risky business reports · 2018. 1. 19. · risky business reports . analyticapproach the bottom...
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The bottom line on climate change0
Karl Hausker
Risky Business Reportswww.riskybusiness.org
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Analytic Approach
The bottom line on climate change 1
• Applies the PATHWAYS model, a detailed stock accounting,
technology adoption, and cost model for the US energy system
developed by Energy & Environmental Economics (E3)
• Analyzes technology and cost scenarios.
• Not a macroeconomic model
• Uses 2015 Reference Case from EIA Annual Energy Outlook
• Meet demand for end-use services
• Capital stock turnover at end of normal lifetime
• Explores four pathways that each reduce CO2 emissions
80% by 2050 with different technology mixes
• National projections plus results for 9 US Census regions,
reflecting resource differences
• Beyond modeling:
• In-depth discussions of implementation issues
• Case studies on early steps to clean energy transition
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The bottom line on climate change2
Three Pillars: Strategies and Metrics
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Primary Energy Use in 2015 and 2050
The bottom line on climate change 3
2015 2050 2015 2050 2015 2050
Pri
mar
y En
erg
y U
se (
qu
ads)
Fossil Energy Non-Fossil Energy Hydrogen/SynGas
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Power Generation in 2050
The bottom line on climate change 4
Reference Mixed High High HighRenewables Nuclear CCS
Ele
ctri
city
Ge
ne
rati
on
(b
illio
n k
wh
)
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Power Generation Investment by Region
The bottom line on climate change 5
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Transportation Energy Use in 2050
The bottom line on climate change 6
Reference Mixed High High HighRenewables Nuclear CCS
Tran
spo
rt F
inal
En
erg
y (q
uad
s)
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The bottom line on climate change7
Average annual
change in
investments and
fuel expenditures
by decade. • Annual change
in investments
from 2020-2050
would average
about $320B
per year
• Roughly equal
to average
annual US IT
spending over
the past
decade.
Investing in Clean Energy
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The bottom line on climate change 8
As-S
pe
nt C
osts
an
d S
avin
gs
Bill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs (
20
15
$)
“Cash Drawer” PerspectiveA
s-S
pe
nt C
osts
an
d S
avin
gs
Bill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs (
20
15
$)
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The bottom line on climate change 9
An
nu
aliz
ed C
osts
and
Savin
gs
Bill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs (
20
15
$)
Capital cost annualized over lifetime of asset
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The bottom line on climate change10
• The pace of needed power plant construction would be
challenging, but doable.
2-4 X historical rates
• The power grid’s transmission and distribution system
would require significant expansion and upgrades.
Transmission line siting could be a major obstacle
• The shift to electric vehicles would require major
physical infrastructure build-out and changes.
Focus on Fast Chargers, Workplace, Home, or
Battery Swapping?
• Utility business models must change to integrate more
variable and distributed resources.
Smart grids and smart devices needed to match
supply & demand
Implementation Challenges