road freight productivity – trends and prospects

19
Road freight productivity – trends and prospects Jack McAuley, BTRE BTRE Transport Colloquium 13 - 14 June 2007

Upload: oren-william

Post on 03-Jan-2016

26 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

DESCRIPTION

Road freight productivity – trends and prospects. Jack McAuley, BTRE BTRE Transport Colloquium 13 - 14 June 2007. Outline. Historical trends in articulated truck freight volumes and vehicle travel Projected increases in articulated truck freight volumes and vehicle travel - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

Jack McAuley, BTRE

BTRE Transport Colloquium13 - 14 June 2007

Page 2: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

Outline

• Historical trends in articulated truck freight volumes and vehicle travel

• Projected increases in articulated truck freight volumes and vehicle travel

• Potential impact on vehicle traffic of potential regulatory changes:– Performance Based Standards– Expansion of B-triple network

Page 3: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

Road freight has grown at 5.8 per cent per annum since 1971

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1801

97

1

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

Ne

t to

nn

e k

ilo

me

tre

s

Road freight

5.8 % pa

Source: BTRE Report 112

Page 4: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

Articulated trucks account for most of the growth

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1801

97

1

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

Ne

t to

nn

e k

ilo

me

tre

s

Road freight

5.8 % pa

Light commercial vehicles 6.3 % pa

Rigid trucks3.4 % pa

Articulated trucks

6.8 % pa

Source: BTRE Report 112

Page 5: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

Types of articulated truck

Images adapted from National Transport Commission website

Single articulated truck

Page 6: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

Types of articulated truck

Images adapted from National Transport Commission website

Single articulated truck

B-double

Page 7: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

Types of articulated truck

Images adapted from National Transport Commission website

Single articulated truck

B-double

Road train

Page 8: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

Types of articulated truck

Images adapted from National Transport Commission website

Single articulated truck

B-double

Road train

B-triple

Page 9: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

The share of freight carried by B-doubles is growing at 2.2 percentage points per annum

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

11

99

0

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

Sh

are

Road trains

B-doubles

Single articulated trucks

Source: ABS Survey of Motor Vehicle Use, 1992-2005

Page 10: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

The average load of each vehicle class has remained relatively constant…

Source: Vicroads CULWAY data for laden trucks on the Hume Highway

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

To

nn

es

Single articulated trucks

B-doubles

Page 11: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

Source: BTRE Report 112

and there have been no changes to legal mass limits in the last decade

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

To

nn

es

Single articulated truck mass limit

Single articulated trucks

B-doubles

B-double mass limit

Page 12: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

Source: BTRE Report 112, Vicroads CULWAY data

…so that substitution to B-doubles is driving the increase in load for articulated trucks as a class

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

To

nn

es Articulated trucksSingle articulated trucks

B-doubles

Page 13: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

• There is scope for further substitution to B-doubles• The increase is truck travel will be slower than the increase

in freight• Per unit of freight:

– Lower environmental costs– Lower safety costs– Lower road wear costs

Increase in average load is expected to continue

Page 14: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

Truck travel will grow slower than road freight

Source: BTRE (2005, 2006)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

3501

99

0

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

To

nn

e ki

lom

etre

s

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Veh

icle

kilo

met

resArtic tonne km

Artic vehicle km, BAU

Projections

Page 15: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

• Implementation of performance based standards (PBS)• Possible expansion of B-triple network

Future regulatory changes

Page 16: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

Performance Based Standards could reduce truck travel by a further 5 %

Source: BTRE (2005, 2006)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

3501

99

0

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

To

nn

e ki

lom

etre

s

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Veh

icle

kilo

met

resArtic tonne km

Artic vehicle km, BAU

Artic vehicle km, under PBS?

Projections

Page 17: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

Expansion of B-triple network to inter-capital routes could reduce truck travel by a further 4%

Source: BTRE (2005, 2006)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

3501

99

0

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

To

nn

e ki

lom

etre

s

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Veh

icle

kilo

met

resArtic tonne km

Artic vehicle km, BAU

Artic vehicle km with PBS expanded B-triple network

Projections

Page 18: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

Summary• The articulated truck freight task will increase by 69 per cent

by 2020• Articulated truck travel will increase by 29 per cent by 2020• With no further regulatory changes, articulated truck travel

per unit of freight will be 35 per cent lower in 2020• Performance Based Standards could reduce truck travel by

a further 5 %• B-triples on inter-capital routes could reduce truck travel by

a further 4 %

Page 19: Road freight productivity – trends and prospects

References

ABS, Survey of Motor Vehicle Use

BTRE 2006, Freight Measurement and Modelling, Report 112

BTRE 2005, Greenhouse gas emissions from Australian transport: Base Case Projections to 2020, Report for the Australian Greenhouse Office

NRTC 2001, Performance-Based Standards Policy Framework for Heavy Vehicle Regulation, Regulatory Impact Statement, May