rpt-mmc-2015-07-peek
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rpt-MMC-2015-07-Peek.pdfTRANSCRIPT
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1 June 2015 Edition Restricted Copyright 2015 GordonTLong.com All Rights Reserved [email protected]
PENSION POVERTY AHEAD Pensions are Underfunded and No Longer Risk Free
Gordon T Long 7/14/2015
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2 June 2015 Edition Restricted Copyright 2015 GordonTLong.com All Rights Reserved [email protected]
PENSION POVERTY AHEAD Pensions are Underfunded and No Longer Risk Free
JULY MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY
MARKET MESSAGE ....................................................................................................................................................................... 3 I- DEFINING CHARTS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Defining Chart #2 - Finding the Longer Term Super Cycle Pivot b ............................................................................................. 9 Defining Chart #3 - The Big M and Super Cycle b .................................................................................................................... 11 Defining Chart #3 - The Big M and Super Cycle b .................................................................................................................... 11 Defining Chart #4 Intermediate Term Topping Process ............................................................................................................. 12 The Bottom Line .............................................................................................................................................................................. 14
II TARGETS .................................................................................................................................................................................17
III QUARTERLY SENTIMENT RISK AND FUNDAMENTALS ..................................................................................................18 SENTIMENT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 18 NEW-FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................................................. 21
IV STUDIES..................................................................................................................................................................................22 NEW-STUDY: HISTORIC CHINESE MARKET COLLAPSE .......................................................................................................23
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 23 NEW-STUDY: RISK-OFF ...............................................................................................................................................................25
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 25 NEW-STUDY: EARNINGS WORRIES ..........................................................................................................................................28 STUDY: BUYBACKS .....................................................................................................................................................................31
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 31
V - TRIGGER$ ZONES ...................................................................................................................................................................34
VI - DRIVER$ & BIA$ .....................................................................................................................................................................35
PENSION POVERTY AHEAD .................................................................................................................... 36
SIMPLY TOO FEW CONTRIBUTORS versus BENEFICIARIES ................................................................................................36 The Social Security Beneficiaries ..................................................................................................................................................... 36
Too many people dependent on too few workers ....................................................................................................................36 Current Public Policy Denial .............................................................................................................................................................. 37 The Social Security Deficit ................................................................................................................................................................. 37 Three Stools of Retirement has lost two of Its Legs! ...................................................................................................................... 38 PBGCs Safety Net Exposure ............................................................................................................................................................ 39
WHY ARE PROMISED PUBLIC PENSIONS & BENEFITS UNSUSTAINABLE? ......................................................................40 1- Demographics & 2- Low Yield ZIRP Economics ........................................................................................................................ 40 3-Investment Risk ............................................................................................................................................................................... 40 4-Politics ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 41 5-Disposable Income .......................................................................................................................................................................... 41
WHY IS THE SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM AT RISK? ..............................................................................................................42 1-PAYGO and Demographics ........................................................................................................................................................... 42 2- Existing Deficits .............................................................................................................................................................................. 43 3- Non-Retirees ................................................................................................................................................................................... 43 4- Demographics and 5-Financial Assumptions ............................................................................................................................. 44
PUBLIC WORRIES MEDIA BEGINS TO FOCUS .....................................................................................................................45 GET READY ITS COMING! ........................................................................................................................................................46
Greece, Puerto Rico & Chicago ........................................................................................................................................................ 46