Richard Lycan Population Research Center Portland State University, Oregon Oregon Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting February 2007 Portland Connections.

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  • Portland Connections

    Richard LycanPopulation Research CenterPortland State University, Oregon

    Oregon Academy of Sciences Annual Meeting February 2007Portlands Migration Linkages from 1955-2000

  • Focus on Portland Metro AreaFramework for studying any metro area

    Portland mainly based on current seven county metro area definition

    Data for earlier periods based on older 4 county area

    Some historical data presented for state

  • Overview of presentationMeasuring migration

    Migration as a change agent

    Geographic linkages in 2000

    Linkages since 1955-60

    Who are the movers

  • Sources of migration flow data

    Administrative records, e.g. IRS dataRegister data, e.g. SwedenCensus data used in this paperQuestion on long form questionnaire, 15% samplePre 1980 data mainly from print publications1990, 2000, 2005 from digital filesCounty to county flowsPublic use microsample or PUMSNot as accessible as other census data

  • The census questionThe relevant census question asked where each person in the household lived five years ago.

    The county to county flow tables provide tabulations at the county level of previous residence versus other person, housing unit, and household characteristics.

    The public use microsample is more flexible, but based on smaller sample and uses counties and county groupings known as PUMAs.

  • Migration as a change agentThe total population of an area can only change through:

    net migration (in-out migration) and natural increase (births-deaths).

    For Oregon net migration generally is a more important determinant of population change than is natural increase.

    Changes the composition of Oregons population are due in large part to the differences in the in and out migration streams

  • The important role of migration in Oregons population changeThe upper graph shows the steady trend in the number of deaths and the fluctuating trend of births.

    The lower graph shows the relative importance of net migration (in-out migrants) compared to natural increase (births-deaths).

  • Gross migration as a function of regions population and distance from PortlandGross migration (the total movers) between two places is largely related to distance and the size of the places.

    Our focus in this paper is the differences in the size of the migration streams to and from Portland, which vary due to complex economic and social forces.

  • Coverage of study and presentationMigration streams to and from the Portland Metropolitan Area are presented for five year time periods from 1955-60 to 1995-2000, except for the 1975-80 time period.

    Migration streams for many of the characteristics of the movers also were computed and mapped. Selected results are shown here for Hispanic status and personal income.

  • How to read the mapThink of the width of the flow-line as the diameter of a pipe

    Far away regions are groups of states, nearby parts of states

    The pink lines represent Portland gains, the blue represent losses

    The arrowheads also show direction of net flow

  • Salient patterns 1995-2000The net inflow of 29,000 persons from California the largest.

    The next largest flow, collectively, is the inflow from the east.

    There is a net outflow to Las Vegas and Phoenix and collectively to the Mtn. South

    There is a net outflow from Portland to the remainder of Oregon

  • Salient patterns 1985-1990Portland gained in-migrants from just about everywhere except Seattle.

    The gains from the remainder of Oregon were large.

    There were gains from Phoenix, Las Vegas and the Mtn. South.

  • Data not presented for 1975-80

  • Salient patterns 1965-1970The patterns of gains were similar to the 1985-1990 with large gains from California and the East

    There were gains from the Mtn. North but almost none from the Mtn. South.

    There were small losses to Seattle.

  • Salient patterns 1955-1960Portland loses population to all regions of California, the Mtn. South region, and to Seattle

    There are gains from the remainder of Oregon

    The Swedes and Norwegians from Minnesota and Wisconsin just keep coming.

  • The composition of the migrant streamsWineberg Do all trails lead to Oregon, an analysis of the 1985-90 migration data

    ImmutablesAge, race

    Changeable characteristicsIncome, education, poverty status

    A few examples are shown, based on 1995-2000 county to county migration tables

  • Are movers to Phoenix and Las Vegas mainly retirees?The largest number of movers between these two metro areas and Portland appear to be working age families and individuals

    The migration from Portland to Las Vegas shows a large number of pre-retirement aged persons.

    The migration from Portland to Phoenix shows a large number of retirement aged persons.

  • Where do Hispanics come from?8,420 come from California, especially from Los Angeles. An additional 21,600 come from abroad, mainly from Mexico

    A modest number come from Washington and Oregon outside PDX.

    There is net out-migration from Portland to the Southeast Region

  • Income of movers to and from PDXMovers from PDX to San Jose to have considerably higher incomes than for San Jose to PDX movers.

    The opposite is true for Spokane where Portland gains in higher income movers.

    The San Jose PDX movers have very high incomes in both directions, half again as high as those between PDX and Spokane.

  • ConclusionsHave tools available to easily extract migration stream data from the 1990 and 2000 census

    Plan to expand paper into a monograph

    Understanding the meaning and significance of the data is more difficult than extracting the data.

    I welcome suggestions on variables of interest.

  • County to County Migration Tables for the 1990 Census 1. RACE(5) BY HISPANIC ORIGIN(2) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(18) 2. RACE(5) BY SEX(2) BY PLACE OF BIRTH AND CITIZENSHIP(68) 3. HISPANIC ORIGIN(3) BY SEX(2) BY PLACE OF BIRTH AND CITIZENSHIP(68) 4. RACE(5) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(12) BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE(4) BY TENURE(2) 5. HISPANIC ORIGIN(3) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(12) BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE(4) BY TENURE(2) 6. RACE(5) BY AGE(12) BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE(4) BY POVERTY STATUS(3) 7. HISPANIC ORIGIN(3) BY AGE(12) BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE(4) BY POVERTY STATUS(3) 8. RACE(5) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(9) BY INCOME IN 1989(11) 9. HISPANIC ORIGIN(3) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(9) BY INCOME IN 1989(11) 10. RACE(5) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(12) BY POVERTY STATUS(3) BY TENURE(2) 11. HISPANIC ORIGIN(3) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(12) BY POVERTY STATUS(3) BY TENURE(2) 12. RACE(5) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(9) BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT(7) 13. HISPANIC ORIGIN(3) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(9) BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT(7) 14. RACE(5) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(8) BY EMPLOYMENT STATUS(4) BY COLLEGE ENROLLMENT(2) 15. HISPANIC ORIGIN(3) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(8) BY EMPLOYMENT STATUS(4) BY COLLEGE ENROLLMENT(2) 16. RACE(5) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(8) BY EMPLOYMENT STATUS(4) BY POVERTY STATUS(3) 17. HISPANIC ORIGIN(3) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(8) BY EMPLOYMENT STATUS(4) BY POVERTY STATUS(3) 18. SEX(2) BY AGE(8) BY OCCUPATION(13) BY POVERTY STATUS(3) 19. SEX(2) BY AGE(8) BY INDUSTRY(17) BY POVERTY STATUS(3) 20. RACE(5) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(12) BY TENURE(6) 21. HISPANIC ORIGIN(3) BY SEX(2) BY AGE(12) BY TENURE(6)

  • Selected ReferencesCortright, Joseph, Impresa Inc., The Economic Importance of Being Different: Regional Variations in Tastes, Increasing Returns and the Dynamics of development, Economic Development Quarterly, Vol. 16 No. 1, February 2003, pp. 3-16.

    Cortright, Joseph, Impressa Inc., The Young and the Restless, How Portland Competes for Talent, undertaken by Impressa Inc. for the Portland Development Commission, Westside Economic Alliance, City of Beaverton, City of Hillsboro, City of Tualatin, and Nike, 2007. See the CEOs for Cities website .

    Southeast Michigan Council of Governments, Migration and its Impact on Southeast Michigan, 1990-2003, Detroit, Michigan, November 2004, .

    Howard Wineberg, Do All Trails Lead to Oregon? An Analysis of the Characteristics of People Moving to and from Oregon, 1985-1990, Population Research Center, Portland State University, 1995.

  • Contact informationRichard LycanPopulation Research CenterPortland State UniversityPortland, Oregon 97207-0751lycand@pdx.edu

    Copy of paper and additional maps available on CD

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