rethinking food production within planetary boundaries - gianfranco bologna

Milano, 29 giugno 2010

Rethinking Food Production Within Planetary Boundaries

Gianfranco BolognaScientific Director and HeadSustainability and Education WWF Italy

Barilla Center for Food & Nutrition


World population is increasing by 79 million annually

Some 3 billion people desire to move up the food chain and eat more grain-intensive livestock products

Food vs. Fuel: Expanding biofuel production means that cars and people compete for crops

Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

GROWING DEMANDGROWING DEMAND


Between 1950 and 2000, world water use tripled

Some 70% of water use is for irrigation

Overextraction is leading to disappearing lakes and rivers failing to reach the sea

Aquifer depletion is causing water tables to fall and wells to go dry

175 million Indians, 130 million Chinese are fed with grain produced by overpumping

Since the overpumping of aquifers is occurring in many countries more or less simultaneously, the depletion of aquifers and the resulting harvest cutbacks could come at roughly the same time, creating potentially unmanageable food scarcity.

Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

WATER SHORTAGESWATER SHORTAGES


1. Earth System and sustainability science (Understanding Earth System processes; ICSU, IGBP, ESSP, IPCC, MEA, evolution of sustainability science…)

2. Scale of human action in relation to the capacity of the planet to sustain it (Kenneth Boulding Spaceship Earth, Herman Daly, Club of Rome, Ecological Economics reserach agenda, Ecological Footprint...)

3. Shocks and Abrupt change in Social-Ecological systems from local to global scales (Resilience, GAIA, tipping elements, guardrails...)

Planetary Boundaries

concept

PB CONCEPT RESTS ON THREE BRANCHES OF SCIENTIFIC INQUIRYPB CONCEPT RESTS ON THREE BRANCHES OF SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY


Climate Change< 350 ppm CO2 <

1W m2

(350 – 500 ppm CO2 ;

1-1.5 W m2)

Ozone depletion< 5 % of Pre-Industrial

290 DU(5 - 10%)

Global Freshwater Use

<4000 km3/yr(4000 – 6000

km3/yr)

Rate of Biodiversity Loss

< 10 E/MSY(< 10 - < 1000

E/MSY)

Biogeochemical loading: Global N & P Cycles Limit industrial fixation of N2 to 35 Tg N yr-1(25

% of natural fixation)

(25%-35%)P < 10× natural

weathering inflow to Oceans

(10× – 100×)

Atmospheric Aerosol Loading

To be determined

Land System Change≤15 % of

land under crops

(15-20%)

Chemical Pollution Plastics, Endocrine

Desruptors, Nuclear Waste Emitted globally

To be determined

Planetary Boundari

es