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Roadmap for Communication
Technologies, Services and Business
Models 2010, 2015 and Beyond
Presentation of the GIGA Roadmap on 31st Aug, 2010
Pekka Ruuska
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
2 31/08/2010
Outline (of this presentation):
Introduction
Main Trends in Communication Technology, Markets and Business
Situation in 2010
Coffee --- Break
Roadmap to 2015
Beyond 2015 – the Vision
Business Opportunities
Summary and Conclusions
3 31/08/2010
Introduction
The five-year GIGA programme ends in 2010 and a new research program is actively planned
Roadmap work was initiated by Tekes and carried out by VTT together with GIGA research program’s thematic groups
Roadmap’s scope is in communication technologies, services and potential business models
From “2010 to 2015 …and beyond”: the focus is on the next five years
Evaluating the role of the Finnish small and medium sized companies and the Finnish ICT industry
4 31/08/2010
About Contents of Roadmap
Wireless communication technology in key role
In search of opportunities for new services, applications, research and business
Main interest in technologies which have potential to develop
GIGA’s themes were:
Wireless Access Systems
Transparent Networks
Network Support Systems and Services
Telecommunication Business
Security
Focus is on widely utilized systems and services while several prospective technologies are also presented
5 31/08/2010
Long term trends, changes of business
Wireless wideband connections enable new services
More personal, smarter, easy-to-use, everywhere and always
reachable entertainment along with business, banking, health
monitoring and other practical services
Converging physical and digital worlds with smart spaces into the
Ubiquitous World
Development in China, India and Russia strongly changes the
business view
6 31/08/2010
From the Internet’s world to an ubiquitous world
Ubiquitous vision: wirelessly co-operating, small embedded electronics in all devices and systems (beds, boats, bicycles, cars, homes, offices), providing information and services that foster convenience and efficiency… in 2030
Pace of ICT’s evolution is accelerating, still to realize the vision, many basic things must change
Now we live with mobile or nomadic internet and start bridging the internet with real life devices, augmenting reality with mobile phones
Smart spaces slowly emerge, M2M systems appear, ubiquitous world becomes real
Copyright© Ruuska 2010
8 31/08/2010
Current market and business trends
Towards providing end-to-end user experience, not only mobile terminals or network devices
Digitalization of all information - doing everything with smart pocket-size devices
Freeness, cheapness, openness and crowd sourcing
Collecting user’s information – and using it
Rise of Asia and China, development of India, Africa, South America
New opportunities in providing services for the elderly people, green and clean technologies
9 31/08/2010
Changing business environment
GIGA program produced business analysis and business scenarios: Ahokangas et al., von Hertzen et al, Hämmäinen et al.
Horizontal and vertical (end-to-end) business model scenarios for ICT
Network data based value-added business: a huge opportunity
Technology changes business: open source code, free data, SW as a service, cloud computing and iStore, Spotify, Ovi, Facebook, Twitter, Sportsdo, ..
Social media changes industry unpredictably, ICT and Web access becomes commodity everywhere, billions of customers become easily reachable
10 31/08/2010
Consumer’s new needs and desires
World became flat: markets are always open everywhere
Consumers immediately share their experience of products and services,
Virtual World is turning into a business World
New solutions are still needed… for easy control of digital content, secure and simple online shopping, ubiquitous learning, health and wellness, traveling and experiences, seamless offering of all services everywhere, understanding and patient user’s interfaces, protection of user’s identity, property and information, controlling of energy consumption
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Ruuska 2
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12 31/08/2010
The Service Enablers
Green ICT: controlling energy costs, smart grids, smart
devices
Cloud computing: saving and optimizing computing
resources, multi-homing
Wireless and fixed broadband: on-line services advance,
low-power transmission with all devices, M2M
communication
Application stores: global distribution and proper earning
logics
New approach to security: protecting identity and
information, not only access to systems
Copyright© Ruuska 2010
14 31/08/2010
User’s equipment in 2010
Smart phones challenge desktop
systems, still the display size and
batteries limit them
Pocket devices offer more: many radios,
navigation, GPS, NFC, cameras, wallet,
touchscreens, book readers, controllers
for all home systems
All devices are getting connected,
television sets and their remote
controllers, camcorders, game-consoles
Still the simple phones, with plain CS
calls and SMS sell well Nokia X5-01 (Copyright© Nokia 2010)
15 31/08/2010
Radio technology in 2010
4G operational use just starts, WiMAX and LTE struggle (IMT-Advanced)
Allocation of 4G radio-bands still open
Flash-OFDM and TD-SCDMA vanishing
WiFi in 97% of laptops, mobility, wide-band, millimeter-band and high-power amendments coming
Broadcasting switches to digital, IPTV proceeds, 1080p50 resolution standardized, MPEG4 replaces MPEG2, scalable video codecs appearing
In low-power systems ZigBee (802.15.4) and Bluetooth dominate, UWB (802.15.3a) in a minor role
16 31/08/2010
Networks, their support systems and security in 2010
Convergence of networks progressed slowly while new network types appeared and IP connectivity boosted
IPv6 uptake still slow, but IPv4 numbers finally run out
LTE’s all IP core system comes
Femtocells compete against Wi-Fi with seamlessness and security
Mesh architecture in trial use, some business potential exists
QoS mechanisms rarely utilized, some potential in radio systems
Simultaneously more users, more mobility, more video load
Operators stick to their basic business: network support systems and services are more and more outsourced. New legislation and customer’s requirements raise the QoS expectations. Network device vendors are taking more role in network design and operation
Security of WiMAX and 3GPP systems is comparable, LTE introduces new solutions, WiFi’s security was weak but an amendment to standard is done. In low power systems processing resources compromise security. Cloud computing and smart-phones introduce new challenges
18 31/08/2010
Services offered in 2010
All popular network services offered for both laptop users and to pocket devices, while mobile users get some specific services
One-to-many communication and social media is everywhere
In fixed systems IPTV, HD resolution, 3D, video games, teleconferencing proceed, legal use of P2P advances
In wireless systems services based on NFC, GPS, locality and presence attract users, DBV-H exists, LTE is coming and bringing VoIP, use of smart phones in authentication and payment
Increasing M2M communication brings new challenges and opportunities
Social media, even in research Copyright© Ruuska 2010
Nokia C6 (Copyright© Nokia 2010)