ross stein, usgs geophysicist and gem scientific …...data preparation tools for hazard, building...
TRANSCRIPT
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Ross Stein, USGS Geophysicistand GEM Scientific Board Chair
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Population (Landscan 2004)
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Date of great quake
Earthquakes from Bilham (Science, 2006)Population from Landscan (Oak Ridge Nat. Lab.,
2004)
A millennium of great earthquakes
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2011 LandscanPopulation
density
1900-2009 ISC-GEMEarthquake Catalog
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2011 LandscanPopulation
density
1900-2009 ISC-GEMEarthquake Catalog
Bogota
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Bogotà, ColumbiaBogotà, Columbia
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Founding meeting, Zürich Development Centre, 2008Founding meeting, Zürich Development Centre, 2008
5 Meetings (~120 people): Zurich, 2008; Munich, 2009; Washington, 2010; Beijing, 2011; Taipei & Pavia, 2012
25 Workshops (~30 people): Pavia, London, Nairobi, Windhoek, Algiers, Santiago, Madrid, Canberra, Menlo
Park, Manila, Cape Town, Brisbane, Ft. Collins, Lisbon, Quito, Caracas, Bangkok, Trinidad, Tobago, Rabat,
Singapore, Kathmandu
GEM’s GLOBAL COMMUNITY
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GEM PRINCIPLES
HumanitarianRaise risk awareness; promote preparedness,
building codes, and financial risk transfer
ScientificOnly through open exchange and global model testing can seismic risk assessment be rapidly
improved
CredibleClear and accessible risk information, in which we tell
users what we know and what we don’t know
Independent
A worldwide, non-governmental, non-commercialcommunity of scientists, model builders and users
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GEM ELEMENTS
Free to the public and governments
Sponsorship for commercial use
GEM staff of 16 peopleAnnual budget of $5M
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GEM PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP
Associate
Participants
Chile
California Seismic
Safety Commission
Japan
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View from Willis on the value of GEM
• Make quake insurance affordable by greater penetration
• More competition in risk taking & more financial solutions
• Bring models and thus insurance to emerging markets
• Foster public-private partnerships and insurance pools
• Make mitigation measurable and hence applicable
• Foster influx of capital, allow trading and cat bonds
• Increase market reputation, educate regulators
Rowan Douglas, Chairman, Willis Research Network
OpenQuake ‘Models create and consume capital’
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Matthew Jones, Head of Catastrophe Modeling, Zurich Insurance Group
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� Historical earthquakes
� Instrumental quakes
� Geodetic strain
� Active faults
� Ground motion prediction equations
� Exposure
Population
Buildings
� Vulnerability
Damage data
Fragility functions
� Decision tools
� Loss amplifiers
� Risk transfer tools
� Retrofit cost-benefit tools
Hazard(faulting & shaking)
Exposure andVulnerability(deaths, damage,
dollars)
Social Impact(mitigation actions)
GEM GLOBAL DATASETS, a $12M investment
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Magnitude
Paola Albini (INGV Milan) and Roger Musson (British Geological Survey), Principal Investigators
GEM Large Historical Earthquake Catalog: 832 M≥7 quakes during AD 1000-1900
Earthquake potential from millennial, century, and decade record
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Indonesia: GEM Catalog has 12 times more quakes than NOAA
NOAA Catalog: 6 earthquakes GEM Catalog: 75 earthquakes
NOAA Catalog = National Geophysical Data Center/ World Data Service Significant Earthquake Database
Java
Sum
atra
Myanmar
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ISC-GEM Seismic Catalog: 20,000 earthquakes, 1900-2009
CatalogCompleteness:
M≥7.50 since 1900
M≥6.25 since 1918
M≥5.50 since 1965
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NewOld
ISC-GEM Catalog: New magnitudes, locations, and depths for all
quakes
Guatemala
Puerto Rico
Colombia
Guatemala
Puerto Rico
Colombia
Depth (km)
Dmitry Storchak (International Seismological Centre), Principal Investigator
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ISC-GEM Catalog: Large earthquakes since 1900
km
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(Colored byfault type)
Newlydiscovered
active faults
in Myanmar
Sieh et al(in preparation)
ISC-GEM Seismic Catalog
(orange quakes are shallow,
blue are deep)
T H A I L A N D
B A N G L A -D E S H M Y A N M A R
A N D A M A N S
H I M A L A Y A S
GEM FaultedEarth
KelvinBerryman
(GNS
Science)Principal
Investigator
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GuineaGuinea
Japan
Taiwan
Java
Tonga
Aleutians
NewGuinea
Philippines
Fault depth (km)
Sumatra
GEM Faulted Earth includes 40,000 km of subduction zones
SLAB 1.0of Hayes &
Wald (2010)
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Why geodetic strain rates for hazard assessment?
Quake rateQuake rateQuake rateQuake rateSSSStrain ratetrain ratetrain ratetrain rate
Wasatchfault
San A
ndreas system
Cas-cadi
a
If all accumulating strain were released seismically, strain rate (left panel)should be proportional to earthquake rate (right panel)
2000-2011 GPS velocities used by Kreemer et al
for the GEM Strain Rate Model
Gutenberg-Richter a-value from declustered
ANSS catalog (Mignan, ETH Zurich)
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GEM Global Strain Rate Model reveals earthquake potential and active faults
Warmer colorsindicate highstrain andthus highquakerates
Kreemer et al (in prep.)
4,000 velocitiesin 2004 model
20,000 inGEM
Canada
SouthAmerica
MexicoCaribbean
Alaska
U.S.
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ChCh
GEM Global Strain Rate Model reveals earthquake potential and active faults
Warmer colorsindicate highstrain andthus highquakerates
Kreemer et al (in prep.)
China
TaiwanIndia
Java
Japan
Sumatra
Iran
Philippines
Tibet
IndianOcean
New Guinea
East Africanrift
4,000 velocitiesin 2004 model
20,000 inGEM
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GEM Strain Rate Model and ISC-GEM Catalog across Eurasia
Strain rate (nanostrain/yr)
Strain rate and large 20th century earthquakes are correlated
M≥6 earthquakes
GEORGIA
IRAN
TUNISIATIBET
CRETE
KYRGYZSTAN
INDIA
ITALY
PAKISTAN
JORDAN
ALGERIA
SERBIA
TURKEY
Warning Strain exceeds seismicity in Himalayas, Tehran, Baku, North Anatolian fault, Greece
ISAREL
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Iran: GEM Strain Rate Model and ISC-GEM Seismic Catalog
Strain rate
(nanostrain/yr)
IRAN
Tehran
Dubai
Tabriz
Baku
CASPIAN
A Z E R B A I J A N
M≥6 earthquakes
1.5 million
2.1 million
12 million
1.5 million
Population
Kreemer(in prep.)
Shiraz
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Tehran, IranTehran, Iran
Tehran
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GEM SOFTWARE: OPENQUAKE
Engine Open source calculation of hazard and risk on cluster or cloud
Data Preparation Tools For hazard, building exposure and vulnerability
Capture Tools For remote sensing data and direct field observations
Composite Indices Socio-economic vulnerability assessments and tools
Decision Support Tools
Retrofitting, mitigation, insurance, preparation
My Profile | View | Calculate | Capture | Explore
Developed using many of the concepts and methods of
OpenSHA (Field et al., USGS & SCEC) and PAGER (Wald
et al, USGS)
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� 118 fault sources
� 1,000,000 ruptures
� Hazard curves for PGA (19 intensity levels)
� Ground Motion Pred. Eqn: Chiou & Youngs (2008)
� 14,000 calculation sites
� Run time: 2h 40 m
OpenQuake: Robust and efficient hazard calculations
Peak ground acceleration (%g)
ITALY
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Intuitive data visualization: Quakes and Strain
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• Software
• Web portal: visualization, data export/import, …
Intuitive data visualization: Urban and rural
S P A I N
Rural population
density
Urban population
density
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SEISMIC HAZARD DEBATE
Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, and Robert J. Geller
Mark W. Stirling
Seth Stein, Robert Geller, and Mian Liu
September/October 2012
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John AdamsCanada NatlHaz Model
John AdamsCanada NatlHaz Model
Mark StirlingNZ Natl Haz
Model
Oliver BoydCentral US Haz
Model
MarcoPaganiGEM
MarcoPaganiGEM
Seth Stein, PSHA critic
Alex Allmann
Munich Re
Laura PeruzzaEuropean(SHARE)
Model
Laura PeruzzaEuropean(SHARE)
Model
Bring warring parties together on a mountain top for 3 days to develop new strategies, and to agree on tests of seismic hazard
assessmentMark Leonard, Australia Natl Haz Model
POWELL GROUPS: Harnessing the communityPOWELL GROUPS: Harnessing the community
Ray DurrheimSo. Africa
Model
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Ned FieldCalif Haz
Model
Mark Petersen, USNatl Haz Model
DavidJacksonPSHA critic
GraemeWeatherill, GEM
Danijel SchorlemmerGEM Testing and
EvaluationFacility
Martin KäserMunich Re
Martin KäserMunich Re
Mark StirlingNZ Natl Haz Model
Mark StirlingNZ Natl Haz Model
Morgan PageCalif Haz
Model
Gavin Hayes
Subductionzones
POWELL GROUPS: Harnessing the communityPOWELL GROUPS: Harnessing the community
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Emerging Powell Projects
1. Test post-1996 ground motions against the 1996 US Natl Seismic Hazard Model
2. Build and test global earthquake rate model using smoothed seismicity and GEM strain rate
3. Abandon ‘maximum quake magnitude’assignments for a scientifically sound alternative
4. Build OpenQuake Modelers Toolkit tests for ‘declustering’ (removing aftershocks from) seismic catalogs
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”Often, all the model ingredients look fine, but their
combination makes no sense.
Calibration is key”
"From an insured loss perspective, I am much more worried about an earthquake in Sydney than in Tokyo"
Comments by Alex Allmann, Munich Re,to the Powell Group on November 15
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1900-2009 ISC-GEM Earthquake Catalog1900-2009 ISC-GEM Earthquake Catalog
Warm colorsare shallowquakes
Warm colorsare shallowquakes
QuitoQuito
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Quito, EcuadorQuito, Ecuador
New national hazard
map with GEM data & OpenQuake
Quito
Hazard
highlow
Pacific
Ocean
In progress:Building codesEarthquake insurance
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traditional bamboo house inthe Colombian Andes
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Building a testable global modelwill raise risk awareness,
advance the practice,and open new
markets