retail property market | france h1 2016

A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication

RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET

France

H1 2016

French Retail Property Market | 2

ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

After stalling at the end of 2015, household consumption rose by

1% in the first quarter of 2016, the strongest quarterly growth

since 2006. Although attributable to the automobile market,

consumer spending also benefitted from a rebound in purchases

of household goods, which were boosted by the transition to HD

TNT and by spending ahead of the Euro 2016 football

tournament. These factors were less influential in the second

quarter, which is expected to have seen a net slowdown in

consumer spending (+0.2%), due also to a decline in clothing

purchases. The clothing sector was affected by damp springtime

weather and by rapidly changing consumer tastes, as reaffirmed

recently by the difficulties announced by several large French

retailers.

For FY 2016, INSEE forecasts growth in consumer spending

similar to levels seen in 2015. Despite a rebound in energy prices,

consumer prices have remained stable. Household purchasing

power is expected to grow by 1.7 % in 2016 (+1.6% in 2015). The

French have also enjoyed a slight rise in social-security benefits

and salaries, in a context of a gradual recovery in the job market.

Although household confidence slipped slightly in June, French

morale remains strong and in May reached its highest level since

October 2007. The rise in home sales and mortgages hint at

recovery in the residential market. If confirmed, this recovery

could encourage greater spending for household goods. The

furniture sector would benefit the most.

While it is too early to measure the effects of the Brexit on the

French economy, several other factors will slow consumer

spending: deterioration in labor relations, the slowness of job-

market recovery, and above all the latest terrorist attack (Nice on

July 14). The Euro 2016 football tournament may have provided

protection against a decline in international visitor numbers, but

this latest attack and the extension of the state of emergency will

have a significant impact on the summer tourist season just as the

provinces are starting to get over last year’s attacks. The Paris

market has been permanently hurt by a decline in spending by

tourists. Between November 2015 and April 2016, Paris lost two

million overnight stays by foreign visitors.

Economic indicators (%)

2015 2016F

GDP growth 1.2 1.4

Consumer prices 0.1 0.2

Unemployment rate¹ 10.3 10.1

Household consumption 1.5 1.6

Source: Banque de France, INSEE / F: forecast. ¹All of France, % of active population.

RETAIL PROPERTY MARKETFrance | H1 2016

THE LETTINGS MARKET

General trends

Even though household consumption remains positive, retailer

cautiousness—the result of numerous uncertainties—continues to

weigh on the French retail property market. Causes do not always

have consistent effects. Retailer performances and growth rates

sometimes vary significantly in relation to retail formats, business

sectors, and store locations. Markets that are highly dependent on

an international clientele (e.g., Paris department stores and

retailers on prime high streets) are also highly affected by the

threat of terrorism.

The gap between prime and secondary assets is not the only

performance indicator, but it remains a key element in the French

retail market. Retailers continue to streamline their store networks

and retain only the busiest and most profitable sites. Relocations

favor major thoroughfares, the largest shopping centers, and the

most recent retail parks, always with an eye on a substantial

catchment area. New international retailers focus on the most

visible locations that also provide publicity. For its flagship store,

Five Guys opted for 1,150 m² on the Champs-Élysées. In an

unusual development strategy, Tesla is using the largest shopping

centers (e.g., Parly 2) to promote its automobiles.

These two examples do not conceal the fact that the number of

newcomers is relatively small. However, this has been

compensated for by sustained and more diverse demand from

players in a wide range of sectors. While numerous international

retailers continue to expand (Action, Primark, Tiger, Rituals, etc.),

the rapid development of franchises, both in city centers and on

the outskirts, increases the number of sales points opened.

Renewed efforts and fresh cash inflows have given some retailers

the tools needed to jumpstart growth (Fly, Cacharel, etc.). Finally,

new trends in consumption bring in new business more than ever.

Pure internet players (Spartoo, Made.com, Etsy, etc.) continue to

open stores and showrooms, while more traditional retailers test

concepts designed to attract new customers (Gifi on rue d’Alésia

in Paris, etc.).



Table Square | La Défense (92)©Banimmo

Fashion retailers aren’t just competing with other retailers — they’re competing with an afternoon at a museum, tickets to Hamilton, a concert or a great meal. In order to be successful, the store of the future will offer a mash-up of all these things: a sense of theatre, memorable content and hospitality, in a physical environment where you can do one or all of these things simultaneously.John Bricker, Creative Director at Gensler, The Business of Fashion, July 13, 2016.

Change according to sector

Trends in demand from retailers underscore the healthy

condition of the beauty-products sector. Several retailers

have carried out numerous openings since the beginning

of 2016. These retailers target the most attractive

locations for the expansion of their Paris networks (Le

Labo on rue Saint-Honoré, MAC on rue des Francs

Bourgeois, etc.). Once they have opened in Paris (or

even completed their network there), they turn to the

provinces. For example, Rituals, Aesop, and Bobbi Brown

will all be opening in rapid succession in the historic

center of Lille.

The food sector is also thriving, driven by the growth of

franchises and by the success of organic (Biocoop,

Naturalia, Bio c’ Bon) and small food shops (M&S Food).

In contrast with the problems facing traditional

restaurants, fast-food restaurants are still growing, as

seen in new openings and development projects of

international fast-food groups (Vapiano and, more

recently, Steak n’ Shake, Five Guys, and Wagamama).

The fast-food sector is expanding into a wide variety of

locations and store types (city centers, outskirts, transit

areas, shop-in-shops), including upmarket and atypical

concepts such as Table Square at La Défense.

Landlords continue to add new entertainment concepts

to their supply of sites, designed to increase the time

spent by customers in shopping centers or retail parks,

which are now considered destinations. After Dock 39

in Clos du Chêne and Supergreen, the latest trend was

recently illustrated by the openings of Mini World

in Carré de Soie near Lyon, Pirates Aventures

in L’Avenue 83 near Toulon, and Gulli Parc in Saint-

Orens. Each theme park covers 1,000‒2,500 m² and

includes restaurants.

The clothing sector is also undergoing significant

changes. Disposals and liquidations of established

brands (recent examples include Sinéquanone, La City,

New Man, Kookaï, and Chevignon) also reflect the

challenges of this highly competitive market.

Nonetheless fashion remains one of the main sources of

demand. Although the number of newcomers is

relatively low, large international groups continue to

open gargantuan flagship stores on high streets and in

shopping centers. These flagships provide significant

reinforcement to the French networks of Primark, Uniqlo,

Mango, etc. Several more specialized or upscale retailers

are also increasing their development projects. With

fresh capital and a strong demand for men’s fashion,

retailers are expanding their networks throughout Paris

and other French cities (e.g., Balibaris in Paris, Lille,

Toulouse, and Nantes; Sessun in Paris, Toulouse, and

Bordeaux; El Ganso in Toulouse, Marseille, and

Montpellier).



Openings of luxury stores in Paris in 2016

Rue Saint-Honoré

25%

Faubourg Saint-

Honoré14%

Vendôme/Paix14%

Avenue Montaigne

12%

Saint-Germain-des-Prés

10%

Le Marais6%

Other 19%

High Streets

Paris

Hotel occupancy rates fell in the first quarter of 2016. The

decline in Japanese (‒53%), Russian (‒39%), and Chinese

(‒0.4%) hotel occupancy rates reflects the challenges that now

pervade Paris tourism. Nevertheless, major projects continue on

several of Paris’s most prestigious high streets—especially the

Champs-Élysées, where retailers are taking advantage of the

influx of significant supply. In addition to Galeries Lafayette,

expected at the end of 2018 at no. 52, two newcomers have

recently confirmed their arrival on the Champs-Élysées: Skägen

at no. 142 and Five Guys at no. 49-51, in addition to the

extension of Nike at no. 65, replacing Tommy Hilfiger. Other

deals are under way for openings on "the most beautiful avenue

in the world," which may very well have taken on another image

in just a few years.

On the other hand, the transformation of rue Saint-Honoré

remains coherent. The street’s luxury positioning will soon be

further enhanced with the arrival of Fendi, Stella McCartney,

Brioni, and Paul Smith. Le Marais also seems to have emerged

unscathed by retailers’ reluctance to act. In early July, BHV

opened for business on a Sunday, its first under the Macron law.

After John Galliano, other new stores affirm that the

neighborhood remains a prime target for upscale men’s fashion,

including brands already present in some of Paris’s most

beautiful neighborhoods (Crockett & Jones, Weston).

Provinces

Toulouse, Lyon, and Bordeaux remain prime targets for both

upscale and mass-market retailers (Uniqlo on rue de la Porte

Dijeaux). The prime value of some of these cities’ leading

thoroughfares are still trending upwards. In other major cities,

sales of large properties facilitate the relocation of retailers, who

are thereby able to increase their sales points and have a

showcase better suited to their needs. In Lille, Nike and Mango

(rue Neuve et rue de Béthune) have flagship projects, and the

Happy Chic group intends to place its Brice and Bizzbee

retailers there. These development projects are in addition to

the numerous deals seen recently for smaller stores in the

historic part of Lille (rue Esquermoise, rue Lepelletier, rue Basse,

etc.). Some smaller French cities are also thriving. In Cannes,

several international retailers have opened on rue d’Antibes and

rue du Commandant André (Harmont & Blaine, Bialetti, Zara,

etc.), and luxury brands have opened on the Croisette (Dior,

Loro Piana).

Prime rental values (€/m²/year ZA)High Streets H1 2015 H1 2016

Paris | Avenue des Champs-Élysées 18,000 18,000

Paris | Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré 11,000 13,000

Paris | Boulevard Saint-Germain 6,500 6,500

Paris | Boulevard Haussmann 8,000 8,000

Paris | Rue des Francs-Bourgeois 4,500 4,500

Paris | Rue de Rivoli 3,500 3,500

Bordeaux | Rue Sainte-Catherine 2,200 2,400

Cannes | Boulevard de la Croisette 8,000 8,000

Lille | Rue de Béthune 2,000 1,800

Lyon | Rue de la République 2,400 2,400

Marseille | Rue Saint-Ferréol 1,800 1,600

Strasbourg | Rue des Grandes Arcades 2,000 1,800

Nice | Avenue Jean Médecin 2,200 2,200

Toulouse | Rue d’Alsace-Lorraine 2,000 2,000

Source: Cushman & Wakefield.




NB: the various types of openings include creations of new stores, reopenings after refurbishment, store relocations and extensions, pop-up stores, and retailer name changes.

Shopping centers

In the first half of 2016, the French shopping-center market

again saw several large openings and development projects.

Among the largest projects were flagships for major fashion

retailers: H&M in Jas de Bouffan in Aix-en-Provence, and Zara in

the Bab 2 extension in Anglet. Primark and Uniqlo, two retailers

very well known in France but with undeveloped networks, have

decided to pick up the pace. Primark plans to open in Evry 2 and

Euralille, while Uniqlo will open in Cap 3000, Rosny 2, and

Leclerc Blagnac. In other business segments and with smaller

stores, several young retailers have continued to expand

(Sostrene Grene, Paprika, Punt Roma, Steak n’ Shake, etc.). At

the same time, new concepts have been publicized (Orange

Smart Store, Flunch Café, Zing Pop Culture, etc.) and several

international retailers (OVS and As Adventure) have resumed

their development.

Steady activity in this segment of the market should not mask

the larger problems felt throughout the French market. The

wait-and-see attitude of retailers continues to curb business

activity. Retailers are nervous because of uncertainties related to

the economic and political environment, and because of

problems in certain sectors (e.g., clothing). Some retailers are

dialing back their ambitions, a change that could render less

attractive the sites most at risk, such as recently opened

shopping centers and projects currently under development.

But it is mainly retailers’ cost-cutting strategies that are

speeding closings and relocations, which large acquisitions will

further intensify (e.g., the merger of Darty and FNAC).

While the largest shopping centers remain above the fray,

longer leases and competition among sites encourage landlords

to lower vacancy rates and to make concessions to retailers. As

a result, rental values decline and incentives are more frequently

offered, though mainly for recent projects, intermediate-size

shopping centers, and hypermarket galleries.

Prime rental values (€/m²/year), H1 2016

Type Ile-de-France Provinces

Regional shopping center* 2,000 1,400

Large shopping center* 950 700

CNIT | La Défense (92)

Footfall Index for Shopping Centers in 2015-2016

-6,00%

-5,00%

-4,00%

-3,00%

-2,00%

-1,00%

0,00%

1,00%

2,00%

3,00%

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

yM

arch

Ap

ril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ob

erN

ove

mb

erD

ecem

ber

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

yM

arch

Ap

ril

May

2015 2016

Source: CNCC / Data from a panel of 154 shopping centers.




*For 150 m² of well-located retail space (clothing retailers or services) in existing shopping centers that are leaders in their catchment areas.

Retail parks

Trends in sales of specialized retailers and their distribution by

type of property reaffirm the success of retail parks. According to

Procos (French federation of specialized retailers), sales in

peripheral zones have shown annual growth of 1.2% over the first

five months of 2016. Sales growth for medium-size and large

stores was even higher (1.8% for the same period), in contrast

with a 2.6% decline of sales on high streets. The revival of the

residential market and the rebound of sales of household goods—

a sector long dominant in peripheral zones—provide more good

news for the retail-park market. Furniture sales over the first four

months of 2016 reached 5.8%, the best performance since 2011.

Trends for other sectors (e.g., cars, household appliances, DIY)

have also been positive. The positive economic environment and

the success of franchises are in addition to the creations and

extensions of numerous French retailers (Leroy-Merlin, Darty,

Truffaut, Intersport, Zodio, etc.) as well as the renewed

development of other retailers (Mobalpa). Newcomers from

outside France remain relatively rare. However, a few foreign

retailers have arrived on the scene (Lola & Liza in Ma Petite

Madelaine, L’Atoll, Waves, etc.). Also, the Dutch discount chain

Action is rapidly creating a network in France, while Costco has

confirmed its first opening ever in France, in Villebon-sur-Yvette

in 2017.

Retail parks also benefit from more structural changes, especially

with regard to the increasing number of disposals and relocations

of stores that have missed profitability targets or cannot be

deployed for new concepts more in line with consumer

expectations. Indeed, retail parks are relatively immune to cost

cutting. Occupancy costs for retail parks are much lower than for

shopping centers and high streets in France. Yet retail parks offer

more than affordable rental values. Tenants of retail parks save at

least 50% in expenses, compared to expenses for shopping

centers.

This top-down analysis should not conceal the fact that the

market is increasingly concentrated. Retailers target prime

locations and contribute mainly to already established zones (La

Croix Blanche in the Paris region, Plan de Campagne near

Marseille, etc.) and to the lettings of next-generation retail parks.

Elsewhere, relocations are rising overall, adding to economic

difficulties and retailer closings. This explains the rise in vacancy

rates of second-tier sites and the net decline in rental values.

Prime rental values (€/m²/year), H1 2016

Area Ile-de-France Provinces

0-300 m² 230-250 200-230

300-500 m² 200-230 180-200

500-1,000 m² 180-200 150-160

1,000-2,500 m² 140-170 120-130

> 2,500 m² 100-130 80-100


Gifi store



Prime yields

2.75%

4.00%

5.00%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

5,0%

6,0%

7,0%

8,0%

20052006200720082009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016H1

High streetsRegional shopping centersRetail parks (Ile-de-France)

Investment in French retail properties


2.3

4.8

1.2

1.9

3.6 3.3 3.64.0

7.7

5.2

1.9

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2016H1

Investment in retail properties (€ billions)Share in total investments (%)


THE INVESTMENT MARKET

At €1.9 billion (unchanged year on year), investment in

retail properties accounted for 23% of total investment in

the French commercial-property market in the first half

of 2016. Investments were boosted in the second quarter

of 2016 by the finalization of several large deals, such as

the sale of 65‒67 Champs-Élysées for nearly €500

million.

This transaction is the year’s largest so far. It has not only

revealed investor enthusiasm for Paris’s most beautiful

assets, but has also served to inflate the share of foreign

investors, which accounted for 57% of total retail

investment in France in the first half of 2016. Foreign

investors comprise mainly North Americans (ARES

Management, CarVal Investors) and Europeans (Meyer

Bergman, AG Real Estate, Pontegadea). French investors

were very active in first quarter but slowed in the second

(43% of total investment in the first half of 2016).

Despite a shortage of prime assets, the share of sums

invested on the high streets has risen sharply since the

beginning of the year (48% in the first half of 2016,

compared with 29% in the first quarter) because of the

sale of 65‒67 Champs-Élysées. Investors remain more

generally focused on France’s prime thoroughfares (e.g.,

Amundi’s acquisitions of the Hema and H&M stores on

rue du Sauvage in Mulhouse).

After a vigorous first quarter, sales of retail parks did not

exceed €40 million in the second quarter. However, two

portfolios also changed hands, including the sale to

Pierre 1er Gestion / Groupe Bertrand of the premises of 14

Burger King restaurants. Although this segment has

accounted for 29% of all retail deals since the beginning

of 2016, it is subject to intense investor caution. The

share of shopping centers and galleries is small (12%)

because of a limited number of deals. However, this

weakness is not expected to last. Grosvenor has put

several assets on the market, and Orion is selling the

Domus shopping center in Rosny-sous-Bois.

At €1.1 billion (+33% year on year), transactions in Île-de-

France accounted for 58% of total retail investment in

France. Investment was boosted by the sale of 65‒67

Champs-Élysées to a Middle Eastern investor,

confirmation that the Paris region remains the leading

market for foreign investors (70% of foreign investment

is in the Paris region). Only €800 million was invested in

the provinces (‒34% year on year), where shopping

centers continued to decline. Of total transactions in the

provinces, 37% were for assets in peripheral zones and

31% were for factory outlets.



Examples of openings in 2016 in France

High Streets M²

Former warehouse Macdonald | Paris (75019) 32,000

Former Banque de France | Lyon (69) 4,500

Cœur de Nantes | Nantes (44) 3,500

Marché Saint-Germain | Paris (75006) 3,500

Palais de la Bourse | Lille (59) 1,000

Shopping centers M²

Ametzondo | Saint-Pierre-d’Irube (64) 76,000

L’Avenue 83 | La Valette-du-Var (83) 51,000

Centre Bourse | Marseille (13) 21,500

Espace Fenouillet | Fenouillet (31) 17,500

Forum des Halles | Paris (75001) 11,500

Retail parks M²

Ma Petite Madelaine | Chambray l. Tours (37) 31,500

Les Montagnes | Champniers (16) 22,000

Les Blancs Monts | Cormontreuil (51) 18 ,500

Park Avenue | Saint-Maximin (60) 16,000

Cap Émeraude | Pleurtuit (35) 17,300

RETAIL PROPERTY STOCK

Several large construction projects were begun in the second

quarter of 2016. The first was the Village factory outlet, located in

Villefontaine, southeast of Lyon. The Village is expected to open

at the end of 2017, after the grand opening earlier that year of a

new McArthurGlen designer-outlets center in Miramas, near

Marseille. Several other new or expanded factory outlets are also

in the pipeline. Totaling slightly less than 300,000 m², these

factory outlets would significantly increase the French stock of a

format that is increasingly demanded by retailers. However, the

pace at which factory outlets expand is closely bound to third-

party appeals and to decisions of administrative commissions.

The appeals also add uncertainty to the retail-park market, even

though the volume of openings in 2016 should be close to that in

2015 (393,000 m²). At the end of the first half, nearly 450,000 m²

had been opened or were scheduled to be opened in 2016. This

figure is in line with the average volume of openings over the past

five years. The most recent openings include Ma Petite Madelaine

near Tours, opened at the end of April by the Compagnie de

Phalsbourg. This retail park of nearly 30,000 m² will be the

largest of 2016. Finally, in the first half of 2016, two large

construction projects were begun for delivery in 2017: Les

Promenades de Brétigny in the Paris region, and the Greencenter

in Amiens.

In 2016, the volume of new square meters for shopping centers

should be close to that for retail parks. In contrast with 2015, the

total will be driven mainly by extensions and redevelopment of

existing sites, whether to enhance leading regional shopping

centers (Forum des Halles, Euralille, etc.) or to refurbish the

property assets of large distribution retailers. With approximately

15 development projects planned for delivery this year, Mercialys

and Immochan are the principal proponents of modernization.

Pure creations account for only a dozen deals out of the 50 or so

expected in 2016. After Nice One, part of the new Allianz Riviera

stadium complex and partially opened in the first quarter, another

of the year’s largest creations was opened in the second quarter:

L’Avenue 83 near Toulon, where several international newcomers

have chosen to establish operations (Steak ’n Shake, Punt Roma,

Old Wild West, etc.).

Ma Petite Madelaine | Chambray-les-Tours (37)

©Compagnie de Phalsbourg. Photo by Frank Barylko.



Source: Cushman & Wakefield.Extensions and redevelopment projects are highlighted in blue.

REGULATORY UPDATE

Update on the implementation of the Macron law

The first meeting of the Observatory of Trade and Commerce in

International Tourist Zones (ITZ) was held at Bercy on June 21,

2016. The purpose of the meeting was to assess the new law

governing store hours on Sundays. The meeting also allowed the

government to reassess the ITZ. Nearly one year after the

creation of ITZ through the Macron law, several collective

agreements have been reached. After the agreement governing

the Jewelry, Precious Metals, and Gifts branch, signed at the

beginning of 2016, the French Federation for Clothing, Prêt-à-

Porter, and Fashion Designers reached an agreement with unions.

That agreement was signed last April. Chanel, Chloé, Christian

Dior, Givenchy, and Yves Saint-Laurent were among the larger

brands involved in the agreement.

While several retailers can now apply the new law (Darty, Etam,

Nature et Découvertes, L’Occitane, Tati, SMCP and Inditex

groups, etc.), others are still in negotiation (e.g., FNAC, whose

negotiations were blocked by three unions last June).

Department stores continue to advance unequally. BHV was the

first to benefit from Sunday openings, Galeries Lafayette may be

able to open Sundays by the end of 2016, and the management of

Printemps has presented employees with its first propositions.

Printemps hopes to be open seven days a week by the fall.

Labor law and franchise

Adopted last July only by application of Article 49-3 (by which a

bill is pushed through by the executive branch without a vote by

the assembly), the “El Khomri” labor law includes an amendment

that provides for negotiation within franchise networks. Parties to

the negotiation are the franchise, franchised outlets, and elected

employees. Although initially rejected by the Senate committee

on social affairs, this amendment (Article 29 bis A) was reinstated

by the National Assembly. The law now applies to franchise

networks of at least 300 employees (including the franchise and

the franchised outlets), compared with 50 in the first draft of the

bill.

Several representatives from the franchise industry are

vehemently opposed to this amendment, which they claim

jeopardizes the principle of legal independence between the

franchise and the franchised outlets. Industry representatives

believe that the law will curb the growth of a business model

whose strength is attributable to its considerable flexibility.

Macron law | Calendar for implementationof the reform

August 2015

• Evening openings of retailers on the Champs-Élysées

• Full opening of the Marais ITZ

November / December 2015

• Continuous opening of bd Haussmann and other department stores during the holiday period

August 2015 / May 2016

• Opening of shopping centers Beaugrenelle, BercyVillage, and Val d’Europe in the Paris region, and Polygone Riviera and Nice Etoile in the provinces

April 2016

• Opening of Forum des Halles in Paris

July 2016

• Opening of BHV in Paris as part of ITZ

September 2016

• Opening of rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré

Fall 2016

• Gradual opening of avenue Montaigne and place Vendôme

Source: Ministry of the Economy, Industry, and Digital Sector, June 2016.



Cushman & Wakefield France21 rue Balzac75008 Paris

cushmanwakefield.fr

CONTACTS

Christian DuboisHead of Retail Services

Cushman & Wakefield France

[email protected]

Tél. : +33 1 53 76 92 96

David BourlaHead of Research

Cushman & Wakefield France

[email protected]

Tél. : +33 1 53 76 91 91

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Cover photo: L’Atoll in Beaucouzé (49)

©Compagnie de Phalsbourg. Photo by Frank Barylko.

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