rpt-mmc-2015-03-peek
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rpt-MMC-2015-03-Peek.pdfTRANSCRIPT
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1 February 2015 Edition Restricted Copyright 2015 GordonTLong.com All Rights Reserved [email protected]
IS NIRP COMING TO AMERICA? The Coming 'Negative Interest Rate Policy'
Gordon T Long 3/18/2015
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2 February 2015 Edition Restricted Copyright 2015 GordonTLong.com All Rights Reserved [email protected]
IS NIRP COMING TO AMERICA? The Coming 'Negative Interest Rate Policy
MARCH MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY
MARKET MESSAGE ................................................................................................................................. 3
I- DEFINING CHARTS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Defining Chart #2 - Finding the Longer Term Super Cycle Pivot b ............................................................................................. 9 Defining Chart #3 - The Big M and Super Cycle b .................................................................................................................... 11 Defining Chart #3 - The Big M and Super Cycle b .................................................................................................................... 11 Defining Chart #4 Intermediate Term Topping Process ............................................................................................................. 12
II- TARGETS ...................................................................................................................................................................................15 III QUARTERLY SENTIMENT RISK AND FUNDAMENTALS ..................................................................................................17
SENTIMENT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 17 RISK ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19 FUNDAMENTALS............................................................................................................................................................................... 19 Valuation Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................ 20
IV STUDIES..................................................................................................................................................................................20 STUDY: CONFIRMING DEGREE OF GLOBAL SLOWDOWN Worse Than Expected ........................................................21
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 21 STUDY: ALPHA RISK Real Risk ...............................................................................................................................................22
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................ 22 STUDY: POTENTIAL TO SPOOK THE MARKETS Excesses ................................................................................................23
RESEARCH OF NOTE ...................................................................................................................................................................... 23 STUDY: DOES ANYONE BELIEVE THESE FORECASTS? Another Year, another Hockey Stick (Which Never Happens) ........................................................................................................................................................................................27
RESEARCH OF NOTE ...................................................................................................................................................................... 27 V - TRIGGER$ ZONES ...................................................................................................................................................................32 VI - DRIVER$ & BIA$ .....................................................................................................................................................................33 VIII- GORD'S VIEWS & OPINIONS ...............................................................................................................................................34
SENTIMENT & CONFIDENCE - NERVOUSNESS ........................................................................................................................ 41 MARKET AT HISTORIC HIGHS ....................................................................................................................................................... 46
IS NIRP COMING TO AMERICA? ............................................................................................................... 54
FIRST ZIRP, THEN NIRP? .............................................................................................................................................................55 HOW COULD THIS BE POSSIBLE? ............................................................................................................................................56 NIRP - THE NEXT PHASE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS ...........................................................................................56 WHAT ARE THE RAMIFICATIONS? ............................................................................................................................................59
1- STOCK BUYBACKS ...................................................................................................................................................................... 59 2- FRACTURED BUSINESS MODELS ........................................................................................................................................... 59 3- BIG PROFITS FOR INTERNATIONAL BANKS ........................................................................................................................ 59
WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY ...........................................................................................................................................................61 FEDERAL RESERVES POSITION USED TO BE ......................................................................................................................... 61 GOLDMAN SACHS WEIGHTS IN .................................................................................................................................................... 61 PIMCO WEIGHTS IN ......................................................................................................................................................................... 63