rpt-mmc-2015-06-peek
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rpt-MMC-2015-06-PeekTRANSCRIPT
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1 June 2015 Edition Restricted Copyright 2015 GordonTLong.com All Rights Reserved [email protected]
WAR ON CASH Is the War on Cash Just an Extension of the War on Gold?
Gordon T Long 6/16/2015
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2 June 2015 Edition Restricted Copyright 2015 GordonTLong.com All Rights Reserved [email protected]
WAR ON CASH Is the War on Cash Just an Extension of the War on Gold?
JUNE MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY
MARKET MESSAGE ................................................................................................................................. 3
I- DEFINING CHARTS ....................................................................................................................................................................10 Defining Chart #2 - Finding the Longer Term Super Cycle Pivot b ........................................................................................... 10 Defining Chart #3 - The Big M and Super Cycle b .................................................................................................................... 12 Defining Chart #3 - The Big M and Super Cycle b .................................................................................................................... 12 Defining Chart #4 Intermediate Term Topping Process ............................................................................................................. 13 The Bottom Line .............................................................................................................................................................................. 15
II TARGETS .................................................................................................................................................................................18 III QUARTERLY SENTIMENT RISK AND FUNDAMENTALS ..................................................................................................19
SENTIMENT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 19 NEW-FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................................................. 22
IV STUDIES..................................................................................................................................................................................24 NEW-STUDY: CENTRAL BANK RISK .........................................................................................................................................24
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 24 NEW-STUDY: BUYBACKS............................................................................................................................................................29
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 29 V - TRIGGER$ ZONES ...................................................................................................................................................................33 VI - DRIVER$ & BIA$ .....................................................................................................................................................................35
WORRIED BANKERS ............................................................................................................................. 36
RESTRICTIONS ON CASH ....................................................................................................................... 36
Deposits, Transfers, Withdrawals and Usage ...........................................................................................................................36 BRITAIN ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 37 FRANCE .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 37 GERMANY ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 37 GREECE .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 37 US ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
MOTIVES - ECONOMIC & BANKING........................................................................................................... 38
Prevent Bank Runs in the Next Financial Crisis ............................................................................................................................. 38 Elimination of Underground & Barter Economies ........................................................................................................................... 39 Tracking of Tax & Criminal Activity Follow the Money ............................................................................................................. 39 Reverse Falling Velocity of Money Hoarding ............................................................................................................................ 40 Banking Profitability Fees from both Seller & Buyer ................................................................................................................... 40
DRIVERS ............................................................................................................................................. 40
The Trend is Your Friend .............................................................................................................................................................40 Cash Prevents Negative Interest Rates .....................................................................................................................................41 Negative Interest Rates to Follow QE.........................................................................................................................................42
CONSEQUENCES .................................................................................................................................. 43
Inability to Control Banks ............................................................................................................................................................43
WHAT TO EXPECT ................................................................................................................................ 43
Taxation A Carry Tax .............................................................................................................................................................43 Never Forget They Will Print the Money .................................................................................................................................44