. M., & Ware, J. H. (1982). Random-effects models for
longitudinal data. Biometrics, 38, 963–974.
Leeflang, P. S. H., Wittink, D. R., Wedel, M., & Naert, P. A. (2000).
Building models for marketing decisions. Boston: Kluwer.
Littell, R. C., Milliken, G. A., Stroup, W. W., & Wolfinger,
R. D. (1996). SAS system for mixed models. Cary, North
Carolina: SAS Institute.
Pinheiro, J. C., & Bates, D. M. (2000). Mixed-effects models in S
and S-PLUS. New York: Springer.
Robinson, G. K. (1991). The estimation of random effects. Statis-
tical Science, 6, 15–51.
Searle, S. R., Casella, G., & McCulloch, C. E. (1992).
Variance components. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Verbeke, G., & Molenbergs, G. (2000). Linear mixed models for
longitudinal data. New York: Springer–Verlag.
Biographies: Edward W. (Jed) FREES is a Professor of Business
and Statistics at the University of Wisconsin—Madison and is
holder of the Fortis Health Professorship of Actuarial Science. He
is a Fellow of both the Society of Actuaries and the American
Statistical Association. Professor Frees is a frequent contributor to
scholarly journals. His papers have won several awards for quality,
including the Actuarial Education and Research Fund’s annual
Halmstad Prize for best paper published in the actuarial literature
(three times). Professor Frees currently is the Editor of the North
American Actuarial Journal and an Associate Editor for Insurance:
Mathematics and Economics. The National Science Foundation
(Grant Number SES-0095343) provided funding to support this
research.
E.W. Frees, T.W. Miller / International Journal of Forecasting 20 (2004) 99–114114
Thomas W. MILLER is Director of the A.C. Nielsen Center for
Marketing Research at the University of Wisconsin—Madison. He
holds graduate degrees in psychology (PhD, psychometrics) and
statistics (MS) from the University of Minnesota and in business
(MBA) and economics (MS) from the University of Oregon. An
expert in applied statistics and modeling, Tom has designed and
conducted numerous empirical and simulation studies comparing
traditional and data-adaptive methods. Tom’s current research
includes explorations of online research methods and studies of
consumer life-styles, choices and uses of technology products. He
won the David K. Hardin Award for the best paper in Marketing
Research in 2001.