residential real estate market...

Residential Real Estate MarketUpdate

Real Estate Market Drivers

Consumer Confidence

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

IND

EX

, 1

00

=1

98

5

SERIES: Consumer ConfidenceSOURCE: The Conference Board

SERIES: Consumer ConfidenceSOURCE: The Conference Board

Unemployment Rates

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14% CA US

SERIES: Unemployment RateSOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Dept.SERIES: Unemployment Rate

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Dept.

Job Growth

1.2%

1.6%

1.6%

1.7%

2.2%

2.3%

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

2.8%

2.8%

2.9%

3.6%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%

Ventura

Los Angeles

Bakersfield

Stockton

San Diego

Inland Empire

Fresno MSA

San Francisco

Oakland

Modesto

Orange

Sacramento

San Jose

SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

Unemployment by CA Metro

3.2%

3.8%

4.1%

4.4%

4.7%

5.2%

5.4%

5.5%

6.2%

7.5%

7.5%

8.3%

9.2%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%

San Francisco

San Jose

Orange County

Oakland

San Diego

Los Angeles

Sacramento

Ventura

Inland Empire

Modesto

Stockton MSA

Fresno MSA

Bakersfield

SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

CA Home Sales vs. CA Population

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

1982 1990 1998 2006 2014

Existing Home Sales Population

*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

Existing Home Sales (SFH, Condo/Townhomes)

Population (000)

SERIES: Sales of Existing Homes, CA Population

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF

REALTORS®, Moody’s Analytics, Census Bureau

Inventory

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Single Family Multi-Family

65K “Missing” New Units

Household Growth:

165,000/yr.

SERIES: New Housing Permits

SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board

Most Underbuilt Counties in California

381,300

174,833 162,740127,542 141,162

95,245 98,149 105,58666,054

44,772

88,134

35,426 44,92318,141

40,43414,901 18,108 31,255

6,349 10,8900

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

New Jobs vs. New Permits (2010-2015)

Jobs

Permits

SOURCE: California Employment Development Department, Construction Industry Research Board

Fewer Units Selling Since the Great Recession

SERIES: Percent of existing single-family homes being sold SOURCE: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Moody’s Analytics, C.A.R.

Housing Turnover Rate (Single-Family Homes only)

4.2%

4.8%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

CA US

SERIES: Percent of existing single-family homes being sold SOURCE: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Moody’s Analytics, C.A.R.

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12 All Sellers

Years Owned Before Selling: Historic Highs

SERIES: 2016 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Boomers Not Selling at Retirement

Do you plan to sell your current home when you retire?

Yes, 36%

No, 64%

SERIES: 2016 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Tri-Valley Inventory – 2008 to 2016

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Danville San Ramon Dublin Livermore Pleasanton

Avg. listings per year:Livermore: 1,000

Danville: 1,100San Ramon: 730Dublin: 475Pleasanton: 850

SOURCE: Bay East Association of REALTORS®

1,498

366 -

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Fremont Newark Union City

Tri-Cities Inventory – 2008 to 2016

Avg. listings per year:Fremont: 1,300Newark: 270Union City: 360


1,284

625

140 0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Castro Valley Hayward San Leandro San Lorenzo

Central County Inventory – 2009 to 2016

Avg. listings per year:Castro Valley: 600Hayward: 1,280San Leandro: 700San Lorenzo: 190


Sales Prices

Bay Area Out-Migration

SERIES: Net Domestic MigrationSOURCE: California Department of Finance, E6 Population Estimates

-21,793

-6,254 -5,737

-3,048

203 2711,768 1,862

6,375

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

Santa Clara San Mateo Alameda San

Francisco

Marin Napa Sonoma Solano Contra

Costa

Out-Migration by County, 2015 & 2016

Housing Affordability Drives Out-Migration

SERIES: Net Domestic Migration & Median Home PricesSOURCE: California Department of Finance, E6 Population Estimates; & CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

$1,010,000

$1,216,750

$800,000

$1,360,500

$1,050,000

$637,500 $578,000

$380,000

$569,000

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

Santa Clara San Mateo Alameda San

Francisco

Marin Napa Sonoma Solano Contra

Costa

Out-Migration by County, 2015 & 2016

Tri-Valley Median Sales Prices – 2001 to 2016

$718,725

$-

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Danville San Ramon Dublin Pleasanton Livermore


Livermore SFR Sales by Price Range – 2016

0

9

54

195

305

185

93

74

124

15

6

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

< 300k

$300k-399k

$400k-499k

$500k-599k

$600k-699k

$700k-799k

$800k-899k

$900k-999k

$1m-1.49m

$1.5m-1.99m

$2m +

Median Sales Price: $718,725


$948,750

$732,250

$778,000

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Tri-Cities Median Sales Prices – 2001 to 2016


$748,222

$583,125

$543,630

$-

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Central County Median Sales Prices – 2001 to 2016


Condo / Townhome Sales Prices – 2001 to 2016

$632,750

$541,750

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Dublin Pleasanton Livermore


Median Sales Price Change – 2002 to 2016

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Danville Dublin Livermore Pleasanton San Ramon

Median Sales Price Change – 2002 to 2016

12%

7%

22%

19%

-4%

-2%

-14%

-5%

8%

-6%

-2%

24%

12%

7%6%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Livermore

Condo / Townhome Price Change – 2002 to 2016

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Dublin Livermore Pleasanton


Condo / Townhome Price Change – 2002 to 2016

10%7%

18%20%

-1%

-6%

-26% -24%

-10%

7%

15%

40%

15%12%

8%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Livermore


Sales Prices: Livermore vs. East Bay

Rank Community Median Sales Price

1 Alamo $1,630,000

5 Danville $1,215,750

6 Berkeley $1,127,500

7 Pleasanton $1,036,375

8 San Ramon $1,026,250

9 Walnut Creek $999,500

10 Dublin $954,215

11 Fremont $948,750

12 Alameda $934,500

14 El Cerrito $798,725

15 Union City $778,000

16 Castro Valley $748,222

18 Oakland $735,188

19 Newark $732,250

20 Livermore $718,725

Sales Activity

Tri-Valley Sales – 2008 to 2016

362 460

1,029

453

604 609 651 624 655 632 614

868 959

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Danville San Ramon Dublin Pleasanton Livermore


1,526

1,248

330245

451344

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Tri-Cities Sales – 2008 to 2016


547 420

1,239

925 892

573

282 162 -

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Central County Sales – 2008 to 2016


Tri-Valley Condo Sales – 2008 to 2016

238

308283

322 324346 337

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Dublin Livermore Pleasanton


Conclusions

For more information

David StarkPublic Affairs Director

Bay East Association of REALTORS®

Telephone: (925) 730–4068

Email: [email protected]

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