ringed seals and changing snow cover on arctic sea ice brendan p. kelly, oriana r. harding, &...
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Ringed Seals and Changing Snow Cover on Arctic Sea Ice
Brendan P. Kelly, Oriana R. Harding, & Mervi Kunnasranta1
School of Arts and Sciences, University of Alaska Southeast
1 Current address: Department of Biology, University of Joensuu, Finland
Latitude85N 75N 65N 55N 45N 35N 25N 15N 5N 5S 15S 25S 35S 45S 55S 65S 75S 85S
Bre
edin
g sp
ecie
s
0
2
4
6
8
10
Col 7 Col 8 SealsSea lions/walruses
0° 90°S0°0°90°N
Bre
edin
g sp
eci e
s
0
2
4
6
8
10
Latitude
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Sea ice extent(National Snow & Ice Data Center)
Sept 2003
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/n_extn.html Kelly et al. 2003
Median
Sept 1988 - 2000
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Mansfield (1962)
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Mansfield (1962)
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Mansfield (1962)
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Mansfield (1962)
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Mansfield (1962)
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
24-Apr 4-May 14-May 24-May 3-Jun 13-Jun
Cu
mu
lati
ve P
rop
ort
ion
1999
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
24-Apr 4-May 14-May 24-May 3-Jun 13-Jun
Cu
mu
lati
ve P
rop
ort
ion
2000
1999
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
24-Apr 4-May 14-May 24-May 3-Jun 13-Jun
Cu
mu
lati
ve P
rop
ort
ion
2001
2000
1999
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
24-Apr 4-May 14-May 24-May 3-Jun 13-Jun
Cu
mu
lati
ve P
rop
ort
ion
2001
2002 2000
1999
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
24-Apr 4-May 14-May 24-May 3-Jun 13-Jun
Cu
mu
lati
ve P
rop
ort
ion
2003 2001
2002 2000
1999
Abandonment of subnivean lairs by ringed sealsKelly et al. 2003
4/10 4/15 4/20 4/25 4/30 5/5 5/10 5/15 5/20 5/25 5/30 6/4 6/9 6/14
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
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Snow melt =
8 days later
Premature lair abandonment =
Increased juvenile mortality due to:
Exposure to freeze-thaw conditions
Predation by carnivores & birds
Photo by S. Amstrup
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Adaptive responses?Rate of climate change(ecological vs. evolutionary time scale)
Heritability of pupping dates(prop. of phenotypic variance explained by parental phenotype)
Genetic variability within populations(population size, gene flow, genetic drift, natural selection)
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freq
uen
cy
Pupping date
JunFeb Mar Apr May
Snow melt
Directional selection
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freq
uen
cy
Pupping date
JunFeb Mar Apr May
Sufficient snow depths?
Snow melt
Stabilizing selection
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Numerous, locally adapted demes?
-8
-4
0
4
8
4-Sep-02 18-Nov-02 1-Feb-03 17-Apr-03 1-Jul-03 14-Sep-03
Ice cover = 1/10(11 Oct)
Ice cover = 10/10(24 Oct)
Backscatter (Vertical polarization)
dB
Snow melting & refreezing
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`
-8
-4
0
4
8
28-Apr 13-May 28-May 12-Jun0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
d
BN
um
ber o
f Seals
Backscatter Visible Seals
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FUNDING: Coastal Marine Institute, University of Alaska National Science Foundation
BP Exploration (Alaska)
FIELD ASSISTANCE: J. Bengtson, B. Bishop, K. Blejwas, P. Boveng, N. Conway, M. Cronin, S. Crowley, R. Daniel, C. Dorman, J. Dutton, L. Dzinich, K. Faloon, R. Flynn, S. Foster, K. Hildebrand, E. Hood, Z. Hoyt, R. Ingram, A. Kamarainen, C. Kelly, K.M. Kelly, K.T. Kelly, D. McDonald, J. Moran, J. Nielsen, D. O’Leary, L. Quakenbush, M. Simpkins, P. Singer, A. Steffert, W. Streever, D. Swenton, C. Talus, B. Taras, S. Thalmann, J. Vollenweider, D. Wartzok, J. Womble
Jamberry
BACKSCATTER DATA: S. Nghiem
SEAL HOLES:
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