MIP Unit meeting, 17th October 2014

SAFEBOOK 2014 exercise by Dario Buono, Julien Bollati

Outline

• Safebook exercise• Timetable• Preliminary results• State of play of benchmarking

Aims

• Safebook results will be used for:

• Internal use: SA footnotes, MIP metadata references, MIP statistics explained

• Ranking/labelling/clustering MIP scoreboard per each headline/MS

ClosedTask Name Duration Resource Initials Start Finish Milestone % Work

Complete

Preparation of DM document 10 days DB 15 March 2014 27 March 2014 No 100%

DM endorsement 12 days DB 14 April 2014 29 April 2014 Yes 100%

Internal review of MIP Quality Safebook template questions 30 days DB,IJ,MIP QT 30 April 2014 10 June 2014 No 100%

Presentation to MIP TF 1 day DB,IJ 23 May 2014 23 May 2014 Yes 100%

Peer review of questions by MIP Steering Group 16 days MIP SG 11 June 2014 02 July 2014 No 100%

Presentation to MIP SG 1 day DB,IJ 24 June 2014 24 June 2014 No 100%

Setting of IPM version 8 days DB 09 July 2014 18 July 2014 Yes 100%

Reading of available inventories and quality reports 85 days MIP QT 12 May 2014 September 2014 No 100%

Re-run for the 28 EU * 11 headlines 15 days MIP QT 27 August 2014 16 September 2014 No 90%

Preliminary results to be sent to MIP SG for benchmarking 5 days MIP QT 17 September 30 September NO 100%

Benchmarking exercise 6 days MIP QT,MIP SG 30 September 2014 08 October 2014 No 100%

Ongoing and future steps

Task Name Duration Resource Initials Start Finish Milestone

% Work Complete

Benchmarking exercise 6 days MIP QT,MIP SG 30 September 2014 08 October 2014 No 90%

Director debriefing 1 day DB, JB, IJ 17 October 2014 17 October 2014 No 50%

Preparation of draft text for SA 5 days MIP QT 13 October 2014 20 October 2014 Yes 0%

Identification of Countries to be visited 5 days AC 1st week of November No 0%

Footnotes for the SA 3 days MIP QT 03 November 2014 05 November 2014 No 0%

Country visits (joint with EDP?) 15 days ?? 01 December 2014 19 December 2014 No 0%

DMES debriefing 1 day PP 10 December 2014 10 December 2014 No 0%

DM debriefing 1 day PP 15 December 2014 15 December 2014 No 0%

Main dimensions

• Based on the lecture of all metadata and other information the analysis focuses on :

• Footnotes + proposed text• Quality improvements with respect to the

previous year• Clustering by MIP headlines• Focus on medium term (10 years)

SAFEBOOK

Current account

balance - % of GDP

Net internatio

nal investment position

Real Effective Exchange

Rate

Share of world

exports

Nominal unit labour cost index

House Price Index

deflated

Private credit flow

Private debt

General government gross

debt (EDP)

Unemployment rate

Total financial sector

liabilitiesThresholds -4/6% -35% ±5% & ±11% (*) -6% 9% & 12% (*) 6% 14% 133% 60% 10% 16.5%

BE No No No No No No No No No NoBG No No No No No No No No No NoCZ No No No No No No No No No NoDK No No No No No No No No No NoDE No No No No No No No No No NoEE No No No No No No No No No NoIE No No No No No No No No No NoEL No No No No No No No No No NoES No No No No No No No No No NoFR No No No No Yes No No No yes NoHR Yes Yes No No No No No No No NoIT No No No No No No No No No NoCY No No No No No No No No No NoLV No No No Yes No Yes Yes No No NoLT No No No No No No No No No NoLU No No No No No No No No No YesHU No No No No No No No No No NoMT No No No No No No No No No NoNL No No No No No No No No No NoAT No No No No Yes No No No No NoPL No No No No Yes No No No No NoPT No No No No No No No No No NoRO No No No No Yes No No No No NoSI No No No No No No No No No NoSK No No No No No No No No No NoFI No No No No No No No No No NoSE No No No No No No No No No NoUK No No No No No No No No No No

Preliminary results

Proposed footnotes

• MIP team has identified so far 11 footnotes for the Statistical Annex

4 footnotes for the House Price Index footnotes in 3 domains for Latvia

• Dissemination team will liaise with domain managers to decide which footnotes to retain and which information should be used for metadata and which data should be flagged

EDP vs SafebookEDP Risk Assessment Safebook

Focus Risk Fit for purpose (safeness = 1 - risk)

Score 0-10 0-100%Indicators Debt + Deficit (aggregated) 11Perspective Producer perspective User perspectiveSources Missions, expertise of desk

officers, data, inventories and other metadata, other information

Knowledge, data, metadata, quality reports and inventories

Respondents Desk officers MIP teamBenchmarking Management Directorate D Domain managers

ECFIN-ECB ?Briefing to DG of Eurostat Briefing to Director of D

Usage EC internal use only (work planning)

Eurostat internal use (work planning)

Fit for purposes assessment

• On the basis of the score assigned to the different questions and their relative impact factor a Safebook index [0-100%] was calculated for all indicators and Member States.

Legend

Safe >75%Risk under control 75%<x<50%Risk out of control <50%

LegendSafe >95%Risk under control 85%<x<95%Potential risk 70%<x<85%Risk out of control <70%

Initial clustering Final clustering (consistent with EDP)

SAFEBOOK

Current account balance - % of GDP

Net internatio

nal investment position

Real Effective

Exchange Rate

Share of world

exports

Nominal unit labour cost index

House Price Index

deflated

Private credit flow

Private debt

General government gross

debt (EDP)

Unemployment rate

Total financial sector

liabilitiesThresholds -4/6% -35% ±5% & ±11% (*) -6% 9% & 12% (*) 6% 14% 133% 60% 10% 16.5%

BE 77% 68% 77% 68% 89% 60% 60% 36% 98% 64%BG 73% 74% 74% 59% 55% 70% 72% 65% 98% 43%CZ 81% 76% 83% 71% 66% 81% 81% 68% 98% 71%DK 77% 77% 73% 96% 92% 76% 76% 70% 98% 79%DE 79% 73% 89% 71% 77% 81% 81% 68% 97% 68%EE 85% 79% 86% 77% 68% 63% 63% 77% 94% 59%IE 82% 73% 75% 76% 92% 67% 67% 57% 98% 65%EL 79% 76% 76% 37% 39% 58% 58% 65% 96% 48%ES 84% 81% 87% 76% 71% 88% 88% 44% 96% 71%FR 77% 72% 77% 71% 67% 59% 59% 71% 91% 64%HR 61% 61% 65% 58% 86% 59% 59% 31% 94% 16%IT 77% 73% 79% 90% 91% 63% 63% 50% 96% 66%CY 76% 77% 82% 72% 66% 56% 56% 68% 96% 48%LV 83% 81% 85% 68% 67% 51% 51% 65% 98% 71%LT 76% 74% 85% 74% 73% 77% 77% 60% 96% 73%LU 80% 75% 79% 68% 84% 38% 38% 56% 98% 48%HU 79% 76% 78% 68% 61% 81% 81% 70% 98% 71%MT 76% 77% 80% 76% 87% 64% 64% 77% 98% 67%NL 82% 75% 80% 92% 87% 67% 67% 77% 98% 73%AT 86% 81% 87% 67% 46% 83% 83% 52% 97% 66%PL 67% 68% 74% 62% 50% 54% 54% 76% 98% 71%PT 82% 79% 86% 66% 92% 74% 74% 54% 96% 71%RO 81% 74% 83% 62% 36% 71% 71% 48% 94% 62%SI 80% 79% 79% 71% 90% 53% 53% 84% 98% 66%SK 71% 67% 77% 76% 72% 56% 56% 68% 98% 66%FI 79% 78% 76% 91% 91% 76% 76% 83% 97% 78%SE 79% 72% 83% 89% 87% 51% 51% 77% 97% 64%UK 75% 70% 70% 82% 92% 60% 60% 76% 96% 66%

SAFEBOOK

Current account

balance - % of GDP

Net internatio

nal investment position

Real Effective

Exchange Rate

Share of world

exports

Nominal unit labour cost index

House Price Index

deflated

Private credit flow

Private debt

General government gross

debt (EDP)

Unemployment rate

Total financial sector

liabilitiesThresholds -4/6% -35% ±5% & ±11% (*) -6% 9% & 12% (*) 6% 14% 133% 60% 10% 16.5%

BE 86% 68% 77% 68% 89% 60% 60% 72% 98% 64%BG 73% 74% 74% 59% 55% 70% 72% 73% 98% 43%CZ 81% 76% 83% 71% 66% 81% 81% 74% 98% 71%DK 77% 77% 73% 96% 92% 76% 76% 78% 98% 79%DE 79% 73% 89% 71% 77% 81% 81% 92% 97% 68%EE 85% 79% 86% 77% 68% 63% 63% 73% 97% 59%IE 82% 73% 75% 76% 92% 67% 67% 79% 98% 65%EL 79% 76% 76% 37% 39% 58% 58% 68% 98% 48%ES 84% 81% 87% 76% 71% 88% 88% 76% 98% 71%FR 77% 72% 77% 71% 67% 59% 59% 87% 91% 64%HR 61% 61% 65% 58% 86% 59% 59% 37% 97% 16%IT 77% 73% 79% 90% 91% 63% 63% 74% 96% 66%CY 76% 77% 82% 72% 66% 56% 56% 74% 98% 48%LV 83% 81% 85% 68% 67% 51% 51% 74% 98% 71%LT 76% 74% 85% 74% 73% 77% 77% 82% 98% 73%LU 80% 75% 79% 68% 84% 38% 38% 62% 98% 48%HU 79% 76% 78% 68% 61% 81% 81% 77% 98% 71%MT 76% 77% 80% 76% 87% 64% 64% 92% 98% 67%NL 82% 75% 80% 92% 87% 67% 67% 92% 98% 73%AT 86% 81% 87% 67% 46% 83% 83% 70% 97% 66%PL 67% 68% 74% 62% 50% 54% 54% 76% 98% 71%PT 82% 79% 86% 66% 92% 74% 74% 73% 96% 71%RO 81% 74% 83% 62% 36% 71% 71% 72% 94% 62%SI 80% 79% 79% 71% 90% 53% 53% 90% 98% 66%SK 71% 67% 77% 76% 72% 56% 56% 74% 98% 66%FI 79% 78% 76% 91% 91% 76% 76% 92% 97% 78%SE 79% 72% 83% 89% 87% 51% 51% 92% 97% 64%UK 75% 70% 70% 82% 92% 60% 60% 90% 98% 66%

Legend

Safe >75%Risk under control 75%<x<50%Risk out of control <50%

LegendSafe >95%Risk under control 85%<x<95%Potential risk 70%<x<85%Risk out of control <70%

Initial clustering Final clustering(consistent with EDP)

GGD Benchmarking

EDP Risk Assessment Scores

Scores are aggregated to debt and deficit.

MIP assesses debt only

Linear combination

Before benchmarking

After benchmarking

SAFEBOOK

General government gross

debt (EDP)Thresholds 60%

HR 37%LU 62%EL 68%AT 70%RO 72%BE 72%EE 73%BG 73%PT 73%CZ 74%IT 74%CY 74%LV 74%SK 74%ES 76%PL 76%HU 77%DK 78%IE 79%LT 82%FR 87%SI 90%UK 90%DE 92%MT 92%NL 92%FI 92%SE 92%

SAFEBOOK

General government gross

debt (EDP)Thresholds 60%

HR 31%BE 36%ES 44%RO 48%IT 50%AT 52%PT 54%LU 56%IE 57%LT 60%BG 65%EL 65%LV 65%DE 68%CZ 68%CY 68%SK 68%HU 70%DK 70%FR 71%PL 76%UK 76%EE 77%MT 77%NL 77%SE 77%FI 83%SI 84%

SAFEBOOK

Current account balance - % of GDP

Net internatio

nal investment position

Real Effective Exchange

Rate

Share of world

exports

Nominal unit labour cost index

House Price Index

deflated

Private credit flow

Private debt

General government gross

debt (EDP)

Unemployment rate

Total financial sector

liabilitiesThresholds -4/6% -35% ±5% & ±11% (*) -6% 9% & 12% (*) 6% 14% 133% 60% 10% 16.5%

BE No No No No No No No No No NoBG No No No No No No No No No NoCZ No No No No No No No No No NoDK No No No No No No No No No NoDE No No No No No No No No No NoEE No No No No No No No No No NoIE No No No No No No No No No NoEL No No No No No No No No No NoES No No No No No No No No No NoFR No No No No Yes No No No yes NoHR Yes Yes No No No No No No No NoIT No No No No No No No No No NoCY No No No No No No No No No NoLV No No No Yes No Yes Yes No No NoLT No No No No No No No No No NoLU No No No No No No No No No YesHU No No No No No No No No No NoMT No No No No No No No No No NoNL No No No No No No No No No NoAT No No No No Yes No No No No NoPL No No No No Yes No No No No NoPT No No No No No No No No No NoRO No No No No Yes No No No No NoSI No No No No No No No No No NoSK No No No No No No No No No NoFI No No No No No No No No No NoSE No No No No No No No No No NoUK No No No No No No No No No No

Questions?