retail trends 2013

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RETAIL TRENDS FOR 2013 AND BEYOND RETAILOMANIA

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2013 is just around the corner. MORM/Retailomania has compiled a collection of trends shaping the years to come.

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Page 1: Retail Trends 2013

RETAIL TRENDS FOR 2013 AND BEYOND

RETAILOMANIA

Page 2: Retail Trends 2013

GLOBALIZATION HAS MADE THE WORLD

INTERCONNECTED

RETAILOMANIA

”Prediction  is  very  difficult,  especially  about  the  future”  

Niels  Bohr  

Page 3: Retail Trends 2013

GLOBALIZATION HAS MADE THE WORLD

INTERCONNECTED

RETAILOMANIA

The  competetive  environment  of  retail,  is  similar  to  a  flock  of  birds.    

Every  single  bird  is  affected  by  the  flock,  but  at  the  same  time  the  flock  is  affected  by  the  

movement  of  every  single  bird.    

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GLOBALIZATION HAS MADE THE WORLD

INTERCONNECTED

RETAILOMANIA

SOME  BIRDS  ARE  GAME  CHANGERS.    

IN  A  WORLD  WERE  EVERYBODY  THOUGHT  THAT  A  SWANS  WERE  WHITE,  IT  WAS  REVOLUTIONARY  TO  FIND  OUT  THAT  SOME  WERE  NOT.    

The  term  black  swan  has  since  Nassim  Nicholas  Taleb  used  this  analogy  in  his  book  ”The  Black  Swan”  been  a  term  to  desbribe  events  that  seem  impossible  to  predict,  but  when  it  enters  the  scene  chages  all  the  rules.  Retrospectively  we  have  a  tendency  to  find  simplistic  explanations  for  theese.      

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RETAILOMANIA

WE  TEND  TO  LOOK  OUT  FOR  THINGS  AND  SIGNS  THAT  FITS  WHAT  WE  ALREADY  KNOW  AND  THEREBY  OVERLOOK  WHAT  ACTUALLY  SHAPES  THE  FUTURE.    

WHAT  IS  A  SURPRISE  FOR  THE  TURKEY  IS  NOT  A  SURPRISE  FOR  THE  BUTCHER.    

THE  BIG  OOOPS!!!  HAS  BEEN  A  PART  OF  THE  AGENDA  FROM  THE  START.  THE  TURKEY  JUST  DID  NOT  SEE  IT  COMING.    

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GLOBALIZATION HAS MADE THE WORLD

INTERCONNECTED

RETAILOMANIA

SO  LETS  GET  SOME  …  

THE  LESSON  FROM  THE  TURKEY  IS  THAT  PREDICTION  IS  ABOUT  PERSPECTIVE.    

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1.  UNREST  IS  HERE  TO  STAY  

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THE  CAUSES  OF  THE  FINANCIAL  CRISIS,  EURO  CRISIS  AND  THE  TENSIONS  IN  THE  MIDDLE  EAST  HAS  NOT  BEEN  SOLVED  AND  ARE  NOT  LIKELY  TO  BE  SOLVED  IN  THE  NEAR  FUTURE.  

ON  THE  CONTRARY  -­‐  WHAT  WE  USES  TO  CALL  CRISIS  JUST  MIGHT  

THE  NEW  NORMAL  

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GLOBALIZATION HAS MADE THE WORLD

INTERCONNECTED

RETAILOMANIA

FINANCIAL  STIMULUS  WILL  NOT  WORK  IF  THE  CAUSES  ARE  NOT  DEALT  WITH…  

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GLOBALIZATION HAS MADE THE WORLD

INTERCONNECTED

RETAILOMANIA

…AND  ON  A  GLOBAL  SCALE,  WHAT  WE  SEE  AS  SINGLE  EVENTS:  THE  CHINA/TAIWAN/JAPANESE  CLASH  OVER  A  FEW  TINY  ISLANDS,  RUSSIAN  MILITARY  BUILDUP  IN  THE  ARCTIC  AND  THE  

IRANIAN/MIDDLE  EAST  TENSION  ARE  ALL  ABOUT  CONTROL  OVER  OIL    AND  ENDING  RESOURCES.  THESE  EVENTS  WILL  CONTUNUE  TO  ARISE  AND  THREATEN  WORLD  PEACE  IN  THE  FORESEABLE  

FUTURE.  

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RETAILOMANIA

SURVIVAL  IS  NOT  ABOUT  SURVIVING  THE  NEXT  SEASON.    

YOU  MOST  LIKELY  NEED  A  PLAN  FOR  SURVIVAL  FOR  THE  NEXT  DECADE.  

THE  ABILITY  TO  ADAPT  PRODUCTS,  COSTS,  BUSINESS  MODELS  AND  JUST  ABOUT  EVERYTHING  ELSE  IS  CRUISAL  TO  SURVIVAL  IN  A  GLOBAL  MARKETPLACE  

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2.  GLOBAL  VS  LOCAL  VS  GLOCAL  

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RETAILOMANIA

IN  A  WORLD  OF  UNSAFETY  PEOPLE  WILL  BE  IN  THE  MARKET  

FOR  SAFETY  

THIS  MEANS  THAT  LOCAL  JUST  MIGHT  BE  THE  NEW  GLOBAL  

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RETAILOMANIA

THE  LAST  25  YEARS  IN  BRIEF  :    

THE  BERLIN  WALL  FELL,  CHINA  OPENED  UP,  THE  INTERNET  MADE  PEOPLE  COME  TOGETHER  AND  INTERACT  OVER  CONTINENTS  IN  A  WAY  THAT  WE  HAVE  NEVER  

SEEN  

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RETAILOMANIA

DURING  THE  90s  RETAIL  WENT  SERIOUSLY  GLOBAL    

WAL-­‐MART,  ,  TESCO,  CARREFOUR,  H&M,  ZARA,  IKEA,    HOME  DEPOT  ET  AL  FOUND  NEW  MARKET  ABROAD.    

ANYTHING  THAT  WAS  NOT  GLOBAL  WAS  THREATENED  TO  BE  SWALLOWED  BY  THE  GREAT  RETAIL  PREDATORS  

EX-­‐COMMUNIST  COUNTRIES  WANTED  ANYTHING  WITH  A  

WESTERN  BRAND  ON  IT  AS  A  SIGN  OF  FREEDOM      

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RETAILOMANIA

THIS  ERA  CAME  TO  AN  END  WITH  THE  WAR  ON  TERROR  WERE  THE  BUSH  ADMINISTRATION,  IN  ITS  SEARCH  FOR  THE  TERRORIST  RESPONSIBLE  FOR  

THIS,  ALSO  UPSET  A  WORLD  OF  MUSLIM  COUNTRIES,  AND  BY  THE  METHOD  USED  BLURRED  THE  IMAGE  OF  THE  USA  AS  THE  LIBERATORS  AS  IT  HAS  BEEN  ASSOCIATED  WITH  SINCE  THE  D-­‐DAY  

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RETAILOMANIA

Real  vs  esGmated  world  producGon  of  crude  oil  

Källa: Transport energy futures: long-term oil supply trends and projections, Australian Department of Infrastructure, Transport,

Regional Development and Local Government, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government

OIL  HAS  BEEN  THE  CAUSE  OF  SEVERAL  WARS,  SIMPLY  BECAUSE  IT  IS  THE  BLOOD  SYSTEM  OF  MODERN  TRANSPORTATION.  WHEN  THE  OIL  PRODUCTION  REACHES  ITS  PEAK,  ANY  LOGISTIC  OPERATION  WILL  BE  MORE  EXPENSIVE,  THEREBY  CHANGING  THE  FOUNDATION  OF  MODERN  RETAILING  WITH  GLOBAL  SOURCING  AND  GLOBAL  STORE  NETWORKS.  

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RETAILOMANIA

-­‐  LOCAL  BRANDS  WILL  BE  ABLE  TO  CHALLENGE  GLOBAL  BRANDS  AS  PRICES  FOR  TRANSPORTATION  WILL  RISE.  

-­‐  OLD  TIME  BRAND  CHAMPIONS  OF  THE  WEST  (LIKE  COKE  FOR  EXAMPLE)  ARE  NOT  THE  OBVIOUS  WINNERS  IN  DEVELOPING  COUNTRIES  AND  TIGER  ECONOMIES  OF  AFRICA  AND  ASIA,  AS  THE  IMAGE  OF  THE  USA  HAS  CHANGED  FROM  LIBERATORS  TO  CRUSADERS  IN  CERTAIN  COUNTRIES.  

-­‐  SMALLER  STORES  WILL  CONTINUE  TO  GROW  AS  IT  MEANS  LOWER  INVESTMENTS,  CLOSENESS  TO  MARKET  AND  HIGHER  SALES  PER  SQM  AS  WELL  AS  ENERGY  EFFICIENCY  

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3.  SOCIAL  MEDIA  SOBRIETY  

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GLOBALIZATION HAS MADE THE WORLD

INTERCONNECTED

RETAILOMANIA

The  last  decade  has  senn  

DURING  THE  LAST  DECADE  ,  THERE  HAS  BEEN  A  FANTASTIC  GROWTH  OF  WHAT  WE  CALL  SOCIAL  MEDIA:  DIFFERENT  DIGITAL  SERVICES  FOR  SHARING  VIEWS  AND  INFORMATION,  CONNECTING  AND  SELF  BRANDING.    

THESE  SOCIAL  MEDIA  PLATFORMS  HAVE  MADE  IT  POSSIBLE  TO  CONNECT  WITH  FRIENDS  AND  WITH  BRANDS.  CONSUMERS  ARE  ABLE  TO  TALK  ABOUT,  AND  SHARE  VIEWS  AND  EXPERIENCES  WITH  OTHER  CONSUMERS  WITHOUT  THE  CONTROL  OR  INVOLVEMENT  OF  THE  BRAND  OWNER  BEING  DISCUSSED.  CERTAINLY  A  CHALLENGING  SITUATION  IN  A  WORLD  WERE  THE  LARGEST  BRAND  COULD  PROJECT  ANY  MESSAGE  JUST  BY  BEING  THE  HIGHEST  BIDDER  ON  THE  MEDIA  MARKET.    

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RETAILOMANIA

AS  ALWAYS,  WHEN  NEW  THINGS  POPS  UP,  SOME  PEOPLE  TEND  TO  BELIEVE  THAT  IT  WILL  REPLACE  EVERYTHING  ELSE.  

IT  WON`T  

BUT  IT  WILL  ADD  ANOTHER  LAYER  OF  POSSIBILITIES  FOR  A  DIALOGUE  WITH  CONSUMERS  AND  IF  YOU  DO  WELL,  CONSUMERS  

WILL  HELP  YOU  SPREAD  THE  MESSAGE.  

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RETAILOMANIA

PRE-­‐TAIL   RETAIL   POST-­‐TAIL  

Researching  and  comparing  alternaLves  by  using:  On-­‐line  search    Word  of  mouth  Social  networks  Ads  Apps  

Sharing  experiences  and  conquests  Word  of  mouth  Social  networks  In-­‐store  communicaLon/Signage  

Staff  In  store  search  with  help  of  mobile  devices  

Good  and  bad  experiences  are  being  used  by  other  consumers  to  

facilitate  their  own  decision  process  

GeYng  more  detailed  informaLon  while  in-­‐store:  

TRADITIONAL  RETAIL  

ONLINE  RETAIL  

SERVICE  RETAIL  

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RETAILOMANIA

SOCIAL  MEDIA  IS  A  BAD  EXPRESSION  AS  IT  SUGGESTS  THAT  BY  USING  IT    YOU  ARE  PER  DEFINITION  A  SOCIAL  COMPANY.  BUT  

MEDIA  ARE  NOT  SOCIAL.  PEOPLE  ARE.    

THAT  MEANS  THAT  USING  SOCIAL  MEDIA  IS  NOT  AN  EXCUSE  FOR  NOT  DOING  THE  HOMEWORK  ON  BRANDING  ETC  AS  COMPANIES  

HAVE  BEEN  DOING  THE  LAST  CENTURY.  

IT  IS  NOT  VERY  DIFFERENT  FROM  YESTERDAY.  EXCEPT  FOR  IF  YOU  MESS  THINGS  UP,  EVERYBODY  WILL  KNOW  AND  LAUGH  AT    YOU.  

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RETAILOMANIA

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RETAILOMANIA

SOCIAL  MEDIA  SOBRIETY,  THE  UNDERSTANDING  THAT  THIS  IS  NOT  THE  HOLY  GRAIL  AS  SOCIAL  MEDIA  CONSULTANTS  HAVE  TALKED  ABOUT  

AND  THAT  EVEN  THOSE  COMPANYS  EVENTUALLY  WILL  HAVE  TO  EARN  MONEY  WILL  SET  FOCUS  ON  ROI  FOR  SOCIAL  MEDIA  CAMPAIGNS.  LIKES  

ARE  NOT  THE  SAME  AS  MONEY.  AND  SHARING  IS  NOT  THE  SAME  AS  GETTING  A  NEW  CUSTOMER.    

YOU  CAN  PUT  LIPSTICK  ON  A  PIG,  BUT  IT`S  STILL  A  PIG.  

ROI  IS  CRUICAL.  IT´S  NOT  DIFFERENT  THIS  TIME  EITHER.  ASK    MARK  ZUCKERBERG  –  HE  SHOULD  KNOW  BY  NOW.  

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RETAILOMANIA

4.  EMBRACE  TECHNOLOGY  OR  DIE  

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RETAILOMANIA

THE  EVOLUTION  OF  SMART  PHONES  AND  IPADs  HAVE  LED  TO  NEW  HABITS  SUCH  AS  SECOND  SCREENING,  MEANING  THAT  YOU  USE  A  

SECOND  SCREEN  AT  THE  SAME  TIME  YOU  WATCH  TV  IN  ORDER  TO  GET  MORE  INFORMATION,  INTERACT  WITH  OTHER  VIEWERS  OR  MAKE  

COMMENTS  TO  YOUR  ONLINE  NETWORK.  THIS  IS  NOW  A  MAINSTREAM  PHENOMENON  .  WHAT  IS  INTERESTING  IS  WITH  WHAT  

SPEED  WE  TOTALY  CHANGE  BEHAVIOUR  BASED  ON  NEW  PLATFORMS.    

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MOBILE  DEVICES  HAVE  ALSO  MADE  IT  POSSIBLE  TO  DO  RESEARCH  ON  COMPETITOR  PRICES  WHILE  IN  THE  STORE  BY  SIMPLY  SCANNING  THE  BAR  CODE  AND  WAIT  FOR  THE  RESULTS.  

AND  MADE  IT  POSSIBLE  TO  INTERACT  WITH  ADS,  PRODUCTS  AND  STORES  BY  SCANNING  QR  CODES  FOR  SEVERAL  EFFECTS.  

BUT  THIS  IS  OLD  NEWS.  

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THE  YEARS  TO  COME  WILL  LEAD  TO  AN  EXPLOSION  OF  AUGUMENTED  REALITY  APPS  BY  WHICH  YOU  CAN  GET  INFORMATION  FROM  YOUR  SURROUNDINGS  BY  SIMPLY  POINTING  YOUR  CAMERA  AT  THEM.  BY  USING  THE  PHONES  POSITIONING  FUNCTIONS,  APPS  CAN  DISPLAY  INFORMATION  AND  POSSIBILITIES  TO  INTERACT  IN  WAYS  WE  HAVE  NEVER  BEEN  ABLE  TO  DREAM  ABOUT.  

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hZp://goo.gl/af4kt  

Google  glasses  is  a  research  project  that  puts  computer-­‐processing  power,  a  camera,  a  microphone,  wireless  communications  and  a  tiny  screen  into  a  pair  of  lightweight  eyeglasses.    

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But  the  use  of  augumented  reality  will  hardly  stop  there.  Several  devices  will  be  used  as  technology  get  available:    http://retailomania.blogspot.se/2012/08/augumented-­‐reality-­‐possibilities.html  

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http://retailomania.blogspot.se/2012/05/hologram-lingerie-model-haunts-store.html

Technology  could  also  be  used  in  order  to  create  various  in  store  effects:  

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RETAILOMANIA

5.  CASH  IS  SOOOO  20TH  CENTURY  

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RETAILOMANIA

PayPal  processed  payments  of  78  Billion  USD  2011,  which  is  up  36  %  from  2010.  We  will  most  likely  see  an  explosion  in  mobile  payments  in  years  to  come  as  several  retailers  adapt  in  order  use  the  different  platforms  being  developed  for  mobile  payments.    

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"Cash  has  dug  in  its  heels  for  small-­‐value  transactions,  but  with  the  arrival  of  each  new  tech  offering  (providing)  an  alternative  way  to  pay  for  little  stuff  —  text  your  parking  payment,  Starbucks  mobile  app,  Square,  etc.  —  cash  is  being  further  and  further  marginalized,”    

David  Wolman,  author  of  the  book  The  End  of  Money.  

WE  NOW  SEE  THE  LAST  DAYS  OF  CASH,  A  DECLINE  THAT  STARTED  IN  THE  50s  WITH  THE  GROWTH  OF  CREDIT  CARDS.    

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6.  IN  STORE  EXPERIENCE  IS  MORE  CRUISAL  THAN  EVER  

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CONSUMERS  DECIDE  WHERE  TO  BUY  A  CERTAIN  PRODUCT,  BASED  ON  THE  FOLLOWING  

WHO  

HOW  

WHAT  

WHERE  

WHAT  IS  BEING  OFFERED?   Assortment   Service  offer  

WHO  IS  OFFERING?   Positioning   Brand  personality  

HOW  IS  IT  OFFERED?   Concept   Merchandising   Visuals   Technology  

WERE  IS  IT  OFFERED?   Channels   Locations  

WHO  AND  HOW  SETS  THE  ATMOSPHERE  IN  THE  STORE  

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C2C EBay

Service providers using retail tactics

Retail banking, insurance companies, travel agencies

Online services

Spotify Voddler

Multi- channel

Online retailers

”Social” media retail platforms

Facebook et al

Mobile retail services

Online virtual goods retailing Farmville etc

Third party co-op

Hotels, gyms, spas

Vending machines

Traditional retail

Retailers providing services

Popup- stores

Drive-thru stores

In-store online kiosks

FROM MULTICHANNEL TO HYPERCHANNEL RETAIL DEVELOPMENT 2012-2022 Online retailers are retailers using

only the online world as their field of operations. Online retailing are likely to rise the coming decade as more consumers are online, more consumers feel safe online and the evolution of payment systems will make payments easier.

The C2C-market is likely to rise due to both economical and environmental concerns.

Virtual goods are products or services consumed online and are never an actual asset of the use.

Online retailing on communities and online social media platforms are likely to be more specialized as the platforms mature.

Mobile internet has exploded over the last couple of years due to smart phones and various need-to-have and nice-to-have apps. More retail functionality will be built into apps and both ecommerce and in-store interactivity will be standard features.

Online kiosks inside stores makes it possible to research online and compare functions and features of the assortment.

Popup stores started as guerilla activities but have now matured as a new format when and where temporary installations are necessary. Here Telenor, mobile phone kiosk.

In order to improve the share of wallet ratio from existing customers several retailers are moving into the service industry providing banking, insurance, gardening wedding and even funeral services.

Vending machines are not what they used to be. Here is U´tiques luxury product vending machine, and its modern cousins from other vending operators are selling everything from shoes to vodka from designed machines.

Why should people need to go outside to grab a prescription or pick up a preordered bag of groceries. Drive-thru are a reality in many places and are likely to rise.

Retail opportunities for situational shopping. Shoes and training equipment at the gym, wellbeing at the spa and so on.

Several banks have launched retail store looking concepts in order to appear as a modern service provider. Photo from Danish Jyske Bank

Multichannel retailers includes offline retailers going online, but also those online retailers that chooses to open a physical store. Some use the online world to gather information before going to the store, while others use the physical store as a showroom before ordering online, perhaps via smart phone while still in the store

Outlets

Traditional retailing will continue to develop with focus on smaller concepts as turnover/square meter will become a critical KPI as competitions get harder. Small format also means: - Quicker, easier shopping - Smaller investments (risk) - Coming closer to the customer implies less fuel spending - More possibilities to optimize store location density.

RETAILOMANIA

THE  NUMBER  OF  CHANNELS  ARE  EXPLODING  

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RETAILOMANIA

A  CLEAR  RETAIL  BRAND  PERSONALITY  IS  A  MUST  

Hard discount

No frills chic

The teacher

The coach

The formal

The good old days

Discount

Knowledge

Authencity

The real thing

Price fighters

Low price with class

Educates the customer

Buddy and helper

Authencity and strict norms

Nostalgia

Best of the best

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The  degree  of  interaction  between  customer  and  the  store  will  rise  in  order  to  increase  the  percieved  value  

Service  concept   Self  service   Interactive  concepts  

Customer  as  audience  

Customer  as  a  partner   Customer  as  a  part  

 of  the  concept  High  degree  of  inteaction  

Low  degree  of  inteaction  

The  customer  are  not  interested  or  allowed  to  browse  the  merchanidise  themselves,  but  are  served  by  staff.  

The  most  common  of  concepts  during  the  later  half  of  the  20th  century.  The  customer  choses  what  they  want  to  by  and  goes  to  the  cashier.  The  customer  does  one  part  of  the  job  and  thereby  get  a  better  price.  

The  store  visit  is  an  integral  part  of  the  product  were  the  customer  is  co-­‐creating  or  personalizing  a  product  to  fit  special  requirements.  

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hZp://retailomania.blogspot.se/2012/06/merging-­‐of-­‐online-­‐and-­‐offline.html  

hZp://retailomania.blogspot.se/2011/01/connected-­‐store-­‐intels-­‐vision-­‐of-­‐future.html  

hZp://retailomania.blogspot.se/2012/05/blurring-­‐borders-­‐between-­‐online-­‐and.html  

BLURRING  OF  OFF  LINE  AND  ON  LINE  EXPERIENCE  WILL  INCREASE  OVER  TIME  

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7.  CUSTOMER  DATA  ANALYSIS  NECESSARY  TO  KEEP  TRACK  OF  VISITOR  BEHAVIOR  

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Can  you  aZract  new  visitors?  

Can  you  convert  more  visitors  into  customers.  

Can  you  make  every  customer  buy  more?  

Can  you  make  them  come  more  ocen?  

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MOST  RETAILERS  COUNT  THEIR  VISITORS  IN  ORDER  TO  KEEP  TRACK  OF  STORE  PERFORMANCE  

-­‐ The  number  of  visitors  -­‐ Conversion  rate  

-­‐ Number  of  add-­‐on  sales  -­‐ Average  basket  value  

-­‐ Average  number  of  articles  per  transaction  

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BUT  TECHNOLOGY  ALLOWS  THE  RETAILER  TO  USE  EYE  TRACKING  TECHNOLOGY  AND  AUTOMATIC  IN  STORE  TRAFFIC  TRACKING  IN  ORDER  TO  ANALYSE  CUSTOMER  FLOW,  HOT  SPOTS  AND  COLD  ZONES  OF  THE  STORE,  THEREBY  MAKING  IT  POSSIBLE  TO  MOVE  HIGH  MARGIN  PRODUCTS  TO  ZONES  WITH  MORE  TRAFFIC.  

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AS  COMPETITION  GETS  TOUGHER  IN  STORE  TRAFFIC  ANALYSIS  WILL  BE  CRUICAL  IN  

ORDER  TO  MAINTAIN  A  PROFITABLE  STORE  AT  ALL  TIMES.  

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hZp://retailomania.blogspot.se/2012/05/teotrwawki-­‐retail-­‐survival-­‐tacLcs.html  

STRATEGY  IS  GREAT!!!  

BUT  DON´T  FORGET  THE  EVERYDAY  TACTICS  THAT  MAKES  STRATEGY  HAPPEN  

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AND  FINALLY;  BEING  A  TURKEY  OR  A  BLACK  SWAN  IS  PART  INNOVATION,  PART  CHOICE  AND  PART  EVERYDAY  

HARD  WORK  

BUT  REMEMBER…  

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www.morm.se  Retailomania.blogspot.com  @retailomania  https://www.facebook.com/Retailomania  

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