resource base in thailand
DESCRIPTION
Resource Base in ThailandTRANSCRIPT
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1A Review & Classificationof
Petroleum Resource Base in Thailand
Anon PunnahitanonPetroleum EngineerMineral Fuel DivisionDepartment of Mineral Resources
ObjectivesReview Current Petroleum Resource Classification System Currently used in DMR
Reclassify Petroleum Resources & Reserves into the Same Classification System
Estimate Petroleum Resource Base
Outlook on the Petroleum Industry of the Country
Outline
Resource Classification SystemReserve DefinitionReserve DefinitionResource EvaluationReserve DevelopmentResource Base @ end 2001Resource Lifecycle & Reserve GrowthResource Lifecycle & Reserve Growth Projection
Resource Classification SystemResource Classification System
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2Resources (Recoverable Resources)Petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered from known accumulations from a given date forward
Undiscovered ResourcesDiscovered Resources Undiscovered ResourcesTotal estimated quantities to be recovered from accumulations that remainto be discovered
HypotheticalMapped prospects
SpeculativeNot yet been mapped
Discovered ResourcesTotal discovered deliverable quantitiesbased on in place volume and recovery factor
ReservesAticipated to be commercially recovered from known accumulations from a given date forward
Potential ResourcesNot commercially producible at present
ReservesPetroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered from known accumulations from a given date forward
Proved Reserves Unproved ReservesProved ReservesEstimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recovered
Unproved ReservesLess certain to be recovered than proved reserves
Probable reservesMore likely than notto be recovered
Possible reservesLess likely than likely to be recovered
Developed ReservesExpected to be recovered form existing wells
Undeveloped ReservesExpected to be recoveredwith additional capital investment
Reserve DefinitionsReserve Definitions Reserves
Reserves Contributing Factors
Reserves
Economic Conditions Government Regulations
Historical prices/costs
Operating Methods
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3ReservesReservesDeterministic vs.
Probabilistic
Probabilistic Estimation
Probability Cum. Probability90 th percentile
Possible ?
V l
90 th percentile10 th percentile
Mean
Value
10 th percentile
Mean, P50
Probable ?
Value Value
Proved ?
Probabilistic Estimation (Contd)Probability
Which one is the most confident ?
Mode
Geometric Mean
Median
Value
90 th percentile10 th percentile
Probabilistic estimate is very useful to form an uncertainty range of and estimation.
Applying Statistics in Reserves Estimation
If statistical method is to be used, each reserve category should be assessed on different basis to reflect its inherent different
range of and estimation.
Its implication is what the safe side of the estimate and what the outrageous one are
level of confidence in data from which it is derived.
Criteria in assessing level of confidence is qualitatively spelled out in SPE/WPC definitions.
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4CautionBecause of potential differences in uncertainty,
caution should be exercisedwhen aggregating different reserve classification
Resource / ReserveAssessment
Petroleum Provinces
Northern IntermontaneNorthern Intermontane
Central PlainNortheasternGulf of ThailandThe Andaman Sea
Gas (TCF) Oil (MMBBL) Condensate (MMBBL)
Basins
Low High Low High Low High
Estimated Undiscovered Resources
Low High Low High Low HighOnshore Tertiary
0.2 0.5 120.0 260.0 - -
Pre-Tertiary 3.5 11.0 - - 1.0 5.0
Gulf of Thailand
11.0 33.0 110 350 225.0 600.0
Andaman Sea
2.5 7.5 30.0 100.0 30.0 100.0
Total 17.2 52.0 260.0 710.0 256.0 705.0
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5 Oil (MMBBL)
Condensate (MMBBL)
Natural Gas (BCF)
Estimated Discovered ResourcesPotential Recoveries
( ) ( ) ( )Gulf of Thailand 92.42 7.29 633.77 Onshore NA NA NA
Possible Reserves 253.4 321.0 7,617.8
Ultimate RecoveryOil
(MMBBLS)Condensate(MMBBLS)
Natural Gas(BCF)
Probable Reserves 156.9 245.1 9,654.4 Proved Reserves 325.0 262.4 13,301.6 Cumulative Production 188.6 196.5 6,739.5
924 1,025 37.3
Oil (MMBBL)
Condensate (MMBBL)
Natural Gas (BCF)
Undiscovered Resources 260 256 17 200 0
Total Resource Base
Undiscovered Resources 260 256 17,200.0Potential Recovery 92.4 7.3 633.8Possible Reserves 253.4 321.0 7,617.8 Probable Reserves 156.9 245.1 9,654.4Proved Reserves 325.0 262.4 13,301.6Cumulative Production 188.6 196.5 6,739.5
Total 1 276 3 1 288 3 55 147 1 Total 1,276.3 1,288.3 55,147.1
250
300
350
12,000
14,000
16,000
250
300
350
12,000
14,000
16,000
Thailand Petroleum Proved Reserves 1979-2001
100
150
200
250
M
M
B
B
L
s
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
B
C
F
100
150
200
250
M
M
B
B
L
s
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
B
C
F
0
50
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
-
2,000
Oil Condensate Gas
0
50
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
-
2,000
Oil Condensate Gas
Field Growth or Reserve Growth
An Increase in Ultimate Recovery(Proved Reserves + Cumulative Production)
Annual Field Growth (AFG)
URAFGn =UR n-1
n
UR *
Cumulative Field Growth (CFG)
CFGn = UR 1 nUR *2 ...*
-
6100
120i
a
l
%
Petroleum Resource Lifecycle
40
60
80
t
i
m
a
t
e
R
e
c
o
v
e
r
y
P
o
t
e
n
t
i
0
20
U
l
t
Proved + Production Unproved Potential Undiscovered Resources
100
120
F
a
c
t
o
r
100
120
F
a
c
t
o
r
Natural Gas Reserve Cumulative Growth
y = 71.106Ln(x) - 167.7540
60
80
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e
G
r
o
w
t
h
F
y = 71.106Ln(x) - 167.7540
60
80
u
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e
G
r
o
w
t
h
F
20
0 10 20 30 40 50
Year
C
u
20
0 10 20 30 40 50
Year
C
u
35
40
45
F
a
c
t
o
r
35
40
45
F
a
c
t
o
r
Crude Oil Reserve Cumulative Growth
y = 23.268Ln(x) - 47.113
10
15
20
25
30
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e
G
r
o
w
t
h
F
y = 23.268Ln(x) - 47.113
10
15
20
25
30
m
u
l
a
t
i
v
e
G
r
o
w
t
h
F
5
10
0 10 20 30 40 50Year
C
u
m
5
10
0 10 20 30 40 50
C
u
m
18.2TCF32%
Natural Gas Resource Outlook
?55.1 TCF
Undiscovered Resources
68%
36.9 TCFTCF
Unproved Reserves
+ Potential Recovery
2002 2022
p
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7Crude Oil Resource Outlook
913 MMBBLS352
MMBBLS28% ?1,276 MMBBLS
72%
913 MMBBLS
2002 2023
50
60
50
60
Thailand Petroleum Proved Reserves 1979-2001
20
30
40
20
30
40 OilCondensateGas
OilCondensateGas
17 Years10
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
10
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
17 Years
DMRs Current Classification System is Reviewed
Summary
Estimated Petroleum Resource Base for Oil, Condensate and Natural Gas are 1,276 MMBBLS, 1,288 MMBBLS, and 55 TCF, Respectively
Total Reserves are 924 MMBBLS Oil, 1025 MMBBLS Condensate, and 37.3 TCF Natural Gas
Summary (Contd)
Projection of Reserve Growth for Oil and Gas shows that total Reserves will sustain
Petroleum Industry has Past Mature Stage with Total Ultimate Recovery for Oil and Natural Gas 72% and 68 % of Total
Gas shows that total Reserves will sustain the Growth for the Next 20 Years
Natural Gas 72% and 68 % of Total Resource Base