research and extension group of agri-logistics

Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics

Perspectives and Trends for Perspectives and Trends for Renewable Fuels Transportation in Renewable Fuels Transportation in

BrazilBrazil

José Eduardo Holler BrancoJosé Eduardo Holler Branco

[email protected]

06/18/200706/18/2007

mailto:[email protected]


Outline:

Main Aspects of Alcohol and Biodiesel Supply Chain

Status of Renewable Fuels Brazilian Production

Research and Projects Related to Renewable Fuel Transportation


Brazil Energy MatrixBrazil Energy Matrix

Source: MME (2004)

Petroleum42%

Natural Gas8%

Coal7%

Nuclear2%

Biomass27%

Hydroeletricity14%


Petrodiesel50%

Gasoline27%

Biodiesel (B2)3%

Alcohol Anidro10%

Natural Gas3%

Alcohol Hydrated7%

Brazil Energy Matrix (Transportation Sector) – 2006Brazil Energy Matrix (Transportation Sector) – 2006

Source: MME apud BELTRÃO (2007)


Distributors

Petroleum Products

Alcohol

Final

Consumers

T.R.R.

DieselB2

AlcoholGasoline + Alcohol

75% 25%

T.R.R.

Refinery

PetrochemicalFuel Retailers

TR

Importers

Biodiesel Producer

Alcohol Distillery

Petrofuel and Biofuel Supply Chain in BrazilPetrofuel and Biofuel Supply Chain in Brazil

B100B100

B100

Sugarcane

CrushersGrains

Vegetable Oils

Alcohol

B2

B2

ADAPTED FROM BELTRÃO(2007)


BIODIESELBIODIESEL


ADAPTED FROM BELTRÃO (2007)

Authorized (21)

Waiting for Authorization (40) 5 12SP 2

RJ

2MG

2MA

1TO

4RS

1 2PR

2CE

1PA

3 12MT

2 2GO

BA2 1

2PI

1RO

1

1

Biodiesel PlantsBiodiesel Plants


ADAPTED FROM DORNELLES (2006)

2% (Optional)

2005 - 2007 2008 - 2012 2013 –

2% (Mandatory) 5% (Mandatory)

Potential Market:

800 million liters / year

Potential Market:

1 billion liters / year

Potential Market:

2,4 billion liters / year

Brazilian legislation establishes as compulsory a Brazilian legislation establishes as compulsory a minimum percentage (2%)minimum percentage (2%) of Biodiesel on Diesel of Biodiesel on Diesel

composition starting in 2008composition starting in 2008


ADAPTED FROM JUNQUEIRA (2007)

Company / Government Transport Equipment MixAmérica Latina Logística Locomotives B25Bebidas Ipiranga (Coca-Cola) Trucks B25Coletivos Pádova Bus B2Tocantins State Government Many kinds of vehicles B2Ettusa Bus B2Norsa (Coca-Cola NE) Trucks B2Campinas Local Government Bus B2Nova Odessa Local Government Many kinds of vehicles B2Tetra Pak Trucks B2Cia. Vale do Rio Doce Locomotives B20Viação Itaim Paulista Bus B20Curitiba Local Government Bus B20

Some Brazilian companies and government offices that are Some Brazilian companies and government offices that are already using biodiesel on their fleetalready using biodiesel on their fleet


Estimative ofEstimative of Demand and Supply of Biodiesel in 2008 (B2) Demand and Supply of Biodiesel in 2008 (B2)

Thousand m³

Projections Brazil (2008)

Demand Diesel - ~ 40.000

Demand Biodiesel (2%) - 800 Supply Biodiesel - 2.138

Surplus Biodiesel - 1.338

North (9%)Demand - 72Supply - 136Surplus - 64

Northeast (15%)

Demand - 120Supply - 507Surplus - 387

Southeast (45%)Demand - 360Supply - 638Surplus - 278

South (20%)Demand - 160Supply - 367Surplus - 207

Center-West (11%)

Demand - 88Supply- 490Surplus - 402

Plants

Authorized 21Waiting 40

Total 61

Capacity

Authorized 692

Waiting 1.446

Total 2.138

ADAPTED FROM BELTRÃO (2007)


Source: ROUSSEF (2004)

• Some studies in place related to Biodiesel transportation:Some studies in place related to Biodiesel transportation:– Location of crushers and biodiesel plantsLocation of crushers and biodiesel plants


ALCOHOLALCOHOL


Brazilian Alcohol ProductionBrazilian Alcohol Production

Source: UNICA (2006)

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07

CENTER-SOUTH NORTH-NORTHEAST

Thousand litersThousand liters


Source: ANFAVEA (2006)

Annual Sales of Cars by Fuel TypesAnnual Sales of Cars by Fuel Types

Picture: www.carsale.uol.com.br

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

1.400.000

1.600.000

1.800.000

2.000.000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Alcohol + Flex-Fuel PetroFuels


Source: BRAZIL (2006)

Annual Alcohol Exports Annual Alcohol Exports

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*

Million litersMillion liters


Carburant Alcohol Production Carburant Alcohol Production

2006/2007

2012/2013

17.4 billions liters

35.7 billions liters*

*Estimates made by UNICA (2006)

Future production estimates premises:

New distilleries

Capacity expansion of existing distilleries

Expansion of sugarcane area

New sugarcane varieties

Industrial efficiency increase

(fermentation and distillation process)

Losses decrease


Brazilian Domestic Market Brazilian Domestic Market

14 billions liters

27.5 billions liters*


Future demand estimates premises:

2012/2013 fleet: 26 millions vehicles (cars)• 48% alcohol or flex-fuel vehicles• 52% gasoline vehicles• Flex-Fuel vehicles using 80% of alcohol

Gasoline C• Mix of 75% gasoline and 25% of alcohol (equal to currently mix)

Annual Sales of Flex-Fuel vehicles: • 84% of total fleet

2012/2013

2006/2007


Brazilian Alcohol External Market Brazilian Alcohol External Market

3.1 billions liters

7 billions liters*


Potential Markets for Carburant Alcohol:

North America

(Canada, E.U.A):

• 2 billion liters

Asia

(China, India, Japan, South Korea, Thailand)


Europe:


Others:

•1 billion liters

2012/2013

2006/2007


Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (Center-South) Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (Center-South)

State 2006/2007 2012/213 New plantsSão Paulo 147 182 35Minas Gerais 25 43 18Goiás 15 25 10Paraná 27 31 4Mato Grosso do Sul 9 18 9Mato Grosso 10 10 0Rio de Janeiro 8 9 1Espírito Santo 6 6 0Rio Grande do Sul 1 1 0TOTAL 248 325 77



Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (Center-South) Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (Center-South)


State 2006/2007 2012/213São Paulo 72% 62%Minas Gerais 7% 13%Goiás 4% 7%Paraná 7% 8%Mato Grosso do Sul 3% 5%Mato Grosso 4% 3%Rio de Janeiro 1% 1%Rio Grande do Sul 0% 0%

MTMT

DFDFGOGO

MSMS

PAPA

TOTO

MAMA

PIPI

BABA

MGMG

SPSP

RORO

AMAM

Expansion of Agriculture Frontiers...




Alcohol Exports (Billion liters)Alcohol Exports (Billion liters)

2006/2007 2012/20133.1 7.0

Alcohol Production (Billion liters)Alcohol Production (Billion liters)

2006/2007 2012/201317.4 35.7


Rapid expansion of new agricultural production areas

This scenario demands numerous studies and analysis related to

renewable fuel transportation and logistics:

Estimative of freight costs in the main transportation corridors Best routes for alcohol and biodiesel exporting flows Best location of crushing and biodiesel plantslocation of crushing and biodiesel plants Best level for alcohol stocks Use of pipelines for alcohol transportation Estimative of transportation costs in the international market Best maritime routes for renewable fuels Alcohol storage in both internal and external market . . .


ADAPTED FROM FIGUEIREDO (2006)

Pipeline

Rail

Rail

Ships/Barges

Pipeline

Rail

TrucksTrucks

Quantities

Distances

Transportation Mode Competitiveness

Which is the most adequate mode for the transportation of renewable fuels?


Main Transportation Corridors for Renewable Fuels


ADAPTED FROM TRANSPETRO (2007)


ADAPTED FROM TRANSPETRO (2007)

SCHEDULE FOR THE CONTRUCTION OF INFRA-STRUCTURE

INFRA-STRUCTURE

A – PIPELINE REPLAN – ILHA A – PIPELINE REPLAN – ILHA D’ÁGUAD’ÁGUA

B – PIPELINE – TIETÊ WATERWAYB – PIPELINE – TIETÊ WATERWAY

C – PIPELINE UBERABA - REPLANC – PIPELINE UBERABA - REPLAN

D – PIPELINE SENADOR CANEDO – D – PIPELINE SENADOR CANEDO – REPLAN AND GUARAREMA - SÃO REPLAN AND GUARAREMA - SÃO SEBASTIÃOSEBASTIÃO

E – PIPELINE REPAR – CAMPO E – PIPELINE REPAR – CAMPO GRANDE - CUIABÁGRANDE - CUIABÁ


ADAPTED FROM ANTF (2007)


THANKS!

José Eduardo Holler Branco

ESALQ-LOG (Research and Extension Group of Agri-Logistics) http://log.esalq.usp.br/

e-mail: [email protected]

Phone: 55-19-3429-4582

http://log.esalq.usp.br/


SOURCE: UDOP (2007)New Plants Installed

Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (SP) Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (SP)



Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (GO) Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (GO)



Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (MT) Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (MT)



Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (MS) Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (MS)



Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (PR) Brazilian Alcohol Distilleries (PR)


• MME (2004) – Ministério de Minas e Energia. (Brazil) Available on: http://www.mme.gov.br/• BELTRÃO (2007) – Sérgio Tadeu Cabral Beltrão Available on: http://log.esalq.usp.br/home/pt/seminario.php?show=2007• DORNELLES (2006) – Ricardo Dornelles Available on: http://www.anp.gov.br/doc/biodiesel/GT%20BIODIESEL%20%201%C2%AA%20reuni%C3%A3o

%2018%20mai%2006%20-%20MME.pdf• JUNQUEIRA (2007) – Guilherme Junqueira Available on: http://log.esalq.usp.br/home/pt/seminario.php?show=2007• ROUSSEF (2004) – Dilma Roussef Available on: www.biodiesel.gov.br• ANFAVEA (2006) – Associação Nacional dos Fabricantes de Veículos Automotores Available on: www.anfavea.com.br• UNICA (2006) – União da Indústria de Cana-de_Açúcar Available on: www.unica.com.br• TRANSPETRO (2006) - Transpetro Available on: www.transpetro.com.br

• FIGUEIREDO (2006) – R. Figueiredo Available on: http://joomla.coppead.ufrj.br/port/index.php?option=com_docman&task=catview&gid=56&Itemid=204

• ANTF – Associação Nacional dos Transportadores Ferroviários Available on: www.antf.org.br• UDOP – União dos Produtores de Bioenergia Available on: www.udop.com.br

http://www.mme.gov.br/



http://log.esalq.usp.br/home/pt/seminario.php?show=2007



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