safe behaviour and decision making - glenn elliott
TRANSCRIPT
Making safer decisions
Mary Omodei, Glenn Elliott, Claire JohnsonPsychological Science, LaTrobe University, Victoria
• Background
andFire Behavior Human Behavior
High Reliability Organisations:
1. Pre-occupation with failure
High Reliability Organisations:
1. Pre-occupation with failure
2. Reluctance to simplify
High Reliability Organisations:
1. Pre-occupation with failure
2. Reluctance to simplify
3. Sensitivity to operations
High Reliability Organisations:
1. Pre-occupation with failure
2. Reluctance to simplify
3. Sensitivity to operations
4. Commitment to resilience
High Reliability Organisations:
1. Pre-occupation with failure
2. Reluctance to simplify
3. Sensitivity to operations
4. Commitment to resilience
5. Deference to expertise
Mind and Body: The two-way street
Mind and Body: The two-way street
Mind and Body: The two-way street
Contour linesPre-burnt areas
Wind direction indicator
1000 metres
114 interviews....25 incidents across Vic and NSW......how many words ?
214,681
214,681
214,681 552,899
214,681 552,899
D2.3 project
214,681 552,899 933,054
D2.3 project
A Human Factors Fire Triangle
Thin
king
A Human Factors Fire Triangle
Thin
king Relating
A Human Factors Fire Triangle
Thin
king Relating
Co-ordinating
?
Dr. Robert McNamara, (former U.S. Secretary of Defence)
The Fogs of War:
The Fogs of War:
The Fogs of War: Firefighting
The Fogs of War:
7 Human Factors lessons from the fireground
Firefighting
Lesson 1:
“We are essentially baboons who wear clothes and speak in sentences”
J- Dr Jim McLennan
Thinkin
g
Lesson 2:
We are good at managing the fire, but not good at managing ourselves
Micromanaging37%
Struggling with workload26%
High communications workload16%
Increased span of control21%
Some Good News !
Redistributing workload28%
Selectively at -tending
7%
Use of decision tools28%
Employing a scribe21%
Unable to employ a
scribe17%
Underlying processes
Underlying processes
Lesson 3:
We tend to underestimate what the fire will do, while overestimating what we can do about it
Networked Fire Chief Experiment
Contour linesPre-burnt areas
Wind direction indicator
1000 metres
Six scenarios
Lesson 4:
We can be reluctant to change plans even when the situation demands such a change
Lesson 5:
The importance of personal knowledge
Local Knowledge
Navigation26%
Role selection14%
Local Residents9%
Anticipate Fire Behaviour32%
Sit-reps/Intel19%
Trust
Lesson 6:
The importance of thinking ahead (including the use of worst-case scenarios)
Lesson 7:
We use previous experiences to guide current thinking
Train
ing/
Ops
Where to ?
Train
ing/
Ops Investigations
Where to ?
Train
ing/
Ops Investigations
Lessons Learned
Where to ?
http://www.iawfonline.org/phoenix/
http://www.wildfirelessons.net/Home.aspx
http://www.airsafe.com
Get Serious about HRO – Mike DeGroskyhttp://wildfiremag.com/wui/serious_hro_0708/
Human Factors in Aviation: A natural history – Sidney Dekkerhttp://www.lu.se/upload/Trafikflyghogskolan/TR2003-02_HumanFactorsinAviationaNaturalHistory.pdf
Mary Omodei: [email protected]
Glenn Elliott: [email protected]
Claire Johnson: [email protected]
The End