When  the  Global  Downturn  hits  the  Youth  Bulge:    Challenges  and  Opportuni2es  for  (Female)  Youth  Employment  

 Ron  Mendoza,  Marina  Kokmarecki  and  Sheila  Murthy  

April  27,  2010  New  School  University,  New  York  

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UNICEF  POLICY  AND  PRACTICE  

Key  Messages  •  A  youth  “bulge”  is  imminent  in  71  developing  countries  

–  most    of  the  “bulge”  is  in  countries  with  historically  high  gender  inequaliVes    

–  in  2010,  90%  of  world  youth  is  in  developing  countries  •   Current  global  crises  raise  key  challenges  of  inclusive  

recovery:    a)  how  to  ensure  investment  in  human  capital  is  protected?      b)  how  to  ensure  advancement  for  female  youth?  

•  OpportuniVes  for  female  youth  employment    a)  what  human  capital  investments  will  break  intergeneraVonal  poverty?    b)  what  key  competencies/capabiliVes  are  relevant  for  the  future?  

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PresentaVon  Outline    

•  Youth  bulge:  DefiniVon  and  trends  

•  Youth  and  the  crisis:  Top  20  Sample  

•  The  Life  cycle  approach:  Analyze  opportuniVes  and  risks  faced  by  female  youth    

•  Policies:  Immediate  and  Medium-­‐Term    

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Youth  bulge    

The  NaVonal  Lens  

–  Youth  as  a  percent  of  naVonal  populaVon  – Mostly  lower  middle  income  category    

The  InternaVonal  Lens  

–  Youth  as  a  percent  of  global  youth  populaVon  –   India  and  China  –  40  percent  of  global  youth  

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Cross  Plot  of  Youth  (%  NaVonal  PopulaVon)  in  2010  vs.  Percentage  Point  Difference  in  GDP  Growth  Between  2007/8  and  2009/10  

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Top  20  Countries  with  the  Largest  Share  of  Youth  in  Total  World  PopulaVon  in  2010  –  Gender  Inequality  and    ContracVon    

Top  20  Countries  with  the  Largest  Share  of  Youth  in  Total  World  PopulaVon  in  2010-­‐  Gender  Inequality  and  ContracVon  

Life  cycle  approach    

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• Labor  Policies  • Social  Assistance  (NREGA  ,  India)  • Protect  social  spending  • Health  (Mexico,  Seguro  Popular)  

• Healthcare/  immunisaVon  (Brazil's  Bolsa  Familia;  Mexico’s  Oportunidades)  • NutriVon    (Brazil's  Bolsa  Familia,  Philippines'  Pantawid  Pamilya  Program)  

• Social  PortecVon        (Ethiopia)    • EducaVon  (JPS  Indonesia,  Bangladesh  Female  Secondary  School  Program)    • HIV-­‐Aids  (S2S  Training  Program)  

• Social  ProtecVon      (Ethiopia’s  ProducVve  Safety  Net  Program)  • EducaVon      (Brazil's  Bolsa  Familia,  Mexico's  Oportunidades)  

6-­‐11  

Child  Labor  School  Dropout  

12-­‐17  

HIV  infecVon    

Child  Labor  School  Dropout  

18-­‐24  

Early  pregnancy  

Informality    

 Low  pay  

0-­‐5  

Lack  of  nutriVon  

Dies  before  age  5  

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Selected References

Conceição, Pedro and Ronald U. Mendoza. 2009. “Anatomy of the Global Food Crisis.” Third World Quarterly 30(6):1159-1182.

Conceição, Pedro, Namsuk Kim, Ronald U. Mendoza and Yanchun Zhang. 2009. “Human development in crisis: Insights from the literature, emerging accounts from the field, and the correlates of growth accelerations and decelerations.” UNICEF-UNDP Working paper. New York.

Doytch, Nadia, Bingjie Hu and Ronald U. Mendoza. 2009. “Social Spending, Fiscal Space and Governance: An Analysis of Patterns over the Business Cycle.” Working paper. New York.

ILO. 2010. “Global Employment Trends: January 2010.” Geneva: ILO.

Mendoza, Ronald U. 2009. “Aggregate shocks, poor households and children: Transmission channels and policy responses.” Global Social Policy 9(1):55-78.