ripon forum february 2016

February 2016Volume 50, No. 1

ELISE STEFANIKON REVAMPING GOVERNMENT

“Every federal agency needsto be reformed.”

The Next Steps inEDUCATION REFORM

BRIDGING THE ECONOMIC SCHOOL DIVIDEby Richard D. Kahlenberg

THE EVERY STUDENT SUCCEEDS ACT & WHAT LIES AHEADby Frederick M. Hess

EARNING WHILE YOU’RE LEARNING THROUGH APPRENTICESHIPSby U.S. Senator Tim Scott

JOBS FOR AMERICA’S GRADUATES: A SUCCESS STORYby Ken Smith

www.riponsociety.org $6.95 U.S./$7.95 Canada

“Battle for th

e Middle Class”

Results of a Ripon Society National Survey

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Volume 50, Number 1

RIPON FORUM February 2016

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“Ideas that matter,since 1965.“

Politics and Perspective

4 The Challenge of Our Time By Adam Kinzinger At a time of great peril, this Congressman and combat veteran states that our national security interests throughout the world have never been in a more vulnerable state.

6 Ohio:ASureBetasBattleground&Bellwether By Ben Toll & Bryan W. Marshall If there were a sure bet in presidential politics, the Buckeye State would own the title, having voted for the winner every time except once since the end of World War II.

8 HowtoSayGoodbye By Edward J. Larson Even more than his service during the Revolutionary War, voluntarily surrendering the trappings of power for private life made George Washington an American hero.

CoverStory

11 TheEveryStudentSucceedsAct &WhatLiesAhead By Frederick M. Hess While the recent rewrite of the No Child Left Behind Act got many things right, even those who regard it as a clear conservative triumph have noted that it’s no more than three-quarters of a loaf.

14 Bridging the Economic School Divide By Richard D. Kahlenberg The flight of wealthy students from public to private schools is a constitutional right of families. But according to this education expert, it’s also a cause for concern.

Cover Story (cont’d.)

16 EarningWhileYou’reLearning Through Apprenticeships By Tim Scott Apprenticeships are a proven way to help people develop in-demand skills and to meet the needs of employers, yet they comprise just 0.2% of the nation’s workforce

18 JobsforAmerica’sGraduates: Demonstrating Consistent Success forHighest-RiskYouth By Ken Smith Here’s something every policymaker concerned about educating and boosting employment for the most at-risk youth should know: there is a program that works.

Special Feature

21 TheBattlefortheMiddleClass: ARiponSocietyNationalSurvey By Ed Goeas & Brian Nienaber With the 2016 election upon us, The Ripon Society conducted a national survey to examine the political environment and views of a key part of the American electorate. Sections

3 In this Edition

26 News&Events-House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Majority Whip Steve Scalise spoke to The Ripon Society in January about last year’s accomplishments and the goals for 2016. 28 RiponProfile-U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY-21)

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RIPON FORUM February 2016 3

In this EditionAbraham Lincoln once called education the “most important subject which we as a people can

be engaged in.” In recent years, education has also been a subject that has fallen victim to partisan gridlock and political dysfunction. The recent enactment of a plan to rewrite the No Child Left Behind Act was a victory over this dysfunction.

Called the Every Student Succeeds Act, the plan was also a victory for Republicans because of the reforms that were approved. We look at these reforms in our latest edition of The Ripon FoRum with an essay by respected education expert Frederick Hess of the American Enterprise Institute. In his essay, Hess not only highlights some of the key components of the bill, but also points out that the measure, while a “conservative triumph,” represents “no more than three quarters of the loaf.” To that end, Hess lays out five areas where additional reform is needed and Congress should consider taking action in the coming year.

Also writing on the subject of education reform is Richard Kahlenberg of the Century Foundation. Called “the intellectual father of the economic integration movement,” Kahlenberg’s focus is on a troubling fact about America’s educational system – namely, the fact that over half of public school students attend schools where a majority of their classmates qualify as poor or low-income under federal guidelines.“The flight of wealthy students from public to private schools is at once a constitutional right of families and a cause for unease,” Kahlenberg writes, adding that, “Public schools that have a healthy blend of middle class and lower-income students provide much stronger opportunities for all students.” To help achieve this goal, he points to an approach that was adopted in Cambridge, Massachusetts and that any Republican can support – turn every public school into a magnet school and give parents a choice of where they send their kids.

As Ken Smith notes in another essay for this edition, the challenges facing America’s students cannot be addressed by government alone. Smith is the President of Jobs for America’s Graduates, a state-based national non-profit organization that, in its 35-year history, has not only helped increase graduation rates, but has helped find jobs for more than one million at-risk and disadvantaged young men and women around the United States. “Consistent, sustained success is best achieved with the fully engaged support of both the public and private sectors,” Smith writes.

Another way of lifting people out of poverty, argues U.S. Sen. Tim Scott in another op-ed, is by expanding the educational pathways they can take. “Apprenticeships are a proven way to help people develop in-demand skills and to meet the needs of employers,” the South Carolina Senator writes. “Whether you are a 22-year-old living in poverty and looking for a way to improve your skillset, a 45-year-old looking to change careers, or a high school student who does not necessarily want to get a four year degree, the ability to be able to provide for yourself and your family while improving your future earning potential is invaluable.”

In addition to looking at the next steps in education reform, this latest edition of the FoRum also features the results of a Ripon Society national survey examining a key party of the American electorate in 2016 – the middle class. With threats to American security increasing around the world, one of the rising stars of the GOP, combat veteran and Congressman Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, writes about the need for the United States to confront and defeat radical Islam, which he calls “The Challenge of Our Time.” And with senior Republican congressional aides meeting at Mount Vernon this month for The Ripon Society’s 6th Annual Symposium on Leadership, Pulitzer Prize winner Edward Larson examines George Washington’s Farewell Address and shares his thoughts on the lessons it holds for today.

Finally, in our latest Ripon Profile, New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik shares her thoughts on such topics as the issue facing America no one is talking about and the federal agency most in need of reform.

As always, we hope you enjoy this edition of the FoRum, appreciate your readership, and encourage you to contact us with any thoughts or comments you may have.

Lou Zickar Editor of THE RIPON FORUM [email protected]

THE RIPON SOCIETYHONORARY CONGRESSIONAL ADVISORY BOARD

U.S. Senators:Shelley Moore Capito - Senate Co-ChairCory Gardner - Senate Co-Chair

Roy BluntRichard BurrBill Cassidy, M.D.Susan M. CollinsSteve DainesJoni ErnstDeb FischerOrrin G. HatchPat RobertsThom TillisRoger Wicker

U.S. Representatives:Pat Tiberi - House Co-ChairRenee Ellmers - House Co-ChairMartha Roby - Vice Chair, SouthErik Paulsen - Vice Chair, MidwestBill Shuster - Vice Chair, NortheastGreg Walden - Vice Chair, West

Mark AmodeiAndy BarrMike BishopDiane BlackMarsha BlackburnCharles BoustanySusan BrooksVern BuchananLarry Bucshon, M.D.Michael C. Burgess, M.D.Ken CalvertJason ChaffetzTom ColeBarbara ComstockRyan CostelloAnder CrenshawCarlos CurbelloRodney DavisJeff DenhamCharlie DentBob DoldSean DuffyRodney FrelinghuysenChris GibsonKay GrangerSam GravesRichard HannaDarrell IssaLynn JenkinsDave JoyceJohn Katko Mike KellyAdam Kinzinger Darin LaHoodLeonard LanceBilly LongFrank LucasTom MarinoKevin McCarthyCathy McMorris RodgersPatrick MeehanCandice MillerJohn MoolenaarRandy NeugebauerKristi NoemBruce PoliquinJohn RatcliffeTom ReedJim RenacciReid RibbleTom RooneyPeter RoskamSteve ScaliseJohn ShimkusLamar SmithSteve StiversGlenn ThompsonMac ThornberryMike TurnerFred UptonJackie WalorskiMimi WaltersEdward WhitfieldSteve WomackTodd Young


ADAM KINZINGER

At a time of such great peril, our national security interests throughout the world have never been in a more vulnerable state than they are today. Just look around the world and you will see so many hotspots emanating threats from state actors like Iran, Russia, and North Korea. There is no more volatile region right now than the Middle East with the ongoing crisis in Syria and the cancer of ISIS sweeping the region. As a combat veteran of our nation’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, I take very seriously the importance of protecting our country from the threat of Islamic jihadist terrorists. In 2016 and beyond, we need to stay on the offensive and bring the full might of American power and ingenuity to destroy this threat.

Since ISIS emerged on the scene more than two years ago, its numbers have increased exponentially, along with the threat and challenge it poses. Since that time, the President has failed to outline a viable strategy to defeat ISIS or reassure Americans of their security. Make no mistake: ISIS has declared war on Western Civilization. In the wake of the Paris attacks, the downing of a Russian passenger jet, and the mass-shooting in San Bernardino, the world can no longer deny the very real global reach of ISIS and the imminent danger it poses to us all if it is not destroyed.

In the last seven years, there has been a decline of American leadership around the globe. There is a perception that America is on the retreat from the rest of the world. This can be seen in our feckless response to the ISIS threat. Sitting on the sidelines, hoping they’ll go away hasn’t worked. More importantly, we cannot continue to accept that ISIS is equivalent to a “JV team” or that it has been “contained.” Every day that has gone by without a sufficient American

response has led to ISIS reaching its tentacles further into the Western world. Kidnappings, beheadings, public executions, and mass shootings are all proof of the ISIS threat to those who embrace freedom and a decent society.

The threat from Islamic jihadist terrorism and groups like ISIS continues to be a challenge for our time. Rather than developing non-strategies that do not defeat ISIS, we need leadership that acknowledges America’s indispensable role in leading this fight and protecting our national security. Congress continues to work at the heart of this problem by

passing legislation that will put additional security precautions in place that prevent ISIS and other terrorists from exploiting our goodwill. However, we also need a military component to defeat the ISIS cancer before it metastasizes any further.

We continue to support our allies in the region like Jordan, the Syrian Opposition, and the Kurdish Peshmerga as they stare down the

enemy. But more needs to be done in terms of our role. That is why I have been calling for Congress to debate and pass an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) for the President that allows him to utilize all our military tools to defeat ISIS without limiting his current authority as Commander-in-Chief.

In this fight, ISIS must know our President has the power and capability to unleash the full force of the U.S. military to do what it does best: destroy our enemies and protect our families from these barbarians. A new AUMF, which I introduced in February, will give the President, and his successor, the power, flexibility, and resources necessary

TheChallenge of Our Time

Politics & Perspective

The threat from Islamic jihadist terrorismandgroupslikeISIScontinuestobea

challenge for our time.


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to exercise the role of Commander-in-Chief in the most effective manner possible.

Without considerable intervention, ISIS will continue to take advantage of struggling nations in the Middle East and North Africa, to use propaganda to radicalize and recruit new soldiers, and to intensify the violence and chaos that has already overtaken the region. We need a Commander-in-Chief that understands this threat and will put forward the most effective strategy to defeat it.

Now more than ever, the United States needs to step up as a leader and defeat these threats to our national security and to civility around the world. This narrative has been a critical part of our history for decades. From the Greatest Generation in WWII to my generation, who I served with in the war on terror, we have all witnessed the power of America’s leadership in shaping international order and global security.

We are at a critical point in our nation’s history. It is our calling to defeat Islamic jihadist terrorism and to stand up against this evil force that threatens our way of life. The

decisions we make will be forever remembered by future generations, and it is our responsibility to rise to the occasion.

America is a great country – no, America is the greatest country! As a nation, we have faced many tough challenges, but we’ve always prevailed. I have no doubt that we can do so again and I believe wholeheartedly we will continue to defend and protect the values and diplomatic principles upon which we were founded. RF

Adam Kinzinger represents the 16th District of Illinois in the U.S. House of Representatives. He served in the Air Force in both Iraq and Afghanistan, and continues to serve America as a pilot in the Air National Guard.

Nowmorethanever,the United States needs

to step up as a leader and defeat these

threats.


B E N T O L L & B RYA N W. M A R S H A L L

Ohio is both a battleground and bellwether for presidential elections. It is highly competitive and carries a relatively large electoral vote prize for presidential aspirants. It is also a perennial predictor of presidential elections.

Indeed, if there were a sure bet in presidential politics, Ohio would own the title, having voted for the winner every time since the end of World War II, with the one exception being 1960 when choosing Richard Nixon over John F. Kennedy.

Since that missed call nearly six decades ago, Ohio voters have proven to be almost equally split between the two major party candidates, voting for the Democrat in six elections and the Republican in seven. Moreover, Ohio’s governor — John Kasich — is currently running to be the Republican nominee for president, Cleveland will host the Republican National Convention, and 2016 may witness one of the nation’s marquee matchups in which Ohio could help decide party control of the U.S. Senate. (The most recent poll numbers — Quinnipiac 9/25-10/5 — have former governor Ted Strickland at 46% and Incumbent Senator Rob Portman at 43%, but within the margin of error).

So, it is no wonder Republicans and Democrats each hope 2016 will see Ohio vote in their favor. For Republicans, there is a case to be made for Ohio’s demographics. Ohio has a larger percentage of whites (83%) than the national average (77.4%), and has a much lower percentage of Hispanic or Latino (3.5%) than the

national average (17.4%). These demographics, among other factors, led the Bush campaigns to focus heavily on the state of Ohio in 2000 and 2004.

Democrats are also optimistic about their presidential nominee taking Ohio. Ohio has always been a state with heavy union presence and ranks 16th in the

nation for union membership. It is home to a number of large cities that historically vote Democrat, with the best example being the Cleveland area. The Obama campaign relied heavily on young voters in college towns and cities throughout the state to win Ohio in 2008 and 2012. Thus, a Democratic campaign capitalizing on young voters, urban areas, and union households should help the party make a strong play for Ohio in 2016.

Political scientists typically find that a few key factors are likely to impact presidential voting. First, we often look at recent statewide elections and the important issues in the state. Republicans have done well in statewide Ohio elections recently as evidenced by Kasich’s 30-point margin of victory in 2014. Further, 12 of 16 U.S. Representatives are Republicans. Dating back to

2000, the highest two-party vote margin for a president was Obama’s 52.3% in 2008. The 2016 election will also see the reemergence of issues like abortion, which has already started with Attorney General Mike DeWine’s threat to sue Planned Parenthood. Another issue that could impact voter turnout and the discussion in Ohio is the rising toll of heroin abuse throughout the state and the potential for legalized marijuana — in some form — to be on the ballot again. These issues

Ohio has a larger percentage of whites(83%)thanthenationalaverage(77.4%),andhasamuchlowerpercentageofHispanicorLatino(3.5%)thanthenational

average(17.4%)

Ohio: A Sure Bet asBattleground & Bellwether


give us only mixed signals as to which way Ohio voters will lean in 2016.

Second, political scientists have found that the economy greatly impacts the vote. The economy should generally favor Democrats. The unemployment rate has dropped to 4.5% in Ohio (November 2015), while it is 5.0% nationwide. Ohio’s unemployment level is lower, by far, compared to the levels going into the last three presidential election cycles (5.7% in 11/2003, 5.6% in 11/2007, and 8.5% in 11/2008). It is not just Ohio’s economy that is doing well, as there is increasing evidence that Americans feel more comfortable making big purchases more than at any point before the 2008 recession. Political science research shows incumbent parties do well when the economy is doing well, and Democrats would seek to capitalize on this in Ohio and nationally.

Finally, approval of the incumbent — even if not running — has a major impact on how a state will vote. The eventual Democratic nominee may have reason to distance him- or herself from President Obama. In a 2015 Quinnipiac University poll, Ohio voters had the least favorable view of Obama out of any battleground state. Republicans would be wise to capitalize on this unfavorable impression of the administration, along with

Kasich’s candidacy — even if it goes nowhere — and use positive press in the state from the Cleveland convention.

What does all of this say about Ohio’s electoral college votes in 2016? It is likely to be a very close election again, but there is still too much to be determined about eventual nominees and the other election markers we have raised. That said, we do see strong evidence from polling of GOP primary voters that national security and terrorism are chief concerns. However, if the economy continues on the current upward trend, especially relative to lackluster performance in Europe and developing markets, the Democratic candidate will have a built in advantage. Elections research shows that the economy tends to trump other issues, and voters will vote their pocket-books in the general election. But, one thing is for certain -- come October all residents of Ohio will be tired of political commercials because both parties will bet heavily to win the Buckeye state. RF

Ben Toll is a Visiting Assistant Professor and Bryan W. Marshall is a Professor in the Department of Political Science at Miami University in Oxford, Ohio.

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“And then we’ll teach them how to say goodbye,” is how George Washington depicted the writing of his Farewell Address in the rap musical Hamilton. Of course, he already knew how to say goodbye. He’d mastered that act in 1783 when he’d retired as commander in chief following the American Revolution.

Extolled by later historians as a signal event that set the country’s political course, Washington’s first retirement was similarly praised at the time. Citing examples from Julius Caesar to Oliver Cromwell, British propagandists during the war had scoffed at Americans for rebelling against one King George only to gain another in George Washington. Successful rebel leaders inevitably become tyrants, they charged. Indeed, in England, when expatriate American painter Benjamin West predicted that Washington would retire upon the cessation of hostilities, a skeptical King George III replied, “If he does that, he will be the greatest man in the world.”

In America, Washington at once became a second Cincinnatus, the legendary ancient leader twice called from his farm and given supreme power to rescue republican Rome from its enemies only to return home once the dangers had passed. After three-month’s reflection on what had transpired, Thomas Jefferson commented, “The moderation and virtue of a single character probably prevented this revolution from being closed, as most others have been by a subversion of that liberty it was intended to establish.” Even more than Washington’s service during the Revolutionary War, which was performed without salary or leave for over eight years, voluntarily surrendering the trappings of power

for private life on a Virginia plantation made Washington a venerated American hero and world-renown personification of republican virtue. He had prefaced that act with a Circular Letter to the States that called on residents of the thirteen states, whom he call “citizens of America,” to forge a sovereign federal union that could protect liberty, promote prosperity, and preserve independence. All three were at risk under the weak confederation then looping the states into a loose alliance.

Cincinnatus had resigned twice, however, and retiring from the presidency after two terms gave Washington a second chance to establish a legacy of republican virtue. Up to this point, his Circular Letter stood as his most significant public document. In it, he had stressed that his call for a more perfect union could be trusted because he was retiring and had nothing to gain from consolidating power at the national level. He depicted it as disinterested advice from a retiring statesman. And it worked, though Washington and his fellow federalists had to invest more time and effort before the resulting union could be achieved with the ratification of a new Constitution and their sweep of the first federal elections.

The results transformed America.

Working like a team under Washington, the new executive, legislative, and judicial branches began the process of forging a continental republic from an assortment of states. The principal policies for doing so came from Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton, who emerged as Washington’s most influential advisor, much to the dismay of the more states’ rights-minded Jefferson and his followers. As Secretary of State, though, Jefferson made his contributions to the emerging order, such as by devising a broad regime of federally protected intellectual

How to Say Goodbye

Even more than his service during theRevolutionaryWar,voluntarilysurrenderingthetrappingsofpower

for private life on a Virginia plantation madeWashingtonavenerated

American hero.

EDWARD J. LARSON


property rights. With Secretary of War Henry Knox, he also backed Washington’s efforts to open the Ohio country for settlement, leading to prolonged warfare with the Western Confederacy of native tribes until its capitulation in 1795.

Hamilton’s nationalizing policies were founded on funding the full debt run up by Congress and the states during the Revolutionary War. He viewed this as a means to align the interests of wealthy Americans with the central government, displace the states as independent economic actors, and enhance the country’s credit. To pay for it, Hamilton pushed a tariff on imported goods, which would have the side-effect of sheltering American industry, and an excise tax on some domestic items such as whiskey, which he saw as a means to exert authority over frontier distillers. Jefferson reluctantly endorsed Hamilton’s idea of assuming state debts in return for moving the seat of government to the banks of the Potomac River.

As a capstone for his economic program, Hamilton wanted a quasi-independent central bank for the United States, co-owned by private investors, which would in effect regulate fiscal policy and provide a stable national currency. Here, Jefferson drew the line, claiming the Constitution did not authorize Congress to charter a bank. Washington sided with Hamilton, however, and the bank was chartered in 1791. By this point, two distinct factions had emerged with the leaders of each – Hamilton and Jefferson – in Washington’s cabinet.

Endorsed by both camps and encouraged to run as the only one able to bridge the growing partisan divide, Washington was unanimously re-elected in 1792. Under the facade of unity, however, two political parties were forming. On both sides, the outlines of party organizations emerged in the rise of partisan newspapers, the coordination of voting by Members of Congress, and party endorsements for political candidates. Members aligned with Jefferson even gained a slight edge in the House of Representative following the elections of 1792.

Events pushed partisanship during Washington’s second term. Frustrated by Hamilton’s domination over the administration, Jefferson left the cabinet in 1793. A year later, his partisans denounced the government for suppressing resistance to the whiskey tax in western Pennsylvania with

a 13,000-soldier army personally led by Washington. Then convulsions caused by the French Revolution and ensuing war between republican France and aristocratic England engulfed domestic politics. Washington’s decision to proclaim neutrality without consulting Congress outraged Jefferson and his supporters, who viewed the United States as bound to support its Revolutionary War ally. When the British Navy nevertheless seized hundreds of American merchant ships bound for French ports in the West Indies, they demanded a second war with England. Instead, in 1794, Washington sent John Jay to resolve differences between the United States and its former colonial master. Bargaining from a weak position, Jay’s treaty did little more than accept British limits on American trade with France in exchange for

seemingly meaningless concessions. For the first time, Washington’s popularity sagged.

In 1796, at age sixty-four, Washington announced that he would not accept a third term. He wanted to retire, again, to Mount Vernon. His Farewell Address, which (like his Circular Letter) was printed in newspapers rather than delivered as a speech, denounced p a r t i s a n s h i p , embraced nationalism, and discouraged permanent foreign alliances. Speaking to all Americans, Washington wrote, “The unity of Government which

constitutes you one people, is also now dear to you. It is justly so; for it is a main pillar in the edifice of your real independence, the support of your tranquility at home, your peace abroad; of your safety; of your prosperity; and of that very Liberty which you so highly prize.” This Address joined his Circular Letter as one of his two most significant public writings, with both crafted as parting advice to the American people from a retiring statesman. “I wanna talk about what I’ve learned,” was how Washington puts it in Hamilton. “One last time.” And one last time, he taught us how to say goodbye, leaving us a lasting legacy of republican virtue. RF

Edward J. Larson is University Professor of History and holds the Darling Chair in Law at Pepperdine University and is the Pulitzer Prizing winning author of The Return of George Washington: Uniting the States, 1783-1789.

Edward J. Larson at Mount Vernon

HisFarewellAddressdenouncedpartisanship,embracednationalism,and discouraged permanent foreign

alliances.


Cover Story

The Next Steps inEDUCATION REFORM


FREDERICK M. HESS

In December, after years of false starts, Congress passed the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA). The new law rewrote the 2001 No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB) and served as a long-overdue course correction to an era of steady federal encroachment into K-12 education. While hardly ideal, the new law gets the big things mostly right and points federal policy in a more promising direction.

A bit of history is helpful. In 1965, as part of President Lyndon Johnson’s War on Poverty, Congress passed the Elementary and Secondary Education Act (ESEA). ESEA sought to boost the achievement of disadvantaged students. Yet ESEA failed to deliver on that promise and no one knew whether federal money was actually helping.

In 2001, eager to ensure that federal funds were being used effectively and that vulnerable children would no longer be overlooked, President George W. Bush and key congressional Democrats revamped ESEA. The result was NCLB, a well-intentioned but flawed mash-up. It sought to do three big things, all important, but not all well-suited to federal efforts.

One was to promote transparency by requiring states to regularly test students in reading and math and to disaggregate and publicly report the results for individual schools and school systems.

The second was to set forth a federal framework for judging school performance, primarily in terms of the reading and math scores of different demographic groups. States were required to set steadily increasing goals for the proficiency of each group.

The third was to make schools improve by setting forth a mandated series of mostly ineffectual interventions for low-performing schools.

Ultimately, NCLB proved to be remarkably prescriptive about how states would measure school performance and what states would do to schools deemed “in need of improvement.” Absurdly, NCLB required that 100% of the nation’s children be “proficient” in

reading and math by 2014, with mandated consequences for schools that missed the bar.

Washington proved to be fairly good at transparency — at requiring states to regularly test, disaggregate results, and report performance. By requiring states to test in the same subjects and grades, Congress created a framework for public transparency. When it came to judging performance and trying to make schools improve, however, Uncle Sam was ill-equipped for the job. Crafting a national law that can apply to 100,000 schools in 50 states makes for clumsy metrics and whimsical, pie-in-the-sky targets.

Indeed, NCLB’s unfortunate legacy included allowing the Obama administration to dictate K-12 policy via quid pro quo waivers granted to states desperate to escape NCLB’s 100% proficiency mandate — or else label most of their public schools as failures. The Secretary of Education released dozens of states from NCLB’s

fantasy targets if — and only if — they promised to pursue Obama priorities. In this way, the Obama administration helped turn the Common Core into a divisive distraction and poisoned new teacher evaluation systems by forcing states to hurriedly implement not-ready-for-primetime schemes on a politically determined timetable.

ESSA was intended to clean up the various messes that came in NCLB’s wake: a capricious accountability system, a nonsensical series of mandates around school improvement, an unhealthy obsession with testing, and states that felt blackmailed by the U.S. Department of Education. ESSA did a remarkable job of getting most of the big things right.

ESSA did a far better job than NCLB of separating the baby from the bathwater. ESSA retains NCLB’s requirement that states test once a year in reading and math (in grades 3-8 and once in high school) and science (once in elementary, middle, and high school).

Meanwhile, ESSA gets Washington (mostly) out of the business of judging whether schools are failing

The Every Student Succeeds Act& What Lies Ahead

Craftinganationallawthatcanapplyto100,000schoolsin50statesmakesforclumsymetricsandwhimsical,pie-in-the-sky

targets.


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and (wholly) out of the business of mandating school improvement strategies.

The result should help to cool test mania by allowing states to develop accountability systems that are less reliant on once-a-year reading and math scores. It requires that state accountability systems continue to base more than half of school ratings on achievement measures, but permits states to incorporate other measures as they see fit.

In response to the Obama administration’s unprecedented and legally dubious use of quid pro quo waivers, ESSA imposed a raft of new prohibitions on the U.S. Department of Education’s ability to manipulate states or involve itself in their affairs.

ESSA also included big wins for charter schooling and public school choice, with charter schools getting the law’s only notable funding increase and the creation of a pilot program that allows up to fifty school districts leeway to use federal funds as part of a “weighted student funding” model.

While ESSA got these big things mostly right, even those of us who regard it as a clear conservative triumph have noted that it’s no more than three-quarters of a loaf. There is still plenty of work yet to do. Five opportunities for improvement particularly stand out:

First, while ESSA pares back NCLB’s overwrought accountability and intervention mandates, its 1,000+ pages leave far too much room for bureaucratic mischief. Its language is murky enough that the law’s clear restrictions on federal involvement still might be transformed into a troubling invitation to bureaucratic mischief.

Second, closely related, is that how ESSA is implemented is what will ultimately matter. All the law’s clear prohibitions on federal involvement in state standards, accountability systems, or testing still depend on faithful execution. Ensuring that the statutory language is obeyed and put into practice is critical work that requires legislative knowledge and diligence.

Third, conservatives had to make serious compromises to get the deal done. The most significant

of these was on school choice, where they threw in the towel on efforts to allow low-income students to use federal Title I funds at the public or private school of their choice. A viable compromise is to modify the law so that it simply allows states to expand school choice in this manner.

Fourth, a critical and appropriate federal role when it comes to K-12 schooling is the support of research. This is a case of a classic public good, but one where the U.S. has historically underinvested — with Washington spending

on education research barely 1% of what the nation spends on medical research. While research is better addressed under the Education Sciences Research Act than under ESSA, investing in quality research is an essential part of getting the post-ESSA federal role right.

Fifth, smart federal education policy is rooted in the recognition that federal mandates are moderately effective when simply requiring that states do them is enough. For instance, requiring states to administer annual tests and report the results is pretty straightforward. It’s an easy requirement to enforce, and therefore entails little red tape or intrusion. When it comes to things like accountability systems and school improvement, however, whether they’re done matters infinitely less than how they’re done. Here federal efforts have yielded incoherent mandates,

bureaucratic sprawl, and one-size-fits-all dictates, with lots of consequent foot-dragging and ineptitude.

Fighting to have Washington do more when it comes to schooling is not the same thing as fighting for better schools. In the ESSA era, it’s crucial to know where Washington can help and where it can’t — and to insist that policymakers lead accordingly. RF

Frederick M. Hess is director of education policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. His books include Carrots, Sticks, and the Bully Pulpit: Lessons from a Half-Century of Federal Efforts to Improve America’s Schools.

WhileESSAgotthesebigthingsmostlyright,eventhoseofuswhoregarditasaclearconservative triumph have notedthatit’snomorethan

three-quarters of a loaf.

Frederick M. Hess


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RICHARD D. KAHLENBERG

The 19th century educator Horace Mann, the founding father of American public education, famously called public schools the “great equalizer.” They would give all children, no matter their background, the chance to succeed. But in order to do so, Mann believed, schools had to be “common schools,” educating rich and poor under one roof. The presence of affluent and high-achieving students raises the standard of achievement, he argued, and “the mass will rise again and reach it. Hence the removal of the most forward scholars from a school is not a small misfortune.”

For centuries, Americans violated the common school ideal when laws segregated schools by race. The remnants of that stain remain, but in more recent years, a new pattern has emerged. As Harvard political scientist Robert Putnam notes in his book, Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis, rising residential segregation by class “has been translated into de facto class-based school segregation.” This is troublesome, Putnam writes, because extensive evidence suggests, “whom you go to school with matters a lot.”

Private schools, which have been a longstanding part of the American landscape, are today contributing to the country’s economic balkanization. As wealthy Americans retreat from the public sphere – using private security services in gated communities – many are also using private education for their children.

In 2012, private school parents were almost twice as likely to come from relatively wealthy families as public school parents. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 60

Bridging theEconomic School Divide

percent of private school parents made more than $75,000 a year (the Bureau’s highest income bracket), compared to 32 percent of public school parents.

The flight of wealthy students from public to private schools is at once a constitutional right of families and a

cause for unease, given evidence that public schools are stronger when they educate a broad cross section of students. Fourth grade low-income students who have the chance to attend more affluent public schools, for example, are as much as two years ahead of low-income students in high-poverty schools on the National Assessment for Educational Progress in mathematics.

To be clear, it would be wrong to try to rob families of their right to spend their own money to attend a private school of their choosing. In the 1925 case of Pierce v. Society of Sisters, the U.S. Supreme Court held that parents have the right to choose to send their children to private school.

But public schools should make strong efforts to draw students from all walks of life back into the public schools. In Cambridge, Massachusetts, for example, school officials turned every traditional public school into a magnet school – with special themes or pedagogical approaches to attract families.

Choices are honored with an eye to ensuring that all the schools have a strong mix of low income and more affluent students. When Cambridge instituted its all-choice, all-magnet system, it was able to draw a substantial number of students who had previously used private school into the public school system.

Theflightofwealthystudentsfrompublicto

private schools is at once a constitutional right of families and a cause for

unease.

Richard D. Kahlenberg


Public schools that have a healthy blend of middle-class and lower-income students provide much stronger opportunities for all students. As Acting U.S. Secretary of Education John B. King, Jr. noted in a recent address commemorating Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday, “Research shows that one of the best things we can do for all children — black or white, rich or poor — is give them a chance to attend strong, socioeconomically diverse schools.”

As compared to high-poverty schools, economically-mixed schools provide an environment in which peers are, on average, more academically engaged, parents are in a position to volunteer in class, and strong teachers have high expectations.

Wealthy and white students benefit as well. For the first time in American history, a majority of public school pupils today are students of color. As our nation grows increasingly diverse, integrated public schools help students learn a valuable skill – how to get along with students whose backgrounds are different from their own.

Integrated schools also strengthen our nation as a whole by providing what the American Federation of Teachers president Albert Shanker called the “glue that has held this country together.” Shanker wrote: “A

Martian who happened to be visiting Earth soon after the United States was founded would not have given this country much chance of surviving. He would have predicted that this new nation, whose inhabitants were of different races, who spoke different languages, and who followed different religions, wouldn’t remain one nation for long. They would end up fighting and killing each other…. But that didn’t happen. Instead, we became a wealthy and powerful nation–the freest the world has ever known… Public schools played a big role in holding our nation together.”

Americans will always have the right to send their children to private schools. But we will all benefit when we strengthen the public schools to the point that increasing numbers will want to choose the public schools that have served our country so well. RF

Richard D. Kahlenberg, a senior fellow at The Century Foundation, is the author of All Together Now: Creating Middle-Class Schools through Public School Choice (Brookings Press, 2001), and the editor of The Future of School Integration: Socioeconomic Diversity as an Education Reform Strategy (Century Foundation Press, 2012).

CONSENSUS & LEADERSHIP.


T I M S C O T T

As we seek ways to strengthen our economy, lift up those living in poverty, and ensure that every person living in our great nation has access to the American Dream, a key part of the equation comes down to job training and technical skills.

Many of the working poor and those living in poverty cannot afford to return to school, or simply do not have the time between working two or three jobs to support their families. So if an infusion of new jobs comes to their areas, such as the manufacturing renaissance we are experiencing in my home state of South Carolina, these hardworking men and women are hard pressed to take advantage of those new opportunities.

Related to this, one of the most persistent problems facing our economy over the past eight years has been a declining labor force participation rate. Millions of Americans have simply given up attempting to find work, either because their skill sets do not match the available jobs in their areas, or they have become so frustrated with a stagnant economy they just stop looking. This decline comes even as there are more than five million open jobs across the country – jobs that many employers explain are unfilled because of a lack of available trained workers.

In response to these challenges, I am proud to have worked with my colleague Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) on what we believe to be a strong solution – the

Leveraging and Energizing America’s Apprenticeship Programs Act, or LEAP Act.

Apprenticeships are a proven way to help people develop in-demand skills and to meet the needs of employers, yet they comprise just 0.2% of the nation’s workforce. By 2020, the United States is expected

to experience a shortage of 3 million workers with associate degrees or higher and 5 million workers with technical certificates and credentials.

Studies show that apprenticeships are a wise investment for both participants and the government: individuals who complete registered apprenticeship programs earn over $240,000 more over their careers than people who did not participate in such programs, and the tax return on every Federal Government dollar invested in registered apprenticeship programs is $27.

As we’ve seen in places like my home state of South Carolina, a strong program can help people accomplish great things. Because of our balanced approach in South Carolina, we have seen multi-national companies like General

Electric and BMW, as well as many smaller businesses across the state, begin to use the program and provide new employment opportunities for individuals.

That’s why the LEAP Act is modeled after the Apprenticeship Carolina program, which is built on public-private partnerships for students along with a tax

Earning While You’re Learning Through Apprenticeships

Apprenticeships are a proven waytohelppeopledevelop

in-demand skills and to meet theneedsofemployers,yettheycomprisejust0.2%ofthe

nation’sworkforce


credit for job creators. The bill, which is fully paid for, has two main provisions:

First, it offers a federal tax credit for hiring new apprentices that are registered with the U.S. Department of Labor or a state apprenticeship agency.

Second, it addresses the fact that the average age of apprentices is currently as high as 29 by offering a tax credit of $1,500 for apprentices under 25. The tax credit for apprentices over 25 is $1,000.

When I visited MTU, an international diesel engine manufacturer with a production facility outside Aiken, South Carolina, I was able to learn firsthand from the employees and program participants just how important the program was to their families now and in the future. At Trident Technical College in North Charleston, I watched how their technical training matched with our growing aerospace industry. With such a wide variety of industries looking to utilize apprentices, from advanced manufacturing, to health care and information technology to our tourism industry, South Carolina has shown that programs like this offer

Perhapsthemostpowerfultoolapprenticeshipsgiveissimplytheability

toearnwhileyoulearn.

limitless opportunity. However, perhaps the most powerful tool

apprenticeships give is simply the ability to earn while you learn. Whether you are a 22-year-old living in poverty and looking for a way to improve your skillset, a 45-year-old looking to change careers, or a high school student who does not necessarily want to get a four year degree, the

ability to be able to provide for yourself and your family while improving your future earning potential is invaluable.

There has been an increased interest in

apprenticeships over the past six months, with presidential candidates discussing their importance as well as high profile Members of Congress, and I am optimistic we will find a way forward this year. Our workforce is only as good as the tools we make available, and expanded apprenticeship programs would be a great addition to the toolkit. RF

Tim Scott is the junior United States senator from South Carolina.

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KEN SMITH

Here’s something every policymaker concerned about educating and boosting employment for the most at-risk youth should know: there is a program that works. It’s Jobs for America’s Graduates (JAG). JAG was founded in Delaware by Republican Governor Pete du Pont. The results are amazing – yet JAG remains one of America’s “best-kept secrets.”

This year JAG celebrates its 35th Anniversary. It has served more than one million of the nation’s most at-risk and disadvantaged young people, with consistent and compelling results, including:

Dramatically increasing graduation rates to 90% or above;

Doubling the rates of poor and disadvantaged young people who are able to secure jobs and tripling the rates that they secure full-time jobs; and,

Increasing the rates of both higher education enrollment and completion for this same population – the great majority of whom are first-generation college students.

In 1979, Governor du Pont assembled state leaders from business, labor, education, and the community to address consistent failures to either educate at-risk young people or prepare them well for college or employment. Consistent with his reputation for frugal, effective government, du Pont wanted a program that worked and was cost-effective. The result was Jobs for Delaware Graduates. That model is now working in 1,000 locations in 32 states.

JAG is championed and led by a bipartisan group of Governors. As JAG begins its 36th year, ten Governors now serve on the Board of Directors – the largest number of Governors to serve on any Board. JAG is chaired by Republican Governor Phil Bryant of Mississippi, with Governor Steve Bullock of Montana (D), Governor Mike Pence of Indiana (R), and Governor Jay Nixon of Missouri (D) as Vice Chairs. Reflecting

Jobs for America’s Graduates: Demonstrating Consistent Successfor Highest-Risk Youth

the national public/private partnership of JAG, serving on the JAG Board of Directors today are the U.S. President of United Way Worldwide, former Governor of Michigan John Engler (R) (President of the Business Roundtable), the President of the National Urban League, and “C-suite” executives from leading Fortune 500 companies, such as AT&T, G.E., IBM, JPMorgan

Chase, HCA, Archer Daniels Midland, Microsoft, among others.

As the nation begins a major election year, we can be sure that almost all the candidates for every office will highlight important goals for education and jobs. It is our responsibility to encourage them to address the challenge for all of our young people by highlighting “what works” at scale and over time. The economy needs these young people, and employers need them well prepared for the demanding economy ahead.

JAG offers a remarkable 35-year track record of success at true scale, over a long period of time, from the most rural areas (like the Mississippi Delta, northern New England, and Native American reservations in eastern Montana) to the most urban (downtown Chicago, Washington, DC, Atlanta, Phoenix, and South Central Los Angeles).

The JAG Model is remarkable in its simplicity and consistency. The core offerings, whether in middle school, high school, or out-of-school/dropout recovery programs, use “Job Specialists” to ensure student success. Those individuals are held personally accountable for students’ success in school, on the job, and/or in college, through a critical component of the JAG program – 12 months of follow-up support for students after high school graduation. The support of the U.S. public education system typically ends at high school graduation. Under public and private sector leadership, Jobs for

Asthenationbeginsamajorelectionyear,wecanbesurethat almost all the candidates

foreveryofficewillhighlight important goals for

educationandjobs.

Ken Smith


America’s Graduates concluded that high school graduation is necessary, but not sufficient to accomplish the main objective: ensuring that students will get good quality jobs that can lead to future career and growth opportunities. That is why the JAG program holds the Job Specialists accountable for student success in both high school graduation and employment after high school.

The JAG Model includes our National Employability Skills curriculum, with instruction on 37-88 Employment Competencies required by most small and medium-sized employers. The JAG Model requires a class period a day for that instructional phase, which also builds a trusting relationship with the Job Specialist. Keys to the program are the content, youth engagement, and activity-based learning under the supervision of the Job Specialist. In addition, students participate in a number of national competitive events to further engage and motivate them and demonstrate their employability skills in real-time settings, with employers serving as judges.

Those competitive events are built into a second component of the program: the JAG Career Association. We believe that the JAG student organization is the “secret sauce” of our success. The association is similar to Junior Achievement, vocational student organizations, Boys Clubs and Girls Clubs, but customized to fit this population – 90% of whom report that they had never been invited to join any club. The JAG Career Association has terrific motivational and self-esteem building consequences. Each chapter elects officers and organizes competitive events among themselves, schools in their area and state, and ultimately at the national level.

We are often asked, “What is the most important ingredient in the success of JAG?” We have also asked our young people that question, and it is no surprise that they consistently answer “the Job Specialist.” They look to the Job Specialists as role models, mentors, and friends, but Specialists must also often be a “nag” – to ensure that students come to school, meet their educational requirements, and aid in external problems such as housing, healthcare, challenges at home, domestic violence, lack of transportation, etc. When students are asked “What was the most important thing your Job Specialist did?,” most often the answer is, “They listened to me.” It sounds simple, but has a tremendous impact.

TheBottomLineAfter successfully serving more than one million

youth, JAG believes that policy makers should consider the following points:

1) We do know what it takes to help even the highest-risk and most disadvantaged youth succeed both in school and on the job. The nation has proven techniques to consistently and cost-effectively help even the most at-risk students succeed, both in school and on the job.

2) Consistent, sustained success is best achieved with the fully engaged support of both the public and private

sectors, including their investments of time, talent, and treasure. Many other programs have come and gone while JAG has persisted. Most organizations do not last five years and very few make it to 10 years – yet JAG is about to enter its 36th year, growing and achieving some of its highest results.

3) Today, multiple sources of state and federal funding can be used. The key is breaking down the many funding “silos” to support a statewide, coherent, and consistent strategy. In addition to the 23 states that make direct appropriations,

states regularly use the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act, Community Development Block Grants, and Perkins Act funding to finance their JAG programs.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce conducted a random sample survey of the 5,000 employers across the nation who regularly hire JAG students. The survey showed a 96% “customer satisfaction” rating among these employers. They found JAG students to be much better prepared (having more of the employability skills described above), more customer service oriented, and more able to communicate, conceptualize, and show up for work on time – a clear definition of success.

In short, JAG is a uniquely American story of success for its most at-risk population – forged, tested, and proven at scale and over three decades of time by bipartisan national and state leaders, with the strong and engaged support of the private sector. RF

Ken Smith serves as President of Jobs for America’s Graduates (www.jag.org).

JAGoffersaremarkable35-yeartrackrecord of success.

Students in Russellville, AR accept a $15,000 grant from theState Deptartment of Career Education and the AT&T Foundation

for the JAG program last fall.


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Special Feature

Most all of the early political and policy discussions have been, and will continue to be, focused on the Presidential Primaries. As is often the case in past presidential elections without an incumbent running for reelection, the “out” party candidates have been largely focused on what is wrong with the policies of the current Administration. Meanwhile, the “in” party candidates are trying to ride that tight-rope of not running for a third term of an unpopular President without totally disconnecting with that Party’s base voters – in other words – new and improved.

Once the nomination process is set, however, expect two things to happen. First, with no incumbent President running for reelection, the 2016 Presidential Election will turn from a debate about problems with the current political and economic environment to one about the future. Second, as that shift occurs, both candidates and their parties will focus a significant amount of attention on winning the hearts and minds of middle class voters.

This survey, conducted for the Ripon Society, was designed to examine the political environment and to examine the voters’ views on tax and economic policies, placing a particular emphasis on the views of middle class voters – the true Republican base. As has been the case in virtually every national survey conducted by The Tarrance Group over the last three decades, this survey finds that seven-in-ten voters (70%) self-identify their economic class as “middle class”, and fifty four percent (54%) of voters as “white” middle class.

Not only will the presidential candidate who can

build the best case that they hold the strongest principles and policies leading to a brighter economic future for these middle class voters have the best chance of winning in November, but this data shows that the Republicans in Congress can begin laying that groundwork in the battle for the middle class now, before the presidential nomination process is in full swing and makes the

transition to the future.

Political Environment andtheMoodoftheAmerican Electorate

A lot has been written in recent months about the “angry voter” of the 2015-2016 election Cycle. Dissatisfaction with Washington and the “direction of the country” is nothing new with the American electorate. Whether Republicans or Democrats have controlled the White House, the Congress, or both, over sixty percent of voters have felt that the country was off on the wrong track for well over a decade. Indeed, voters are remarkably negative

about the status quo and direction of the country, and those feelings have grown even more intense in recent years. A strong majority (70%) of voters think the country is on the “wrong track”, including an overwhelming majority of fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters who “strongly” believe the country is off on the wrong track.

It is also important to note this strongly held view about the country being on the wrong track is not strictly driven by partisanship. It is shared by an overwhelming number of Republicans (92%), Independents (77%), middle class voters (71%), and even conservative Democrats (57%). The intensity of these wrong track voters is further reinforced, in that, fifty-three percent

“The Battle for the Middle Class”A Ripon Society National Survey

DissatisfactionwithWashingtonandthe“directionofthecountry”isnothingnewwiththeAmerican

electorate.

analysis byED GOEAS & BRIAN NIENABER


(53%) believe that “time is running out” for the country to get going in the right direction.

Having policy proposals that could make a real difference in our Country’s direction and in the economic fortunes of middle class voters will be a tremendous asset in the coming election cycle. Therein lies one of the major hurtles the Democrats face in the upcoming election battles. The current leader of the Democratic Party, President Obama, has a majority job disapproval rating of fifty-one percent (51%), and the intensity on his job approval rating is at a 1.4 to 1 “strongly disapprove” negative ratio (46% strongly disapprove to 33% strongly approve). With middle class voters, President Obama’s disapproval number only gets worse and more intense. By forty-four percent (44%) to fifty-three percent (53%), middle class voters disapprove of the job the President is doing, and “strongly” disapprove by a net 15 points.

As with the voters’ concerns about the direction of the country, the President’s majority disapproval rating is not just held with Republicans. A majority of middle class voters (53%), white middle class (61%), and Independents (56%) also hold negative views of the President.

The Democratic nominee for President will face the challenging political calculus of needing to distance themselves from many of the President’s policies while also needing the votes of most, if not all, of the President’s strongest political supporters within the Democratic base. This will offer a real opportunity for Republicans to chart a path of proposing concepts that work without having to worry about walking a tightrope with a needed voter bloc that holds a much different view than the rest of the electorate.

This does not mean, however, that the path for the Republicans will be any easier in light of the decade long angst about the direction of the country and voter cynicism about Washington’s ability to truly address real problems with effective solutions. Voters are also negative in general about solutions from the federal government and hold mixed views on government action. More than two-in-three voters (68%) think the federal government is part of the problem for the challenges facing their family. In addition, a strong majority of voters (59%) thinks that the government would not be able to effectively implement a solution to a major problem.

Despite these attitudes, however, voters have not totally given up. Fully sixty-nine percent (69%) of

voters think that the federal government is not doing enough to solve the problems facing the country versus just fifteen percent of voters (15%) who think the government is doing too much and twelve percent of voters (12%) who think the government is doing the right amount.

Clearly, simple sloganeering like “Hope and Change” is not going to meet the smell test with voters this political season. The current political environment has voters thinking the federal government is an ineffective mess that is causing more harm than good. However, they still want this government to be doing more . . . more that works . . . and works for them.

Nowhere is this truer than with the middle class, seventy percent (70%) of whom believe the federal government is part of the problem, not part of the solution. In addition, sixty percent (60%) of middle class voters believe that the government would not be able to effectively implement a solution to a major problem (53% “strongly” hold that position). As with

the broader electorate, sixty-nine percent (69%) of middle class voters feel that the federal government is not doing enough to solve the problems facing the country. Compounding this, the middle class also has deeply held feelings that the next generation will not do as well as their generation (70%), moving the American Dream further

from their reach. Seventy-five percent (75%) believe that with the current federal government solutions, the rich get the benefits, the poor get the programs, and the middle class get the bill.

So for the middle class in this election, the frustration runs deeper, as will the measurement they use in deciding where to cast their vote. They feel the country is, and has been, moving in the wrong direction. They are extremely negative about the current President and his policies, but are equally cynical about the ability of the federal government to effectively implement solutions that work, and truly question whether those solutions are aimed at making their lives better. To top it off, those solutions may be moving the American Dream further and further from their reach. There is a path for Republicans in the upcoming election, but it is not as simple as a few choice issue positions or creative slogans. It is about painting a full picture of where we want to take this country to build a better future, and more specifically build a stronger economic future for the middle class.

Digging into specific concerns, a strong majority

HavingpolicyproposalsthatcouldmakearealdifferenceinourCountry’sdirectionand

in the economic fortunes of middleclassvoterswillbea

tremendous asset in the coming electioncycle.


(67%) of voters are very worried (24%) or somewhat worried (43%) that the United States will suffer another economic downturn over the next twelve months. Awareness of this level of economic anxiety should be an important consideration as proposals are put forward. Much of the electorate views policy debates in Washington through a lens of both discontent with the status quo and fear that the future will bring bad financial news for their family.

It should also be noted that just 26% of voters believe that the next generation will have a better quality of life while 69% believe the next generation will not. In other words, the American Electorate truly questions whether the American Dream, a better life for our children and grandchildren, is still within reach.

Indeed, the economic issues that are important to middle class voters are the “kitchen table/pocketbook” issues on which Republicans should have the advantage. The top issues selected were creating jobs (20%), reducing the cost of health care (15%), reducing the deficit (14%), and cutting taxes (11%). These are all issues on which a political party who is united on the need for fiscal responsibility should be able to make a compelling case for improvement to voters.

Finally, one of the biggest surprises within the data considering the cynicism of the voters about Washington and the direction of the country was the attention level of the voters. The political environment as we begin 2016 finds many voters enthusiastic about having a voice in the upcoming elections, but wary about both the status quo and their economic future.

Overall, 70% of voters say that they are “extremely likely” to vote, a level of intensity often not seen, even in the final weeks before the election. Republicans (72%) and middle class voters (73%) are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats (68%) or lower income voters (57%). While the generic Congressional ballot is a statistical tie (42% GOP/43% DEM) and partisans are at parity in their current level of support for their own party, there are real opportunities for Republicans to make gains. Republicans have a slight edge with middle class voters (44% GOP/42% DEM), and a solid lead with white middle class voters (52% GOP/36% DEM). Additionally, 14% of middle class voters are undecided and Republicans enjoy strong support from those voters whose top issue of economic concern is cutting taxes (66%) or reducing the deficit (61%). If Republicans can make a strong case that they have

policies to get the country on an economic path that is both fairer for the middle class and provides more economic opportunities, there are real gains to be made.

MiddleclassvotersAs noted earlier, our national survey work has

consistently found that around seven-in-ten likely voters self-identify as middle class. The size of this group makes it one of the largest and broadest demographic groups in the electorate. While a majority of middle class voters are white, there are a notable number of middle class voters who are African Americans (8%) or Hispanics (6%). In the current economic and political environment, there are a significant number of middle class voters whose first test of a policy will be its economic impact on them. This mindset provides a valuable opportunity for Republicans to increase their support among minority voters. These middle class minority voters will be willing to consider Republican policies and candidates if they are convinced that these

policies will have a positive impact on their personal finances.

A clear sign of the electoral gains to be made with these voters is seen on the generic Congressional ballot. On this ballot test, almost one quarter (22%) of middle class African American voters are either already voting GOP (13%) or

undecided (9%). Getting to just twenty percent support among African Americans would be more than three times the amount of support African American voters gave Republican Congressional candidates in 2008.

For Hispanics, 45% of middle class Hispanic voters are either already supporting the GOP (21%) or are undecided (24%). This is an impressive amount of openness to persuasion considering much of the political chatter in 2015 was consumed by a leading GOP Presidential candidate making inflammatory statements about Mexican immigrants. Middle class Hispanic voters are open to giving Republican candidates a chance to make their case, especially on economic issues.

As seen throughout this analysis, middle class voters of all races are anxious about the direction of the country, worried that the federal government may not have the tools and the skills to fix problems, and anxious about their personal economic situation. They want a government that will provide better opportunities and assuage their fears, but they are distrustful and skeptical that the government will be able to make positive changes.

Simple sloganeering like “HopeandChange”isnot

going to meet the smell test withvotersthispolitical

season.


FramingthedebateonfiscalissuesThe best place to start at solving this problem is to

set the terms of the debate on the fiscal issues facing the country. For example, Speaker Ryan has already taken a big step in that direction by framing the economic goal of his speakership as creating greater upward mobility in our society. That economic goal receives seventy-nine percent (79%) agreement with the total electorate and middle class, seventy-seven percent (77%) with Republicans voters, and grows to eighty-one percent (81%) with middle class whites and eighty-two percent (82%) with middle class African Americans.

As seen in the chart below, there is broad consensus among voters that a federal government that reins in its spending, embraces technology, promotes economic opportunity, reforms welfare, and treats the middle class

better would be a significant improvement over our current federal government.

Other statements tested -- like the benefits of cutting the corporate tax rate (56% agree) and support for a health care reform with lower costs but fewer insured (52% agree) -- have majority agreement, but far less broad support. Cutting the corporate tax rate and this type of health care reform concept test well with base Republican voters, but other voters do not yet agree with these assertions and are less effective in framing the debate in a way that allows us to add the brush strokes of specific economic and tax issues.

While selling optimism and policies that allow economic mobility will be crucial over the next year in framing our economic and tax policies, we should always

be mindful that many voters begin in a very pessimistic place about the economic future of the country, and we have to address their concerns about the fading American Dream with solid goals and real solutions.

Voters will give positive consideration to policies that are aimed to achieve goals with which they agree. Laying the groundwork of informing voters of your philosophy and your intent is as important as the specifics of any fiscal policy. In fact, many voters will not delve into the minute details of policy and will instead make a decision about this policy based on their view of the intent behind the proposal.

In testing a variety of tax reform proposals and budget policy reform proposals, the strongest support came for tax policies aimed at making the tax system fairer and flatter and for budget policies aimed at promoting

targeted workforce development programs, focusing health policy spending on finding cures, and reviewing the utility of federal regulations. Voters clearly favor policies aimed at creating an economic environment where taxation is more equitable and understandable as well as a federal budgeting process aimed at maximizing economic opportunities and solving real problems.

ConclusionsRepublicans have an extraordinary opportunity

in 2016 to make a strong case to voters overall and especially to middle class voters that they are the party with the best fiscal and budget policies. Voters are highly dissatisfied with Washington and very anxious about their personal economic situation. However, while

For more charts from The Ripon Society national survey, please visit www.riponsociety.org.


wary and distrustful of government, they still want a government that tries to take action.

It will be important to first lay the groundwork with voters of explaining the intent behind these policies. There is broad agreement among voters that a federal government that spends less, uses technology more effectively, promotes economic mobility, and treats the middle class more fairly is a federal government that most voters would strongly support. Policies that are clearly pursuing these goals will receive the support of voters.

Winning the hearts and minds of middle class voters will be an enormous help for Republicans. Winning the strong support of these voters will ensure a Presidential victory and will ensure that Republicans maintain control of Congress. Making an effective appeal to middle class voters will also ensure that Republicans achieve a level of support from minority voters not seen since at least

2008. The road to winning at the polls in November will run through the middle class and the road to winning with middle class voters runs through convincing them of your intention to make economic mobility a real

possibility. RF

MethodologyThe Tarrance

Group is pleased to present these key findings from a national survey of likely voters nationwide. All respondents interviewed in this study were part of a

fully representative sample of N=1000 registered likely voters. Responses to this survey were gathered December 12-16, 2015. The confidence interval associ ated with a sample of this type is ±3.1% in 19 of 20 cases. RF

Ed Goeas is President & CEO and Brian Nienaber is a Vice President at The Tarrance Group, one of the most respected and successful Republican research and strategy firms in American politics today.

Weshouldalwaysbemindfulthatmanyvotersbegininaverypessimisticplaceabouttheeconomicfutureofthecountry,andwehavetoaddresstheirconcernsaboutthefadingAmericanDreamwith

solid goals and real solutions.

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News & Events

WASHINGTON, DC – House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (CA-23) and Majority Whip Steve Scalise (LA-1) appeared before a luncheon meeting of The Ripon Society on January 12th, delivering remarks in which they discussed not only some of the key accomplishments in Congress over the past 12 months, but the importance of having a bold agenda in 2016.

“It was a busy year,” Scalise stated, referring to 2015. “The Majority Leader had a very impressive schedule on the floor. And we’re going to have a very impressive schedule on the floor this year…It’s important for us to be bold, especially with a presidential race later this year that’s going to take all of the oxygen out of the room. While we have a few months, while people are still paying attention to what’s going on in Congress, we have a real opportunity to show people what we stand for.

“But when you look at 2015, we ended with an omnibus bill where we laid out a number of things we wanted to achieve. We wanted to first of all get more buy-in from our own Members. Early on, getting 100 of our Members to vote for it would have been a significant accomplishment. But we pushed for a majority of the majority, and we had 150 Republicans vote for the final product. There were some important components in that, especially tied to tax extenders. We got 20 different tax extenders made permanent, including R&D, putting some certainty in a tax code that’s had big, big problems with uncertainty. That was a big achievement.

“Getting a highway bill done and paid for – that was also a big achievement. We were able to come

together with the Senate for the first time since 2001 to pass a budget that actually gets to balance in a 10-year window. That’s not something that should happen every 15 years, but it was something we were able to do. It was a big achievement, too, and it gave us a tool of reconciliation to go after Obamacare. Ultimately, we were able to pass a bill that guts Obamacare and defunds Planned Parenthood and get it to the President’s desk. He vetoed it last

week. But the Majority Leader has set a date, and on January 26th we’ll have the first-ever House vote to override a Barack Obama veto. It shows people that if you actually had a President who shared our values, you could gut Obamacare, which has devastated jobs all across the country.”

Pointing to other agreements that Congress reached on the Medicare Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) and trade, Scalise concluded by saying that: “It was a very successful year in terms of the things we were able to get done. We blocked some bad things, but we actually got some really good things done for the country and the economy.”

McCarthy agreed. “There are a couple things that

Steve talked about that were big and we

“It’s important for us to be bold.”McCarthy & Scalise Discuss 2015

and Goals for 2016should actually celebrate,” the Majority Leader stated. “One thing this majority has not learned how to do is celebrate. Seventeen times they tried to solve SGR, and they had all three bodies at the time -- the Senate, the House, and the Presidency. On the highway bill, 35 times they passed a short-term extension. We passed a five-year plan. With regard to what we passed on tax extenders… that sets the stage for overall tax reform.”

Looking ahead to the coming year, McCarthy struck an ambitious but realistic tone.

“The goal is to come out and frame an agenda,” he declared. “We want to be very bold. We want to have something that we like. I don’t know what’s going to happen in the presidential race -- nobody can predict that. But we want to make sure we have something that we can run on. I think that

will help the presidential nominee.” The Majority Leader also discussed

the uncertain political and economic climate in America, and the “positive disruption” that is now taking place.

“You see the climate in everything you do,” he observed. “I call it positive disruption. Positive disruption is happening all across this country. We are actually in our fourth Industrial Revolution, and it’s happening much faster than any revolution we’ve had before. How old is Uber? Yet it has transformed something that has been around forever -- the taxi industry, which is like a big bureaucracy. Think about all the disruption that’s happening politically and economically. We need to start having it inside government, as well.” RF

RIPON FORUM February 2016 27Paid for by AARP

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AARP thanks the U.S. Senate for unanimously passing the bipartisan Recognize, Assist, Include, Support, and Engage (RAISE) Family Caregivers Act, which would require the development of a national strategy to support family caregivers. We also thank bill sponsors Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Rep. Gregg Harper (R-MS) and Rep. Kathy Castor (D-FL) for their leadership and support of family caregivers.

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Name: Elise M. StefanikOccupation: Proud Representative of New York’s 21st District in the House of RepresentativesFirst job & lesson learned from it: Growing up in my family’s small business, Premium Plywood Products, the first job I can remember doing is helping my Mom and Dad with filing at the office, as well as answering phones (no more than two rings was the rule!). On the day after Thanksgiving each year, I would help organize the coupon mailing for the annual holiday discount to our hundreds of loyal customers. In high school, I also worked part time during the school year and summers in retail at Old Navy and became lead register during the holiday season and head of the Sunday weekly cleaning crew with the title of “Captain Clean.” These early jobs helped me understand that “no job is too small,” which I think every business owner and entrepreneur understands. I work to instill this value in my Congressional office. Book(s) you’re recommending to friends: Instilled by my Mom and teachers growing up, my love of reading has been an important part of my life. I frequently post what I’m reading on Instagram (@EliseStefanik) and have loyal followers who seem to look forward to my recommendations. And I love their feedback. In 2015, one of the highlights of my reading list was Champlain’s Dreams: The European Founding of North America by David Hackett Fisher. It is an incredibly vivid history of Champlain’s discovery and commitment to the settlement of North America -- much of it set in my district NY-21! Currently I am working through Elena Ferrante’s Neopolitan Novels (I just finished Book 3!) which have captured the literary world by storm. They are excellent. Top issue(s) in America that no one is talking about: Rural broadband. In my district, one of the main concerns is access to rural broadband. In order to have access to compete in the 21st century economy, you have to be connected. Rural broadband should be viewed as part of our nation’s fundamental infrastructure. Challenge facing your District that you’re working hard to address: I continue to focus on economic growth and job creation in my district. We have growing sectors such as tourism, clean tech start-ups, agriculture, trade with Canada, medical device manufacturers and transportation parts manufacturers to name a few -- but we need to promote federal policies such as tax reform and regulatory reform to allow and encourage these sectors to grow. Finish this sentence: “If I could reform any agency or department in the federal government, it would be…” Every federal agency and department needs to be reformed. I am the youngest Member currently serving in Congress and part of my goal is to rethink the way government works by bringing positive, disruptive solutions that provide more transparency, accessibility, efficiency and accountability across the federal government. Let’s start at the VA so our nation’s heroes get the care, benefits and services they have earned.


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