runoff contest - final
DESCRIPTION
Runoff Contest - FinalTRANSCRIPT
2nd62 63 64 65 66 67 68 72 73 7426 27 28 29 31 33 35 36 37 3812 13 15 16 18 19 20 21 22 231 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 38 40 41 48 50 51 52 53 54 55
61 69 70 7144 45 46 47 49 56 57 58 59 602 14 17 24 25 30 32 34 42 43
7th
10th
11th
15th
16th
18th
20th
21st
24th
29th
31st
36th
37th
41st
43rd
45th
46th
52 53 54 57 58 59 60 63 64 6525 26 27 29 30 31 32 33 36 3713 14 15 17 18 19 21 22 23 241 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 12 38 39 40 42 45 46 48 49 50 51
7547 55 56 61 62 70 71 72 73 747 11 16 20 28 34 35 41 43 44
67 68 71 72 74 7534 35 36 38 39 41 42 43 46 4921 23 24 25 26 27 29 30 31 321 3 5 6 8 9 12 15 17 19 52 53 55 57 58 60 62 63 65 66
51 54 56 59 61 64 69 70 7322 28 33 37 40 44 45 47 48 502 4 7 10 11 13 14 16 18 20
1 11 14 20 44 47 70 72
46 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 5525 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 3413 15 16 17 18 19 21 22 23 242 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 45
66 68 69 70 74 7532 34 35 36 38 39 41 42 44 4619 20 21 23 24 26 27 28 29 311 2 3 5 6 8 9 10 12 15 48 52 53 55 58 60 61 62 63 65
54 56 57 59 64 67 71 72 7330 33 37 40 43 45 47 49 50 514 7 11 13 14 16 17 18 22 25
55 58 59 61 63 64 65 66 68 6922 24 25 27 28 31 32 33 34 3611 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 20 211 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 40 43 44 45 47 49 50 51 53 54
71 74 7542 46 48 52 56 57 60 62 67 7019 23 26 29 30 35 37 38 39 41
68 71 7439 43 49 53 56 58 59 62 63 653 4 13 17 18 19 24 27 31 32
55 57 60 61 64 66 67 69 70 7229 30 33 34 35 36 37 38 40 4114 15 16 20 21 22 23 25 26 281 2 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 42 44 45 46 47 48 50 51 52 54
60 61 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 7225 26 27 29 30 32 44 4614 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 242 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 47 48 49 51 52 53 54 55 57 58
62 70 711 5 11 15 28 31 45 50 56 59
57 70 71 72 73 7411 12 18 19 34 44 45 50 51 54
57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 6625 26 27 28 30 31 32 33 3513 14 15 16 17 20 21 22 23 241 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 43 46 47 48 49 52 53 55 56
11 59 63 70 72
63 64 65 66 68 69 71 72 74 7530 32 34 36 38 39 41 42 43 4615 16 19 21 22 24 25 26 27 292 3 4 5 8 9 10 12 13 14 47 48 49 50 53 55 56 57 58 59
61 62 67 70 7333 35 37 40 44 45 51 52 54 601 6 7 11 17 18 20 23 28 31
37 38 40 41 45 47 48 50 55 5824 26 28 29 30 31 33 34 35 361 2 4 5 7 10 11 16 19 20 59 60 61 66 67 68 70 71 72 73
46 49 51 52 53 54 56 57 63 6421 22 23 25 27 32 39 42 43 443 6 8 9 12 13 14 15 17 18 65 69 74 75
70 74 7530 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 4318 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 291 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 16 50 51 52 54 57 60 61 63 65 69
55 56 58 59 62 64 66 67 68 7132 33 42 44 45 46 47 48 49 532 3 11 12 13 14 17 27 28 31 72 73
48 50 52 55 57 58 61 63 64 6526 27 29 30 32 33 38 41 42 462 3 5 6 9 16 21 23 24 25 66 67 68 73 74 75
37 39 40 43 44 45 47 49 51 5317 18 19 20 22 28 31 34 35 361 4 7 8 10 11 12 13 14 15 54 56 59 60 62 69 70 71 72
53 54 55 57 58 59 62 63 64 6526 27 28 30 31 32 34 35 37 3813 14 15 16 19 20 21 22 23 251 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 12 39 41 42 43 44 46 47 48 51 52
49 50 56 60 61 67 70 71 73 747 11 17 18 24 29 33 36 40 45
73 74 7531 33 35 47 51 54 56 62 70 711 11 12 13 17 19 22 24 28 30
58 59 60 61 63 64 65 66 67 6832 34 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 4315 16 18 20 21 23 25 26 27 292 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 14 44 45 46 48 49 50 52 53 55 57
15 17 19 26 46 62 69 70 73
45 47 48 61 63 64 6624 25 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 3411 12 13 14 16 18 20 21 22 231 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
61 62 63 64 66 68 71 72 74 7531 32 35 36 37 38 39 41 42 4315 16 21 23 25 26 27 28 29 301 2 3 6 7 8 9 12 13 14 45 46 48 49 50 51 52 53 57 58
67 69 70 7333 34 40 44 47 54 55 56 59 654 5 10 11 17 18 19 20 22 24
M61 62 64 66 67 68 71 74 7535 36 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 4619 21 23 25 26 27 29 31 32 341 4 5 6 8 9 10 12 15 17 48 49 50 52 53 54 57 58 59 60
63 65 69 70 72 7324 28 30 33 37 45 47 51 55 562 3 7 11 13 14 16 18 20 22
Less than 51%
Mayoral margin
51.00% – 51.99%
52.00% – 52.99%
53.00% – 53.99%
54.00% – 54.99%
55.00% – 55.99%
56.00% – 56.99%
57.00% – 57.99%
58.00% – 58.99%
59% or higher
7 10 14 16 20 45 73
2 3 28 30 33 37 47 51 53 54 55 57 58 67
6 18 22 24 25 34 38 41 42 43 62 69 72
4 11 13 17 26 27 39 48 50 62 63 70 74
1 5 9 12 23 29 36 52 56 59 65
8 35 40 46 60 64 75
15 31 44 66
21 32 71
19 68
Incumbent w/ HIGHEST % Incumbent w/ LOWEST %
Non-Incumbent w/ HIGHEST % Non-Incumbent w/ LOWEST %
20 7 12 16 23 26
41 4 27 28 35
7 10 14 22 25
1 2 15 2043
45 11 13 24 34
46 3 30 31 36
21 6 8 21
10 22 32
31 17 18
9 3337
29 19
16 5
18
2 4 5 6 8 9 16 21 22 25
26 33 35 36
37 1 7 15 17 18 32
43 12 13 19 30
7 20 27 28
31 10 24 34
10 11 14
29 23 31
45 3
16 29
11
2 8 12 13 23 26 28 29 30 32
34
245 19 21 22 33 36
18 6 9 15 25 35
2 4 10 20 27
10 7 14 18
45 3 17
29 31
16
24
11
1
31
36
37
46
242 9 12 17 22 27 33 34 36
113 7 8 13 23 25 26
20
21
14 16 19
6 15 21
7 5 10
32 35
1 18
29 31
10
15
15
46 28 30
2 20
4
11
24
16
36
36
37 38
42 44 46 47
43 45
39
41
40
37 38 40 44 46
41 43
47
45
39
42
41 42 43 46
37 38 45
4436
407
39
4715
39 41 42
44 46
37
38 40 43
45
43 47
Alyx Pattison
Brian Hopkins
Michele Smith (i)
Caroline Vickrey
James Cappleman (i)
Amy Crawford
Natashia Holmes (i)
Gregory Mitchell
John Pope (i)
Susan Sadlowski-Garza
Patrick Thompson
John Kozlar
Rafael Yañez
Raymond Lopez
Toni Foulkes
Stephanie Coleman
Lona Lane (i)
Derrick Curtis
Willie Cochran (i)
Kevin Bailey
Howard Brookins (i)
Marvin McNeil
Vetress Boyce
Michael Scott Jr.
Deborah Graham (i)
Chris Taliaferro
Milly Santiago
Ray Suarez (i)
Omar Aquino
Gilbert Villegas
Emma Mitts (i)
Tara Stamps
Mary O’Connor (i)
Anthony Napolitano
John Arena (i)
John Garrido
58 60 61 62 64 65 6722 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 3112 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 211 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
Rahm Emanuel (i)
Jesus “Chuy” Garcia
48
49 48
49
48
49
48
49
75
66 67
69
72 73
73 75
73 74
67 68
66 68
69 72
67 68
68 69
68 69
71 73
75
69 75
69 72
71 72
71 73
75
75
74 75
74 75
50
51
52
53 50
51
52
53
50
51
52
5316
50
51
52
5341
54
55
56
54
55
56
54
55
5643
54
55
5618
58 59 60 61 62
66
63
57
65
64
57 58 61 64 66
60
6546
63
59
62
61 65 66
60
57
58
63
64
62
59
11
59 60 62
61 64 65
57 66
63
58
67
67
67
67
The Aldertrack Election Prognostication Contest
Runoff Edition
Seventy-five individual contestants completed the contest survey by 10pm, Friday, April 3rd
.
Each contestant was assigned a number 1 through 75 and their choices are presented below.
The winner(s) will be contacted by email soon after preliminary election results are announced.
Contestants will remain anonymous unless they choose otherwise.
A Professional Guide To
Chicago Politics Since 2007
aldertrack.com
74
66
68% of contestants expect Hopkins to win
72% of contestants expect Holmes to win
61% of contestants expect Pope to win
89% of contestants expect Thompson to win
61% of contestants expect Lopez to win
69% of contestants expect Foulkes to win
69% of contestants expect Curtis to win
83% of contestants expect Cochran to win
79% of contestants expect Brookins to win
93% of contestants expect Scott to win
67% of contestants expect Graham to win
55% of contestants expect Santiago to win
57% of contestants expect Aquino to win
52% of contestants expect Stamps to win
73% of contestants expect O’Connor to win
69% of contestants expect Smith to win
65
88% of contestants expect Arena to win
68% of contestants expect Cappleman to win
65% of contestants expect Emanuel to win
68 72
69 75
74
71
70
73
68 71
73
69
70
75
72
7420
69 70 71 75
72
73
68
74
69 70 75
68
70
15
71
72
74
09% expect this outcome
19% expect this outcome
17% expect this outcome
17% expect this outcome
15% expect this outcome
09% expect this outcome
05% expect this outcome
04% expect this outcome
03% expect this outcome