WESTON WAYWEST CHESTER, PA 19380PHONE: 215-692-3030TELEX: 83-5348

MANAGERS \ S DESIGNERS/CONSULTANTS

8 My 1992

Mr. Kenneth W. BrownManager, Technology Support CenterU.S. Environmental Protection AgencyOffice of Research and DevelopmentEnvironmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory — Las VegasP.O. Box 93478Las Vegas, Nevada 89193-3478

Subject Supporting Information for the RI/FS of the Commodore Semiconductor/MOS Site

Dear Mr. Brown:

In a conference call held on 17 June 1992, Dr. A. K. Singh asked that I provide some additional information concerninga statistical model (described in the Rl/FS report) for evaluating the contribution of several contaminant sources to agroundwater plume. One of his requests was that I evaluate the normality of the data used in the discriminant analysisusing Kolmogorov's distance statistic (D). Attached is a table that summarizes, for each source indicator in each cluster,four statistics that are used to assess normality (i.e., skewness, kurtosis, coefficient of variation, and Kolmogorov'sdistance). Also attached are computer printouts that document this evaluation.

Pages 1 through 18 of the printout provide descriptive statistics and statistical graphics for evaluating the normality ofthe source indicator data by cluster. The descriptive statistics (e.g., skewness, kurtosis) and the statistical graphics (e.g.,stem-leaf diagram/histogram, box plot, normal probability plot) suggest that, for the most part, the deviations fromnormality are relatively minor. On the other hand, the Shapiro-Wilk tests of normality indicate that there are statisticaldifferences. Because of the large sample sizes (i.e., 87 and 204), however, these tests can detect statistical differencesthat are not meaningful. In other words, the tests may indicate a statistical departure from normality .that has little orno effect on the results of the discriminant analysis. To evaluate this possibility, the magnitudes of the departures wereassessed using Kolmogorov's distance.

Pages 18 through 30 of the printout provide normal probability plots and plots of the Kolmogorov's distances by clusterfor each of the source indicators. To make the distances more comparable and understandable, the raw source indicatordata were standardized to a mean of 0 and a variance of 1. Pages 31 through 36 of the printouts provides a listing ofthese standardized Kolmogorov distances. The plots of the distance statistics indicate that most of the deviations areless than one standard deviation and are confined to the extreme portions of the tails of the distributions. In severalinstances, most of the distances are very small and the maximum distance represents only one point out of 87 or 204samples.

To put this information into perspective, I would like to make two points. First, discriminant analysis will be insensitiveto small departures from normality, especially when the number of groups is small, the difference between the groupsis large, and the sample sizes are large (i.e., greater than 25 to 50). All three of these conditions apply in the case ofthe CSG model (i.e., there were only two groups, there were large statistical differences between the groups, and thesample sizes of the groups were 87 and 204). Second, even if the departures from normality were large enough to lessenthe precision of the estimated probabilities, steps were taken to moderate any imprecision as we have described inprevious submissions. Remember also that the aim of the model was not to calculate precise probabilities, but rather,to illustrate a pattern of groundwater contamination that was geochemical and hydrogeologically consistent with CSGas the source.

Page 2 (cont'd)

Please forward this material to Dr. Siiigh. I am compiling the other information he requested and will provide it as soonas possible. Feel free to contact me at 215/430-3049 if you have any questions.

Very truly yours,

ROY F. WESTON, INC.

Charles T. Kufs, P.O.Technical DirectorGeosciences Department

Copies: R. Rzepski w/ attachments. J. Olson w/ attachmentsR. Ng w/o attachmentsK. Rader w/o attachments

SUMMARY OF DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

FOR ASSESSING SAMPLE NORMALITY

NormalDistribution

SKEWNESS

0

KURTOSIS

0

COEFFICIENTOF VARIATION

LESS THAN120

KOLMOGOROV'SDISTANCE

0

CSG CLUSTER

Log of TotalVolatile OrganicsLog Ratio ofChloroform to VOCs

Log Ratio of TC Ato VOCs

Log Ratio of TCAtoTCE

k '•.eg Ratio ofFEthanes to Ethenes

1 Log Ratio of 1,1-DCE

-0.9

0.5

-1.0

-0.1

0.9

-0.2

0.5

-0.2

0.4

2.8

0.7

1.4

37.8

30.6

52.3

79.2

58.7

67.5

-1.0

0.9

-0.8

1.5

0.7

1.2

NON-CSG CLUSTER

Log of TotalVolatile Organics

Log Ratio ofChloroform to VOCs

Log Ratio of TCAto VOCs

Log Ratio of TCAtoTCE

Log Ratio ofEthanes to EthenesLog Ratio of 1,1-DCEto 1,2-DCE

0.2

-0.8

-0.9

0.4

-0.2

0.3

-0.8

-0.4

0.3

0.3

0.6

0.3

102.6

84.5

66.0

358.0

554.8

1,448

-0.5

-1.6

-1.2

-0.6

-0.5

0.7

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