sa’s urban sustainability challenge · kom ati ingagane camden grootvlei hendrina arnot gariep kr...
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SA’s urban sustainability challengeMark Swilling
Sustainability InstituteUniversity of Stellenbosch
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Material Economic Growth
Real GDP % y-o-y
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
1994-2004: 3.0%1983-1993: 0.8%
Emerging market crisis
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GDP & EmploymentGrowth Rates (Non-Agricultural Sectors)
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Perc
enta
ge
Growth in GDP Growth in Employment
Growth in GDP 1983-1993: 1.12%Growth in Empl 1983-1993: 0.21%
Growth in GDP 1994-2004:3.09%Growth in Empl 1994-2004: 0.29%
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Trends & Forecasts
1994-2004 2004-2014
GDP growth 3% 6-7%
Investment growth 5% 10%+Job creation (p/yr) 200 000 500 000Export growth 4,4% 10%Inflation 7,3% 3-6%Productivity improvement 2,8% 2-4%
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How?
• Massive increases in public sector investment in fixed assets, in particular public infrastructures
• This will stimulate FDI and increased levels of private investment
• But what kind of infrastructure will be built? Who will spec it?
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Official figs on poverty/inequality
0,590,59Gini coefficient
3,4%2,8Share of the poorest 20% in national consumption
0,1060,131Poverty gap at US$2/day*
0,0180,031Poverty gap at US$1/day*
30,9%34,4%Proportion of population living below international poverty line of US$2/day (or R174/month)*
5.70%7,6%11,3%Proportion of population living below international poverty line of US$1/day (or R87/month)*
MDG Target
19952000INDICATOR
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9 major cities
• 2 primary cities: sprawling polycentric Johannesburg-Pretoria metro complex (called Gauteng – a ‘province’) @ 14 m
• Durban metro complex @ 3,3 m• Home to 37% of total pop of 44 m• 4,6 m dwellings, 26% informal structures• 38% of urban working pop unemployed – 1 m
more unemployed in 2001 than 1996• 7 secondary cities• Hundreds of small towns/rural villages
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Key social trends• no of households has grown faster than population
growth rate servicing obligations of the state were greater than population growth rates initially suggested;
• New jobs created, but the number of unemployed and rate of unemployment grown faster because of the rising labour force participation rate;
• changing structure of the economy means more jobs now available in service sectors rather than in traditional sectors – this requires a labour force with different skills to those available to the bulk of the unemployed labour force; and
• rapid in-migration and shifts in the demographic distribution and profile of the urban population
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Unsustainable urban growth
• To date, jobless urban economic growth, rising inequalities
• Severe governance weaknesses• Extremely inefficient on all
indicators, water, energy, wastes, air pollution, soils
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Critical Sub-Dependencies
Economic Growth
Other10%
Other10%
Energy Oil 20%Oil 20%
Coal 70%Coal 70%
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Generation
• See table
HE X R IV E RS A LT R IV E R
C E N T R A L W E S T B A N K
C O LE N S O
C O N G E LLOS O U T H C O A S T
U M G E N I
B R A KP A N
KLIP
R O S HE R V ILLE
T A A IB O S
V A A LV E R E E N IN G IN G
W ILG EW IT B A N KG E O R G E
V IE R F O N T E INHIG HV E LD
KO M A T I
IN G A G A N E
C A M D E N
G R O O T V LE I
HE N D R IN A
A R N O T
G A R IE P
KR IE L
A C A C IA P O R T R E X V A N D E R KLO O F
M A T LA
D U HV A
C A HO R A B A S S AD R A KE N S B E R G
KO E B E R G
T U T U KA
LE T HA B O
M A T IM B A
KE N D A L
P A LM IE T
M A J U B A
0
5, 00 0
1 0, 00 0
1 5, 00 0
2 0, 00 0
2 5, 00 0
3 0, 00 0
3 5, 00 0
4 0, 00 0
5 5 6 0 6 5 70 7 5 8 0 85 9 0 9 5 0 0 0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 25 3 0 3 5 40 4 5 5 0 5 5 6 0
Ye a r
Me
ga
wa
tt In
sta
ll
5 5 6 0 6 5 70 7 5 8 0 85 9 0 9 5 0 0 0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 25 3 0 3 5 40 4 5 5 0 5 5 6 0
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Energy intensity
• See tables
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Energy users
Industry 40%
Mining and quarrying 7%
Transport27%
Residential17%
Other1% Non-energy
use 1%
Agriculture 3%
Commerce andpublic services 4%
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Water
Total system yield: Total water requirements:• 2000:13.227 x 109m3 12.871 x 109m3• 2025 (base):14.166 x 109m3 14.230 x 109m3• 2025 (high):14.940 x 109m3 16.814 x 109m3
Agric irrigation uses 50%, urban/domestic use 25%
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Sustainable Resource Use
• Climate change• Oil peak and oil-
based fuels• Energy• Water &
sanitation• Solid waste• Soils
• Coastal & marine resources
• Biodiversity• Minerals• Air quality
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Key sustainability challenge‘consumption neighborhood’
Or
‘sustainable neighborhood’
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National – SA case
“…secure ecologically sustainable development and use of natural
resources while promoting justifiable economic and social
development.”Section 24 (b) of the Constitution
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guiding principles• Meeting of fundamental human needs via reduction in
inequalities • Valuing authentic cultural diversity, community solidarity,
child-centred activities and citizen participation • Entrepreneurship, equity and fair trade at all levels (global,
regional and local) • Health, well-being and soulfulness • Transition to renewable energy alternatives and energy
efficiency • Zero waste via re-use of all waste outputs as productive
inputs• Sustainable transport, with a major focus on public transport• Sustainable construction materials and building methods• Local and sustainable food• Sustainable water use and re-use of treated sewerage• Enhancing biodiversity and the preservation of natural
habitats
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Economy
Ecology
governance
Society
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• There are 3 key challenges, currently not being met:
1.1. Speed upSpeed up innovationinnovation (social and technological).(social and technological).
2.2. Transfer incomeTransfer income from rich to poor in a way that is efficient and from rich to poor in a way that is efficient and politically acceptable. politically acceptable.
3.3. Make process selfMake process self--governinggoverning, self, self--financing, independent of financing, independent of complex government programs, and replicable.complex government programs, and replicable.
• Link the “Green-Red” Agendas: Use existing energy, water, and waste payments to finance social development.
Towards sustainable neighborhoods
R. Lichtman E E -- SystemSSystemS
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Cape Town’s footprint• 4,28 ha/cap, ranging from 0,5 ha to 8 ha
ha/cap• 800 000 households, 300 000 are shacks• 16% of households responsible for 50%
of all residential waste – ave is 2 kg/p• 61% of potable water used for flushing
– 20% don’t have toilets• 56% of all energy from oil, 54% of all
energy used by transport
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R 6.0 billionTOTAL
R 0.6 billionWaste Management
R 0.8 billionWater TreatmentR 1.6 billionWater Supply
R 3.0 billionElectricity
ExpenditureResource
Conservative 10% increase in resource efficiency
Using proven technologies and systems
Would be worth R 600 Million per year (R 600 Million per year (€€ 80 M)80 M).
Example: Cape TownResource Flows (2006)
R. Lichtman E E -- SystemSSystemS
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Key technology interventions
• Eliminate 60% of electricity consumption via CFLs, SWHs, insulation, LP gas stoves
• Eliminate 40% of water requirement via grey water recycling
• Comprehensive solid waste recycling• Transition to RE, incl biofuels, solar rooftops,
wind, hydrogen (as decentralised carrier only)
• Capture mechanism for cross-subsidising pro-poor development