RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH PRIME CENTRAL LONDON RENTAL rents in prime central London fell 2.2% ... a group of would-be vendors who ... PRIME CENTRAL LONDON RENTAL INDEX
Post on 20-Apr-2018
Average rents in prime central London fell 2.2% year-on-year in December, which was the most modest decline recorded in 21 months. Average rental values for existing homes have been falling year-on-year for more than two years due to rising supply but the pattern is now reversing.A large spike in new lettings properties in the middle of last year, which followed the introduction of the additional rate of stamp duty in April 2016, was one of the factors behind the increase. The other key reason has been a growing number of so-called accidental landlords, a group of would-be vendors who are waiting for more pricing certainty before they return to the sales market.As figure 2 shows, the rate of new lettings properties coming onto the market has slowed. Indeed, November was the first month in 2017 that recorded a year-to-date decline in the number of new lettings properties placed on the market, with a fall of 1.2%.Demand remained stronger than last year, which will also underpin rental value growth. There was a 19% rise in viewings between January and November 2017 compared to 2016. The number of tenancies agreed rose 14% over the same period while there were 17% more new prospective tenants registering.From an investor perspective, in a world of low returns, the prime central London lettings market became a comparatively more attractive asset class in 2017.Although extra taxes have given landlords pause for thought in recent years, this has come against the backdrop of rental values that are bottoming out.The current average gross yield in prime central London is 3.2%.This is higher than the risk-free rate of a 10-year UK government bond, which was yielding approximately 1.2% in mid-December. Indeed the spread between the two is high by historic standards, as figure 1 shows.This trend looks set to continue which, combined with bottoming out sales values, will boost total returns. Despite the fact that UK inflation rose to 3.1% in December, there is no immediate likelihood of a rate rise. Indeed, subject to the usual caveats, the Bank of England expects the base rate to be 1% in 2020, which is still ultra-low by historical standards.December 2017An average gross yield of 3.2% in prime central London compared to a 10-year UK government bond yield of 1.2%Average rents in prime central London fell 2.2% year-on-year in DecemberThe number of new lettings properties coming onto the market recorded a like-for-like fall of 1.2% between January and November versus 2016There was a 19% rise in viewings between January and November 2017 versus 2016The number of tenancies agreed rose 14% in the first eleven months of 2017Macroview: The political backdropIn a world of low returns, the prime central London lettings market became a comparatively more attractive asset class in 2017.Follow Tom at @TomBill_KF For the latest news, views and analysis on the world of prime property, visit Global Briefing or @kfglobalbriefTOTAL RETURNS IN PRIME CENTRAL LONDON SET TO RISEA combination of rising rents and capital values means total returns will improve, says Tom BillRESIDENTIAL RESEARCHPRIME CENTRALLONDON RENTAL INDEXFIGURE 1 PCL returns look more attractive Spread between average gross PCL yield and 10-year UK government bond yieldSource: Knight Frank ResearchTOM BILL Head of London Residential ResearchSource: Knight Frank Research-2.0%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Jul-17Aug-17Sep-17Oct-17Nov-17 PCL yield UK 10yr govt bond yield PCL vs UK 10yr bond spread (right axis) New properties on the market New prospective tenants Tenancies agreed Applicant viewingsFIGURE 2 New demand outpaces new supply Calendar year-to-date 2017 versus 2016This report analyses the performance of single-unit rental properties in the second-hand prime central London market between 500 and 5,000-plus per week. For an analysis of the build-to-rent market and the institutional private rented sector in London and the rest of the UK, please see our Private Rented Sector Update report here. PRIME CENTRAL LONDON RENTAL INDEXDATA DIGESTThe Knight Frank Prime Central London Index, established in 1995 is the most comprehensive index covering the prime central London residential marketplace.The index is based on a repeat valuation methodology that tracks rental values of prime central London residential property. Prime central London is defined in the index as covering: Belgravia, Chelsea, The City& Fringe, Hyde Park, Islington, Kensington, Kings Cross, Knightsbridge, Marylebone, Mayfair, Notting Hill, South Kensington, St Johns Wood and Tower Bridge. Prime London comprises all areas in prime central London, and in addition Canary Wharf, Fulham, Hampstead, Richmond, Riverside*, Wandsworth, Wapping and Wimbledon.* Riverside in prime central London covers the Thames riverfront from Battersea Bridge in the west to Tower Bridge in the east, including Londons South Bank. The City Fringe encompasses the half-mile fringe surrounding most of the City including Clerkenwell and Farringdon in the west and Shoreditch and Whitechapel in the east.RESIDENTIAL RESEARCHTom Bill Head of London Residential Research +44 20 7861 1492 email@example.comRESIDENTIAL LETTINGSTim Hyatt Head of Lettings +44 20 7861 5044 firstname.lastname@example.orgPRESS OFFICE Harry Turner +44 20 3861 6974 email@example.com Jamie Obertelli+44 20 7861 firstname.lastname@example.orgImportant Notice Knight Frank LLP 2017 - This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Knight Frank LLP for any loss or damage resultant from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank LLP in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of Knight Frank LLP to the form and content within which it appears. Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England with registered number OC305934. Our registered office is 55 Baker Street, London, W1U 8AN, where you may look at a list of members names. 250 500 750 1,000 1,500 2,000+ Flat House - 500 pw - 750 pw - 1,000 pw - 1,500 pw - 2,000 pw pw 1 month 0.0% 0.1% -0.2% -0.4% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1% -0.2%3 months -0.8% -0.5% -0.3% -1.6% -1.2% -0.3% -0.6% -0.9%6 months -0.8% -0.3% 0.2% -2.1% -1.4% -0.7% -0.8% -0.7%1 year -1.8% -1.0% -0.1% -4.8% -4.0% -2.0% -2.1% -2.4%YTD -1.8% -1.0% -0.1% -4.8% -4.0% -2.0% -2.1% -2.4%FIGURE 3 Rental value growth in prime central London by price bracket and property typePrime Central London Index 162.6MACROVIEW | THE POLITICAL BACKDROPNews of a breakthrough in Brexit negotiations in early December meant that political uncertainty in the UK receded to some extent.David Davis, the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, said the odds of the UK leaving the EU with no deal had dropped dramatically.Political uncertainty has not been the primary reason for the relative slowdown in sales volumes and price declines in prime central LondonTax changes have been the fundamental cause of pricing tension between buyers and sellers.However, the political backdrop has altered the more intangible dynamic of sentiment. This, in turn, has prolonged the period over which asking prices have adjusted to higher transaction costs. Two general elections and a referendum since 2015 mean political uncertainty has played an important role.While there would be a material impact on prime central London property markets in the event of a large-scale exodus of financial services workers from London, there are few indications this would happen.Instead, as a greater sense of pragmatism appears to take hold in Brexit talks, it is the stability of the UK government rather than the contents of the deal that would arguably have a greater impact.In the week following the breakthrough deal on 8 December, came a government Parliamentary defeat over the extent to which MPs will have a final say on the shape of the deal, reopening questions about how able the government will be to implement its version of Brexit.However, it is worth noting that a version of Brexit that has the backing of a majority in Parliament may lead to a more consensual outcome that is less subject to challenge.The indirect role played by politics perhaps explains the limited anecdotal evidence that the 8 December deal bolstered demand. Given the extended nature of Brexit talks, asking price reductions are likely to remain the key prerequisite for increasing market liquidity in 2018.Long overshadowed by its reputation as a transport hub, substantial regeneration has transformed Victoria into a key central London residential neighbourhood.Indeed, as the current phase of regeneration comes to a conclusion, the connectivity and centrality of Victoria and the wider Westminster area are becoming increasingly recognised as drivers of demand for residential property.The district is located in the heart of prime central London, close to Belgravia and Mayfair. However, residential prices are pitched at a notable discount relative to its two more established neighbours.The average price in the area outlined in figure 1 between January and September 2016 was 1,300 per square foot, according to LonRes. This was 47.3% lower than the equivalent figure of 2,469 in Mayfair and 35.1% below the average of 2,004 in Belgravia.Further underlining the areas longer-term potential, the maximum achieved price of 2,019 in the same period was 56.5% below the maximum recorded in Mayfair and 63.4% lower than Belgravia.Few areas in prime central London offer such good value compared to neighbourhoods that are a five-minute walk away, said Robert Oatley, Knight Franks Victoria and Westminster office head. There has been a huge amount of investment over the last three years and the smart money has woken up to the areas potential.Two other trends will support demand in Victoria and Westminster. The first relates to the adverse regulatory landscape that has impacted the prime central London market in recent years, including stamp duty hikes in the past 18 months for properties worth more than 1.1 million as well as investment properties and second homes. As the regeneration of Victoria and Westminster gathers pace, prices increasingly represent good value versus neighbouring areas, as Robert Oatley tells Tom Bill VICTORIA AND WESTMINSTER MARKET INSIGHT 2017 FIGURE 1 Property prices in Victoria, Westminster and surrounding area Average price, 12 months to August 2016Source: Knight Frank Research1,300 Average price per square foot between January and September 201635.1% Average discount to Belgravia over the same period0.1% Annual growth in November 2016 -4.8% Annual growth in prime central London in November 20162,900 Price per square foot for a best-in-class house on the south side of St James Park BLUE PLAQUESLord Palmerston PoliticianLawrence of Arabia Author, Intelligence Officer Population: 15,427 (Area above)AGE OF HOUSING STOCK Pre-1900 1900-1939 1945-1972 1973-presentFIGURE 2 Victoria and Westminster fact sheetFlatTerracedPROPERTY TYPE1million-plus sales, two years to July 201633%35%9%23%Contains OS data Crown Copyright and database right 2016Sub - 750,000750,000 - 1,000,0001,000,000 - 1,300,0001,300,000 - 2,000,0002,000,000 - 17,000,000 Buckingham PalaceCarlisle PlaceAshley GardensBuckingham GateQueen Anne's GateSt James's ParkWestminster AbbeySmith SquareHorseferry RoadTate BritainPimlicoWestminsterVictoria StationBig Ben and Houses of Parliament Vincent SquareSource: Land Registry / LonRes95%5%Marylebone has matured as a prime central London residential address in the last decade.It follows major investment from the Howard de Walden and Portman Estates, which jointly control nearly 200 acres of Marylebone and the surrounding areas.Higher quality shops, hotels, restaurants, offices and public spaces mean Marylebone is no longer an overlooked prime residential neighbourhood and has joined the ranks of Mayfair to the south and St Johns Wood to the north.However, this regeneration process means price growth patterns have been out of step with longer-established prime central London neighbourhoods in recent years.Marylebone was still an evolving market as the financial crisis hit and didnt see the same magnitude of price growth as other areas, a trend driven by Londons safe-haven status. While annual growth exceeded 20% in markets like Knightsbridge and Kensington in 2010, it peaked at 12.6% in Marylebone.Stronger performance came two years later as Marylebone began to provide comparatively better value. Annual growth of 16.4% in June 2012 was the highest in prime central London.There has been a great regeneration story in Marylebone in recent years, including the attention received by the Chiltern Firehouse, said Christian Lock-Necrews, Knight Franks Marylebone office head.A high-quality new-build residential pipeline also emerged, which cemented the areas reputation and tapped into a trend for Marylebones evolution continues but realistic pricing remains fundamental, as Christian Lock-Necrews tells Tom Bill MARYLEBONE MARKET INSIGHT 2016 Source: Knight Frank ResearchSub-750,000750,001 - 1,250,0001,250,001 - 2,000,0002,000,001 - 3,000,0003,000,000-plus5 million-plus sales Tottenham Court RoadOxford CircusBond Street Hyde ParkRegent's ParkFitzroviaThe Langham HotelCavendish SquareSelfridge'sManchester SquareBaker StreetPortman SquareBloomsburyHolbornFIGURE 1 Property prices in Marylebone and surrounding areas Average sale price, 12 months to April 2016-0.5% Price growth in the year to July 2016 73.1% Price growth between the last low-point in March 2009 and July 20161,594 Average price per square foot in Marylebone in the first six months of 20162.8 Number of active buyers per available property in July 2016 Blue PlaquesWilliam Gladstone Former Prime Minister Charles Dickens Novelist PROPERTY TYPE (1million-plus sales, two years to April 2016) Flat Terraced Population: 43,001AGE OF HOUSING STOCK Pre-1900 1900-1939 1945-1972 1973-presentFIGURE 2 Marylebone fact sheet44%23%14%19%91%9%Source: Land Registry / LonResVictoria and Westminster Market insight 2017Residential Market UpdateThe prime central London sales market continued its move towards recovery mode in December.While average prices fell 0.7% on an annual basis, this was the most modest rate of decline recorded since June 2016. The broadly flat result provides further evidence that the price declines of up to 7% recorded in the middle of last year are bottoming out.Indeed, an analysis of pricing on a more local basis across prime central London shows that the number of areas that recorded a rise in prices during the month continued to grow in December, as figure 2 shows. The number was at its highest monthly level since May 2016.However, there is still no consistent pattern across different price bands.For example, average prices rose 1.9% in the year to December for homes valued at between 5 million and 10 million, compared to a fall of 1.2% for properties priced at between 1 million and 2 million.Higher rates of stamp duty had a more immediate and marked impact at the higher level of the market last year - which led to a quicker response in asking price adjustments and a more rapid recovery this year.While pricing of 1m - 2m homes seemed more resilient in late 2016, there is evidence that prices have instead been adjusting this year.Asking price data underlines this trend, showing that reductions in asking prices have been more prevalent below 2 million in 2017. Some 40% of sub-2 million properties in prime central London underwent an asking price reduction in the year to November 2017, according to data from Rightmove. This compares to some 29% of 5 million-plus properties undergoing a price reduction over the same period.Activity also continued to rise modestly in December. There was a 5% like-for-like increase in sales volumes in the six months to November 2017, LonRes data shows. While we dont expect sales volumes to improve in a meaningful way until the market adjusts fully to higher transaction costs, we explore how the current political backdrop may influence behaviour in the Macroview section on page 2.December 2017Sales volumes increased 5% in the six months to NovemberAverage prices fell 0.7% in the year to DecemberBetween 5 million and 10 million average prices rose 1.9% in the year to December40% of sub-2 million properties underwent a price reduction in the year to November, versus 29% above 5 millionMacroview: The political backdropThe broadly flat result provides further evidence that the falls of up to 7% recorded in the middle of last year are bottoming out. Follow Tom at @TomBill_KFFor the latest news, views and analysis on the world of prime property, visit Global Briefing or @kfglobalbriefAREAS OF PRIME CENTRAL LONDON RETURN TO POSITIVE GROWTHAverage prices were 0.7% down in the year to December after bottoming out at the start of 2017, says Tom BillRESIDENTIAL RESEARCHPRIME CENTRALLONDON SALES INDEXFIGURE 1 Higher value property prices outperform Annual growth by price band in the second half of 2017Source: Knight Frank Research Source: Knight Frank Research / LonResFIGURE 2 More markets return to positive growth Markets reporting price growth vs price declinesTOM BILL Head of London Residential Research-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%Jul-17Aug-17Sep-17Oct-17Nov-17Dec-17-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%20102011201220132014201520162017SDLT reformAreas reporting negative growthAreas reporting positivegrowthThe prime central London sales index is based on repeat valuations of second-hand stock and does not include new-build property, although units from completed developments are included over time. Sub 1m 1m to 2m 2m to 5m 5m to 10m 10m-plusBethnal GreenShoreditchStepney GreenWhitechapelAldgate EastFenchurch StreetWappingLondon BridgeBlackfriars BridgeBank of EnglandMoorgateLiverpool St BarbicanClerkenwellSt. Pauls CathedralTower of London CITY AND ALDGATE MARKET INSIGHT 2017 Source: Knight Frank ResearchFIGURE 1 Property prices in Aldgate and surrounding area Average price, 12 months to October 2016Source: Knight Frank Research / Land RegistryFIGURE 2 City and Aldgate fact sheetPrice growth in the year to September 2016 E1 3.4%E2 5% Price growth in the five years to September 2016 E1 72.4%E2 57.6% Maximum achieved price 2015: 4.7 million Source: Land Registry / LonRes 2016: 7.7 million (Area in figure 1) Average achieved price 2015: 544,112 Source: Land Registry 2016: 579,484 (Area in figure 1)Population: 131,648 (Area above)PROPERTY TYPE500,000-plus sales, two years to October 2016 BLUE PLAQUES Dr Thomas Barnardo PhilanthropistDr Samuel Johnson Author, Lexicographer Pre-19001900-19391945-19721973-presentAGE OF HOUSING STOCK 19%FlatTerraced92%8%9%33%39%n Sub-385,000n 385,000 - 450,000n 450,000 - 575,000n 575,000 - 775,000n 775,000-plusCity and Aldgate market insight 2017Prime Central London Sales Index December 2017Contains OS data Crown Copyright and database right 2017Charing CrossBond StreetOxford StreetTottenham Court RoadLeicester SquareSohoSt JamessSquareGreen ParkSt James's ParkBuckingham PalaceHyde ParkPark LaneRegent StreetCurzon StreetMount StreetGrosvenor SquareBerkeley SquareHyde Park CornerW1JSW1YW1SW1JW1KW1KSW1YW1SSW1ASW1AMAYFAIR AND ST JAMESS RESIDENTIAL MARKET INSIGHT 2017FIGURE 1 Residential property prices in Mayfair, St Jamess and surrounding area Recent pricing evidence, two years to August 2017Source: Knight Frank Research / Land Registry / LonResFIGURE 2 Mayfair fact sheet Population: 15,649BLUE PLAQUES Benjamin Franklin Statesman, Scientist Rudyard Kipling Poet, Author AGE OF HOUSING STOCK l Sub-2.5ml 2.5m to 5ml 5m to 10ml 10m to 20ml 20m-plusPre-19001900-19391945-19721973-19992000-present50%12%12%14%12%SALES BY PROPERTY TYPE 1,000,000-plus sales, two years to April 2017 FlatTerraced 7%93%Source: Knight Frank Research / Land RegistrySource: Knight Frank Research / Valuation Office AgencyPCL market update There has been a steady recovery in transaction volumes in prime central London in 2017 as asking price reductions stimulate demand. The number of exchanges was 5% higher in the first seven months of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016. However, the process has not taken place in a uniform way across all markets and price sensitivity remains high. Price declines continue to show evidence of bottoming out. Prices fell -0.2% in August and annual growth was trimmed to -5.4%, which was the lowest rate since November 2016.Harvey Cyzer, Mayfair Office Head Our view remains that buyers have become more phlegmatic over the course of the year regarding issues such as Brexit and stamp duty as there is a desire to get on with their lives. Buyers are still paying good prices for best-in-class property and turnkey apartments are performing strongly. There remain positives in the marketplace, Mayfair is still a world-renowned destination and other factors such as currency fluctuations still entice a wide range of buyers to the area.Mayfair market insight 2016Prime Country House IndexMarylebone market insight 2016THE DEMAND RECOVERY THE THREE-TIER LETTINGS MARKET BREXIT AND FINANCIAL SERVICESLONDON RESIDENTIAL REVIEWAUTUMN 2017RESIDENTIAL RESEARCHLondon Review Autumn 2017
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