research - bank of thailand · profit maximization input demand output supply land allocation share...
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RESEARCH
PROBLEMS
L1: Agricultural land rental act of 1981 L2: Adverse possession law L3: Land and property tax act reform
E1: Price subsidy program E2: Debt moratorium program E3: Agricultural zoning by distance
S1: Land infrastructure development S2: Land allocation program S3: Community land title act S4: Limit land holding
Economies Policies
Infrastructure Policies
Legal Policies
? ?
?
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RESEARCH QUESTIONS POVERTY LAND ABANDONMENT
What are the factors that cause agricultural land abandonment in Thailand?
What measures and policies should be adopted by the Thai government to deal with agriculture land abandonment?
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(CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK)
Profit Maximization
Input Demand Output Supply Land Allocation
Share
Input price, Output price, Physical and Institutional Factors
Policy Implications
HOW will I ANSWER RESEARCH QUESTIONS
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LITERATURE REVIEW
Literature in Thailand
Land use model
Land abandonment
Onchan (1990), Gine (2005), Chankrajang, (2012), Land Institute Foundation (2001)
Muller et al. (2009), Muller and Munroe (2008), Baumann et al. (2011), Zaragozi et al. (2012), Benayas et al. (2007), Prishchepov et al. (2012), Nishihara (2012),
Chambers and Just (1989), Taylor and Monson (1985), Lopez (1984), Coyle (1993), Lubowski et al. (2008), Maligaya and White (1989), Arnade and Kelch (2007), Lacroix and Thomas (2011), Fezzi and Bateman (2011)
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METHODOLOGY Profit optimization based on duality production theory
Input demand
Output supply
Land share
Profit function (1)
(4)
(2)
(3)
For i= 2,…, h
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Empirical Specification Normalized Quadratic Profit Function Statistical Estimation Multivariate Tobit Estimation Technique Seemingly Unrelated Regression
(5)
(6)
(7)
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PP_RICE (E1) PP_SUGARCANE (E1) PP_MACHINE(E1) PP_FERT (E1) PP_LABOR (E1) PP_PEST(E1) PP_CAPITAL (E1) PP_INTEREST(E2) DIST (E3)
Output eqn.1 Y_RICE Output eqn.2 Y_SUGARCANE Input eqn.1 CASH Input eqn.2 FERT Input eqn.3 LABOR Input eqn.4 MACHINE Input eqn.5 PEST Input eqn.6 CAPITAL
Land share eqn.1 S_ABANDON
DEPENDENT VARIABLES INDEPENDENT VARIABLES
S_ABANDON S_SUGARCANE
SOIL (S1) WATER (S1) RIGHT (S2, S3)
SIZE (S4)
RENT (L1) TAX (L3)
POSSESSION (L2)
PP_RICE (E1) PP_SUGARCANE (E1) PP_MACHINE(E1) PP_FERT (E1) PP_LABOR (E1) PP_PEST(E1) PP_CAPITAL (E1) PP_INTEREST(E2) DIST (E3)
SOIL (S1) WATER (S1) SIZE (S4) RIGHT (S2, S3)
A SYSTEM OF NINE EQUATIONS
RENT (L1) TAX (L3)
POSSESSION (L2)
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RESEARCH SCOPE
o Study Site: Khon-Kaen Province o Sampling method: Multi-stage cluster
sampling using probability proportional to size: PPS (Cochran, 1977)
n = (deff * Z2pq) = 767 d2
o Number of sample: 808 of agricultural parcels
- 118 of abandoned parcels - 690 of used parcels
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STUDY RESULTS
THEORITICAL VALIDITY
NO IMPACT VARIABLES Rice Price (E1) Fertilizer price (E1) Household labor price (E1) Machine labor price (E1) Loan Interest rate (E2) Adverse possession law (L2) Land tax (L3)
VARIABLES SIGN SIZE (SQW/SQM) Machine Value (E1) + 3,660.4 SQW Distance to city (E3) - 3.2 SQM Land rental law (L1) + 10.8 SQW. Irrigation (S1) - 8.8 SQW. High quality of soil (S1) - 7.2 SQW. Semi-property right (S2, S3) + 398.8 SQW. Land size (S4) - 3.2 SQM
VARIABLES SIGN SIZE (SQW/SQM) Pesticide price (E1) + 315.2 SQW Sugarcane price (E1) - 41.6 SQM
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MARGINAL EFFECT SCENARIO TEST LAND SIZE:
0, 25, 50, 75, 100, 125
0
.05
.1.1
5.2
Lan
d S
ha
re fo
r A
ban
do
nm
ent
0 25 50 75 100 125Parcel Size
Predictive Margins with 95% CIs
0.2
.4.6
Lan
d S
ha
re fo
r A
ban
do
nm
ent
0 25 50 75 100 125 150Distance to city
Predictive Margins with 95% CIs
DISTANCE TO CITY: 0, 25, 50, 75, 100, 125, 150
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POLICY
IMPLICATIONS
?
L1: Agricultural land rental act of 1981 L2: Adverse possession law L3: Land and property tax act reform
E1: Price subsidy program E2: Debt moratorium program E3: Agricultural zoning by distance
S1: Land infrastructure development S2: Land allocation program S3: Community land title act S4: Limit land holding
Economies Policies
Infrastructure Policies
Legal Policies
√
√
√
√
x
?
?
x
x
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แผนดนไทย ผนน ทใหญกวาง ยงมท รกราง คางอาศย เปนตนเหตใหชาต ขาดก าไร ผลทได ไมดเทาทควร นโยบายรฐบาล ออกมาแก อนาถแท คนยงจน ผลปนปวน ไดครอบครองทผนนอย แตพอควร จะท านา ท าสวน แสนยากเยน กฎหมายตรา จบจอง เจาของท ตองเปนหน หนหนา พายากเขญ ท าประโยชน ในทดน แสนล าเคญ ไมมน า แลงเหน ดนไมด จ าขายท แปลงนอย ใหนายหนา ไมน าพา ทงราง วางเปลาหน ภาคเกษตร หยดชะงกตลอดป ชนชนม รายไดนอย คอยซ าเตม ความไมร แกนแท ของปญหา ขาดต ารา งานวจย ใหผลเสรม กนโยบาย ตราออกมา แตดงเดม ยงคงเพม สาเหต ความยากจน ถงเวลา ทกหนวยฝาย ทเกยวของ หนมามอง ลองศกษา หาเหตผล เหตทเกด ปมประเดน ทวกวน ทกขของชน ทวเขต ประเทศไทย