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Russian Foreign Policy 2018

Presented by Patti Nordskog Davis, B.A. History and Soviet Studies M.A. International Relations

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SourcesThe Man Without A Face, The Unlikely Rise of Vladimir Putin,

Masha Gessen 2012Putin, His Downfall and Russia’s Coming Crash, Richard

Lourie, 2017Once Upon a Time in Russia, Ben Mezrich 2015Fragile Empire, How Russia Fell in and Out of Love with

Vladimir Putin, Ben Judah 2013Red Notice, Bill Browder 2015The New Tsar, Steven Lee Myers 2015All the Kremlin’s Men, Mikhail Zygar 2016Winter is Coming, Garry Kasparov 2015

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Sources, Continued…

The Putin Interviews, Oliver Stone Interviews Putin 2017The New Cold War, Edward Lucas 2008Implosion, The End of Russia and What It Means for

America, Ilan Berman 2013

Foreign Affairs Magazine May/June 2016Foreign Affairs Magazine January/February 2018The Atlantic Magazine January/February 2018

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Sources Continued…

Various Websites:BBCCNNFox NewsABC NewsNBC NewsBloomberg NewsNY TimesLA TimesRadio Free Europe/Radio LibertyReutersAssociated PressBrookings InstituteGeorge F. Kennan InstituteCarnegie Endowment CSIS

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Who Determines Russia’s Foreign Policy?

Putin himself.Internal Kremlin Security Council – inner circle, but Putin makes ultimate decisions.

Opportunistic and unpredictable, but within stated goals.Always looking for signs of weakness in opponents, waiting and watching for the right moment.

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One Man in Control

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Putin’s MandateHe was hand-picked by Boris Yeltsin on advice by Oligarch Boris Berezovsky to succeed him in office.

As he left the Kremlin for life in retirement, Yeltsin told Putin:

“TAKE CARE OF RUSSIA”

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Yeltsin Resigns NY Eve 1999

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Putin’s Mandate

• Putin seems to feel only he can “save” Russia. He is the Savior of Russia. He is on a “special mission from God” (Time Mag)

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Under Putin’s Rule, Russia has been in a Constant State of Emergency

Terrorists bombings in RussiaWar in Chechnya Economic collapseNATO expansion up to Russia’s borderUS Interference and Manipulation

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The Regime

•“It’s Not that the System is Corrupt - Corruption is the System” – Garry Kasparov, World Chess Champion and Human Rights Advocate.

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The Regime

•A grand deal was made between oligarchs and Putin in 2000. Permitted to keep ill-gotten gains so long as they didn’t enter the political sphere or criticize the regime.

•Critics are harshly punished or killed.

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Putin is possibly the richest man in the world.

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Panama PapersPutin claims to have a $150,000 net worth with a total income in 2012 of $113,000.

Panama Papers in 2016 reveal Putin’s offshore companies worth $2 billion – none in his name, but in his closest associates’.

Close friend, Sergei Roldugin, a cellist, is noted to be worth $100 million, godfather to Putin’s daughter.

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Roldugin Bought a $12m Stradivari Cello

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Panama Papers

Putin has numerous governmental residences plus numerous personal residences.

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Home Sweet Home

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Pool Has Gold Tiles

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Country Home

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Governance by Sistema•Putin inherited a corrupt system in place since collapse of USSR when everything owned by the State was up for sale.

•A system of governance powered by internal networks and weak formal institutions.

•Nature of informal deals and personalized loyalties.

•Hard to define. Russians “know it when they see it”.

•Described in book by Alena Ledeneva “2013: Can Russia Modernize”

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Apartments in the Kremlin

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Sistema•Prioritizes: • Short term gain over long-term sustainability.

• Loyalty over professionalism.

• Safety and collective responsibility over leadership.

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Sistema as a System WorksIt enables people to:

Trust others (inner circle).Access resources (useful friends).Mobilize cadres (core contacts).

Things get done despite inefficiencies.It motivates people.Informal income important to thousands and thousands of bureaucrats, businessmen and their dependents.

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SistemaCommunist Ideology was replaced by:

Market interests, privatized assets, favors.

Emphasis on wealth, income and capital achieved via splitting profits, paying kickbacks and paying bribes.

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Sistema Compared Over Time1990s

25% splits

10% kickbacks

2% bribes

2010s

60% splits

30% kickbacks

10% bribes

Prices went up!

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Average Bribes 2000-2017

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Who is Putin?

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Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin

Volodya - FriendsVoya – Very Close FriendsPutka – School matesPootie-Poo – George W. Bush (according to Condoleezza Rice)

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During his 2005 annual State of the Nation speech, Putin proclaimed:

“The collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest catastrophe of the last century”

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What Does Putin Want?

• Retain power in office – term limits expire in 2024. No succession plan in place.

By controlling most Russian institutions of civil society: media, courts, national politics, economy, resource development (oil, minerals and gas).

• Undo Sanctions imposed by Magnitsky Act and by EU

For Lawyer’s Death

For Annexing Crimea and invading Eastern Ukraine

For Use of Nerve Agent Novichok on Ex-spy and daughter in Salisbury, UK in March 2018.

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Magnitsky Act Explained

•Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law & Accountability Act” Law passed by US Congress in 2012

•Imposed sanctions. against specific Russian officials and citizens in retaliation for 2009 death of Sergei Magnitsky. Access to American financial system and visas are denied.

•Magnitsky was a tax lawyer to William F. Browder who investigated and revealed a $230 million tax fraud scheme by the Russian government. He died while in pre-trial detention accused of the very crimes he uncovered. Denied essential medical aid in prison.

•5 witnesses about the case died under mysterious circumstances.

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Named for William F. Browder’s Lawyer

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Sergei Magnitsky Died in Custody

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Sanctions Hurt Russian Elite (in Biarritz, France)

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What Does Putin Want?

• Recover most key assets lost in Collapse of the Soviet Union

Political, economic and geostrategic sphere of influence, (The Putin Doctrine).

Retain territory in Crimea, Eastern Ukraine, acquire Baltic states & other areas where ethnic Russians reside

Regain World’s Respect as a Superpower.

• Keep price of oil high.

• Contain and neutralize NATO, and finally destroy it from within.

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Foreign Policy Objectives• Undermine Western Democracies and their values.

• Change the world from unipolar (US-led) to multi-polar world.

• Claim Artic Seabed and its Resources, right of passage.

• Become a major player in Mideast, Reducing American influence.

• Keep Assad in Power in Syria for stability of an ally, and retention of military bases.

• Contain China along its border and in Russia’s Far East.

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Foreign Policy Objectives

• Maintain a geopolitical buffer zone (near abroad).

• Continue propaganda war against the West.

• Meddle in elections in the West to destabilize populace.

• Undermine use of US dollar in international trade.

• Needs to:

• Modernize military (limited funds).

• Increase cyber warfare capabilities.

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What are Russian Attitudes?

• Putin enjoys 85% popularity of Russian People. Putin won last election by wide margin. Voter turnout was high.

• Older Russians regret collapse of Soviet Union & long for its stability. Young people born after the collapse in 1991 are now 27 years old & don’t know what Soviet life was like.

• After collapse, Russia was impoverished, humiliated, a 3rd world country. Putin gave them back their respect and their pride.

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Russian Attitudes

• Paranoia about West’s motives and actions.

• “Russians do not comprehend how idealistic Americans really are.” (believing in democracy, human rights, equal rights, tolerance, etc.)

• “Americans do not comprehend how cynical Russians are” (Julia Ioffe of the Atlantic Mag) interviewed by Christiane Amanpour.

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Narrative Russian Attitudes•70 years of communist rule destroyed the work ethic of the nation. Prefer to have government take care of needs.

• Communist rule penalized independent thinkers. Prone to accepting propaganda.

•1990s privatization brought wide disparities in income

•Under Putin, Mid-2000’s saw incomes rise, pensions paid, consumer goods available with rise of a middle class.

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Russian Attitudes

•2008 brought recession and Ruble’s loss of value.

•68% of people view U.S. as an enemy – (due to TV news propaganda – such as RT and Sputnik News).

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Russia’s Mistrust of West

Historic. - Except during the reigns of Peter the Great and Catherine the Great when Russia admired and emulated West. Sees the West as morally corrupt and decadent. West is hypocritical especially about human rights.Western troops fought against communist government during civil war in Archangel, Murmansk and Vladivostok. British “secured” the oil fields in Baku. The West failed to recognize the new Soviet government for 15 years.

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Russia’s Mistrust of West

After fall of Soviet Union, U.S. was distracted and did little to help them evolve into modern state or help with economy.Tired of foreign invasions. (Especially German/French) Liberal democracy and international law have produced

inequality and chaos. Experienced sudden revolutions in 1905, 1917, 1989, 1991 that did not go well for them.

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Russia’s Mistrust of the West

• Putin says:• Open borders and global trade led to vanishing

jobs and mass migration.• Every traditional value is up for negotiation in

West.

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Putin Says

• Stability is more important than democracy.• Human duties are just as important as human rights and

include: o Patriotism.o Loyalty to the state.o Must hold traditional values: the state, the family and

the church over the individual.

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Putin’s Temperament

-KGB-trained to profile other people (size them up).-Has a temper.-Holds a grudge.-Has a potty mouth – switches to street slang. Reporters and interpreters don’t know what to do.-Orders political assassinations and other reprisals.

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Putin’s Temperament-Extreme reaction to criticism.

Example: 2005 in Slovakia went on a tirade against George W. Bush for 2 hours about the West. “W” later said “I wanted to slap the hell out of the interpreter!”

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Putin’s Fears

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Putin’s Fears

• Mobs, revolutions, chaos. Revolutions happen quickly and unexpectedly in Russia. They are hard to predict in advance.

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Fear: Mobs and RevolutionsPutin faced mobs in:

Dresden in 19891991 August - Leningrad (hid in bunker for two days with Mayor Sobchak) when Soviet Union collapsed.

Also witnessed:1991 cigarette & vodka riots in Leningrad1993 coup attempt by pro-communist junta

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Narrative – Mobs & Revolutions

2003 Rose Revolution in Georgia over rigged elections2007 St. Petersburg demonstrators detained2011 Snow (or White) Revolution in Russia protesting rigged elections2004 Ukraine’s Orange Revolution2014 Euromaidan protests ousting Yanukovych in “coup”2016 Rubber Duck anti-corruption protests led by Alexei Navalny.

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1991 Rally Against Coup Attempt

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1993 Failed Coup & Attack on Duma

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2016 Alexy Navalny vs. Putin

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2018 Alexei Navalny Not Deterred by Attacks

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Rubber Duck Protesters Against Corruption

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Rubber Duck Protests

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Rubber Duck Protests

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Medvedev Country Home Where Even the Ducks Live Like Kings

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One of Many Medvedev HomesHe is Said to be Worth $1.2 Billion

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2014 Maidan Square, Kyiv

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Putin’s Fears

• Sanctions from Magnitsky Act (making oligarchs and their wives unhappy).

• Disloyalty and fear of being deposed.• That U.S. wants regime change in Russia next after 2011

Arab Spring and uprising in Libya.• Ukraine coup in 2014 was a global anti-Russia conspiracy

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Putin’s Fears• Looking weak.

• “Weak leaders have ruined our country. Tsar Alexander freed the serfs and they came to the city and caused a revolution”.

• “Nicholas II was a weak tsar and look what happened”.• “Gorbachev was weak, and as a result, a great state

collapsed.”…Aleksandr A. Prokhanov (a Nationalist)

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Putin’s Fears• Encroaching NATO taking away former republics and

traditional allies.• US missile shield in Poland and Czech Republic.• Drop in oil prices. The economy is dependent on the price

of commodities.• Personal Legacy as Leader of Russia.

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NATO

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Putin Fears NATO

Article 5 states that if any NATO member is attacked, it is an attack on all members.

Gorbachev claims President Bush (41) and Secy of State James Baker assured him NATO would not expand East. Baker and American negotiators dispute the claim.

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Putin Fears NATO

2007 Munich Conference – Putin lists a string of grievances. This NATO expansion…”to whom is this expansion directed?”

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NATO Membership 1949-2017

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Restores Traditional Values: The Church

Power given to Orthodox Church and its Patriarch by Yeltsin and Putin to:

Fight against Western corrupting ideas such as gay rightsReplaces Communist ideology/atheism

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Monument to St. Vladimir

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Statue to St. Vladimir - 2016

•Unifies: • St. Vladimir, warrior prince, Founder of the Orthodox

Church• Founded Kievan Rus in 988, • Crimea where Vladimir was baptized, • The namesake of Putin. Connects Putin to the hero of the

past.

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Patriarch Alexy II, Putin and Yeltsin – Back to Traditional Values

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Putin Born 8 Years after Siege of Leningrad

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Siege Lasted 872 Days, 1.1 Million Civilians Died

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Putin’s Parents

VLADIMIR SPIRIDONOVICH PUTIN MARIA IVANOVA

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Narrative: Putin’s Background

Grandfather: Worked as a chef for Lenin and Stalin.Parents: Father served aboard a submarine in early 1930s. In WWII – worked for NKVD destruction battalion across enemy lines. He was severely wounded in both legs, disfigured, left in pain for rest of his life. Discharged from active service - went to work in a munitions factory in Leningrad. After war worked in same factory making railway and subway cars.

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Narrative: Putin’s Background

Siblings: His parents had two sons in the 1930s, Albert died in infancy. During siege, son Viktor, aged 8-10 was put in an institution to keep from starving, but he died of diphtheria.

Mother: starved to the point she could not walk and was thought to be dead. She was put in outdoor morgue in the snow (in February). Her moaning alerted someone and she was saved. In 1952, aged 41, she gave birth to Vladimir and she worked menial jobs so she could take care of him.

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Narrative: Putin’s Background

o Lived in a communal apartment with a shared kitchen and the bathroom (with no hot water) down the hall. His playground was a dark stairway where he chased rats or in the building’s dark courtyard. He was a tough, angry kid with no privacy.

o But they had a television & a telephone in their tiny apartment which they shared with another family. Putin had a wristwatch in first grade at age of almost 8. Education not a priority. Engaged in a lot of fistfights. Hung out with the older thugs who smoked, drank and fought.

o Of small stature, he was routinely beat up and learned to street fight. He took up judo to compensate. Said he was a “hooligan” growing up.

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Putin’s Background

o Studied German in school & is fluent. o Admired a TV series (Sword & Shield) about the KGB and

decided that was the life he wanted - a patriotic hero and spy who foils the West and its evil plots.

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Putin’s Background and Rise to Power

o Not allowed to join the Young Pioneers – too many fistfights.

o Approached the KGB headquarters to ask how to join. He asked what to study, told the Law. He went to university &graduated in 1975.

o Was loyal to the State and to the KGB. Not a communist ideologue.

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KGB Officer for 16 Years

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Narrative Putin’s Backgroundo The KGB offered him a job as an agent. Assigned to a post

in Dresden, East Germany to recruit foreigners to work for the Soviets. Considered an assignment of little importance. Only recruited one person who turned over materials available in public records.

o Married an Aeroflot stewardess and had two daughters. Impressed with cleanliness and orderliness of German society.

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Marries Lyudmila, A Stewardess in 1983

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Lived in Dresden w/ Wife & 2 Daughters

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Putin Split with Wife Lyudmila in 2013 After 30 Years

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New Gymnast Girlfriend

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Putin’s Faces a Mob in Dresden

o In 1989, the Berlin Wall came down. A mob appeared at the KGB HQ across the street from the German Stasi.

o Putin cabled Moscow for instructions. Moscow was silent. Putin himself started burning papers in the courtyard.

o With a rifle in hand, he appeared before the crowd and told them to leave, that they would shoot. His bluff worked and the crowd left. This gave him a life-long fear of mobs and revolutions.

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Putin’s Background

o With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Putin was out of a job.

o Once a KGB agent, always a KGB agent. It is not something one can resign.

o Next – He went to work for the Mayor of St. Petersburg.

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Narrative - Putin’s Backgroundo He returned to St. Petersburg and went to work with former

law professor Anatoly Sobchak who was elected mayor. o Putin was in charge of the city’s foreign affairs to procure

foreign food in exchange for timber, oil and other commodities. The food never arrived. He then sold more commodities for millions of dollars, but that food was diverted to Moscow to prop up Yeltsin’s regime and avoid food riots (which nevertheless took place).

o Country suffered cigarette riots, vodka riots. Food was rationed.

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Putin & Mayor Anatoly Sobchak

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St. Petersburg Fontanka River

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Hermitage Museum/Winter Palace

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Katherine’s Palace

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Amber Room Restored

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Peter & Paul Fortress

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How He Came to Power

•Oligarch Boris Berezovsky, impressed by Putin’s integrity, introduced him to Boris Yeltsin in 1996. Putin moves to Moscow after his boss Sobchak loses election.

• 1st Yeltsin hired him to be in charge of the Kremlin’sTreasury – access to country’s wealth.• 2nd appointed him to head FSB. Used “Kompromat” against prosecutor general investigating Yeltsin.

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1999 Putin Appointed PM• 3rd Putin is appointed Prime Ministero Chechnya invades Dagestan. o Apartment & other bombings Aug 31& Sept. 4-16, 1999

blamed on Chechnya. o Putin tasked with reigning in Chechnya and the second

Chechnya war begins. “Wherever they are, we will find them, even if they are in the outhouses, we will destroy them!”

o Country is united – Voila!

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Narrative 1999 Apartment Bombings

August 31 – Sept 16, 1999 Bombings began. This was just 3 weeks after Putin appointed Prime Minister. Chechnya blamed.305 killed, 1,000 injured

One truck exploded, 4 buildings bombed. At 5th building FSB caught putting 3 50-kilo sacks marked “sugar” holding Hexogen (RDX) explosives, with wires and clock set for 5:30 a.m. Later FSB said it was a training exercise. Journalist Marina Salye who exposed this was threatened directly by Putin, & self-exiled into remote area of Russia.

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1999 Prime Minister & Acting President

No one thought Putin would last as Prime Minister. Yeltsin fired his PMs every few months.

4th Putin was appointed Acting President upon Yeltsin’s surprise resignation New Year’s Eve 1999. (Who is this guy?)

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Why He Came to Power

Named Successor for a reason: Putin guaranteed Yeltsin and his family freedom from prosecution for years of corruption.

Berezovsky, later in exile, regretted his promotion of Putin –as his biggest mistake.

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Berezovsky Flees to Spain, Moves to London

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Compared to Yeltsin: Decisive, Strong, Tough

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2000 Acting President, Then Wins Election

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Who Runs Russia with PutinBBC

Kremlin Inner Circle (Siloviki)• Ex-KGB or other security apparatus (bodyguards)

loyal but not necessarily qualified.• Associates from St. Petersburg’s Mayor’s Office.• Long-term loyalty has been demonstrated.

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Russian Foreign Policy 2018ianPart 2 Foreign Policy

Presented by Patti Nordskog Davis, B.A. History and Soviet Studies M.A. International Relations

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Dancing with the Tsars: Peter & Catherine were Great, but Ivan was Terrible

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Putin: Consolidation of Power 2000-2004

Elected to Presidency in March 2000 First decrees:

– Yeltsin and his Family given immunity- Nuclear first strike ban lifted.

Kursk submarine disaster brought bad press. Putin cracked down on media.

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Narrative: Consolidation of Power 2000-2004

•Grand Deal to 21 Oligarchs Made•2000 - Corruption charges brought twice against Putin from early 1990s – He threatened life of investigator and she flees for her life. Charges dropped.•Policy of the Power Vertical dismantled democratic institutions.• 2000 Upper House of Duma appointed, not elected.• Packed institutions with supporters & cronies.

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Narrative: Consolidation of Power 2000-2004

•2002 Moscow theater hostage crisis with 130 killed by gas used by special forces.•2003 Seizure of Oil Companies• Yukos Oil mogul Khodorkovsky jailed for 10 years for “tax

evasion”. Putin associate Igor Sechin gains Yukos in auction and merges it with his energy company Rosneft.

•2003 - Nationalized TV, Press Organizations with few exceptions.

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Putin Still Walks Like A KGB Agent

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Narrative: Consolidation of Power 2004-2008•2004 March 14th Putin elected to 2nd term.•September - Beslan school massacre – 300 children, teachers and parents taken hostage for 3 days, killed when troops storm the building. •2006 Murder of journalist Anna Politkovskaya shot on Putin’s birthday after her reports atrocities in Chechnya.•Economy improves due to high oil prices, Russia pays back debt. Russia joins WTO.2007 Territorial claims in Arctic increased, flag planted under North Pole. More troops deployed to Artic.2007 Garry Kasparov declares war on Putin and organizes opposition party. Rallies & marches held, arrests.

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2008 Job Swap

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President Medvedev 2008-20012•March 2008 Putin switches places with Dmitri Medvedev in Tandem Power Sharing. Medvedev becomes president and appoints Putin PM but is still in charge.

•2008 Russia invades Georgia and annexes Abkhazia and So. Ossetia.

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West Likes Liberal Democrat Medvedev

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Narrative: 2008-2012

•2010 Blue Bucket Protests Elite Privilege on the Streets•2011 post-Parliamentary elections sees civil unrest and protests. Dubbed the “Snow” or “White Revolution”. •Medvedev touted as high tech President, visiting Twitter HQ in California, TV shows him ordering an iPad.•Promised reforms.•2011 opened DAVOS

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Blue Bucket Protests Elite Privilege

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2008-2012 Focused on Image, but still in Control

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2008-2012 Adventurer, Scientist

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Protects Endangered Species

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2012 Job Swap Again (Castling)

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Post-Election Protests - Snow Revolution

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Narrative: Return to Presidency 2012-20182012 March Elections saw rioting and widespread protests. Hundreds arrested. Putin’s Term extended to six years from four.2012 February Pussy Riot group defiled cathedral in St. Petersburg during performance, put on trial and jailed.2012 Magnitsky Act Sanctions Russian Elite2012 Ban on American adoption of Russian Children (500 waiting disabled children) in Retaliation for Magnitsky Act.Bans criticisms of Stalin & Soviet Past. “Mistakes were made. Nothing more”. Rewrites History.

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Narrative 2012-20182013 Grants temporary asylum to Edward Snowden.2014 Euromaidan protests in Kyiv oust Viktor Yanukovych in coup. Poroshenko wins do-over/runoff.2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi on Black Sea2014 Russia seizes Crimea. Holds referendum.2014 Russian mercenaries “Little Green Men” invade E. Ukraine Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk). Down Malaysian airline. Death of Russian soldiers covered up in Russia.2014 Ruble collapses with weak oil prices.

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Ramzan Kadyrov Leader of Chechnya

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Narrative 2012-20182015 Opposition candidate Boris Nemtsov assassinated in Moscow as a “favor”. Putin hides out for ten days. Fears Ramzan Kadyrov leader of Chechnya who’s out of control and now in Moscow.2015 Christmas cyber attacks against Ukraine electrical grid brings blackouts.

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2012-2018 Narrative2015 Syria requests Russian military help to oust jihadis and rebels. Military units go from E. Ukraine to Syria. Uses air strikes and cruise missiles against all Assad foes. Assad uses chemical weapons – chlorine gas and sarin against his people. 2015 - Purge of close Kremlin loyalists and other inner circle siloviki. • Long-term associates being replaced by younger

generation who tell him what he wants to hear.2016 - Vows to protect Russian speaking populations wherever they reside. Puts Baltic states on alert.

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Narrative: 2012-2018•2016 Interference in US elections.

• US State election systems hacked and probed for voter info.

•In Russia, Alexy Navalny banned from running for office. Campaigns anyway on anti-corruption stance. Rubber Duck Protests

•2018 Announcement that Russia is going it alone. No longer looking to the West.

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National Guard – 400,000 StrongA Praetorian Guard to prevent a palace coup? Answers only to The President.

Duties:Crowd control to protect “public order”Monitors and breaks up illegal protesters.

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National Guard

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Protests in 2017

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“He is Not Our Tsar” Protests May 5, 2018

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Navalny Arrest 5 May 2018

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Grandma At Navalny Protests

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May 5, 2018 Protests

•Days before Putin inauguration. 1,6000 people arrested.

•Putin liked, but there’s little support for all other forms of government: Prime Minister, Cabinet or Federal Representatives (Duma or Appointed Governors).

•But Russians don’t like change.

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You’re Not Our Tsar!

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Narrative: 2018-2024Putin wins election to final six-year term, at age 63.

No succession plans in place. Discussions of succession plans are outright banned.

2018 Poisoning of Double Agent Sergei Skripal and daughter Yulia in Salisbury, UK causes international outrage and further sanctions.

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May 7, 2018 Inauguration or Coronation?

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Patriarch Kirill Presents Icon to President

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Putin Holds the World in His Hands

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NATO vs. Russian Nukes & Bases

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Why Did These Nations Join NATO?

Fear of Russian expansion into territories inside old Soviet Block after annexation of Crimea, invasion of Eastern Ukraine in 2014 and Georgia in 2008.

Provocative military incursions into Scandinavia and Baltics with subs and aircraft.

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Nations Feeling Threatened by Russia

Sweden – Russian submarine activity & nuclear waste.Norway – As a deterrent, regularly hosts war games with NATO. Agreed to map oil fields in Arctic with Russia. Shares a border with Russia. Denmark - Close proximity to Baltics and Russian territory. Also claims arctic territory and resources.Poland - Joined NATO, Pres. GW Bush pushed for nuclear shield to “counter Iran”.

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Russian Territory in Middle of the Baltic States

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Nations Feeling Threatened by Russia

GeorgiaAsked to join NATO, but vetoed by Angela Merkel.Threatened by Russian troops invading South Ossetia and Abkhazia 2008.

Baltic StatesLatvia, Lithuania and Estonia – last to join the USSR and the first to leave.

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Narrative: Nations Feeling Threatened

Baltics:Changing official language from Russian to original ethnic.Host to large populations of ethnic Russians.Access through Lithuania necessary to reach Kaliningrad, a Russian territory and home to military bases.Russia expected to meddle in 2018 elections.

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Nations Feeling Threatened by Russia

Ukraine

Not a NATO member yet.

Kiev/Kyiv first capital of Russia.

Part of the Imperial Russian Empire, Nazi and Soviet Empires.

Starvation by Stalin’s Collectivization.

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Ukraine Narrative

History – Kiev first capital of Russia, Slavic tribes.Part of the Russian Empire, Nazi and Soviet Empires.

Orange revolution 2004 – NGOs and US Government promoted democratic movements promising economic prosperity.

Hostage to Russian gas and oil pipelines. Maidan Revolution, pivot to W. Europe and ouster of Russian

approved President Yanukovych fled to E. Ukraine in “coup”. Poroshenko won election May 25, 2014. Seeking NATO

membership, economic and military help. Election deemed invalid by Russia because of Western interference.

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Narrative: Ukraine Invaded by Mercenaries from Russia

Ethnic Russian majority in Eastern UkraineVoted to join RussiaInvaded by “Little Green Men” – private mercenary army. Plausible deniability, but heavy artillery caught returning to Russia.Rebels shot down Dutch Flight M370

Minsk II Feb 2015 cease-fire talks overseen by OSCE in response to US intention of arming Ukraine.

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Ukraine

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Foreign Policy is Implemented by:•Military•Arms sales to countries where US has pulled back.•Propaganda (weaponized information)•Cyber hackers•Energy discounts - Pipeline systems carrying oil & gas, nuclear power plant deals.•Foreign Ministry and Diplomatic Corps.

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Foreign Policy is Implemented by:

•Intelligence Officers and Counterintelligence•Lawyers and International Law, Interpol•United Nations/Security Council•Treaties•Economic Alliances•Financial Loans (Venezuela, Marie Le Pen, etc.)

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Narrative Putin’s Foreign Policy Tools

• Military assets – Sea, Air, Land, Space and Cyberspace• 2014 aggressive military close encounters. Told to

expect more, that “Russia is back”• 2014 – Tested capabilities & new weapons in Syria.• Non-state, private army, mercenaries (Little Green Men)

– plausible deniability. Secretive burials at home.• March 2018 Election – Saber-rattling, threatening to

nuke Florida (for domestic consumption and send Pres. Trump a message).

• Global arm sales second only to U.S.

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Narrative: Foreign Policy Tools• Cyberattacks against:

- Institutions & - Infrastructure - Ukraine suffered rolling blackouts in 2015. - Estonia hacked in 2007 – now have most advanced protections in place.- To influence elections, change polls, hack voter rolls- Sow political discord

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Narrative: Putin’s Foreign Policy Tools• Pipelines carrying Oil & Gas

• Natural Gas Pipelines to EU via Ukraine. To Far East to supply China, Korea and Japan.

• Used to blackmail and control internal politics in Ukraine. • Upcoming Pipeline deal with Germany “Nord Stream”

would supply energy bypassing Ukraine, making it easier to coerce Ukraine in future.

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Narrative: Foreign Policy Tools

Fake News/Propaganda Russia Today (RT) outside RussiaSputnik RadioFacebook, Twitter and other Social Media

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Narrative Foreign Policy Tools, con’t.

UN Security Council Veto.Use of Bilateral Agreements “Mutual Legal Assistance Treaties (MLTAs) how countries cooperate on legal matters (detention, extradition etc.).Political Assassinations at home and abroad.Political Poisonings in Foreign Countries.G20 Membership. (Ousted from G-8)

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Narrative Foreign Policy Tools

•Interpol’s Red Notice & Alerts: to punish domestic opponents who flee abroad as well as non-Russians (Bill Browder).• Abuse of foreign courts & law enforcement.• Gives legitimacy & credibility to prosecution of enemies &

undermines accused’s reputation.

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Foreign Policy Tools

Friends with Autocratic Dictators – for mutual political support in international & economic organizations.

Iran, Syria, Pakistan, China, Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, Turkey, Egypt, Hungary, Belarus

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**Cyberattacks Against U.S.•Feb 2018 indictment by FBI against 13 Russians, 3 companies for interference in US 2016 Election.• Group of Russians posed as Americans from Yahoo data

breach, opened financial accounts (PayPal) in their names.• Spent thousands dollars buying political ads• Purchased server space in US to hide Russian identify• Organized & promoted political rallies in US• Disparaged Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz & Marco Rubio• Promoted Bernie Sanders & Donald Trump• Encouraged discord over racial tensions, gun control, etc.

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Guccifer 2.0 Revealed

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Guccifer 2.0

•Leaked trove of docs from DNC to WikiLeaks•Led to resignation of Debbie Wasserman-Schultz•Used Russian server, tracked to Russian intelligence GRU

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Cyberwarfare

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Cyberwarfare – Fancy Bear & Cozy Bear

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Narrative: Fancy Bear & Cozy Bear

Fancy Bear is believed to be run by Russian Military intelligence GRU. Targets governments, military, security, NATO and Macron’s campaign. Active starting in 2000s.

Cozy Bear is identified as Russian Intelligence SVR and perhaps FSB state security with different projects & different user groups. Plant malware through back door vulnerabilities. Targeted diplomatic organizations & NGOs,Pentagon, DNC, Norwegian government in 2017 and Dutch government in 2017, etc.

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Narrative: Troll Farm in St. PetersburgInternet Research Agency in St. Petersburg indicted by FBIStrategic goal to sow discord in US political system.Workers active during U.S. time zones.Used stolen IDs of real Americans.Targeted purple states.Used bots: automatic or semi-auto accounts to tweet & retweet thousands of times.Used trolls: sowing discord by starting quarrels/upsetting people to provoke into emotional response.

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Fake News in 2016 US Elections, Made in a Georgian Troll Factory

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Clinton & Uranium One

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Examples of Cyberwarfare

•February 2017 – NotPetya malware outbreak affected Ukraine’s Central Bank, main airport in Kyiv and the Chernobyl Power Plant.

•March 2017 – 2 Russians indicted for hacking into Yahoo & stealing data from 500 million users.•April 2018 – US & UK accused Russia of attacks targeting routers made by Cisco.•March 2018 - campaign to infiltrate critical infrastructure including US & European nuclear power plants.

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Kompromat

Use of Kompromat – sting operation using “honey traps” or other enticements, videos & exposure of compromising situations. Used to blackmail or discredit opponents or critics, or to gain favors.

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10 Russian Spies in West and US (Anna Chapman)Exposed by Col. A. Poteyev in 2011 who was sentenced to

25 years

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Narrative: Anna Chapman

•Did espionage for SVR (Russian Foreign Intelligence) in U.S.•Deported to Russia in 10-spy swap in July 2010•Arrested after accepting fake passport by FBI•Targeting senior member of Obama’s cabinet in honey trap• Holds Master’s degree in economics, now a TV star.

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Russian Lawyer Veselnitskaya in U.S.

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Narrative Natalia Veselnitskaya•Lobbyist in D.C. against Magnitsky Act – Targets U.S. Congress to repeal it.•Met with Trump Team to lift Sanctions – gained mtg after promising incriminating docs on HRClinton•Works w/ lawyers defending Russian companies, officials & oligarchs affected by sanctions in U.S. Courts.•Informant for Top Kremlin Prosecutor General admitted after previous denials.•Her emails were sent to Khodorkovsky who released them.

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Political Poisonings

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Narrative: Foes are Exiled, Poisoned, Imprisoned or Killed

Who Gets Whacked, Imprisoned or Smeared in the news?-Critical or investigative reporters-Rights Advocates-Opposition politicians-Russians who threaten Putin’s Image or Russia’s Image

How Does This Relate to Foreign Policy? – It occurs on Foreign Soil and Affects Innocent Bystanders, the Country’s Police and Court System

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History of the Use of PoisonsWhy Use Poison?

It is not subtle and sends a message – “don’t double-cross us”.Not always traceable.Plausible deniability by government officials.Killings outside Russia was given legal sanction by Russia’s Parliament in 2006.

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Poisonings

Use of nuclear material – thallium, polonium contaminating large areas.Use of nerve agents - Novichok.Use of banned chemical agents sarin, ricin are favorites.Innocents are sometimes affected.

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Narrative: Poisoning of Skripals in UK March 2018 Before Elections

Double KGB agent exchanged for Russian spies in England Sergei Skripal lived in Salisbury, UK when his daughter came to visit from Moscow. They were both poisoned by Novichok, a military nerve agent developed in Russia. Left him in a coma, she has been released from hospital, in hiding. Reason for Timing is unclear.

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Narrative: Poisoning of Skripals in UK

A rogue attack by GRU or ordered by Putin himself?. Remarkable lack of restraint, just before Presidential elections.

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Poisoned with Nerve Agent

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Novichok Contamination in Town

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Narrative: Did Moscow Do It?

Why does world suspect Russia?• History of use of poisons• Agent invented and developed in Russia• Military grade• Motive to use it.• Conflicting statements made.• Underestimated unity of Western governments

condemning Russia

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Narrative: Consequences of Skripal Poisoning

• Boycott planned for 2018 FIFA World Cup in Moscow• Russian Diplomats and families expelled• Further sanctions imposed

• Message sent to Russia – this type of barbaric, uncivilized behavior will not be tolerated.

• Did Putin miscalculate?

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AssassinationsP. KLEBNIKOV FORBES EDITOR IN MOSCOW SHOT TO DEATH 2004

OLIGARCH BORIS BEREZOVSKY BROUGHT PUTIN TO POWER THEN– EXILED TO LONDON, FOUND HANGED

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Polonium Poisoning in LondonEX-KGB AGENT POISONED WITH POLONIUM IN LONDON (AFTER LAST STRAW ACCUSATION MADE).

A. LUGUVOI & D. KOUTUN ASSASSINS REWARDED IN RUSSIA FOR DEED

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Boris Nemtsov – Gunned Down in Moscow 2015

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Out of Control Chechnya’s Ramzan Kadyrov

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State Sponsored AssassinationsANNA POLITKOVSKAYA POISONED IN 2004, THEN SHOT IN 2006. WROTE ABOUT WAR ATROCITIES IN CHECHNYA. KILLED ON PUTIN’S BIRTHDAY.

MIKHAIL LESIN, FOUND DEAD IN WASH., D.C. HOTEL OF TRAUMA NOV. 2015. FELL OUT WITH A PUTIN ASSOCIATE. HELPED STATE GAIN CONTROL OF MEDIA.

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In Putin’s CrosshairsGARRY KASPAROV FEARS FOR LIFE, PUTIN CRITIC, HUMAN RIGHTS ADVOCATE-EXILED

KHODORKOVSKY OLIGARCH TURNED PRO-DEM CRITIC W/ NGO IN EXILE

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Presidential Candidate Viktor Yushchenko of Ukraine Poisoned, but Alive, Wins Runoff Anyway

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Crimea Annexed 2014

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Military Exercises Near Crimea

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Use of Natural Gas in Foreign Relations

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Narrative: Pipeline Diplomacy

German Gas supplies hostage to pipelines through Belarus and Poland to the North and Ukraine, Slovakia and Czech Republic to the South. Ukraine gets gas from Gazprom which doubled prices after 2004 Orange Revolution. They refused to pay, and Russia cut the supply. So, Ukraine diverted the supply meant for Germany for itself.

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Global Election Meddling

Russian propaganda supported:•Brexit•Catalan Separatists in Spain•German fears from Muslim migrants•Loans to France’s National Front (Le Pen)•Released DNC’s John Podesta e-mails to derail Democratic Party.•Fake news stories about Hillary’s health.

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Decay in US-Russian Relations

2011 – Relations turned cold after Libya’s Qaddafi overthrown & killed.2011-2012 Snow revolution protests after parl. elections in Russia, U.S. NGOs ousted for pro-democracy activities.2012 – Magnitsky Act passed.2013 – Edward Snowden given asylum.2014 – Crimea annexed, E. Ukraine seized, Syria involvement.2016 – U.S. Election meddling2018 – Poisonings in U.K.

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HungaryOrban of Hungary a populist, nationalist, anti-immigrant, anti-EU. He cozied up with Putin. Won in 2018.Hungarians disenchanted with EU prosperity – thought government would take care of them. Instead had brain-drain and competition with capitalist economy.Got gas deals from Russians and loans of 12 billion for nuclear energy.(Newsweek)

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Relations with Belarus (White Russia)

President Lukashenko has lifetime tenure since 1994.A Putin loyalist.Part of “All the Russias” – The Great, Little and White. A Russian people, but a variant. Joined Russian Empire under Catherine the Great

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Narrative: BelarusDeclared independence in 1991, joined Commonwealth of Independent States on Dec. 26, 1991. Almost joined with Russia as one country in 1999 “Treaty of the Formation of a Union State”.2014 – Lukashenko revived Belarussian identity and delivered a speech in Belarussian rather than Russian which most people speak. “We are not Russian – We are Belarussian”.Has resisted allowing Russia to build a new air base there.Remains neutral re: annexation of Crimea and E. Ukraine.Has had trade disputes, a border dispute and more tolerant of dissidents sparking weakening ties with Russia.

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Narrative: Central Asia and Caucasus

Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan sit between Russia, China and Turkey. Muslim countries in south have been in the Russian Empire for centuries. Soviet empire brought modernity, education, health care, transportation & stability at the expense of religious repression.They remained more loyal to Russia than Slavic republics of Belarus and Ukraine after fall of S.U.Soviet infrastructure has not been maintained, and states in the region have turned to the US & China for investments.

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Relations with Kazakhstan•President Nazarbayev in power for last 25 years, a Putin loyalist.•Home of Baikonur Space Center & host of Syrian peace talks.•Ethnic Russians occupy the north making nation nervous after Russian invasion of E. Ukraine.

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Narrative: Kazakhstan

•2018 Changing alphabet from Cyrillic to Latin based – for closer economic ties with the West.•Approved Visa-free entry to U.S. citizens riling the Russians.•Seeking investment from China.•Prosperous due to oil and wheat/flour exports.

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Soyuz Supplies ISS, but Dragon & Cygnus Do Too

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Relations with Uzbekistan•President Karinov has been in power for 25 years so far, a Putin loyalist.•Holds nearly half the population of Central Asia.•Also seeking investment from China.•In competition with Kazakhstan.

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Loyal to Ally Syria

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Narrative: Russia’s Intervention in SyriaGoals:

• Keep ally Assad and his regime in power at all costs.

• Stability essential over human rights. Culture of

“Iron Fist”. Allows use of chemical weapons.

“Wipe them off the map” – a lesson to others.

• Maintain military foothold on Mediterranean.

• Protect Latakia & naval and air base at

Tartus on Syria’s coast on Mediterranean.

• Test own military strength and effectiveness.

• Counter American Influence in Mideast.

• Leadership in Peace Talks.

• Defeated ISIS, now ridding Syria of other rebel forces.

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Putin Meeting with Military Advisors

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ArcticThe Arctic is an ocean surrounded by continents. Antarctic is a continent surrounded by ocean. Climate change is affecting both poles.The Arctic is of national strategic interest for Russia for resources, shipping & security.New air base built. Four others planned.

5 Arctic states have claims: Canada, Denmark (Greenland) Norway, Russia and the U.S.

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Narrative: ArcticClimate change is opening up the arctic to human activity & commerce. New transportation routes are opening. An Arctic Council has added observer reps which Russia sees as a threat to its interests and has responded by building new military bases to defend its territory and resource claims. Russia wants to keep only 5 arctic states in the discussion about the region to the exclusion of China & others.

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2018 New Arctic Base Revealed

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Artic Bases

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Artic Russian Claims

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Narrative: Artic Plans•May contain 13% of world’s undiscovered oil & 30% of undiscovered gas•Fishing prospects unclear.•Access to Northern Sea Route (Northeast Passage)•Long-term development needs communications infrastructure, security, & power.•Proposing floating nuclear power stations.•China wants to help build an arctic “Silk Road”. Has signed intent to build a deep water port at Archangel connected to a railway. Russia not enthused about partnering w/ China.

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Artic Drilling

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Artic Ocean Passage

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Northern Military Bases

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Submarines Patrol Under the Ice

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Plans for Military Modernization in Arctic

• New nuclear submarines (don’t have the budget)• 40 bases in Arctic requiring shipyards, 16 deep water

ports, 13 airfields, 10 air defense stations across arctic coast, 10 search and rescue support stations and ice breaking capabilities. Source: Navy commander Viktor Chirkov July 2015 and INYT

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Narrative: Russia Officially Claims North Pole

•In 2001, Russia claimed the North Pole, but was told there was not enough evidence to concede it to Russia.•In 2015, Russia filed formal claim with U.N. for 463,000 sq. miles up to North Pole.•Based on Lomonosov Ridge (Demark says this is extension of Greenland) & Mendeleev Ridge extensions of continental shelf.

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Russia Claims the North Pole

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Arctic

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Alliance with China

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Alliance with China•China as an economic powerhouse has upper hand in relationship. •Agree not to criticize each other.•China respects borders with Siberia (for now).•Trade partners. •Energy pipeline deals.•Future conflict over resources & territory possible. China eager to invest in Arctic endeavors.

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What Can West Expect of Russia?

•Continued military and political aggression against West.•Escalation of propaganda machine – information wars.•Hacking of infrastructure and political institutions.•Promotion of ties with other autocrats.

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Putin’s Challenges

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Narrative: Putin’s Challenges

It’s hard to maintain control & loyalty of elite who are jockeying for future succession. This may bring instability. Before, those around Putin competed to please him. If succession is an issue, we will see them compete with each other to show their loyalty & that they can protect the Siloviki, oligarchs, & military backers. Putin will need protection from prosecution like Yeltsin did.

Will he be ousted, or will he become President for Life?

Hard to neutralize opposition, without repression and restriction of access to social media.

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Narrative: Putin’s Challenges

Putin has no interest in letting go of power. He thinks the West out to get him. But his age will ultimately become a factor.

He wants Russia to get the respect it deserves and now it is. His policies have worked.

Tensions with West make him more popular up to a point. Sanctions are hurting him and his elite supporters.

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Narrative: Russia’s FutureFor Russia to prosper, Putin needs to reform, modernize, & make Russia an attractive place to invest. Corruption is not likely to change when so many benefit from the system.

To get the sanctions lifted, he needs to tone down his aggressiveness, land grabs and rhetoric, but don’t expect him to give up Crimea or E. Ukraine.

Risk of further misadventures rises when he’s not doing well at home.

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US Policy towards RussiaPresident Trump avoids criticizing Putin, But the US Congress and the Courts have a history of punishing Russia.Strengthen Western alliances and present a unified front.Go after dirty money.Hold talks to reduce nuclear weapons.Countering Russian propaganda and protecting the electrical grid and other infrastructure needs higher priority.US policy should continue to be to push back, but cooperate where we can & engage with civilian outreach. Openness and cooperation on military and security objectives will help promote global stability.---------END-------------

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Top Ten OligarchsBoris Berezovsky – moved to UK in 2000, granted asylum in 2003, found dead by hanging in 2013. Suspicious circumstances.Rem Viyakhirev -Vagit Alekperov – owns LukoilGusinsky – fled to Spain, then UKAnatoly Chubais – owns Rusnano. Helped privatize Russia.Yuri Luzhkov – Mayor of Moscow 1997-2010. Accused of corruption w/ billionaire wife. Turned against Medvedev.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky – CEO of Yukos until 2004, turned on Putin, jailed for 10 years, pardoned, fled to UK. Outspoken head of prodemocracy NGO.Mikhail Fridman – owned TNK-BP oil co. sold to Rosneft.Vladimir Potanin – Owns 30% of Nickel Co., sponsored Sochi Olympics. Invented “Loans for Shares” scheme.Alexander Smolensky -

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Who Runs Russia?

Most Trusted Colleagues revealed in a Putin interview:Nikolai Patrushev – Director of FSB from 1999-2008, then Secy of Russian security councilDmitry Medvedev – President from 2008-2012 – Tandem with Putin. Now PM again. Alexei Kudrin – Finance Minister until 2011. Advisor on economic matters.

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Who Runs Russia with PutinIgor Sechin – CEO of Rosneft (state oil company) and senior positions in Presidential AdministrationVyacheslav Volodin – a top aideDmitry Peskov – Putin’s official spokesmanSergei Ivanov- Chief of Staff and head of Presidential Administration since 2011. Served in Security Council. Also served as Defense Minister and Depy Prime Minister. One of most trusted in inner circle - SACKED in August 2016.

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Who Runs Russia with PutinReplaced by Anton Vaino, an Estonian. Part of purge of longtime allies in favor of young, faceless but utterly loyal bureaucrats. Politico Magazine

Arkady Rotenberg – runs major infrastructure projects (Sochi Olympics in 2014)Sergei Shoigu – Defense Minister – Party Official in 1990s and United Russia (Putin’s Party) 2001-2005.

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Merkel: “Putin Lives in His Own World”

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Who Runs Russia with Putin

Vyacheslav Volodin – Helps run Russian politics since 2011 that saw demonstrations. Established All-Russian Popular Front that formulates and implements leadership’s policiesSecurity Council and Presidential Administration.Viktor Ivanov sackedVladimir Yakunin head of Railways demotedImmune: businessmen Arkady & Boris Rotenberg, Gennady Timenchenko, Yury KocalchukViktor Zolotov – former bodyguard – now heads Nat Guard

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2012-2018 Narrative

2015 Purge of close Kremlin loyalist and confidant Yakunin (former Railways chief) and other inner circle siloviki (from security apparatus, St. Petersburg associates).2015 Purge of Medvedev neo-liberal allies, in favor of Rosneft’s Igor Sechin (siloviki).2015 – Russia bans yoga, considered a religious cult.Interference in US elections – disinformation, fake stories on Facebook and Twitter, false rallies, hacking of Hillary Clinton’s emails and exposure through WikiLeaks discredits the DNC and its officials. Also stories placed against Trump campaign.US State election systems hacked and probed for voter info. No known actual vote changes made.In Russia, Alexy Navalny prohibited from running for office. Campaigns anyway on anti-corruption stance, promoting self and rallies on social media.

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Former Warsaw Pact Nations Now In NATO

Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic – joined NATO in 1999

Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania joined NATO in 2004

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined NATO in 2004

Albania and Croatia joined NATO in 2009

Montenegro asked to join NATO in December 2015

Georgia tried to join NATO, but it was vetoed by Germany.

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Top Ten Oligarchs After Gusinsky’s Arrest in 2000

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Story About Gusinsky & Berezovsky & Oligarch Wars

Berezovsky – Made his money as a car salesman – Lada brand, then car dealerships. Bought up cars with little money down, high inflation meant he could pay off loans at little cost, selling them at 600% profit. Competition routinely shot up his dealerships to intimidate him.Oligarch Wars – 1990s – The Wild EastA bomb went off next to his Mercedes on way to work, decapitated his driver, he fell into

the street with burning face and hands. His friends at the Club nicknamed him “Smokey”. He bore his scars as a badge of pride.Berezovsky was a member of The Family (close to Yeltsin & Family) & helped him win the 1996 election by promoting him on his TV station. He wanted to buy up media giant ORT (Russian TV) owned by Gusinsky who was reluctant to sell. Yeltsin’s personal armed security team followed Gusinsky from his dacha to his HQ in 4 vehicles & later that day sent in a busload of armed security to intimidate him. Event called “Faces in the Snow” where a dozen of Gusinsky’s bodyguards were ordered face down on the frozen parking lot for hours while helpless Moscow police looked on. Gusinsky got the message and sold ORT to Berezovsky.

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Foreign Policy Tools, con’t.• Financial Opacity• Shell companies shield financial transactions and

launder money.• Use of off-shore accounts• Payment with Bitcoins to launder money• Buying real estate in U.S., UK, France & Elsewhere to

shield assets and launder money

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Russia’s Challenges

•Economy is based on commodities, not diversified.

•Institutions of government are not independent - ruled by the Executive Administration.

•Media is not independent mostly controlled by gov‘t.

•Lack of investment in education, healthcare and infrastructure.

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Challenges•Russian/Soviet Empire has shrunk, but is still so large, it has 6 time zones. Far East feels abandoned by Moscow. Difficult to keep it together.

•Far East and Siberia have been depopulated.

•Lack of roads - reliance on railroads and airports.

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Narrative: Assassinations & Suspicious Deaths

Stanislav Markelov human rights attorney shot in head in 2009 after being kidnapped from home in Chechnya.Natalia Estemirova human rights journalist kidnapped from home in Chechnya and killed in 2009.Litvinenko authored Kremlin expose “Blowing up Russia” in asylum in UK poisoned 2006 with polonium.

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Narrative: History of the Use of Poisons

Poison has been a favorite tool of Russian intelligence for over 100 years and in Russia for over 500 years.1917 – Mystic cult figure Rasputin in Tsarist’s court was poisoned, stabbed, shot, rolled up in a carpet and finally drowned.1928 – Biochemist Grigory Mairanovsky worked in secret to develop tasteless, odorless, colorless poisons.1954 – A defector described a secret lab near KGB Lubyanka HQ and experiments on living people. An arsenal of lethal, hard-to-trace poisons were developed and are still in use.1971 – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn survived a ricin poisoning attempt. He later endorsed Putin and moved back to Russia from exile in the US.1978 – Bulgarian Georgi Markov was killed on Waterloo Bridge in London with an umbrella tipped with a pellet of ricin.

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Narrative: History of the Use of Poisons, con’t.1995 – Russian banker Ivan Kivelidi & his secretary died of cadmium found on his telephone handset.2000 – Anatoly Sobchak Putin’s mentor and former Mayor then working for Kremlin was poisoned while in Kaliningrad. Poison placed on bedside lightbulb which vaporized when heated killing him. Unknown assailants, but he was not popular.2002 – Arab terrorist Khattab died in Chechnya after opening a letter laced with a form of sarin.2004 – Anna Politkovskaya, reporter critical of Putin, drank poisoned tea on an Aeroflot flight, but survived. She was later shot and killed on Putin’s 54th birthday.2004 – Sept. 5, Viktor Yushchenko candidate for President of Ukraine poisoned with dioxin mixed in his rice. Sought treatment in Austria and survived, but severely disfigured. (Suspects were probably Ukrainian not Russian).

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Narrative: History of the Use of Poisons, con’t.

2008 – Karinna Moskalenko, a lawyer who took cases to the European Court of Human Rights fell ill from mercury found in her car.Current Day – Garry Kasparov, former chess champion and now human rights advocate travels with his own chef and only drinks bottled water that he carries with him. William F. (Bill) Browder takes extensive security measures and expects attempts on his life for the Magnitsky Act and other perceived offenses.

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Narrative: Poisoning of Skripals in UK March 2018Double KGB agent exchanged for Russian spies in England Sergei Skripal had been quietly living in Salisbury, UK when his daughter came to visit him from Moscow. They were both poisoned by Novichok, a military grade nerve agent developed in a Russian lab (verified by a defected Russian who developed it). The Novichok was believed either brought inadvertently by daughter in a gift from friends or placed on a doorknob at his residence. After being in a prolonged coma, she has recovered and he is improving. First responders and others also suffered effects from exposure.

Why does world suspect Russia?History of use of poisonsAgent invented and developed in RussiaMilitary gradeMotive to use it.Conflicting statements madeUnderestimated resolve and unity of Western governments condemning Russia

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Youth Army Created in 2016

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2016 Youth Army Created for Ages 14-18

Youth Army – A military youth program to promote patriotism to Motherland, not based on ideology.

To train citizens before they join the army.Taught to assemble assault rifles and how to shoot.Learn parachute jumping, military history & tactics.

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Relations with UkraineKiev vs. Kyiv Russian spelling vs. Ukrainian spelling – in use more and more as Ukraine tries to pull away from Russia’s influence.

Ukraine plagued by corruption, protests, wants to join EU for prosperity.

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Oligarch Oleg Deripaska

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Narrative: Oligarch & Philanthropist Oleg Deripaska

•Aluminum Magnate, owns Basic Element and President of En+ Group & United Co. Rusal. Worth $5.2 billion in 2017.•Close ties to Paul Manafort. Paid him $10 million per year from 2005-2009 to promote Russian interests in politics (Ukraine), business & media in Europe & US.•2016 paid Manafort to provide briefings on Trump Campaign.•Affected by Sanctions

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Russia created Joint Strategic Command North (JSCN) from Northern Fleet

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Includes naval infantry brigade, air defense division, Arctic mechanized division, coastal missile defense system and missile regiments to outlying archipelagos in the Arctic Ocean.