road riporter 13.4 winter solstice 2008

8/14/2019 Road RIPorter 13.4 Winter Solstice 2008

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Debunking the Paiute Trail Economic Analysis

PT visitation numbers are speculative, and probably inated The Fishlakes mechanical trail counter system has a signicant fudge factor, and the data generated from themmust go through a long process that is subject to high levels of sampling error and subjective interpretation. Since the PT is mostly on ordinary Forest roads, PT counters are triggered by people who are using those roadsfor purposes other than off-road vehicle recreation. However, those numbers are still counted as visitors to the PT. One informal survey, conducted by PT ATV trail rangers, found that 93% of PT users were using off-road vehi-cles. This number contradicts the standardized National Visitor Use Management survey conducted on the Fishlakein 2004. It found that only 11.3% of visitors to the Fishlake were there to ride off-road vehicles. This discrepancyis too large to be ignored. The Fishlake, however, does not factor its own ofcial numbers into any analysis of thePTs impact.

PT user spending estimates are vastly inated The report estimates that a third of the users of the PT system come from local areas, a third from in-state met-ropolitan areas, and a third from out of state. But this estimate comes primarily from surveys conducted during theATV Jamboree, which likely attracts a higher proportion of out-of-area riders than the PT attracts overall. The reports gure of $110 per visitor per day is also derived from Jamboree surveys (which do generally jibe

with state tourism gures). However, this gure should not be assigned to all PT visitors, as discussed above. Localriders bring little or no extra money to the economy, and should not be counted. The report uses an inated spending multiplier. They do not cite their estimate that each tourism dollar turnsover 4.5 times. A more typical multiplier for recreation dollars is 2, not 4.5.

ConclusionWithout extensive assistance from economic experts, it is difcult for anyone to prove any assertion about the PTseconomic impact. However, a critical look at the Fishlakes numbers shows that their economic claims are specu-lative and highly inated.


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Editors Note: This essay appeared in Forest Magazine in summer 2008. Were presenting it inhe Road RIPorter as a two-part series, with part one in this issue and part two

to follow in our upcoming 2009 Spring Equinox issue (14.1).

ince the article was rst written in the late 1990s, snowmobiles in Yellowstone National Park

have been subject to increasing restrictions. For example, only four-stroke motors are now al-lowed in the park. Unfortunately, recent decisions on snowmobile use have been guided by conicting court decisions and provide little certainty from year to year.


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To be continued. . . look for part two of this article in the pring 2009 issue of he Road RIPorter.


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on-prot OrganizationS POSTAGE

PAIDISSOULA MT, 59801

ERMIT NO. 569

road riporter 13.4 winter solstice 2008

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