routes to clean air 2016 - dr marion wichmann fiebig

Für Mensch & Umwelt

Air Quality in Germany:Trends, projectionsand key measures

Routes to Clean AirBristol, 11th-12th October 2016

Marion Wichmann-FiebigDirector Air Quality

Air Quality policy as seen by the public:

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• 1/3rd of the EU populations sees Air Quality among the five most important

environmental problems

• 87 % regards respiratory deseases as a major concern

• 78 % are concerned about the state of ecosystems

• 25 % think that air quality has improved

• less than 50 % feel well informed on air quality

Air Quality in Germany

• AIR QUALITY TRENDS

• EXCEEDANCE SITUATION

• PAST AND FUTURE MEASURES

• SCENARIOS …..

……POLLUTANT-WISE

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Air quality 2015:PM10 annual mean PM10 daily mean

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Long term trend: annual mean PM10 in µg/m³

(averaged over all monitoring sites)

17.10.2016 / Hier steht der Veranstaltungstitel in 12 Punkt 5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund verkehrsnah

Rural background urban background traffic

Most effective regional measure concerning PM10:

Low emission zones

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Senatsverwaltung Berlin

Percentage of EURO 3 (red), EURO 4 (yellow), EURO 5 (green) vehicles in Berlin:fast phase in of cleaner diesel cars

Long term trend: PM10 Emissions in 10³ tons


households

industry

traffic

• Substantial reducion of traffic emissions• households increasing: wood combustion / convenience stoves

German Ordinance on small furnaces setstighter emission standards than EU type approval

Excurs: Levels of responsibilty in Germany

• FEDERAL LAW

• labeling ordinance for verhicles

• ordinance on emisisons from small stoves

• attainment of nation emission ceilings (NEC Directive)

• ATTAINMENT OF AIR QUALITY STANDARDS

• under the responsibility of German Länder/States

• often delegated to local authorities (cities, communities)

• introduction of LEZ also local responsibility


Secondary PM:

no reduction of most important precursors, e.g. ammonia


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Mineraldünger

Tierhaltung

Tierhaltung

Gridded total emissions:priority areas in Lower Saxony (agriculture) and large agglomerations (traffic and wood combustion)

Policy scenarios (2005 – 2030)

with a view to fulfilling emission recuction committments (NERC D)

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APS APS+ EWS EWS+ NERC-Wert

SO2 NOX PM2.5 NMVOC NH3

APS = current legislationEWS = decarbonisation scenario

• attainment without any additional measures for SO2, NOx and PM• NMVOC emissions uncertain; ammonia reduction requies measures in agriculture

NMVOC emission trends in 10³ tons


traffic

industry

most important measure would be a revision of the EU Decopaint Directive

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Exceedance areas in 2014: Ozone 8h-average Ozone AOT 40

Ozone trends: trend of frequency distribution

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• between 40 and 100 ppb concentration are increasing• In paricular urban background values keep rising• peak values are decreasing

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Exceedance areas in 2014: NO2 Annual average mapNO2 annual average with hot spots

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer/vorstädtischer Hintergrund verkehrsnah

Long term trend: annual mean NO2 in µg/m³

(averaged over all monitoring sites)

• currently 60 % of all traffic related monitoring sitesare exceeding the air quality standard

• main source: diesel cars


NOx emission trends in 10³ tons

traffic

energy

• emissions from traffic calculated according to real driving modes• „Handbuch Emissionsfaktoren“ differentiates between

about 100 different driving modes• national total not representative for urban traffic emissions

• At the most pollutate sites the air quality standard will not be attained before 2030

without any additional measures

• A faster phase in of EURO 6 including RDE will reduce concentrations,

but will still not ensure respecting the AAQS

• Futher measures are needed:

• retrofit heavy duty vehicles

• Incentives for electromobility

• moblity concepts aiming

to reduce the traffic volume

• renewable of the bus fleet

• speed limits

- Impact on NO2-concentrations

depends on local vehicle mix

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Mitigation scenarios concerning NOx

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Anteil an NOx-Emissionen [Landshuter Allee, München, CF1=2,1, CF2=1,5, Euro6 nach oben korrigiert]

Pkw Diesel Euro 6c "RDE Stufe 2"

Pkw Diesel Euro 6c "RDE Stufe 1"

Pkw Diesel Euro 6

Pkw Diesel Euro 5 und älter

Pkw Elektrische Fahrleistung

Pkw CNG/LPG

Pkw Benzin

Leichte Nutzfahrzeuge

Motorräder

Busse

Lkw

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Impact scenario for NO2 consideringEuro 6 (RDE) and further mitigation options

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30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

NO

2/

µg

m-3

München Landshuter Allee

Referenz

M1-S1

ohne CF

M2-S5

M3-S6

M7-S11

M4-S7

M5-S8

M6-S9

LEZwithout conformity factorLEZ for heavy duty traffic

exclude all Diesel from urban traffic

Conclusions

• PM10

• AAQS on are met (almost) everywhere

• gollowing WHO Guidelines EU AAQS should be revised

• Ozone

• widespread exceedance

• local/national measures available?

• NO2

• no attainment at many sites without additional measures

• UBA recommendation: ban Diesel cars from urban traffic

• Impact of NERC-Directive

• Reduction commitments are insufficient to improve local air quality substantially

A REVISION OF AQ DIRECTIVE 2008/50/EU IS INDISPENSABLE

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Many thanks for your attention!

Marion Wichmann-Fiebig

[email protected]

www.umweltbundesamt.de

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Exceedance areas in 2014: PM 10 daily mean PM2.5 annual mean

routes to clean air 2016 - dr marion wichmann fiebig

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