Research for a World in Transition

Detlof von Winterfeldt

Director, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Centennial Professor of Operational Research, LSE

ETH ZuerichNovember 30, 2009

IIASA: A Global Research Institute

InternationalInternationalIndependentInterdisciplinaryIntegratedIntegrated ___________________Systems Analysis

Schloss Laxenburg, Austria

Home of IIASA since 1972

IIASA Statistics

150 Researchers (100 FTEs)100 th t ff b100 other staff membersEUR 16.4 million budget50/50 membership fees and external funds17 national members17 national members50% of world population

Contents

1. Global Challenges: 19722. IIASA’s early days3 Global Challenges: 20103. Global Challenges: 20104. IIASA’s New Strategy

Th E l 70The Early 70s

Sources: nuclearweaponarchive.org, The Guardian

Sources: US Dept of Interior, IIASA

Examples of Early Research

1978 1981 1986 19901983

Cleaning the Air in Europe

Source: IIASA

Climate change research at IIASAClimate change research at IIASA

World Population: 6.8 bn (2009) Projected 9.1 bn (2050)

Nobel Prize Winners

Global ChallengesGlobal Challenges1.02 billion people are 25,000 children die

undernourished worldwide in 2009

each day due to poverty (UNICEF)

(FAO) 80% of humanity lives 1.1 billion people have y

on less than $10 a day (World Bank)

1.1 billion people have inadequate access to water (UNHDP) y ( )to water (UNHDP)

1.6 billion people are ith t t

Average temperatures without access to electricity

predicted to increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C by 2100 (IPCC)

R h f Ch i W ldResearch for a Changing World

Food andFood and Water

Poverty and

Equity

Energy and

Climate EquityChange

R h f Ch i W ldResearch for a Changing World

Food andFood and Water

Poverty and

Equity

Energy and

Climate EquityChange

Countries Vulnerable to Food InsecurityInsecurity

Source: IIASA

U d i h d P l iUndernourished People inDeveloping Countries, 1969 – 2007p g ,

Source: FAO

S F d Th Sh i ki C dSea Food: The Shrinking Cod

Source: IIASA

Water Shortages

Source: International Water Management Institute

Climate Change, Food, and Water

R h f Ch i W ldResearch for a Changing World

Food and WaterWater

P tEnergy Poverty and

Equity

Energy and

Climate Change q yChange

Poverty and Equity

1,000 Billionaires10 000 000 Milli i10,000,000 Millionaires

1,000,000,000 live on less than $1/day

K t D l t Ed tiKey to Development: Education

Source: IIASA

R h f Ch i W ldResearch for a Changing World

Food and WaterWater

Energy Poverty and

Equity

Energy and

Climate ChangeC a ge

Source: IIASA

Source: IIASA

Tackling Climate Change

Source: IIASA

Emission data for IPCCEmission data for IPCC

Current greehouse gasemission trends

Costs of current and futuregreenhouse gas reductions

Comparisons usingdifferent metrics

Co-benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation (China)

Source: IIASA

E i f Cli t ChEconomics of Climate Change

“ Thank you IIASA for your invaluable help during the p gpreparation of my review of the Economics of Climate Change I value IIASA'sChange. I value IIASA s work highly and know it is taken seriously at the highest levels of government in nations around the world.”

Lord Nicholas Stern

R h f Ch i W ldResearch for a Changing World

Food and Water

Poverty d

Energy and and

Equityand

Climate Change

Future Population

Source: IIASA

Gl b li ti RGlobalization Race

Source: Goldman Sachs

Technological Innovations

Source: IIASA

Extreme Events

R h f Ch i W ldResearch for a Changing World

Food and Water

Poverty d

Energy and and

Equityand

Climate Change

Systems Analysis at IIASA

Problem driven and solution orientedIntegrated: Systems linkages andIntegrated: Systems linkages and

dynamic interactionsI t ti l d i t di i liInternational and interdisciplinaryScience basedScience based

P bl D i d S l ti O i t dP bl D i d S l ti O i t dProblem Driven and Solution Oriented: Problem Driven and Solution Oriented: Energy and Food Land ConflictsEnergy and Food Land Conflicts

I t t d S t Li kIntegrated: Systems Linkages

Interdisciplinary and InternationalInterdisciplinary and International

40+ countries 40+ countries

150 scientists

50 YSSP annually

15 Postdocs 15 Postdocs

Science basedScience based

R h f Ch i W ldResearch for a Changing World

Food and Water

Poverty d

Energy and and

Equityand

Climate Change

Increasing Policy Relevance

Linking global research to national policy dagendas

Establishing policy dialogues and g p y grelationshipsCollaborating with local policy andCollaborating with local policy and

scientific institutions

Global connectionsGlobal connectionsGlobal connectionsGlobal connections

Capacity BuildingCapacity Building

Young Scientists Summer Program

"By bringing the world’s y g gmost promising young scientists to spend the summer at IIASAsummer at IIASA, the institute ensures the next generation of scientists is even better equipped to solve the world’s problems ”the world s problems.

Thomas Schelling, Nobel Prize for Economics in 2005

Thank You

More information about IIASA at: www.iiasa.ac.at