restructuring monocities as a lever of paradigm shift towards iconomics for russian economy

Restructuring monocities as a lever of paradigm shift towards iconomics for Russian economy

Клод РошкеПрофевор университет париж сакле

Claude Rochet Professeur des universités

Chercheur associé LAREQUOI Université de Paris [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

01/05/2023Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg

2Summary

What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not

Physics of city What the smart cities from the past can teach

us? Towards an organic and sustainable

innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia

01/05/2023

3Summary

What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not

Physics of city What the smart cities from the past can teach



Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg


4

Top down mono functional cityMonocities have turned to be an obstacle to growth in Russia, representing up to 31% GDP.A US$ 525 million cost for the federal Govt each year

Monocities are the legacy of the paradigm of the IInd industrial revolution based on mass and standardized production.

Iconomics is the new paradigm based on information techs.

Togliatti (Russia):


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Monocities= specialization in decreasing returns activities Decreasing returns due to

• mono specialization in primary activities• localization in remote places• No synergies between activities

• 335 mono goroda (31% of towns)• 16 Mon hab. (25% urban pop.)• Urbanisation rate: 75%

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6

What a smart city can’t be A collection of « smarties » A techno centric city A city without past

= EU ideology!

A deterministic system


Ont the contrary Smart city = Integrated complex system


7 Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and

why Russian monocities may not Physics of the city What the smart cities from the past can teach



8Cities scaling laws

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Densité

Pote

ntie

l d’

inte

rcon

nexi

ons

Y=x2 Metcalfe law

But…..

Distance

Inte

rcon

nexi

ons

réel

les Von Thünen Tobler law

Exte

rnal

ités +

et _

Taille

But…..

TailleNo

mbr

e de

ville

sMarshall West Bettencourt law

Zipf law

Combining these laws:

05/01/2023Size x Number of cities

Conn

ectio

ns x

wea

lth

New town

Clustering medium size cities

New townDefining the perimeter and the« in and out » interrelations of the system is a key issue in cities 'system design


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Good and bad complexity

At a certain point growing complexity produces more negative than positive externalities and become unmonitorable

Bad complexityGood complexity

Growing size

Grow

ing

com

plex

ity

E. g. Detroit (USA), Russian monocities…

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A (really) smart city is an emerging ecosystem

Smart city framework= A great number of interactions between people x connected objects whose quantity and speed is in dramatic increase at date.

The behavior of a system is predictable when the sequence of transitions from one state to another can be described.

Emergence takes place when the space of possible states or rules of transitions changes: the city can’t be described by the model that described it until then. (Heylighen & Joslyn 1991) : The behavior is no longer predictable

Modeling emergence implies:1. Carrying on a watch of all kinds of as well exogenous (e.g. human behavior) as

endogenous (e.g. disruptive technology) changes.2. Mapping the properties, desirable an undesirable, the system can take. 3. The values attached to theses properties in a precise context.4. Defining a meta system which variety could monitor the growth of complexity.



12What modeling means?

Reality

Model = abstract representation of perceived reality

Human constructed reality

Emergence

Transition

fedback

Evolutionary model

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A smart city is an integration of two kinds of systems

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Hard systems may be modeled thanks to the laws of physics (conservative systems)

Soft systems can’t be modeled with the laws of physics (dissipative systems)

- Social sciences- Big data- Autopoeisis

- Multi-agents modeling

The key of the success is here…

… while business is there

Politics must prevail on a bottom up basis



why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past

teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable



15

Middle age cities were smart: organic development, common good, synergies between economic activities

Common good

Vivere politico

Economic welfare

Pivate good


16Direct democracy was at the root of the city life and its organic evolutionA russian born

institution

Novogorod veche: Rule by popular assembly

Новгоро́дская респу́блика вече


17Middle Age cities grew on an organic planning basis

« Organic planning does not begin with a preconceived goal; it moves from need to need, from opportunity to opportunity, in a series of adaptations that themselves become increasingly coherent and purposeful, so that they generate a complex final design, hardly less unified than a pre-formed geometric pattern. »

Coherence without the need of a detailed plan!

From organic growth to top-down planning

05/01/2023


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Екатеринбург was founded top down in 1723 to be a mono industry city.

Modern cities (from XVI° onward) were designed through detailed plans.

The political associated ideal was autocracy (Vasily Tatishchev).

The opposite of the organic grown-up middle-age city!

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Urban dynamics: from neo cybernetics to autopoesis First order cybernetics (Forrester):

The city as a self regulating system by single feedback loop…

... Or a super command and control machinery (Rio) The 2nd order of cybernetics includes autopoeisis of

human dissipative systems The complexity of the city is a combination of several

laws and not top-down predictable There is a positive correlation between growth of the

city size and its complexity.... ... But there is a good and a bad complexity



21

A quasi zero order cybernetics unable to self regulate

Paris métro….


22First order cybernetics city

The myth of the super mind and perfect control

IBM at Rio do Janeiro

The big brother like city

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23Autopoeisis: Why and How?

An autopoeitic system is “a network of processes of production (transformation and destruction) of components which: (i) through their interactions and transformations continuously regenerate and realize the network of processes that produced them; and (ii) constitute it as a concrete unity in space in which they (the components) exist by specifying the topological domain of its realization as such a network.” H. Maturana

Autopoeisis is a property of human dissipative system: strong entropy and correlative capabilities to reproduce itself permanently thanks to its internal interactions



24

Autopoeisis: Why and How? Autopoeisis makes the system able to face

with the rapid changing of the environment: “This generalized view of autopoiesis

considers systems as self-producing not in terms of their physical components, but in terms of its organization, which can be measured in terms of information and complexity. In other words, we can describe autopoietic systems as those producing more of their own complexity than the one produced by their environment".

C. Gershenson


25

Autopeoietic system integration works bottom-up based on “ordinary actions of the people”

NO! An evolutionary process

Integration process is bottom-up…… based on ordinary interactions

We must understand how ordinary people behave

Q: Is there an architect with a master plan?


26The necessity of an evolutionary dynamics

Emergence of the city pattern

Experiencing autopoeitic properties

Organic complexity growth

Example of impact of an exogenous/endogenous change: The propagation of the electric vehicle

Urban Lifecycle Management





innovating city Methodology and examples (good and

bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia

Methodology : Strategic Analysis

01/05/2023

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Why building a city & what are the strategic goals?

Who are the stakeholders?

What are the generic functions to be performed

by a smart city?

With which organs? Technical devices, software…

With which smart people?

Conception, metamodel framework, steering

Subsystems and processes

People and tools

Why designing this ecosystem?Who will live in the city?What are its activities?

How the city will be fed?Where the city is located ? (context)

What are the functions to be performed to reach the goals and how

do they interact?

With which organs and ressources?

How people will interact with the artifacts?

How civic life will organize?


People as end-users

People as citizens

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Why do we need strong citizen based interactions within a system? (1)

Economy: An economic structure based on synergies of economics activities

is the condition to wealth creation which reinforces itself through interaction of a political power based on the Common Good (Reinert, 2006, Rochet, 2012)

FFF (Failed, Fragile and Failing states) : The missing link is related to the lack of increasing returns based on « coopetitive » diffusion of means (…) productive governance often enforces the development sustainable productive structures based usually on a participatory system.

“State failure an fragility are often preceded, or at least accompanied, by failure and fragility of cities” (Reinert & Kattel, 2009)

“The more the participatory system is closed to democracy and shared economic growth with special focus on health, education and communication infrastructure building, more quickly the divergence between countries narrows down.» (Reinert &Kattel, 2009)



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Resilience: A smart city is a highly internally connected

facing with a turbulent environment, that challenges its resilience.

Strong social capabilities enforces the autopoeitic properties of the system, and consequently its resilience.

E.g. Christchurch (NZ)

26/01/2016


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New techniques arise

Design thinking (Stanford, Ecole des Ponts)

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Citizen is at the interface of technological devices which consume and produce data (e.g. The smart phone)

The frontier between production and consumption is blurred more than in other cases of information economy (McLuhan): the prosumer.

In a rapid innovative system the citizen is a lead user of the innovation process (Von Hippel).

The power of these technical systems requires strong political control to be both fully efficient and not becoming the level of a totalitarian system (Simondon).Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg


33

Direct democracy has a strong record in the management of cities and human communities as complex systems

Schumpeterian economics correlates synergies between activities, political freedom and common weal.

Traditional decision making system may help modeling a resilient human system e.g.: ongoing research project of modeling an eco-efficient drinking water network in Angola with the palaver tree.


34Bad example: The Globalized city

01/05/2023City centerSuburbPeriphery Suburb Periphery

Inco

mes

ineq

ualit

y

Low cost immigrants Low cost

immigrants

Old medium and working class

Super riches

Connected upper class

Communautarism and lost of urban synergies

Urban poors

Regional insurrection in desindustrialized periphery


35The political divide between globalized cities and peripheries


36The false green cities

Integrating imported pollution, energy waste…. produced by a dysfunctional ecosystem

Is the city really green? The worst case: Paris

socio-ethnic greenwashing


37

The perfectly integrated smart city: Singapore

The man-made mechanical forest consists of 18 supertrees that act as vertical gardens, generating solar power, acting as air venting ducts for nearby conservatories, and collecting rainwater. To generate electricity, 11 of the supertrees are fitted with solar photovoltaic systems that convert sunlight into energy, which provides lighting and aids water technology within the conservatories below


38Singapore vs. NorilskCommon features: Unhealthy and hostile climate, no reason for existing except a political will, no natural assets, no industry, no initial social capital…

Depressing monoindustry and pollution A city thought of from the beginning as a smart nation

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39New paradigms in public decision making

Polycentric governance (Ostrom): deciding in small units on a large scale

Bottom up decision processes : e.g. Michael Batty modeling decision process as a Markov chains to bring back the city in a ergodic state

Large deliberative upfront processes reduce uncertainty e.g. The Parable of the Hare and the Tortoise: Small Worlds, Diversity, and System Performance (Lazer & Friedman 2005)

« In short, cities are more like biological than mechanical systems. The rise of the sciences of complexity, which have changed the direction of system theory from top down to the bottom-up is one that treats such systems as open, based more on the product of an evolutionary process than a grand design » Michael Batty « A new Science of Cities » 2015



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A paradoxical research question:Can we conceive the gov’t of a city that should not need a government?

At date, if we assume the benchmark of a smart city is Singapore: it’s not really a democracy.

At date, we don’t know large systems that have developed spontaneously self organizing properties .

Rules, as a genetic code of an ecosystem, are the result of a long term learning process: Cf. biomimicry

A Machiavellian approach: The Prince is to fix the good institutions from the top down giving the citizens the rights to challenge the power of the few in charge, so that top down and bottom-up converge.

We have a lot of references of direct democracy experiences, how they were born, how they died.

Smart cities and paradigm shift in Russia towards iconomy


Training of actors,

Knowledge transfer to SME

Smart Cities Pilot Projects

Social capabilities

improvement

System modeling and

integration capacities

Investments and reference

realizations

Territories development

Technology transfer

Absorptive capacities

Organic development

R&DActions Realizations Strategic assets

Autopoeisis


43

Business model transition

Present Russia Fed Gov’t 520 Mion USD Social cost of monocities

Transition scenario

Smartization of monocities

Investments

Foreign Investments

+ Increasing returns of smart cities

Virtuous reinforcement

01/05/2023 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 44

Merci!

44

Thank you!

Спасибо

restructuring monocities as a lever of paradigm shift towards iconomics for russian economy

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