Pavane Gorrepati Rivermont Collegiate Bettendorf, Iowa Concerns Regarding Water Conservation and Energy in Ethiopia and the Way Forward in a Climate Conscious World Introduction

After years of drought and mounting inflationary pressures on energy prices, Ethiopia was, in 2008, swallowed by a worldwide food crisis and pushed toward the brink of famine. In one of the world’s poorest countries, where about 44% of the population lives under the poverty line, more than 12 million people experience chronic food insecurity. Most of them live in rural areas. According to the International Food Policy Research Institute, Ethiopia is one of the three hardest hit countries by the food crisis in 2008. The onset of a new year has provided everything but relief for the East African nation which has continued to struggle with record breaking drought conditions and remains in an unending cycle of illness and famine. Regrettably, the country is familiar with these types of crises. Between 1984 and 1985, Ethiopia was struck by a historic famine that left over one million people to die of starvation in what became one of the world’s most tragic humanitarian disasters. It is currently feared that a repeat of the 1984 crisis looms in the foreseeable future as, according to recent UNICEF figures, close to 14 million Ethiopians are facing discernible challenges in finding enough food to feed themselves. All in all, rising food and energy prices, disease, and increasing levels of poverty are exacerbating the situation.

While it is unsure how Ethiopia will fare in the coming year, it is evident that in order for this deadly cycle to be halted, major changes must take place in how the country prepares for future famines. The problems in Ethiopia reveal a tangled web that interconnects global energy prices, the emerging climate crisis, and local water shortages. In the current age of a globalized economy, actions taken in one part of the world can have dramatic, far-reaching effects that cause aftershocks in the rest of the world. Therefore, it becomes necessary that the global community tackle the issue of food security with unity for any important effects to be realized. The world must understand the connections that lie between high food prices, the current ‘green’ revolution, and world energy needs, including, but not exclusive to, issues pertaining to oil, biodiesel and ethanol. Moreover, evidence shows that the current water shortages are the result of climate change, and this gives us a glimpse of the future, when water scarcity and the resulting food insecurity will be the norm. The country’s rain dependent farming methods are extremely susceptible to slight fluctuations in weather patterns, hindering the country’s ability to recover from the last drought before the next one hits. What needs to be implemented is an improvement in energy consumption, as well as a new approach on how we approach the climate crisis that will result in more favorable policies for countries like Ethiopia. As well, we must help these countries to overcome persistent drought conditions by reinforcing them with methods and manners to maintain water reserves.

Subsistence Farming in Ethiopia

Millions of Ethiopians still depend on ancient methods of subsistence agriculture. It is estimated that over 80% of the population lives in rural areas and is dependent on farming. Nearly all of the crops and/or livestock raised by individual farmers are used solely to raise the farmer’s family, which for the typical Ethiopian farmer averages about six children. This leaves little to sell on the open market or for trading. Most Ethiopians are very reverent, and thus religion plays an inextricable role in their lifestyles, most notably in their diets. Ethiopian Orthodox do not eat meat, eggs or diary products on Wednesdays and Fridays. There are also a number of religious “fasts” which Ethiopian orthodox observe; the longest of which is the Easter fast or “Kudade Tsom” which lasts about 55 days. As a whole, the Ethiopian diet relies on different types of berbere sauce with various meats. Sauces made with yellow peas, lentil,

cabbage, and green beans are all eaten with injera, a pancake like “bread” made of teff grain. Injera is a major food staple, and provides approximately two-thirds of the diet in Ethiopia. Pulses are the second most important element in the Ethiopian diet and are the main source of protein. They are typically served in a stew-like dish known as wot.

The sequence of education in Ethiopia, which has remained unchanged for nearly 50 years, begins with six years of elementary school, four years of lower secondary school, and two years of senior secondary. Most children start school at age five, however, fewer than 34% complete the lower secondary education level. Ethiopian students lack pens, books, paper, and most schools don't even have water or working toilets. Moreover, the poor education Ethiopian children receive places them at a distinct disadvantage as they typically score far below average in basic skills such as reading, writing, and math. Children in rural areas are less likely to go to school than children in urban areas, and women in particular are even less likely to receive an education in Ethiopia. The most recent government statistics show that 2.5 million primary school age children were enrolled, while only 655,385 were enrolled in junior and senior secondary schools. In terms of percentages, this represents 42% of the eligible age group enrolled in primary school and only 5.3% at the secondary level. Most rural families cannot afford to send their children to school because families are often so strained that the children must contribute to the household chores and income. Currently, the average income in Ethiopia is $108, but this is in stark contrast to the same figure in 1984, which was $190. Most rural households live on a daily per capita income of less than $0.50. This is especially devastating considering that the current rate of inflation in Ethiopia hovers around 17.2%, thereby annually reducing the purchasing power of Ethiopian subsistence farmers.

Ethiopia's agricultural activity accounts for about 45% of the country’s GDP and 80% of total employment. Yet, more than half of the country’s 12 million farmers have less than one hectare, which is not enough land to produce adequate food for the average household. On the land that is cultivated, about 146 crop types are grown in Ethiopia, including major staple crops such as cereals, pulses, oilseeds, and coffee. The trade of coffee is Ethiopia's largest export and generates 60% of its total export earnings. According to historical surveys, the coffee business employs about one out of every four people in the country. Oilseeds such as sesame seeds, niger seeds, safflower, and mustard seed, however, have become an increasingly important agricultural activity, especially with the recent decline in coffee prices.

Even before the present drought narrowed the horizon of many Ethiopian farmers, the country was already grappling with major barriers to improving farm agricultural productivity and income. The many historical shifts of the political climate, as well as the upheaval caused by civil wars, have ravaged the country and its people. Furthermore, Ethiopia is plagued by underdevelopment in technology. Firstly, an undeveloped transportation and communication network prevents the distribution of food from surplus areas to areas of need. In 1984, there were reports of surplus in the south while one million people died of hunger in the northeastern regions of the country. With poor roads and a lack of market communication, farmers are sorely challenged to sell food in places where it's needed. Only a quarter of food produced reaches the market. That locks poor farmers into subsistence agriculture and condemns them to poverty. Other specific issues include limited access for rural households to basic necessities and support services, and the inability for rural subsistence farmers to participate in decisions and politics that affect their livelihood on a national level.

Water Resources, Energy, and Agricultural Productivity

The incidence of poverty in Ethiopia is often more severe in rural areas than in urban areas because agricultural activity has become increasingly costly to maintain, and the energy and water resources needed to increase agricultural productivity and provide for a larger population are simply not there. In order to survive, most rural households are forced to resort to seasonal or permanent migration to urban areas in search of employment. The increased rate and severity of drought in Ethiopia have resulted in

major fluctuations in agricultural and economic growth. The poor simply do not have the ability to withstand the loss of food and income from crop failure due to lack of rain.

Periodic droughts are a part of Ethiopia’s history for hundreds of years, yet droughts are becoming more frequent and severe. A century ago, the country suffered a drought every 10-15 years. Today droughts occur with alarming regularity approximately every five years. In parts of southern Ethiopia, the present status has remained unchanged for the past three years with a prolonged drought extending through three rainy seasons. Grain yields average little more than one ton per hectare in all of Ethiopia. These yields are much lower in drought-stricken areas and during drought years. By contrast, U.S. farmers average nearly six tons of grain per hectare. These low yields result not only from unyielding drought, but also from severe land degradation that stems from intensive farming on steep and fragile lands with limited use of soil and water conservation measures and very little recycling of manure and organic nutrients to the soil. These practices have led to severe problems of erosion, which averages nearly ten times the rate of soil formation.

The International Water Management Institute (IWMI) demonstrated that many countries face severe water scarcity, either as a result of a lack of available fresh water, or due to a lack of investment in water infrastructure, such as dams and reservoirs. Ethiopia is, unfortunately, plagued by both. Because of inadequate planning, the heavy rains that fall annually go to waste due to the lack of conservation infrastructure. This decreases the availability of water that is needed to grow water intensive crops. According to a recent study carried out by scientists of the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, unless we change the way we use water and increase water productivity, we will not have enough water to feed the world’s growing population. This population is estimated to increase from six billion now to about 8.5 billion in 25 years. A further 2.5 billion people by 2035 will mean that we have to find more than additional 2000 km3 a year of fresh water. This is not any easy task given that current water usage for food production is 7500 km3 and supplies are scarce. Therefore, all relevant measurements indicate that the current situation will only become worse in the coming years.

Modern farming is also highly energy-intensive: A great deal of energy goes into producing fertilizer, running tractors, and moving farm products. However, with the price of oil consistently above $100 per barrel, energy costs have become a major factor driving up agricultural costs. More expensive fuel means the costs of transporting and distributing also increases. As a consequence, prices for many staple foods like teff, corn, rice and other basic foods have risen by up to 100%. This is truly devastating for poor countries like Ethiopia, where food accounts for more than half a family’s spending. Secondly, the rise in food prices has been driven by climate change and efforts to curb greenhouse gases by using crops as fuel sources. Land originally used to grow grains is now used to cultivate biofuel. The subsidized conversion of crops into fuel was intended to promote energy independence and limit global warming, but it has instead been a stumbling block that has driven up world food prices and done little to reduce greenhouse gases.

The food insecurity in Ethiopia is the worst it has been since 2003, when 13.2 million people required emergency assistance. In April, it was estimated that $68 million would be sufficient to cover the country's humanitarian requirements. But the failure of rainfall saw the need increase dramatically. Ethiopia recently appealed for $325 million in food and other humanitarian aid after drought and crop failure more than doubled the number of people needing emergency assistance to 4.6 million. Currently, the rate of severely malnourished children has reached approximately 11%. The only element that keeps these numbers relatively low is the internationally donated food rations; otherwise, many more countless families would go hungry each and every night.

Higher agricultural productivity, by stimulating the demand for unskilled labor, can lead to a long-term increase in rural wages, thereby benefiting subsistence farmers and laborers. Farmers who are

net food sellers will also benefit from increased agricultural productivity as they can now sell their excess for a profit. This will not, however, be the trend for small-scale farmers who have very little land and little surplus to sell. Instead, they will continue to strain under the pressure because they will have to buy food above and beyond what they produce just to raise their families. This will squeeze their incomes and lead to the aforementioned issues. In any case, poorer farmers are unlikely to receive the bulk of the benefits from increased agricultural production and are more likely to be negatively affected because they will be driven out by larger for-profit farmers.

Recommendations and Remedies

While several initiatives have been proposed in recent years, including reviving stalled irrigation projects to boost food production, a great deal has yet to be done to deal with food insecurity. And although rain-fed agriculture is unpredictable due to variable weather patterns, it must be realized that in the short term this is the method of choice. Nevertheless, bold and practical proposals must be implemented to deal with the perennial food shortfalls. Providing food relief to the starving is an obvious intervention now, but it does not answer the need for food security.

In order to increase productivity of small-scale farmers, significant investments have to be made. Results show that financial investments have significant, positive impacts on yields in low-rainfall areas, because it gives further confidence to farmers to take greater care of their crops which, in turn, results in greater yields and increased income. Moreover, promotion of adaptation strategies should be advocated. These strategies need to be location specific and mindful of differences in risk factors in Ethiopia.

To some, the clear solution to the food crisis lies in plant breeding that produces the ultimate high-yielding, low-water-consuming crops. It was, however, found that the use of hybridized seeds has insignificant risk-reducing effects in low-rainfall areas, suggesting that these interventions may not be appropriate adaptation strategies for these environments. So while this solution may prove to be effective in the long-term, it is doomed to fail unless attention is paid to where the water for all food crops is going to come from. Results show that soil and water conservation technologies have significant impacts on reducing production risk in Ethiopia and could be part of the country’s “green” strategy.

Better water storage has to be considered. Ethiopia, which is typical of many sub-Saharan African countries, has a water storage capacity of 38m3 per person, whereas westernized countries such as Australia have almost 5000m3 per person. New large-sized dams must be constructed to deal with this critical lack of storage in Ethiopia. Other simpler solutions include the construction of small reservoirs, the sustainable use of groundwater systems, and rainwater collection for smaller farming systems. Moreover, water conservation practices must be managed in urban areas so that adequate resources can be distributed to rural farming.

These actions need to be paralleled by development of infrastructure and facilities to get fresh food to markets. If farmers can't make money from their crops, they can't buy expensive inputs, and as a result, production will drop dramatically. Subsistence farmers must also adopt smarter farming practices, where they could see a reduction in water demand as well as a slowdown in environmental degradation. Making the transition to drought-resistant crops like tubers instead of water-reliant food crops like maize and beans would over time improve the trend to conserve water. However, in reality, it is difficult for subsistence farmers to make that shift since it will likely incur higher farming costs.

Furthermore, the burden of high-energy costs can be eased for farmers if we instead deploy cheap renewable methods of energy production, especially solar power. Solar electric systems convert sunlight directly into electricity, and they can power an electrical appliance directly or store energy in a battery better than diesel generators, wind turbines, or batteries alone. Solar cells possess the ability to work in

areas with no utility lines and are often cheaper and require less maintenance. Moreover, in that solar electricity can be produced very reliably in all types of weather. Even on partly cloudy days, solar cells can produce up to 80% of their potential energy. Once widely implemented, solar cells have the potential to dramatically lower the financial burden on subsistence farmers in Ethiopia.

In situations such as the one in Ethiopia, governments and international organizations often find themselves entrusted to find solutions. But in this case, it is imperative that reforms originate at a grassroots and local government level since national government influence is severely lacking in that region of the world. Governments, however, can take certain actions to improve the overall food insecurity climate. They should replenish and increase the surplus food inventories, and improve the management of food aid, in order to cope with weather-related disasters like those that have currently enveloped Ethiopia. Over the years, these precautionary inventories were allowed to shrink under diminished fears of food insecurity. This left the world food balance highly vulnerable to a system-wide shock affecting many countries at once, in much the same manner the financial markets recently endured a global crisis. Food-for-work programs, crop insurance, and other safety measures could also reduce the vulnerability of poor farmers. Lastly, the United Nations World Food Program should continue to put out an appeal for more funds. President Barack Obama pledged $3.5 billion to aid agricultural development and food security in Africa. This clear leadership position needs to be emulated by other countries.

Conclusion

Nevertheless, the realization must be made that cheap food may be a thing of the past. The underlying causes of these problems are several and include high population pressure, the lack of access to water infrastructure, increased energy consumption worldwide, biofuel production, climate change, regional droughts, and the skyrocketing prices of running a farm. Ethiopian farmers are almost entirely dependent on the weather, and the country is prone to drought three to four years out of every ten. Arid conditions may be a constant reality for countries like Ethiopia. But while Parliaments discuss scientific advancements such as crops that produce higher yield and require less nutrients, many continue to fail to consider the need for water storage, and instead look for long term solutions. It is more important, however, to deal with the problem in the short term by coming up with methods of water conservation and the gradual move toward advancements in crop science. Unfortunately, little to no efforts is being directed toward changing water conservation policies and increasing water storage capacity. Adaptation is key. It is not clear how much can be done, but progress must be made in the short term that focuses on existing technologies and maximizing water conservation. And energy must be more renewable. This is a fundamental solution to climate change, and it gives desperately needed flexibility to some of the poorest subsistence farmers across this globe.

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