review of the situation on the eu sheep and goat meat market
DESCRIPTION
Review of the situation on the EU SHEEP and GOAT Meat Market. 17 June 2010. Heavy Lamb: >13 kg cwt, average of 10 Member States Light Lamb:TRANSCRIPT
17 June 2010
Review of the situation on the EU SHEEP and GOAT Meat Market
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 2
Heavy Lamb: >13 kg cwt, average of 10 Member States Light Lamb: <13 kg cwt, average of 6 Member States
Development of the Community average market price for Heavy and Light Lamb carcases
200
300
400
500
600
700
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
€u
ro / 100k
g
Light lamb
Heavy Lamb
Heavy lamb excl. RO
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 3
Annual Light Lamb prices in the EU-272004 - 2009
350
450
550
650
750
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
€uro
/ 100
kg
maximum
EU Light lambs
minimum
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 4
Annual Heavy Lamb prices in the EU-272004 - 2009
350
400
450
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
€uro
/ 100
kg
EU price excluding Romania
EU price including Romania
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 5
Annual Heavy Lamb prices in the EU-272004 - 2009
150
250
350
450
550
650
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
€uro
/ 100
kg
FR
UK
IE
RO
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 6
Development of the EU Sheep flock by MS2006 - 2009 in 1000 heads
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SE UK
CZ, DK, EE, LV & SF no data for Dec 2009
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 7
Development of the EU Goat flock by MS2006 - 2009 in 1000 heads
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SE UK
CZ, DK, EE, IE LV, SF, SE & UK no data for Dec
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 8
Sheep and Goat Meat Supply
Sheep and Goat slaughterings in the EU2003 = EU 15 2004 = EU 25 2007 = EU 27
1 0
46
94
3
96
4
94
6
98
5
98
5
97
1
1 0
21
94
9
89
2
87
2
77
74 74 6975 73 68
72
7875 75
266
274
275
289
268
265
270 241
239
261
270
0
250
500
750
1 000
1 250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
in 1
000 T
on
nes
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Sh
eep
Carc
ase w
eig
ht
in K
G
Sheep Goat Imp - Exp (Pw) Carc W. Heavy Carc W. Light
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 9
Change in sheep production (GIP)-forecasted (15MSs) & communicated slaughter
2009 compared to 2008"Effects of Regulation 1165/2008"
-100.0%
-80.0%
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
be bg cz dk de ee ie gr es fr it cy lv lt lu hu mt nl at pl pt ro si sk fi se uk EU
Communicated slaughter data
GIP forecast
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 10
Sheep slaughter in the EU 25/27monthly
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
! 04 ! 05 ! 06 ! 07 ! 08 ! 09 ! 10
nu
mb
er
in 1
00
0 h
ea
ds
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 11
Sheep slaughter in Romania2007 & 2008 total slaughter
2009 & 2010 oficial slaughter only
monthly
0
1 000
2 000
! 04 ! 05 ! 06 ! 07 ! 08 ! 09 ! 10
numb
er in
1000
head
s
2009 & 2010: -98% (non officialslaughter)
Sheep slaughter in Spainmonthly (no change in series)
0
1 000
2 000
! 04 ! 05 ! 06 ! 07 ! 08 ! 09 ! 10
numb
er in
1000
head
s
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 12
EU imports of sheep & goat and live animals (2):Trade figures (COMEXT)
IMPORTS of Sheet & Goat into EU (Tonnes cwe)
97 190106 836
97 784
9 1087 261
5 410
113 304
122 772110 797
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
Jan-Apr 08 Jan-Apr 09 Jan-Apr 10
Tonn
es c
we
New Zealand Australia Argentina
Uruguay Chile Other destinations
IMPORTS of Sheep & Goat into EU (1000 EUR)
341 470 365 860 373 171
30 47125 664 20 444
421 653396 621
420 141
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
Jan-Apr 08 Jan-Apr 09 Jan-Apr 10
1,00
0 E
UR
New Zealand Australia ArgentinaUruguay Chile Other destinations
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 13
Imports of Sheep & Goat products
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
50 000
|Jan06
2006 |Jan07
2007 |Jan08
2008 |Jan09
2009 |Jan10
in T
on
ne
s c
we
FRESH FROZEN OTHERS
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 14
1 Argentina 09.2011 23 000 7 942 23 000 5 590 1 Argentina 09.2011 23 000 5665 23 000 7 3821 Australia 09.2012 18 786 18 531 18 786 18 083 Australia 09.2012 18 786 18627 18 848 18 3611 New Zealand 09.2013 227 854 225 856 227 854 225 933 New Zealand 09.2013 227 854 225987 227 854 223 9071 Uruguay 09.2014 5 800 5 763 5 800 5 761 Uruguay 09.2014 5 800 5 658 5 800 5 6571 Chile 09.1922 5 600 4 614 5 800 4 499 Chile 09.1922 6 000 3 617 6 200 5 3242 Norway 09.0781 300 5 300 5 Norway 09.0781 300 2 300 03 Greenland 09.0693 100 1 100 0 Greenland 09.0693 100 0 100 03 Faeroes 09.0690 20 0 20 0 Faeroes 09.0690 20 0 20 03 Turkey 09.0227 200 0 200 0 Turkey 09.0227 200 0 200 05 Others 09.2015 200 62 200 120 Others 09.2015 200 8 200 01 Iceland 09.0790 1 350 695 1 725 706 2 Iceland 09.0790 1 850 1 175 1 850 1 6835 Others 09.2019 92 2 92 3 3 Erga Omnes 09.2019 92 1 92 74 ACP states 09.1622 100 0 100 04 09.1626 500 0 500 0
HS Product Codes For 20101 0204 xxxx See Regulation 1234/20092 0204 xxxx, 0210 99 21/ 29/ 603 0104 1030/ 1080/ 2090
283 302 263 471 283 877 260 700 284 202 260 789 284 451 262 352
93.0% 91.8% 91.8% 92.2%
UTILISATION OF SHEEPMEAT AND GOATMEAT TARIFF QUOTAS 2004-2009in tonnes of carcasse weight equivalent
ACTUAL IMPORT
ACTUAL IMPORT
ACTUAL IMPORT
ACTUAL IMPORT
UseTOTAL
QUOTA QUOTACOUNTRY GROUP No
ORIGINORDER
NUMBER
2008 2009
PREVIOUS COUNTRY GROUP No
ORIGINORDER
NUMBERQUOTA QUOTA
2006 2007
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 15
tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %
New Zealand 241 346 85.2% 243 186 85.2% 242 405 85.2% 203 648 85.2% 97 784 88.3%
Australia 19 708 7.9% 21 398 7.9% 22 398 7.9% 13 765 7.9% 5 410 4.9%
Argentina 8 104 2.0% 5 525 2.0% 5 639 2.0% 7 158 2.0% 2 051 1.9%
Chile 4 792 1.3% 4 618 1.3% 3 844 1.3% 5 220 1.3% 1 822 1.6%
Uruguay 6 033 2.1% 6 054 2.1% 5 912 2.1% 3 782 2.1% 1 591 1.4%
For.JRep.Mac 2 857 0.8% 2 605 0.8% 2 354 0.8% 2 277 0.8% 1 416 1.3%
Iceland 696 0.5% 730 0.5% 1 434 0.5% 556 0.5% 370 0.3%
Falkland Is. 498 0.2% 502 0.2% 480 0.2% 479 0.2% 293 0.3%EXTRA EU15-25-27 302 577 284 927 284 675 236 986 110 797
% change - 5.8% - 0.1% - 16.8% - 9.8%
2006 2007 2008 Jan-Apr 102009
EU imports of sheep & goat and live animals (1):Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)
OriginsOrigins
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 16
tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %
Sw itzerland 1 522 13.7% 1 226 13.7% 1 355 13.7% 1 032 13.7% 856 17.3%
Lebanon 1 314 9.8% 1 214 9.8% 974 9.8% 1 179 9.8% 537 10.9%
Croatia 39 20.9% 2 032 20.9% 2 071 20.9% 1 683 20.9% 537 10.9%
Angola 99 5.5% 305 5.5% 550 5.5% 343 5.5% 205 4.1%
Hong Kong 260 2.8% 975 2.8% 278 2.8% 397 2.8% 178 3.6%
Ivory coast 226 2.9% 237 2.9% 292 2.9% 35 2.9% 28 0.6%EXTRA EU15-25-27 6 097 10 824 10 002 9 637 4 948
% change + 78% - 8% - 4% + 26.7%
2006 2007 2008 Jan-Apr 102009
EU exports of sheep & goat and live animals (1):Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)
DestinationsDestinations
Nov 2008 figures not available for Latvia
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 17
EU exports of sheep & goat and live animals (2):Trade figures (COMEXT)
EU EXPORTS of Sheep & Goat (Tonnes cwe)
526 537
616 588 856272 279
537
1 105
2 016
2 6352 875
3 905
4 948
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
Jan-Apr 08 Jan-Apr 09 Jan-Apr 10
Tonn
es c
w
Croatia Switzerland LebanonAngola Hong Kong Other destinations
EU EXPORTS of Sheep & Goat (1000 EUR)
2 468 3 317
4 1423 863
5 817528
571
9832 473 3 681
5 154
10 79411 665
16 316
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
Jan-Apr 08 Jan-Apr 09 Jan-Apr 10
1,00
0 E
UR
Croatia Switzerland Lebanon
Angola Hong Kong Other destinations
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 18
Exports of Sheep & Goat products
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
|Jan06
2006 |Jan07
2007 |Jan08
2008 |Jan09
2009 |Jan10
in T
on
ne
s c
we
FRESH FROZEN LIVE OTHERS
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 19
Exchange rate New Zealand $ - Euro
1.6
1.85
2.1
2.35
I 2000 I 2001 I 2002 I 2003 I 2004 I 2005 I 2006 I 2007 I 2008 I 2009 I 2010 I
1 Eu
ro =
.....
…Nw
. Zea
land
$
source:http://europa.eu.int/comm/budget/inforeuro/fr/index.htm
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 20
Forecast Balance Sheet of Sheep and Goat Meat, EU-27
Source: DG AGRI
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Gross Indigenous Production 1 127 1 097 1 025 1 023 1 014 1 011 1 006 1 000 996 992
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Live Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Live Exports 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Net Production 1 123 1 094 1 022 1 021 1 011 1 009 1 003 998 993 989
Import 274 272 272 270 271 272 273 275 276 276Exports 4 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Consumption 1 393 1 359 1 286 1 283 1 274 1 273 1 268 1 264 1 261 1 257
Per Capita Consumption 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5of which EU15 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9of which EU12 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 21
Sheep and goat: continued decline in production
EU production, consumption and trade (mio t c.w.e.)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Pro
du
cti
on
, C
on
su
mp
tio
n
0.0
0.5
1.0
Tra
de
Production
Consumption
Imports
EU-15 EU-27EU-12
Exports
EU-25
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 22
Results of the forecast group of 7. June 2010
Expected slaughter
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
To
nn
2008 41 547 58 700 117 850 245 012 59 700 3 218 15 400 12 240 325 000
2009 38 417 55 000 108 534 243 271 59 000 3 250 15 100 10 411 302 000
2010 37 458 50 300 106 373 233 297 58 600 3 300 15 200 9 450 285 000
2011 38 380 49 100 105 373 232 130 58 100 3 300 15 300 9 100 290 000
DE IE FR ES* IT HU NL PT UK
EU " 9 "09/08 = -5,0%10/09 = -4,3%11/10 = +0,2%
* Spain was not represented in the forecast group. Estimations DG AGRI
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 23
Results of the forecast group of 7. June 2010
Forecast of Heavy Lamb prices in the EUexcluding Romania
150
250
350
450
550
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
€uro
/ 100
kg
BE
DE
IE
ES
FR
NL
AT
PL
RO
SE
UK
EU_H
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 24
Results of the forecast group of 7. June 2010
Forecast of Light Lamb prices in the EU
350
450
550
650
750
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
€uro
/ 100
kg
GR
ES
IT
CY
HU
PT
SI
SK
EU_L
DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 June 2010 25