Rural Crime Performance Information

8 September 2015

Total Crime (Rural and Non-Rural)1st August 2012 to 31st July 2015

• Rural total crime remains within the control lines but the higher crime levels first seen in March, have continued. CDI has contributed to this but volumes have not been impacted by festivals

• Non-rural total crime has been on an upward trend since October 2014 (around the time CDI started), has exceeded the UCL since March and continues to rise

• The rural crime spikes each August can be attributed to Boomtown, whilst the spikes each September are due to Bestival (whose beat location is now classed as rural)

• Although rural total crime is within the control lines, during July the UCL was breached in five sub crime categories:

•VAP with injury•VAP without injury•Serious sexual offences•Arson•Public order

• These sub categories also breached the UCL for non-rural crimes, along with possession of weapons and miscellaneous crimes against society

Total Crime (Non-Rural)

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12

/ A

ug

12

/ S

ep

12

/ O

ct

12

/ N

ov

12

/ D

ec

13

/ J

an

13

/ F

eb

13

/ M

ar

13

/ A

pr

13

/ M

ay

13

/ J

un

13

/ J

ul

13

/ A

ug

13

/ S

ep

13

/ O

ct

13

/ N

ov

13

/ D

ec

14

/ J

an

14

/ F

eb

14

/ M

ar

14

/ A

pr

14

/ M

ay

14

/ J

un

14

/ J

ul

14

/ A

ug

14

/ S

ep

14

/ O

ct

14

/ N

ov

14

/ D

ec

15

/ J

an

15

/ F

eb

15

/ M

ar

15

/ A

pr

15

/ M

ay

15

/ J

un

15

/ J

ul

To

tal

Cri

me

Count crime Ave crime UCL crime LCL crime

Total Crime (Rural)

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

12

/ A

ug

12

/ S

ep

12

/ O

ct

12

/ N

ov

12

/ D

ec

13

/ J

an

13

/ F

eb

13

/ M

ar

13

/ A

pr

13

/ M

ay

13

/ J

un

13

/ J

ul

13

/ A

ug

13

/ S

ep

13

/ O

ct

13

/ N

ov

13

/ D

ec

14

/ J

an

14

/ F

eb

14

/ M

ar

14

/ A

pr

14

/ M

ay

14

/ J

un

14

/ J

ul

14

/ A

ug

14

/ S

ep

14

/ O

ct

14

/ N

ov

14

/ D

ec

15

/ J

an

15

/ F

eb

15

/ M

ar

15

/ A

pr

15

/ M

ay

15

/ J

un

15

/ J

ul

To

tal

Cri

me

Count crime Ave crime UCL crime LCL crime

Total Crime (Rural excluding Boomtown and Bestival)1st August 2012 to 31st July 2015

• When Boomtown and Bestival are removed from total crime in rural beats, the trend since March follows a very similar pattern to that for non-rural beats. April saw a small reduction but has been followed by increases in recent months, with crime levels exceeding the upper control limit

Total Crime (Rural excluding Boomtown and Bestival)

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

150012

/ A

ug

12 /

Sep

12 /

Oct

12 /

Nov

12 /

Dec

13 /

Jan

13 /

Feb

13 /

Mar

13 /

Apr

13 /

May

13 /

Jun

13 /

Jul

13 /

Aug

13 /

Sep

13 /

Oct

13 /

Nov

13 /

Dec

14 /

Jan

14 /

Feb

14 /

Mar

14 /

Apr

14 /

May

14 /

Jun

14 /

Jul

14 /

Aug

14 /

Sep

14 /

Oct

14 /

Nov

14 /

Dec

15 /

Jan

15 /

Feb

15 /

Mar

15 /

Apr

15 /

May

15 /

Jun

15 /

Jul

To

tal

Cri

me

Count crime - festival Ave crime w ithout festival UCL crime w ithout festival LCL crime w ithout festival

Total Crime (Rural and Non-Rural)1st April to 31st July Comparisons

• Comparing April to July 2015, to the same period last year, total crime in rural beats is up by 34.2%, against an increase of 38.4% for non-rural

• The increases in violent crimes, sexual offences and theft offences are slightly higher for rural beats and are also up for public order offences. All other crime types have seen smaller increases than those experienced in the non-rural beats

• Within theft offences, non-dwelling burglary has risen by 16.9% in rural beats, compared to a 3.2% increase in non-rural beats. Shoplifting has risen by 18.8% in rural beats but fallen by 5.8% in non-rural areas. Vehicle offences have seen a smaller increase in rural beats, 13.5% compared to a 27.5% rise in non-rural beats

• Violence against the person and public order offences are the main crime types to have been impacted by CDI

YTD 31 July 2014

YTD 31 July 2015

% Difference

819 1607 96.2%

80 168 110.0%

7 8 14.3%

1982 2177 9.8%

729 819 12.3%

201 142 -29.4%

24 19 -20.8%

156 423 171.2%

67 93 38.8%

4065 5456 34.2%

2 Sexual Offences

3 Robbery

Rural Beats

1 Violence Against the Person

6 Drug Offences

7 Possession of Weapons Offences

4 Theft Offences

5 Criminal Damage and Arson Offences

Total

8 Public Order Offences

9 Miscellaneous Crimes Against Society

YTD 31 July 2014

YTD 31 July 2015

% Difference

6808 13281 95.1%

637 1256 97.2%

181 229 26.5%

13479 14412 6.9%

4647 5448 17.2%

1657 1321 -20.3%

198 301 52.0%

1575 3954 151.0%

436 794 82.1%

29618 40996 38.4%

Non-Rural Beats

1 Violence Against the Person

Total

6 Drug Offences

7 Possession of Weapons Offences

8 Public Order Offences

9 Miscellaneous Crimes Against Society

2 Sexual Offences

3 Robbery

4 Theft Offences

5 Criminal Damage and Arson Offences

Outcomes (Rural and Non-Rural)1st April to 31st July 2015

Outcomes by group (shown as a percentage of all crime)

• The FAT outcome rate for rural beats this year to date is 14%, (a reduction on 21% achieved year to July 2014) compared to 20% for non-rural beats (year to July 2014 was 29%)

• The proportion of ‘Victim Based’ NFAs is lower for rural beats than non-rural (19% compared to 21%), but is higher for ‘Investigation Based’ NFAs (55% compared to 47%)

• CAVEAT: It is difficult to compare one year against another for outcomes because if an outcome is amended on an occurrence that was validated last year, the outcome will no longer be reflected in last year’s figures. This year’s figures will now be impacted by the change

Non Rural

20%

2%

21%47%

9%

1. Formal Action Taken2. Formal Action Not Appropriate3. No Formal Action - Victim Based4. No Formal Action - Investigation BasedUnder investigation

Rural

14%

2%

19%

55%

10%

1. Formal Action Taken2. Formal Action Not Appropriate3. No Formal Action - Victim Based4. No Formal Action - Investigation BasedUnder investigation

Out of Court Disposals (Rural)1st April to 31st July Comparisons

1st April to 31st July 2015All FAT

OutcomesOOCD

OOCD as % of All FAT Outcomes

OOCD

1 Violence Against the Person 298 111 37.25%

2 Sexual Offences 12 1 8.33% 58

3 Robbery 2 0 0.00% B2 Conditional Caution 18

4 Theft Offences 144 46 31.94% Community Resolution 147

5 Criminal Damage & Arson Offences 59 34 57.63% E1 Penalty Notice For Disorder 15

6 Drug Offences 145 95 65.52% F1 Street Warning - Cannabis Possession 54

7 Possession of Weapons Offences 7 1 14.29% Youth Caution 25

8 Public Order Offences 70 26 37.14% Youth Conditional Caution 2

9 Misc Crimes Against Society 23 5 21.74% Youth Restorative Disposal (YRD) 0

Total 760 319 41.97% 319Total

B1 Simple Caution

1st April to 31st July 2014All FAT

OutcomesOOCD

OOCD as % of All FAT Outcomes

OOCD

1 Violence Against the Person 311 149 47.91%

2 Sexual Offences 20 1 5.00% 67

3 Robbery 1 0 0.00% B2 Conditional Caution 14

4 Theft Offences 160 48 30.00% Community Resolution 194

5 Criminal Damage & Arson Offences 73 42 57.53% E1 Penalty Notice For Disorder 20

6 Drug Offences 175 127 72.57% F1 Street Warning - Cannabis Possession 84

7 Possession of Weapons Offences 20 9 45.00% Youth Caution 21

8 Public Order Offences 70 30 42.86% Youth Conditional Caution 2

9 Misc Crimes Against Society 31 4 12.90% Youth Restorative Disposal (YRD) 8

Total 861 410 47.62% 410Total

B1 Simple Caution

Out of Court Disposals (Non-Rural)1st April to 31st July Comparisons

1st April to 31st July 2015All FAT

OutcomesOOCD

OOCD as % of All FAT Outcomes

OOCD

1 Violence Against the Person 2570 712 27.70% 0

2 Sexual Offences 154 13 8.44% 644

3 Robbery 57 2 3.51% B2 Conditional Caution 255

4 Theft Offences 2310 606 26.23% Community Resolution 1076

5 Criminal Damage & Arson Offences 872 368 42.20% E1 Penalty Notice For Disorder 190

6 Drug Offences 1201 729 60.70% F1 Street Warning - Cannabis Possession 358

7 Possession of Weapons Offences 156 28 17.95% Youth Caution 109

8 Public Order Offences 816 222 27.21% Youth Conditional Caution 67

9 Misc Crimes Against Society 218 30 13.76% Youth Restorative Disposal (YRD) 11

Total 8354 2710 32.44% 2710Total

Adult Restorative Disposal (ARD)

B1 Simple Caution

1st April to 31st July 2014All FAT

OutcomesOOCD

OOCD as % of All FAT Outcomes

OOCD

1 Violence Against the Person 2357 907 38.48% 1

2 Sexual Offences 104 8 7.69% 680

3 Robbery 35 0 0.00% B2 Conditional Caution 255

4 Theft Offences 2992 883 29.51% Community Resolution 1393

5 Criminal Damage & Arson Offences 848 419 49.41% E1 Penalty Notice For Disorder 312

6 Drug Offences 1382 917 66.35% F1 Street Warning - Cannabis Possession 475

7 Possession of Weapons Offences 124 35 28.23% Youth Caution 163

8 Public Order Offences 655 194 29.62% Youth Conditional Caution 46

9 Misc Crimes Against Society 203 27 13.30% Youth Restorative Disposal (YRD) 65

Total 8700 3390 38.97% 3390Total

Adult Restorative Disposal (ARD)

B1 Simple Caution

Out of Court Disposals (Rural)1st April to 31st July 2015 by District

RURAL B'STOKEEAST

HANTSHART

ISLE OF WIGHT

NEW FOREST

TEST VALLEY

WINCH'RTOTAL RURAL

1 Violence Against the Person 8 22 1 16 46 7 11 111

2 Sexual Offences 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1

3 Robbery 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 Theft Offences 4 11 0 6 14 5 6 46

5 Criminal Damage & Arson Offences 3 12 1 3 13 0 2 34

6 Drug Offences 14 19 5 22 20 3 12 95

7 Possession of Weapons Offences 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1

8 Public Order Offences 0 5 3 3 13 1 1 26

9 Misc Crimes Against Society 0 1 0 1 2 1 0 5

Total 29 71 10 51 108 17 33 319

• Violence against the person is the crime type experiencing the highest volume of out of court disposals with 111, (35%), followed by drug offences (95, 30%)

• Over one third of the OOCD in rural beats are in the New Forest. They have had 108 against 236 FAT outcomes (46%). 53 (49%) of their 108 OOCD are community resolutions.

• Hart have seen the lowest volume level, with 10 (32%) of their 31 FAT outcomes dealt with through out of court disposals

Out of Court Disposals (Non-Rural)1st April to 31st July 2015 by District

NON-RURAL B'stokeEast

HantsE'leigh Fareham Gosport Hart Havant

Isle of Wight

New Forest

P'mouth Rushm'r SotonTest

ValleyWinch'r

Total Non

Rural1 Violence Against the Person

51 14 45 33 45 13 49 37 33 154 43 142 27 26 712

2 Sexual Offences 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 4 0 0 13

3 Robbery 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2

4 Theft Offences 44 14 37 32 26 6 48 42 28 109 35 100 36 49 606

5 Criminal Damage & Arson Offences

34 8 19 14 18 11 31 13 15 81 28 66 14 16 368

6 Drug Offences 68 10 36 25 38 18 52 55 34 125 43 131 36 58 729

7 Possession of Weapons Offences

4 2 2 2 0 0 1 0 1 5 3 6 0 2 28

8 Public Order Offences

19 4 20 12 12 5 13 14 14 30 17 34 17 11 222

9 Misc Crimes Against Society

3 1 0 2 2 0 2 0 3 5 7 5 0 0 30

Total 227 54 159 120 141 53 197 161 129 510 179 488 130 162 2710

Crimes, FAT Outcomes and Out of Court Disposals1st April to 31st July Comparisons

YTD 31 July 2014

YTD 31 July 2015

% Difference

4065 5456 34.2%

861 760 -11.7%

21.2% 13.9% -7.3 % points

410 319 -22.2%

47.6% 42.0% -5.6 % points

YTD 31 July 2014

YTD 31 July 2015

% Difference

29618 40996 38.4%

8700 8353 -4.0%

29.4% 20.4% -9.0 % points

3390 2710 -20.1%

39.0% 32.4% -6.6 % points

Total FAT Outcomes

FAT Outcome Rate %

Total OOCD

OOCD as % of FAT Outcomes

Non-Rural Beats

Total Crimes

Total OOCD

OOCD as % of FAT Outcomes

Total FAT Outcomes

FAT Outcome Rate %

Rural Beats

Total Crimes

• Looking at this YTD against last, rural beats have seen a smaller increase in crime levels compared to non-rural beats but a greater reduction in FAT outcomes and consequently a lower FAT outcome rate

• The percentage of FAT outcomes that are resolved through out of court disposals is higher for rural beats than non-rural, although both have seen reductions this YTD

Rural Class Flag (Non-Rural Beat)1st September 2014 to 31st July 2015

• There have been 799 crimes defined as crimes of a rural nature under the Force Class Flag since September 2014. Of these 149 occurred in non-rural beats

• Over a third of the crimes took place in the New Forest (54 crimes), with Test Valley seeing 26 crimes, Hart 18 and Basingstoke 17

• 25% (37 crimes) of the rural crimes in non-rural beats were burglary in a building other than a dwelling

B'STOKEEAST

HANTSEASTLEIGH FAREHAM HART HAVANT

ISLE OF WIGHT

NEW FOREST

RUSHM'RTEST

VALLEYWINCH'R TOTAL

Violence with Injury 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 2 0 10

Violence without Injury 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 1 16

Rape and Other Sexual Offences 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2

Burglary in a dwelling 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3

Burglary in a building other than a dwelling 3 0 1 1 2 0 1 11 0 13 5 37

Vehicle Offences 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 6 1 2 1 14

All Other Theft Offences 3 1 1 0 5 3 1 5 0 4 4 27

Criminal Damage 1 1 1 2 3 1 2 6 0 3 2 22

Arson 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 5

Trafficking / Possession of Drugs 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2

Possession of Weapons Offences 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2

Public Order Offences 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 1 1 9

Total 17 4 4 3 18 4 4 54 1 26 14 149

Total crime-50050

14 / Oct 14 / Nov 14 / Dec 15 / Jan 15 / Feb 15 / Mar 15 / Apr

Month/Year

To

tal

C

rim

e Count crime

Ave crime

UCL crime

LCL crime

Rural Class Flag (Rural Beats)1st September 2014 to 31st July 2015

B'STOKE EAST HANTS HARTISLE OF WIGHT

NEW FOREST TEST VALLEY WINCH'R TOTAL

Violence with Injury 2 3 0 0 11 0 3 19

Violence without Injury 2 4 2 0 9 0 1 18

Other Sexual Offences 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 4

Burglary in a dwelling 2 4 2 0 7 2 4 21

Burglary in a building other than a dwelling 42 44 30 1 65 24 29 235

Vehicle Offences 15 5 5 0 39 5 7 76

Bicycle Theft 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2

All Other Theft Offences 23 20 14 5 27 21 29 139

Criminal Damage 28 15 8 2 30 8 13 104

Arson 1 0 0 0 5 0 1 7

Trafficking / Possession of Drugs 3 3 0 0 3 0 0 9

Possession of Weapons Offences 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1

Public Order Offences 2 0 3 0 5 0 0 10

Miscellaneous Crimes Against Society 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 5

Total 121 99 65 8 208 61 88 650

Total crime0

200

14 / Sep 14 / Oct 14 / Nov 14 / Dec 15 / Jan 15 / Feb 15 / Mar 15 / Apr

Month/Year

To

tal

C

rim

e Count crime

Ave crime

UCL crime

LCL crime

• The Force Class Flag has seen increased usage of late. The period 1st September 2014 to 30th April 2015 saw 451 crimes; an additional three months to the end of July has seen the figure rise to 650. Rural crime in non rural beats has risen from 88 to 149 over the same time period

ASB (Rural and Non-Rural)1st August 2012 to 31st July 2015

Total ASB (Rural)

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2012

/ A

ug20

12 /

Sep

2012

/ O

ct20

12 /

Nov

2012

/ D

ec20

13 /

Jan

2013

/ F

eb20

13 /

Mar

2013

/ A

pr20

13 /

May

2013

/ Ju

n20

13 /

Jul

2013

/ A

ug20

13 /

Sep

2013

/ O

ct20

13 /

Nov

2013

/ D

ec20

14 /

Jan

2014

/ F

eb20

14 /

Mar

2014

/ A

pr20

14 /

May

2014

/ Ju

n20

14 /

Jul

2014

/ A

ug20

14 /

Sep

2014

/ O

ct20

14 /

Nov

2014

/ D

ec20

15 /

Jan

2015

/ F

eb20

15 /

Mar

2015

/ A

pr20

15 /

May

2015

/ Ju

n20

15 /

Jul

To

tal

AS

B

Count ASB Ave ASB UCL ASB LCL ASB

Total ASB (Non-Rural)

2500

3500

4500

5500

6500

7500

2012

/ A

ug20

12 /

Sep

2012

/ O

ct20

12 /

Nov

2012

/ D

ec20

13 /

Jan

2013

/ F

eb20

13 /

Mar

2013

/ A

pr20

13 /

May

2013

/ Ju

n20

13 /

Jul

2013

/ A

ug20

13 /

Sep

2013

/ O

ct20

13 /

Nov

2013

/ D

ec20

14 /

Jan

2014

/ F

eb20

14 /

Mar

2014

/ A

pr20

14 /

May

2014

/ Ju

n20

14 /

Jul

2014

/ A

ug20

14 /

Sep

2014

/ O

ct20

14 /

Nov

2014

/ D

ec20

15 /

Jan

2015

/ F

eb20

15 /

Mar

2015

/ A

pr20

15 /

May

2015

/ Ju

n20

15 /

Jul

To

tal

AS

B

Count ASB Ave ASB UCL ASB LCL ASB

• Comparing April to July 2015 to the same period last year, ASB in rural beats has fallen by 23.1%, against a reduction of 14.8% for non-rural

• A small amount of public order was being recorded as ASB but this does not account for the unseasonal drop in ASB at this time of year

Victim Satisfaction1st August 2014 to 31st July 2015

Rural Non-RuralDifference(% points)

Violent Crime 81.5% 77.3% 4.2%

Vehicle Crime 78.3% 78.9% -0.6%

Dwelling Burglary 91.3% 89.3% 2.0%

Overall Satisfaction 82.5% 80.3% 2.2%

Benchmark for overall satisfaction= 86%

Comparison of Rural and Non-rural Victim Satisfaction (Completely, Very, Fairly Satisfied (CVF)) Overall for Whole Experience

Please note the rural/non-rural split is based on the ‘new’ rural beat structure

Victim Satisfaction1st August 2014 to 31st July 2015

Rural Non-RuralDifference(% points)

Violent Crime 74.6% 72.0% 2.6%

Vehicle Crime 69.0% 62.9% 6.1%

Dwelling Burglary 81.9% 82.2% -0.3%

Overall Satisfaction 73.9% 71.0% 2.9%

Comparison of Rural and Non-rural Victim Satisfaction (Completely, Very, Fairly Satisfied (CVF)) Overall for Being Kept Informed

Please note the rural/non-rural split is based on the ‘new’ rural beat structure