safe and sustainable water resources research safe and sustainable water resources program...

Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Research

www.epa.gov/researchwww.epa.gov/research

Safe and Sustainable Water Resources Program

Promoting safe and sustainable waters through integrated management of nutrients in New England

How can we more effectively inform governance decisions at multiple scales: land management (conservation planning), markets, technology (grey & green infrastructure), regulations (criteria) and incentives, and individual actions ?

SSWR - Signature Project - Talk Outline• Goals • Conceptual framework (for Social-Ecological System)

• Key upper level questions, guiding aspects of the research• We need to understand system, to better inform governance decisions• Planned research products and schedule (2012-2017)

• Trends (in part based on published literature and historical data) & Scenarios• Communication for conservation (multiple goals)• Need for collaboration (research and management)

• Additional Sides (References)

In PPT presentation mode, multiple active hyperlinks

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperlink

www.epa.gov/research

U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyOffice of Research and Development http://www.epa.gov/ord/SSWR Research Priorities http://www.epa.gov/ord/priorities/waterresources.htm\

Purpose of the SSWR Signature Project

Goals:

• Demonstrate an approach to integrated nutrient management for the Narragansett Bay system

• Provide solutions that can be broadly applied to other coastal watersheds and their associated estuaries

• Such that nutrient management decisions in Southern New England ecosystems and watersheds are made in a holistic manner • So that human well-being and ecosystem condition are maintained, protected or improved.

SSWR – Science Question 6. What effective systems-based approaches can be used to identify and manage causes of degraded water resources to promote protection and recovery. Issue = Nutrients.

http://www.epa.gov/ord/

http://www.epa.gov/ord/priorities/waterresources.htm/





Sustainable Water & other ecosystem

services

Disturbances & Enhancements

Physical• hydrologic• sediments • thermal

Chemical• nutrients• contaminants

Biological• habitat • biota

Drivers of change: •Global climate change,

•population growth & land use change

•biogeochemical cycles

Social context Biotic context

Adaption of Collins et al 2011 Frontiers in Ecology Press Pulse Dynamics Framework

,

Decisions• Air• Land• Water

Q1

Scales : National, Regional, Local

Supply of servicesDemand for and access to services

EPF’s


A systems approach for organizing management and research questions

ORD Informing

Ecosystem Structure

Ecosystem Function

ERF’s

Human Behaviorland management (conservation planning), markets, technology (grey & green infrastructure), regulations (criteria) and incentives, and individual actions.

Human Outcomesvariations in quality and quantity of water & effects on: 1) designated uses of water, 2) human health & well being (e.g. aesthetics) 3) economic values

http://www.esajournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1890/100068





1) How has the management of Narragansett Bay and its watershed to date impacted the disturbances, enhancements, and ecosystem structure and function? (2) How do both drivers of change, and disturbances / enhancements (specifically nutrient related impacts) affect ecosystem structure and function, and ultimately sustainable water resources?

(3) How can future governance decisions be informed or supported at multiple scales, related to management of the system to help assure sustainable water resources and desirable human outcomes?

Need to informing a range of regulatory and non-regulator human behaviors related to possible physical, chemical and biological enhancements.

To better inform decisions at a range of governance scales: There are a number of questions the research program needs to answer:



.


• Need to understand:• the specific system to be managed• desired outcomes (e.g in case studies)

• Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia, watershed & airshed• Chesapeake Bay, watershed & airshed• Narragansett Bay, watershed, & airshed

• larger & local scale drivers of change• key ecosystem structures & functions • human outcomes & behavior• how management networks operate• how research networks inform decisions

• Are Agency policies & governance decisions at multiple scales related to air, land, and water, enabling or inhibiting systems solutions?

End users in governance at a range of scales

knowledge

information data

For Nr we could look at source reduction and sink enhancement.



http://blogs.softchoice.com/itgrok/files/2011/06/5265503___network1.jpg



• 2014: Trend analysis of stressors and ecological responses, particularly nutrients, in the Narragansett Bay Watershed How is the watershed and estuary changing over time? • 2014: Assessment of past & present governance decisions affecting nutrient fluxes Are we learning from different policy cycles?

• 2015: Quantitative models describing past and current nutrient fluxes and associated ecosystem level responses How much of the observed variation is predictable and controllable? Requires combination of measurements, experimentation and quantitative models. • 2015: A systems analysis of nutrient management scenarios under climate variation for Narragansett Bay Watershed How can future scenarios be designed to inform key future decisions? • 2016 Key Product: Decision support tools to inform decisions at multiple scales affecting nutrient flux and the trajectory change within the Narragansett Bay Watershed as a demonstration: Are the conceptual approaches, information, and decision support tools useful to end users? • 2017: A guidance manual for extrapolation and transferring the tools to other coastal watersheds How might the approach be adapted for use in other watersheds?

SSWR Signature Project & Planned Research Products:







Trends in Nitrogen Loading:

Coterminous U.S.A. Compton et al. 2011 Ecology letters

5X ▲ TN

4X ▲ TN

Narragansett Bay Vadeboncoeur et al. 2010

15SSWR – Science Question 6. What effective systems-based approaches can be used to identify and manage causes of degraded water resources to promote protection and recovery. Issue = Nutrients.



http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01631.x/pdf

http://www.mendeley.com/research/modeled-nitrogen-loading-narragansett-bay-1850-2015-5/








Plus POTW Point Sources to Estuaries

Landside Load to the Estuary NB = 203 kg Nr / ha estuary / yr CB = 270 kg Nr / ha estuary / yr

Scales of GovernanceAir rules can benefit the regionLocal point sources solutionsAgriculture solutions needed in some locations

Several points to interveneNr Cascade: Air, Land, & Water

Geographic Variation in Sources of Nr Yield kg/ha/yr from Northeast Rivers

Latimer & Charpentier (2010)

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771410002155







– SCENARIO: Trends – SCENARIO: Composite

http://www.planning.ri.gov/spp/default.htm

How would these different future scenarios affect nutrient fluxes , e.g. ▲Nr flux thru the watershed to the Bay?

RI Land Use Planning Scenarios Scenario planning project using the GIS analysis and 3 different growth scenarios for 2025.

http://www.planning.ri.gov/spp/default.htm





Available from http://www.edc.uri.edu/rigis/data/data.aspx?ISO=planningCadastre Landuse2025.zip

Red ▲ = new development

Green = protected open space

RI Land Use Planning Scenarios Scenario planning projectTRENDS

http://www.edc.uri.edu/rigis/data/data.aspx?ISO=planningCadastre





Communication For Conservation • Conservation for Human Uses:

– Air ▲ NOx controls – Land ▲ Comprehensive LU Planning

▲ Low Impact Development

▲ Transfer of Development Rights– Water ▲ Point & Nonpoint controls

▲ Wetlands Restoration

• Transportation Planning

• Conservation of Landscapes & Aesthetics

• Consideration of Climate Change

How do we tie scenarios to ▲ Nitrogen flux ?

RI Land Use Planning Scenarios Scenario planning projectCOMPOSIT

http://www.dem.ri.gov/pubs/regs/regs/air/air41_07.pdf

http://www.dem.ri.gov/pubs/regs/regs/air/air41_07.pdf

http://www.planning.ri.gov/comp/default.htm

http://www.dem.ri.gov/programs/bpoladm/suswshed/pdfs/lidplan.pdf

http://www.dem.ri.gov/programs/bpoladm/suswshed/pdfs/tdrreprt.pdf

http://www.dem.ri.gov/programs/benviron/water/permits/ripdes/index.htm

http://www.dem.ri.gov/programs/benviron/water/quality/nonpoint/index.htm

http://www.dem.ri.gov/programs/benviron/water/wetlands/restfresh.htm

http://www.planning.ri.gov/transportation/

http://www.ri.nrcs.usda.gov/conservation.html

http://www.planning.ri.gov/comp/rrilocat_2012.pdf



Trends in Nitrogen Loading:


5X ▲ TN

4X ▲ TN

Narragansett Bay Vadeboncoeur et al. 2010

15SSWR – Science Question 6. What effective systems-based approaches can be used to identify and manage causes of degraded water resources to promote protection and recovery. Issue = Nutrients.

19










Informing governance institutions Knowledge transfer at a range of scales Other Active Research Efforts informing Decisions in Narragansett Bay:

• Federal Agencies (e.g. USGS; EPA OW, OAR, R1; NOAA - CHRP), • Several Environmental Governance Institutions, and Universities (e.g. URI, Brown)

• Supported by: lab & field work, monitoring, e.g NERACOOS for use in a variety of models, e.g: CMAQ, SPARROW, SWAT, N-Sink, ESDSS, NLM, FVCOM, ROMs, EcoGEM, EcoOBM, Climate Change, etc.

• Decision Support (DS) tools, designed with end-users in mind e.g. for Northeastern lakes. Involves use of SPARROW MRB-1 & DSS Nr & TP

• Approach & DS apps. that can be adapted for use in other watersheds.

SSWR Signature Project. Geographic focus on Narragansett Bay & Watershed

End Users of knowledge

R&D knowledge





http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/sparrow/

http://www.epa.gov/aboutepa/ow.html

http://www.epa.gov/aboutepa/oar.html

http://www.epa.gov/aboutepa/region1.html

http://www.cop.noaa.gov/stressors/pollution/current/chrp/default.aspx

http://www.gso.uri.edu/

http://www.geo.brown.edu/georesearch/insomniacs/

http://www.neracoos.org/

http://www.cmaq-model.org/

http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/sparrow/

http://swatmodel.tamu.edu/software/swat-model/

http://www.uri.edu/cels/nrs/whl/Publications/Journals/Kellogg_etal_2010_Ecol_Engin.pdf

http://fsrio.nal.usda.gov/nal_web/fsrio/printresults.php?ID=6849


http://fvcom.smast.umassd.edu/FVCOM/index.html

http://www.myroms.org/

http://snapshot.narrabay.com/app/Services/MossFile.ashx?file=/SiteDirectory/general/devblog/snapshot/Documents/Publications/PowerPoint%20Presentations/Circulation%20and%20Chemical%20Transport%20in%20Upper%20NB_Kincaid.pdf

http://snapshot.narrabay.com/app/Services/MossFile.ashx?file=/SiteDirectory/general/devblog/snapshot/Documents/Publications/PowerPoint%20Presentations/Circulation%20and%20Chemical%20Transport%20in%20Upper%20NB_Kincaid.pdf

http://www.vims.edu/people/brush_mj/index.php

http://www.vims.edu/people/brush_mj/index.php

http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

http://a2626xrith002/lakeecosystemservices/

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00582.x/abstract

http://cida.usgs.gov/sparrow/

http://cida.usgs.gov/sparrow/

http://blogs.softchoice.com/itgrok/files/2011/06/5265503___network1.jpg





How can we more effectively inform governance decisions at multiple scales: land management (conservation planning), markets, technology (grey & green infrastructure), regulations (criteria) and incentives, and individual actions ?

QUESTIONS?

SSWR - Signature Project – Talk Outline • Goals • Conceptual framework (for Social-Ecological System)

• Key upper level questions, guiding aspects of the research• We need to understand system, to better inform governance decisions• Planned research products and schedule (2012-2017)

• Trends (in part based on published literature and historical data) & Scenarios• Communication for conservation (multiple goals)• Need for collaboration (research and management)

• Additional Sides (References)





16

Research on complexity in coupled social - ecological systems

Press Pulse Dynamics (PPD) framework for social-ecological systems. Collins et al, 2011

Used by National Science Foundation, Long Term Ecological, in relation to their Decadal Plan. LTER DP.

Social context: Biotic context:


http://www.lternet.edu/decadalplan/





QUESTIONS?

Additional Background Slides and Links

• Related to ORD http://www.epa.gov/ord/ and research for the 21st century

• Safe and Sustainable Water Resources (SSWR) Research Framework http://www.epa.gov/ord/priorities/waterresources.htm

• Nitrogen, a complex 21st century challenge. Reactive Nitrogen (Nr) cascade

Ecosystem Services

• Ecosystem services alterations affected by nitrogen (Compton et al 2011)• Press-Pulse Dynamics (PPD) framework from NSF (Collins et al 2011)

• Reactive Nitrogen (Nr) as press, and pulse disturbances

• Decision Cycle: ORD Informing decisions about management of Nr Cascade


http://www.epa.gov/ord/priorities/waterresources.htm



http://ontality.com/fileadmin/user_upload/N_Cascade_BioScience.pdf



Galloway et al. (2003) , Compton et al. (2011) Ecology Letters

How can research inform management of Nr sources and sinks?

Policy Levers

EPA OAR: NAAQS: PM, O3, NOX, SOX; Title IV

EPA OW: National NutrientManagement StrategyTMDLs, Nutrient Criteria

Nr Cascade

Nitrogen research & management, a challenge for 21st century

Thoughts related to cross cutting nitrogen research related to the reactive nitrogen (Nr) cascade: multiple intervention points and benefits?

RI & MA State Governance Decisions based on a combination of authorities and capacities

Municipal Governance








Trends in nitrogen loading; a national challenge


5X ▲ TN

15



Coastal fish production

10 100

1000

Drinkable water

Forest growthNortheast US

Soil fertility for crops

Nitrogen load (kg N ha-1 yr-1)

Pristine LakesRockies

1

% o

f m

axim

um

100

0

Benefits and side effects.

Tradeoff decisions informed using Ecological Production Functions (EPFs)








Stressors/Drivers

Ecosystem Condition

Ecosystem Response Functions: ERF’s

System ResponseN-Cascade ResponseSystem-based Knowledge(integrated models of ERF’s, EPF’s)

Ecosystem Goods& Services and Human Outcomes

Economic Values

System AssessmentManagement Scenarios

Decisions

Tracking Progress

ORD Informing Decisions

OAR: National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS): PM, O3, NOX, SOX; Acid Deposition (Title IV)

OW: National NutrientManagement StrategyTMDLs, Nutrient Criteria

State GovernanceDecisions based on a combination of authorities and capacities

Municipal Governance

Policy Levers: CAA, CWA

Using Collins et al 2011 color scheme

Social context: Biotic context:



http://www.epa.gov/air/criteria.html

http://www.epa.gov/apti/bces/module7/title4/title4.htm





21

EPA ORD informing decisions: To carry out the decision cycles efficiently/effectively we need to “know” several things. There are a number of “questions” a research program needs to answer:

We need to know the stressors of concern and their loading/exposure

What loading/exposure is coming in to the environment that causes harm/impairment?

We need to know what the current ecosystem condition is in terms of loading/exposure and impairment

What are the tipping points; critical loads; nutrient criteria?

Where are the exceedances and how big are they? We need to know how we got to the impairment

What are key ecological production functions (ERF’s, EPF’s) underlying impairment?

Stressors/Drivers

Ecosystem Condition

Ecosystem Response

Some thoughts related to cross cutting nitrogen research and management related to the reactive Nitrogen (Nr) cascade: multiple intervention points; possible cascading benefits?





22

We need to know how the sources are connected together and where are there feedbacks to create tools for management analysis that will address cross-media effects and uncover unintended consequences

What key elements of the N Cascade need to be connected together to provide a full picture of the system, flows and feedbacks and to be able to point out unintended consequences?

How do we implement our systems-based knowledge in integrated, multimedia models?We need to know how impairment connects to societyWhat are the ecosystem services provided by the environmental systems?

We need to know what the costs and benefits are in common termsHow are the ecosystem services valued and incorporated in an assessment framework? We need to know from where the loading/exposure is coming from

What are the sources? (source apportionment)

Ecosystem Goods & Services and Human Outcomes

System Response N-Cascade Response, System-based Knowledge

Economic Values






23

We need to be able to compare and contrast different management strategies (tools) and do it simultaneously across media

How do we provide a one-environment, integrated, multimedia scenario capability through modeling tools to address management questions; provide a range of tools?

We need to monitor the effectiveness of the management decisions

How do we design the monitoring of key indicators to provide feedback for adaptive management? How is our current research portfolio organized relative to these questions. • What are we doing that fits?• What are we missing?• How do we/can we demonstrate this in a few case studies?

Tracking Progress

System Assessment Management Scenarios


safe and sustainable water resources research safe and sustainable water resources program...

Documents

new england sustainable

nutrient management

sustainable waters

collaboration research

research products

integrated nutrient

quantity of water effects

designated uses of water