rlg (oclc) symposium chicago 2010

Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com

All in a State of Publishing

Michael CairnsInformation Media Partners

RLG Symposium, Chicago - June 11, 2010


“For Libraries and Librarians, the new premium on skills they have long cultivated as curators,

preservers, and retrievers of collective knowledge puts them squarely on top of an

information geyser in the sciences that could reshape medicine.”

Jonathan Shaw – Gutenberg 2.0: Harvard’s Libraries Deal With Disruptive Change


Information Publishers are trailblazers

CompetentMaster Learner

EducationInformation Trade

20031990 1995

20102015 2001

Rapid InvestmentNew Dangers Caution


Introduction and Agenda

Summary of the business environment The future of the book (so far) Publishing in the digital age


Publishing: Like Any Other Industry

Change Dislocation Speed Technology


Characterizing the Marketplace today

Subdued Anxious Retrenchment Confusion Jealousy


Key Segment Business Drivers

Trade Big author block

buster Technology –

Products Technology –

Distribution Retail stability Media tie-ins

“Celebrity” Conflict over

‘attention’

Education Government spending –

NCLB Education Policy

Local & state Adoptions Taxes

Enrollments Economy

Continuing education Community colleges Long distance Vocational/Technical

Workflow tools Evaluative Administrative

Information Practicing

professionals Macro economics Library budgets Government

investment Workflow

applications Technology

innovation


Revenues Look Healthy

$39,936

$40,321

$41,040

$42,028

2007 2008 2009(E) 2010(E)

Source: BISG Trends Report 2009

($,Millions)


New Book Titles and Editions: 2003-2010(E)

764,448

288,355

215,138

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

SelfPubs Traditonal

Source: R.R. Bowker


Sales of Trade E-Books $ Millions

$11.2

$90.0

1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10

Source: IDPF


Sales of Digital Textbooks: Percent of US Market

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: Misouri Book Company


Many publishers have been publishing in e-Formats for

many years.


Pearson: Digital is 31% of revenues in 2009.

Wiley, Elsevier, Wolters Kluwer have similar statistics


The Future of the Book (so far)


Observations

Revolution or reinvention? E-Books highly segmented Trade adoption driven by hardware and price Education faster mover, academic less so No significant innovation Piracy – No consistent approach, no real data


Trade: “a giant mess”…“no massive change”

Top of the pyramid Senior executives are focused on ‘E’ Most publishers not addressing the transition Reliant on supply chain to drive e-Content Curation is little understood but will be important Workflows are being redefined


Academic: “future hasn’t been invented yet”

Print is still ‘format of record’ – dissertations, tenure Limited impact of e-Content migrations

Content rendering issues Old publishing model: long lead times, high pricing,

one dimensional content Bastardized content: graphs, tables, equations, etc.

Potential to exceed Trade in application of benefits of e-Content Indexing, bibliographies, source materials, etc.


Education: “much faster than anticipated”

E-Content migration significantly underway Successes with “born digital” content – not just

‘migrated’ print content Few publishers thinking about ‘e’ from scratch

E-Book hardware have failed (thus far) in education Market develops to a ‘database’ and ‘subscription’

model Content becomes ‘dynamic’

Platform for services and content


“Many of our genre titles couldn’t be published without library buy-in. Of 8,000-10,000 units only

2,000 go to retail.”

“I don’t understand how libraries are going to exist in a future market.”

“We don’t love any of the models that exist for libraries.”


Implications

Patron and library data vacuum Ambivalence and lack of awareness of library

market dynamics: “What’s remote access?” Relationship between loaning and buying Characteristics of library patrons Current patron behavior in an e-Content world Can patrons be leveraged by publishers more

effectively?


A library social world

Gathering readers together The ‘lonely act’ of reading transitioning to

community reading Around the book Building communities Networked reading Can librarians help this trend and/or participate

in it


Publishing in the Digital Age

Thoughts and predictions


Remember the Characterization?

Subdued Anxious Retrenchment Confusion Jealousy


Are things really that bad?

During 2009 Book Publishing a winner No ‘resurrection’ during 2009 Executives guarded about immediate future Short to medium term problems with

education and library funding No bail-out!


Change is Coming

Trade Re-evalution of

value chain Direct to

consumer models Publishers as

retailers, retailers as publishers

Information Software as a

service Application

providers Service

outsourcers Embedded

content

Education Expanded value

chain Solutions

providers Custom

production Content,

Assessment, Remediation, Management


eBooks and eContent holds center stage

2009 ‘Year of the E-Book’ Apple’s (Hardware) role in book/media

content will be defining Google Editions: “The Cloud” Content ‘rights’ challenged: Concept of

ownership E-Content rather than E-Books E-Content another format option

Information Media Partners – Michael Cairns – infomediapartners.com27

Forecasting Publishing In The Digital Age

Publishing and technology will become synonymous

Web delivery, xml based and ‘open’ social network orientation

Expansion of solutions based publishing Education publishers rapid adoption of

solutions based applications Slow publishers will loose to new entrants


“People want to be directed.”


THANK YOU.

The United States of Publishing

Michael [email protected]

Blog: personanondata.blogspot.com