rockin’ the rockies...pre 2014 –need more than the bakken, double down in the bakken, find a new...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Rockin’ the RockiesT R I S H A C U R T I S
P E T R O N E R D S , P R E S I D E N T A N D C O - F O U N D E R
T R I S H A @ P E T R O N E R D S . C O M
D U G D E N V E R
M AY 1 5 , 2 0 1 9
1PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645
![Page 2: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
What is a PetroNerd?
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 2
![Page 3: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
© PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 3
About PetroNerds and Our Services• Boutique energy analytics and advisory firm based in
Denver, CO
• Personalized, data-driven advisory services
• Help our clients understand how the oil market impacts
their business
• Provide data and actionable insights needed, not reports
and projections that are never read
• HedgeAware – Interactive, cloud-based solution for
quickly assessing the hedging strategies and past
performance of U.S. oil and gas producers on a single,
easy to use platform
![Page 4: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Forthcoming Report on Productivity
© PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 4
http://www.petronerds.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/OIES-PetroNerds-Completion-Design-and-Productivity-2017.pdf
“Completion Design Changes and the Impact of US Shale Well Productivity”
![Page 5: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Oil Market
5PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645
![Page 6: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Oil Prices
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 6
![Page 7: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Supply, Supply, Supply
7PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645
Source: EIA
Saudi 9.8 mbd (from 11.1 plus mbd) Russia 11.5 mbd (from 11.7 mbd) US 11.9 mbd
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Jan
-06
No
v-0
6
Sep
-07
Jul-
08
May
-09
Mar
-10
Jan
-11
No
v-1
1
Sep
-12
Jul-
13
May
-14
Mar
-15
Jan
-16
No
v-1
6
Sep
-17
Jul-
18
Tho
usa
nd
Bar
rels
Per
Day
U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil
![Page 8: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
IEA Q4 2018 Oil Supply and Demand
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 8
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
1/2/2015 1/2/2016 1/2/2017 1/2/2018
$ P
er B
arre
l
Europe Brent Spot Price FOB $/bbl Cushing OK WTI Spot Price FOB $/bbl
Source: EIA
![Page 9: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Shale Model Inspiring Broader Changes
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 9
• Short-term, low cost, growth oriented
• Knowledge, Determination, Brute Force
• Nimble Service Sector
• Efficiency Gains
• Rapidly changing and evolving to increased understanding of the rocks
US Independents
• Investing in US Shale
• Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips
• BP and other interested in moves by the majors in US shale – BP opening Denver office and purchased BHP’s shale assets.
• US shale now viewed as a positive, and necessary, diverse asset to any portfolio
Majors• Lessons learned from shale
• Shale’s short cycle, low cost, quick return nature is driving global projects to compete for cash – “break-even” has spread far beyond shale
• Operators are now comparing their global assets against US shale
• Operators now invest differently – Near term growth with less risk
Global Shifts
Source: PetroNerds
![Page 10: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
But Some Still Focused on Investment Shortfalls
10PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645
![Page 11: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Shale Market Dynamics
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 11
Generalist Investor has Left the Oil Sector -
Activists
Opportunity for Consolidation - What about PE and Small
Players?
Investor Pressure -Shareholder
Returns/Positive Free Cash Flow
BIG Shale Demand –Majors Pushing Permian
and Short Cycle
Bifurcation between Large Caps and Small/Mid Caps
Well Spacing/Inventory –
ROR vs. NPV
Depend on Size and Market Cap
PDC
EOG vs. PXD
It is about size – so roll up the small players
Share price pressure positive from M&A standpoint
![Page 12: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Energy’s Weighting in the S&P 500 is Now Just 5 Percent
12PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645
Information Technology
20%
Health Care16%
Financials14%
Consumer Discretionary
10%
Communications Services
10%
Industrials9%
Consumer Staples
7%
Energy5%
Utilities3%
Real Estate3%
Materials 3%
Source: Bloomberg, September 21, 2018
Source: The Balance, November 2018
![Page 13: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Considering Market Pressure When Analyzing the Rockies
Rockies
Lots of Small and Mid Cap PlayersStrong Production Base, but Pipeline
Constraints, Regulatory Risk, and Unproven
S&P 500 Shrinkage – Loss of Generalist Investor
Permian Focus – Attention Challenge For the Rockies
Small and Mid Cap Pressure
Market Pressure
Muted Oil Prices Investor Pressure – Returns
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 13
![Page 14: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Weight on the Rockies
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 14
S&P 500
CVXWTI FANG
EOGPXD
WLL
XOG
![Page 15: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Evolution of Investor PressurePre 2014 – Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken
2014 Oil Price Correction – Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of Water, High IPs, Give me Cash Flow
2015 to 2016 – PERMANIA, Prices are Sub $60 but Buy Anything and Everything, Dry Powder, No Production, at Any Cost!
- strict drilling and leasing requirements
2017 – Start Focusing on Cash Flow!
2018 – Investor pressure on returns continues to build, oil prices move up, but stock prices are muted, get free cash flow positive or at the very least free cash flow neutral
-want inventory and scale, but we might penalize if you do this
2019 – Oil went to $44 on Christmas eve! Show me that free cash flow, production growth, inventory, mergers, dividends, share buybacks, and all money returned shareholders above $50
-Favoring majors and short cycle
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 15
![Page 16: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Weighing the Rockies
Positives Negatives
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 16
![Page 17: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Last Quarter – Even EOG….
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 17
![Page 18: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
EOG – WTI and S&P
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 18
![Page 19: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
EOG CAPEX, Free Cash Flow, and Production
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 19
Source: HedgeAware, PetroNerds
![Page 20: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
EOG Completed Well Costs
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q3 2018 2018 YearEnd Target
2018 YearEnd
2019 YearEnd Target
$15.4
$9.8
$8.5 $7.7 $7.5 $7.4 $7.5 $7.2 $7.2
$6 $6.1 $5.7 $4.7 $4.5 $4.4 $4.3 $4.6 $4.3
$9.8 $10 $8.8
$7.2
$5.1 $4.8 $4.6 $4.6
$ M
illio
ns
Delware Basin Wolfcamp (normalized to 7,000 ft lateral) Eagle Ford (normalized to 5,300 ft lateral) Bakken (normalized to 8,400 ft lateral)
Source: PetroNerds, EOG Investor Presentations
![Page 21: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Chevron and Exxon – Permian Growth Forecasts – Favoring Short Cycle
21PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645
Source: Chevron Investor Day Presentation, March 5, 2019 Source: ExxonMobil Investor Day Presentation, March 6, 2019
Exxon and Chevron both favoring short-cycle, stable growth. Both expect to grow their Permian Basin production to nearly 1 million boed each by 2024.
![Page 22: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Occidental and Anadarko
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 22
![Page 23: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Anadarko Spending $1.3 Billion in the DJ in 2019
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 23
Source: Bank of America 2018 Global Energy Conference, November 15, 2018
![Page 24: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 24
Are well spacing issues really going to kill the boom?
High Proppant Volumes
High Fluid Volumes
And Tight Spacing
Recipe for Poor Well
Performance?
![Page 25: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Changes in Inventory –Changes in Spacing – EVOLVING
25PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645
Source: Laredo, May Q1 2019 Earnings Source: Parsley Energy, May 2019, Q1 2019 Earnings
![Page 26: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Chesapeake’s Tweaks on Spacing/Completions
26PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645
![Page 27: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
EOG vs. PXD on Well Spacing
27PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645
![Page 28: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Schlumberger Has Concerns, Again….the well-established market consensus that the Permian can continue to provide 1.5 million barrels per day of annual production growth for the foreseeable future is starting to be called into question. ….we believe the main challenge in the Permian going forward is more likely to be reservoir and well performance as the rate of infield drilling continues to accelerate.
At present, our industry has yet to understand how reservoir conditions and well productivity change as we continue to pump billions of gallons of water and billions of pounds of sand into the ground each year.
In the Permian, the percentage of child wells in the Midland Wolfcamp basin has just reached 50% and we are already starting to see a similar reduction in unit well productivity to that already seen in the Eagle Ford suggesting that the Permian growth potential could be lower than earlier expected.
Schlumberger Q3 2018 Earnings Call, Paal Kibsgaard
Chase Mulvehill
….you talked about U.S. shale production and the challenges around that that you are starting to see. These challenges – is this something that can be solved through technology or is this just reservoir challenges that we have to deal with?
Paal Kibsgaard
No. I think it can absolutely be solved through technology….it requires a bit more of a reservoir focus on how the wells are drilled, how the wells are fracked, and we need a little bit more data to make sure that we do the right things here. But the measurements are available, the analysis and interpretation of the measurements are available and the remedies that we need to do to the frac fluids are also available. It’s just a matter of adopting these technologies. We have them all ready to go.
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 28
![Page 29: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Measuring Performance on Proppant Volumes Pumped….?
29PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645
Source: Schlumberger Investor Presentation, September 2018
![Page 30: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Completion Design Modifications Continue
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 30
Source: PetroNerdsPre 2014 2018
![Page 31: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Production andProductivity
31PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645
![Page 32: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Shale Play Type Curves
32PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729313335373941434547
BA
RR
ELS
PER
DA
Y
MONTHS
Type Curve
2014 Type Curve 2015 Type Curve 2016 Type Curve
2017 Type Curve 2018 Type Curve 2019 Type Curve
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46
BA
RR
ELS
MONTHS
Cumulative Barrels
2014 Cum Barrels 2015 Cum Barrels 2016 Cum Barrels
2017 Cum Barrels 2018 Cum Barrels 2019 Cum Barrels
Oil Price Assumption
Cumulative Production at 12 Months = 134,000 barrels x $/Barrel
Cumulative Production at 24 Months = 170,000 x $/Barrel
$40 $5,353,745 $6,793,608 $50 $6,692,181 $8,492,009
$60 $8,030,617 $10,190,411
$65 $8,699,836 $11,039,612 $70 $9,369,054 $11,888,813 $75 $10,038,272 $12,738,014
Permian, DJ, Williston, Powder, and Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast Basins
![Page 33: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Is Productivity Improving When Normalized for Lateral Length? In Most Cases, Yes.
33PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645
Source: PetroNerds, DrillingInfo. Data points are quarterly averages.
Infrastructure constraints, pent up productivity
![Page 34: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
US Shale Oil Play Production by Basin
34PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
1/1
/20
00
1/1
/20
01
1/1
/20
02
1/1
/20
03
1/1
/20
04
1/1
/20
05
1/1
/20
06
1/1
/20
07
1/1
/20
08
1/1
/20
09
1/1
/20
10
1/1
/20
11
1/1
/20
12
1/1
/20
13
1/1
/20
14
1/1
/20
15
1/1
/20
16
1/1
/20
17
1/1
/20
18
1/1
/20
19
Bar
rels
Per
Day
Shale Play Production
Permian Denver Julesburg Powder River
Williston Anadarko Eagle Ford Reservoir
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,0001
/1/2
00
0
1/1
/20
01
1/1
/20
02
1/1
/20
03
1/1
/20
04
1/1
/20
05
1/1
/20
06
1/1
/20
07
1/1
/20
08
1/1
/20
09
1/1
/20
10
1/1
/20
11
1/1
/20
12
1/1
/20
13
1/1
/20
14
1/1
/20
15
1/1
/20
16
1/1
/20
17
1/1
/20
18
1/1
/20
19
Bar
rels
Per
Day
Shale Play Production
Permian Denver Julesburg Powder River
Williston Anadarko Eagle Ford Reservoir
Permian – 3.9 mbdWilliston – 1.4 mbdEagle Ford – 1.2 mbdDJ – 516,000 bdAnadarko – 380,000 bdPowder – 142,000 bd
Source: PetroNerds, DrillingInfo
![Page 35: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Williston – Continued Growth
35PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645
![Page 36: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Powder – Turner Focus, Future Niobrara
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 36
$270 to $300 Million CAPEX
40 Net Completions (double that of Bakken)
$505 to $525Million CAPEX
Source: Devon, Chesapeake, EOG, Q1 2019 Earnings
![Page 37: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
DJ Basin – “Well Positioned”
37PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645
Source: Extraction, Q1 2019 Earnings
1. Q1 call – understand regulatory environment2. Low, repeatable well cost
![Page 38: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Williston Basin Type Curve
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 38
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
BA
RR
ELS
PER
DA
Y
MONTHS
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
![Page 39: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Williston Basin Productivity
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 39
Source: PetroNerds, DrillingInfo
![Page 40: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
DJ Basin Type Curve
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 40
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
BA
RR
ELS
PER
DA
Y
MONTHS
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
![Page 41: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
DJ Basin Productivity
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 41
Source: PetroNerds, DrillingInfo
![Page 42: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Permian Basin Well Productivity
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 42
Source: PetroNerds, DrillingInfo
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
BA
RR
ELS
PER
DA
Y
MONTHS
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
![Page 43: Rockin’ the Rockies...Pre 2014 –Need More than the Bakken, Double Down in the Bakken, Find a New Bakken 2014 Oil Price Correction –Pump and Produce, Lots of Sand and Lots of](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081522/5fbc6a6b622194638552255d/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Permian Basin Productivity
PETRONERDS LLC | WWW.PETRONERDS.COM | 970-329-1645 43
Source: PetroNerds, DrillingInfo