s c i e n c e f o r d e c i s i o n m a k e r s d e p a r t m e n t o f a g r i c u l t u r e, f i s...
TRANSCRIPT
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R SD E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E , F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y
S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
B u r e a u o fR u r a l S c i e n c e s
James Walcott
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
Agroclimatic Characterization and Zoning Methods for Operational Applications:
John Sims
(operations)
Greg Laughlin James Walcott
(climate) (agriculture)
Tim Brinkley
(methods)
Presented to WMO Workshop on Climate Analysis and Mapping for Agriculture. Bologna, 14-17 June 2005.
Tools that make climate simple for agricultural decision makers
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
Distribution of grain cropping in Australia
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
Outline
• Operational uses• Rainfall reliability wizard: grain adaptation• Integrated toolset: productivity• Growest: pasture forecasts• National Monitoring system: drought policy• Conclusions/Future extensions
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
Operational Uses
• Agricultural adaptation – Crop, livestock decisions
• Climate risks– Fire risk, storm warning, frost warning
• Agricultural risks– Pest & disease outbreaks, weed incursions, plague locust
• Policy delivery– Natural resource management, conservation, rural policy,
drought relief, quarantine
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
Rainfall Reliability Wizard
Laughlin et al (2003) Environmental Modelling and Software 18: 49-57
Bureau of Meteorologyrainfall grids: 100+ yrs 25 km sq Analysis:
means percentiles between seasons within seasons event analysis
Display and access: www.brs.gov.au/rainfall
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
Probability of 50% seasonal mean
www.brs.gov.au/rainfall
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
Reliability of achieving 25 mm/month for June – September
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
Distribution of available water capacity in soil profile across grain cropping zone
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
Integrated Toolset
• ANU Splin (Hutchinson 1990)• Interpolations using thin-plate splines• Independent factors such as altitude• Commercial in confidence
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
Livestock density in 2001
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
Livestock densityLow Medium High
LowMedium
High
Index of primary productivity
Integrated Toolset: relating primary productivity to livestock density
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
Soil moisture extraction
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
(Current rain + storage)/Max water storage
Ea/
ET
Clay loam
Sandy Loam
Clay
THERMAL RESPONSE
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Mean daily temperature (0C)
Th
erm
al I
nd
ex
Microtherm Mesotherm C3 megatherm C4 Megatherm
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Total solar radiation
Lig
ht
ind
ex
Radiation Temperature
Moisture
•Fitzpatrick and Nix (1970) – GrowEst•Nix (1981)•Hutchinson, Nix and McMahon (1992)•Brinkley et al (2005)
GrowEst: simple estimates of plant growth
Major climate drivers in plant growth
GI = LI x TI x MI
Growth Index
TI - Temperature index
RI - Radiation index
MI - Moisture index
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
Analyses
Mapping
Regional Reports
The National Monitoring System
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
Conclusions
Also consider flexible, pragmatic systems that:• Analyse data rapidly• Provide simple outputs• Respond to wide range of requests• Use our skills to provide advice on output
Future• Weather Wizard (frost, growing degree days, vernalisation)• Climate change/adaptation
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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S
“… not … the simplicity this side of complexity, but … the simplicity on the other side of complexity.”
Oliver Wendell Holmes