responses of the macroalgal key species fucus serratus driving the impact of climate change on north...

Responses of the Macroalgal Key SpeciesFucus serratus

Driving the Impact of Climate Changeon North Atlantic Rocky Shores

Jüterbock A. Coyer J.A. Tyberghein L.Olsen J.L. Hoarau [email protected]

BPS Annual Winter Meeting, Newcastle 2012

Jüterbock et al. (UiN, UGent, RUG) Climate Change Responses BPS 2012 1 / 15

Introduction

Human impact on marine ecosystems

IC

[Halpern et al., 2010; Science]


Introduction

Recent warming in the North Atlantic

Shift of the 15°C isotherm330 km north

1985 2000

[McMahon & Hays, 2006; Global Change Biol.]


Introduction

Main objective

What is the impact of climate change on theNorth Atlantic intertidal ecosystem?


Introduction

Fucus serratus, a habitat-provisioning key-species onNorth Atlantic rocky shorese.g. [Fredriksen et al., 2005; Mar. Biol. Res.]

Glacial Refugia

Locations of glacial refugia based on: [Hoarau et al., 2007; Mol. Ecol.]; algalfrond from: [Køie et al., 2001; Der große Kosmos Strandführer].


Introduction

Recent changes in southern edge populationsof F. serratus

© Coyer, J.A.

1999


Introduction

Recent changes in southern edge populationsof F. serratus

© Coyer, J.A.

1999

2010Reduced reproductive capacity[Viejo et al., 2011; Ecography]


Objectives

Specific aims

Responses of F. serratus

Distributional changesSelection


Projects Distributional changes

Modelling the Ecological Niche of F. serratusPresent-day conditions

Bio-ORACLE database[Tyberghein et al., 2011; Global Ecol. Biogeogr.].

Georeferenced Occurrences

Calcite (mol/m3)Dissox (ml/l)

SST (℃)SAT (℃)

Ecological Niche Model (Maxent [Phillips et al., 2006; Ecol. Model.])

2000 2100 ? 2200 ?



Modelling the Ecological Niche of F. serratusPresent-day conditions

Bio-ORACLE database[Tyberghein et al., 2011; Global Ecol. Biogeogr.].

Georeferenced Occurrences

Calcite (mol/m3)Dissox (ml/l)

SST (℃)SAT (℃)

Ecological Niche Model (Maxent [Phillips et al., 2006; Ecol. Model.])

2000 2100 ? 2200 ?A1B IPCC scenario changes

SST (℃)SAT (℃)

SST (℃)SAT (℃)



Drastic northward niche shift until 2200

Persistent habitatHabitat loss 49%Habitat gain 56%

Unsuitable habitat



Specific aims


Distributional changeSelection


Projects Selection

Genotyping of temporally paired samples(50–75 ind./pop)

Sampling ∼ 2000 Sampling ∼ 2010

1 decadeof selection


Projects Selection




Genotyping31 microsatellites (20 EST-linked); ABI 3500xl Genetic Analyzer


Projects Selection




Genotyping31 microsatellites (20 EST-linked); ABI 3500xl Genetic Analyzer

Testing forChanges in allelic richnessGenetic differentiationOutlier loci


Projects Selection

Loss of genetic diversity at the southern distributionalmargin

∼ 2000 ∼ 2010Allelic richness α

3.18

4.55

8.614.24

3.10

4.19

8.723.68*−14%

*: p < 0.05


Projects Selection

Genetic differentiation over the past decade

∼ 2000 ∼ 2010

*: p < 0.05

0.044*

0.010*

0.008*0.008*

FST


Projects Selection

Loci under selection

∼ 2000 ∼ 2010

*: p < 0.05

5%

0%

24%14%

Outlier loci


Conclusions

Conclusions


Distributional changeSelection


Conclusions

Conclusions


Distributional changedrastic northward shift in absence of evolution and plasticity

Selection


Conclusions

Conclusions


Distributional changedrastic northward shift in absence of evolution and plasticity

Selectionsignificant genetic changes, but are they adaptive to climate change?


Conclusions

Overall conclusion

Climate change drivenecosystem shift?


Conclusions

Acknowledgements

Jorge FernandesKetil EianeKurt TandeIrina SmolinaMark PowellMarion Skog NilsenKevin Klingan

Ellen SirnesRenate Fretheim KarlsenAnn-Merete SiverstenNina Ellingsen HøiskarHeidi Klæboe NilsenRandi Restad SjøvikFrans Allmendingen

Tor Ove DypingBjørnar EggenKaspar KlaudiussenSteinar JohnsonMorten Krogstad

Olivier De Clerck Heroen Verbruggen Klaas Pauly


Appendix

5 Appendix


Appendix

References I

Fredriksen, S.; Christie, H.; Saethre, B.A. (2005)Species richness in macroalgae and macrofauna assemblages on Fucusserratus L. (Phaeophyceae) and Zostera marina L. (Angiospermae) inSkagerrak, Norway.Marine Biology Research 1(1):2–19.

Halpern, B.S.; Walbridge, S.; Selkoe, K.A.; Kappel, C.V.; Micheli, F.;D’Agrosa, C.; Bruno, J.F.; Casey, K.S.; Ebert, C.; Fox, H.E. andothers (2010)A global map of human impact on marine ecosystemsScience 319(5856):948–952.


Appendix

References II

Hoarau, G.; Coyer, J.A.; Veldsink, J.H.; Stam, W.T.; Olsen, J.L.(2007)Glacial refugia and recolonization pathways in the brown seaweedFucus serratusMolecular Ecology 16(17):3606–3616.

Køie, M.; Kristiansen, A.; Weitemeyer, S. (2001)Der große Kosmos Strandführer.Kosmos.McMahon, C.R. & Hays, G.C. (2006)Thermal niche, large-scale movements and implications of climatechange for a critically endangered marine vertebrate.Global Change Biology 12(7):1330–1338.


Appendix

References III

Pearson, G.A.; Lago-Leston, A.; Mota, C. (2009)Frayed at the edges: selective pressure and adaptive response toabiotic stressors are mismatched in low diversity edge populations.Journal of Ecology 97(3):450–462.

Phillips, S.J.; Anderson, R.P.; Schapire, R.E. (2006)Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.Ecological Modelling190(3-4):231–259.

Tyberghein, L.; Verbruggen, H.; Pauly, K.; Troupin, C.; Mineur, F.; DeClerck, O. (2011)Bio-ORACLE: a global environmental dataset for marine speciesdistribution modelling.Global Ecology and Biogeography.


Appendix

References IV

Viejo, R.M.; Martínez, B.; Arrontes, J.; Astudillo, C.; Hernández, L.(2011)Reproductive patterns in central and marginal populations of a largebrown seaweed: drastic changes at the southern range limit.Ecography 34(1):75–84.
