Report fromReport from MSTRSMSTRSReport from Report from MSTRS MSTRS MOVES Review WorkgroupMOVES Review Workgroup

Clean Air Act Advisory Committee MeetingClean Air Act Advisory Committee Meetingy gy gJanuary 12, 2011January 12, 2011

John John KoupalKoupalDirector, Air Quality & Modeling CenterDirector, Air Quality & Modeling Center

U S EPA Offi f T t ti d Ai Q litU S EPA Offi f T t ti d Ai Q litU.S. EPA Office of Transportation and Air QualityU.S. EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality

What is MOVES?What is MOVES?What is MOVES?What is MOVES?

MoMotortor VVehicleehicle EEmissionmission SSimulatorimulatorMoMotor tor VVehicle ehicle EEmission mission SSimulatorimulator Estimates Estimates emissions emissions & energy use from all & energy use from all

dd lti l llti l lonon--road sources over road sources over multiple scalesmultiple scalesReplaces MOBILE6.2 as EPA’s official Replaces MOBILE6.2 as EPA’s official onon--

road emissions road emissions model for model for SIP SIP and and conformity determinationsconformity determinations

22

Why Does EPAWhy Does EPA Develop ModelsDevelop Models??Why Does EPA Why Does EPA Develop ModelsDevelop Models??

Mandated by Mandated by Clean Clean Air Air ActActyy Must Must maintain & update emission factors every 3 yearsmaintain & update emission factors every 3 years EPA must provide tools for state and local air agenciesEPA must provide tools for state and local air agencies

Analyses required for new rulesAnalyses required for new rules Analyses required for new rulesAnalyses required for new rules Quantify emission baseline & Quantify emission baseline & reductionsreductions Provide input for air quality, cost/benefit analyses Provide input for air quality, cost/benefit analyses p q y, yp q y, y

“What“What--If” analysesIf” analyses Understand mobile source emission trends and their Understand mobile source emission trends and their

contribution to overall inventorycontribution to overall inventorycontribution to overall inventorycontribution to overall inventory Evaluate potential for new national, regional and local Evaluate potential for new national, regional and local

policiespoliciesR it fR it f i ii i d ti it i f tid ti it i f ti

33

Repository of Repository of emissions emissions and activity informationand activity information

Why did EPA develop MOVES?Why did EPA develop MOVES?Why did EPA develop MOVES?Why did EPA develop MOVES?MOBILE series of models obsolete and MOBILE series of models obsolete and

increasingly difficult to maintainincreasingly difficult to maintainNeeded platform that allowed easier Needed platform that allowed easier pp

updates with new emissions, fleet and updates with new emissions, fleet and activity dataactivity data

Wanted Wanted to develop platform that could to develop platform that could include all mobile sourcesinclude all mobile sources

U.S. National Research Council U.S. National Research Council recommendationsrecommendations

44

Why MOVES? continuedWhy MOVES? continuedWhy MOVES? continuedWhy MOVES? continued In “Modeling Mobile Source Emissions” (2000), In “Modeling Mobile Source Emissions” (2000), g ( )g ( )

National Research Council made several National Research Council made several recommendations to EPA to improve modeling:recommendations to EPA to improve modeling: Support for smallerSupport for smaller--scale (project level) analysis scale (project level) analysis pppp (p j ) y(p j ) y Improved characterization of high emitters, heavyImproved characterization of high emitters, heavy--

duty vehicles and duty vehicles and nonroadnonroad sourcessources Improved characterization of particulate matter andImproved characterization of particulate matter and Improved characterization of particulate matter and Improved characterization of particulate matter and

toxicstoxics Improved model evaluation and uncertainty analysisImproved model evaluation and uncertainty analysis Improved ability to interface with other modelsImproved ability to interface with other models Improved ability to interface with other modelsImproved ability to interface with other models

These recommendations became the primary These recommendations became the primary objectives for MOVESobjectives for MOVES

55

Pollutants in MOVESPollutants in MOVESPollutants in MOVESPollutants in MOVES HCHC (THC, NMHC, NMOG, TOG, VOC)(THC, NMHC, NMOG, TOG, VOC) HC HC (THC, NMHC, NMOG, TOG, VOC)(THC, NMHC, NMOG, TOG, VOC) COCO NONO (NO NO(NO NO22)) NONOxx (NO, NO(NO, NO22)) NHNH33 SOSO22 SOSO22 PMPM10,2.510,2.5 (OC, EC, sulfate, brake, tire)(OC, EC, sulfate, brake, tire) GHG (GHG (COCO CHCH NN O)O) GHG (GHG (COCO22, CH, CH44, N, N22O)O) Toxics Toxics EnergyEnergy (total petroleum fossil)(total petroleum fossil)

66

Energy Energy (total, petroleum, fossil)(total, petroleum, fossil)

EmissionsEmissions Processes in MOVESProcesses in MOVESEmissions Emissions Processes in MOVESProcesses in MOVES

RunningRunning RunningRunning StartStart Extended Idle (“Extended Idle (“hotelinghoteling”)”) Evaporative Evaporative

Permeation, Vapor Venting, Liquid LeaksPermeation, Vapor Venting, Liquid Leaks RefuelingRefueling RefuelingRefueling

Vapor loss, SpillageVapor loss, Spillage CrankcaseCrankcase Tire WearTire Wear Brake Brake WearWear

77

MOVES is Based on Latest DataMOVES is Based on Latest DataMOVES is Based on Latest DataMOVES is Based on Latest Data

EPA reviewed data from hundreds ofEPA reviewed data from hundreds of EPA reviewed data from hundreds of EPA reviewed data from hundreds of thousands of cars and light trucks thousands of cars and light trucks Inspection/Maintenance, RSD, historical lab dataInspection/Maintenance, RSD, historical lab data Inspection/Maintenance, RSD, historical lab dataInspection/Maintenance, RSD, historical lab data

Landmark study of gasoline PM in Kansas City Landmark study of gasoline PM in Kansas City First use of portable emission measurementFirst use of portable emission measurement First use of portable emission measurement First use of portable emission measurement

systems (PEMS) to capture onsystems (PEMS) to capture on--road heavyroad heavy--duty truck emissionsduty truck emissionsduty truck emissionsduty truck emissions

New data drives updated emission estimatesNew data drives updated emission estimates

88

Example Example NONOxx Results Results (MOVES2009)(MOVES2009) Fulton County (Atlanta) - NOx

On-road data on heavy trucks shows higher emissions than MOBILE6 estimated from cert data

y ( )

30,000

40,000

Tons

MOVES

MOVES

M6HDExtended Idle=34%

Extended idle emissions become significant share of heavy-duty inventory in future

0

10,000

20,000

Ann

ual

MOVES

M6M6HD

LDLD

0

2008 2015 2020

Salt Lake County - NOxCook County (Chicago) - NOx Salt Lake County NOx

15,000

20,000

25,000

Tons

MOVES

MOVES

M6HD

Cook County (Chicago) NOx

60,000

80,000

100,000

Tons

MOVES

MOVES

M6HD

0

5,000

10,000

Ann

ual T

MOVES

M6M6

HD

LDLD

0

20,000

40,000

Ann

ual T

MOVES

MOVES

M6M6

HD

LDLD

0

2008 2015 20200

2008 2015 2020

Fulton County - PM2.51500 MOVES

Example PMExample PM2.5 2.5 Results Results (MOVES2009)(MOVES2009)

Kansas City program found high gas PM emissions esp. at cold temps

New data on heavy trucks shows 600

900

1200

nual

Ton

s

MOVESHD

New data on heavy trucks shows higher deterioration than MOBILE6

MOVES accounts for impact of vehicle speed – MOBILE did not 0

300

600

Ann MOVES

M6M6M6

HD

LDLD

2008 2015 2020

Salt Lake County - PM2.5600

Cook County - PM2.54000

300

450

600

Ton

sMOVES

MOVES

HD3000

4000

Ton

s

MOVES

MOVES

HD

150

300A

nnua

l

MOVES

M6M6M6

HD

LDLD

1000

2000

Ann

ual

MOVES

MOVES

M6M6

M6

HD

HD

LDLD 0

2008 2015 20200

2008 2015 2020

LDLD

Modal “Binning” ApproachModal “Binning” ApproachModal Binning ApproachModal Binning Approach

Advancement required to meet emergingAdvancement required to meet emerging Advancement required to meet emerging Advancement required to meet emerging analysis needsanalysis needs

Any driving pattern can be modeledAny driving pattern can be modeled Any driving pattern can be modeled Any driving pattern can be modeled Adds major flexibility compared to MOBILEAdds major flexibility compared to MOBILE

Allows direct use of data from many Allows direct use of data from many yysourcessources Laboratory, I/M programs, RSDLaboratory, I/M programs, RSD

Independent Independent validation has shown good validation has shown good results even for results even for macroscalemacroscale applicationsapplications

1111

HC Emission Rates By BinSource Bin: LDV Gasoline / 1996 MY

100

0-3 year old 4-5 year old

(g/h

r)

< 25 mph 25 - 50 mph > 50 mph

10

sion

Rat

e (

1

ing dle

<0

0-3

3-6

6-9 12 12 <0

0-3

3-6

6-9 12 18 24 30 >30

<6 12 18 24 30 >30

Mea

n Em

iss

0

brak

in id < 0 3 6 9-1

> 1 < 0 3 6 9-1

12-1

18-2

24-3 >3 < 6-1

12-1

18-2

24-3 >3

HC

M

0VSP (KW/tonne)

Distribution of Operating Time by BinLi ht D t C d T kLight-Duty Cars and Trucks

0.30

Rural Freeway Urban FreewayRural Arterial Urban Arterial

0.25

g Ti

me

< 25 mph 25 - 50 mph > 50 mph

0.15

0.20

f Ope

ratin

g

0.05

0.10

Frac

tion

of

0.00

aking idle < 0

0-3

3-6

6-9

9-12

> 12 < 0

0-3

3-6

6-9

9-12

12-1

818

-24

24-3

0>3

0<

66-

1212

-18

18-2

424

-30

>30

bra 1 1 2 1 1 2

VSP (KW/tonne)

COCO22 Impact of Traffic SmoothingImpact of Traffic Smoothing

650 00

700.00

Transient driving Smooth driving

550.00

600.00

650.00

450.00

500.00

O2

(g/m

ile)

Transient Driving

300 00

350.00

400.00CO g

S th D i i

200.00

250.00

300.00

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Smooth Driving

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

average speed bin (mph)

MOVES HistoryMOVES HistoryMOVES HistoryMOVES History

2000 - NRC recommends complete overhaul of EPA mobile source models2000 - NRC recommends complete overhaul of EPA mobile source models

2001 - EPA publishes white paper on MOVES for stakeholder and peer review - EPA begins developing design with input from stakeholder working group

2002 - MOVES “shootout” identifies best practices for modal modeling

2005 - First version of MOVES released – focused on energy and GHG only- Kansas City PM study completed

2007 - Demonstration version of full on-road MOVES released Established new FACA workgroup to review criteria/toxic emission inputs- Established new FACA workgroup to review criteria/toxic emission inputs

2009 - Draft (MOVES2009) released in April- Final (MOVES 2010) released in December

2010 - MOVES2010a (reflects 2012-2016 LD GHG rule)

MOVES Review WorkgroupMOVES Review WorkgroupMOVES Review WorkgroupMOVES Review Workgroup

Formed by MSTRSFormed by MSTRS toto provide input to EPA onprovide input to EPA on Formed by MSTRS Formed by MSTRS to to provide input to EPA on provide input to EPA on MOVES MOVES developmentdevelopment

15 meetings 200715 meetings 2007--20102010gg Workgroup members represented wide range of Workgroup members represented wide range of

stakeholdersstakeholders Reviewed and provided comments on MOVESReviewed and provided comments on MOVES Reviewed and provided comments on MOVES Reviewed and provided comments on MOVES

inputs and algorithmsinputs and algorithms Recommendations were incorporated in subsequent Recommendations were incorporated in subsequent

i f MOVESi f MOVESversions of MOVESversions of MOVES MSTRS voted to forward to CAAACMSTRS voted to forward to CAAAC

1616

Workgroup Final Comments & Workgroup Final Comments & R d tiR d tiRecommendations Recommendations (1 of 2)(1 of 2)

MOVES o erall str ct re isMOVES o erall str ct re is solidsolidMOVES overall structure is MOVES overall structure is solidsolid Provides good deal of flexibilityProvides good deal of flexibility

MOVES validation and corroboration workMOVES validation and corroboration workMOVES validation and corroboration work MOVES validation and corroboration work has been has been helpful and should continuehelpful and should continue EPA has compared MOVES results to a variety of EPA has compared MOVES results to a variety of

i d d t d t t d thi d d t d t t d thindependent datasets; recommends other independent datasets; recommends other organizations undertake this as wellorganizations undertake this as well

EPA should budget funds for ongoing improvementEPA should budget funds for ongoing improvementContinue to obtain feedback from a variety Continue to obtain feedback from a variety

of users, and incorporate this feedback of users, and incorporate this feedback into modelinto model

1717

into modelinto model

Workgroup Final Comments & Workgroup Final Comments & R d tiR d tiRecommendations Recommendations (2 of 2)(2 of 2)

EPA EPA needs to continue model needs to continue model updatesupdates Emission rates, activity profiles, as well as featuresEmission rates, activity profiles, as well as features

N l ( 2012N l ( 2012 2016 LD GHG)2016 LD GHG) New rules (e.g. 2012New rules (e.g. 2012--2016 LD GHG)2016 LD GHG) Expanded air toxicsExpanded air toxics Reduce model run time Reduce model run time

EPA needs longEPA needs long--term data collection term data collection planplan EPA needs to budget and plan for continued data EPA needs to budget and plan for continued data

collectioncollectioncollectioncollection EPA needs to seek data from other sources as wellEPA needs to seek data from other sources as well Focus on known uncertainties in the modelFocus on known uncertainties in the model

1818

How EPA is addressing workgroup How EPA is addressing workgroup t M d l V lid tit M d l V lid ticomments: Model Validationcomments: Model Validation

Comparison of MOVES fuel consumption Comparison of MOVES fuel consumption results vs. fuel tax dataresults vs. fuel tax data

Di t h k f GHG i iDi t h k f GHG i i Direct check of GHG emissionsDirect check of GHG emissions Provides top down check on model fleet, activity data Provides top down check on model fleet, activity data

that applies to criteria as wellthat applies to criteria as wellComparison of emission rates vs. Comparison of emission rates vs.

independent data independent data Multiple citiesMultiple cities RSD I/MRSD I/M dynodyno datadata Multiple cities Multiple cities –– RSD, I/M, RSD, I/M, dynodyno datadata

Report to be published Report to be published Air quality/dispersion studies in progressAir quality/dispersion studies in progress

1919

q y p p gq y p p g

National Fuel Consumption Comparison

Tax Data Final MOVES

120

160

ns

80

on G

allo

n Gasoline

40Billi

o

Diesel0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Year

LDV LDV NOxNOx FuelFuel--Based Emission Rates by AgeBased Emission Rates by AgeMOVES vs Chicago RSD (2004)MOVES vs Chicago RSD (2004)MOVES vs. Chicago RSD (2004)MOVES vs. Chicago RSD (2004)

14

10

12 Chicago RSD

MOVES 2010

8

/kg

fuel

)

4

6

NO

x (g

/

2

4

00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Age

LDV LDV NOxNOx FuelFuel--Based Emission Rates by AgeBased Emission Rates by AgeMOVES vs. Atlanta RSD (2008)MOVES vs. Atlanta RSD (2008)( )( )

30

25Atlanta RSD

MOVES 2010

15

20

g/kg

fuel

)

10

NO

x (g

5

00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Age

MOVES Calendar Year 2005 HDD NOx vs. SpeedMOVES Calendar Year 2005 HDD NOx vs. Speedindependent verification vs. CRC E-55 results

120

140

DRAFT MOVESE55 HHD 56000 lb

100

120

]

Final MOVES

60

80

NO

x [g

/mile

]

20

40

00 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Average speed [mph]

How EPA is addressing workgroup How EPA is addressing workgroup t M d l U d tt M d l U d tcomments: Model Updatescomments: Model Updates

Database approach facilitates faster Database approach facilitates faster updates in response to new dataupdates in response to new data

Updates requires careful consideration of Updates requires careful consideration of the policy implications and technicalthe policy implications and technicalthe policy implications and technical the policy implications and technical justification for a model change. justification for a model change.

EPA will coordinate official releases taking EPA will coordinate official releases taking into account the timing needs of SIP analyses into account the timing needs of SIP analyses

2424

How EPA is addressing workgroup How EPA is addressing workgroup comments: Long Term Data Collectioncomments: Long Term Data Collection Rolling out new advancements in capturing realRolling out new advancements in capturing real worldworld Rolling out new advancements in capturing realRolling out new advancements in capturing real--world world

emissionsemissions Evaporative Leak Detection Study (2008Evaporative Leak Detection Study (2008--10)10)

Method developed to detect high Method developed to detect high evapevap vehicles using RSDvehicles using RSD Confirmed using portable SHEDConfirmed using portable SHED Developing way to apply to much larger RSD datasetsDeveloping way to apply to much larger RSD datasetsp g y pp y gp g y pp y g

Houston Port Drayage Study (2009Houston Port Drayage Study (2009--10)10) First to implement hybrid of RSD and PEMSFirst to implement hybrid of RSD and PEMS

Tier 2 PEMS Study (2010+)Tier 2 PEMS Study (2010+) Tier 2 PEMS Study (2010+)Tier 2 PEMS Study (2010+) RSD conducted at 6 sites around Metro Detroit (~80,000 hits)RSD conducted at 6 sites around Metro Detroit (~80,000 hits) PEMS testing planned on Tier 2s selected based on RSDPEMS testing planned on Tier 2s selected based on RSD

2525

Considering additional cities for 2011/2012Considering additional cities for 2011/2012

Evaporative “Leaker” Field StudyEvaporative “Leaker” Field Study

•• Evaporative vapor emissions Evaporative vapor emissions either contained or leakingeither contained or leakingeither contained, or leakingeither contained, or leaking

•• In collaboration with CRC and In collaboration with CRC and Colorado developingColorado developingColorado, developing Colorado, developing groundbreaking approach to groundbreaking approach to quantifying frequency of quantifying frequency of evapevapleakersleakers

•• Developed method to find Developed method to find evapevapleakers using roadside remote leakers using roadside remote sensingsensingsensingsensing

•• Verified using portable SHED Verified using portable SHED

Houston Port HD Drayage Studyy g y• ~ 4,000 RSD hits on 1,900 trucks entering port• PEMS testing on sample of these, stratified by emission level

RSD equipment

27

PEMS Vehicle ExamplePEMS Vehicle ExamplePEMS Vehicle ExamplePEMS Vehicle ExampleMY 1994 FreightlinerMY 1994 Freightliner

Exhaust System

PM Proportional

Sampler SystemS t h DS Sampler SystemSemtech_DSPM Filters

2828

On‐Road NOx Data – Roundtrip from Port of Houston

29

Visit the MOVES website:Visit the MOVES website:http://www.epa.gov/otaq/moves.htmhttp://www.epa.gov/otaq/moves.htm

Software, technical documentation, conference and meeting Software, technical documentation, conference and meeting , , g, , gpresentations, and other helpful background materialspresentations, and other helpful background materials