repairing the long-term salinity projection model for the colorado river basin april 25-27, 2005...
TRANSCRIPT
Repairing the long-term salinity projection model for the
Colorado River basin
April 25-27, 2005International Salinity Forum
Riverside, California
Agenda
• Issues Addressed
• Our Solutions– Natural Flow Component– Natural Salt Component
• Additional Benefits
• Publications
• Concluding Remarks
Issues Addressed
• The model could not accurately simulate the historical period 1971-1990
• Problems Identified:– Input data inconsistent– A changing natural flow and salt mass
relationship– Limited and out-of-date documentation
Our Solutions
• Re-compute natural flow 1971-2000– Addressing Data Inconsistencies
• Recomputing natural flow from 1971-95
Natural Flow = Historic Flow
+ Consumptive Uses and Losses
+/- Reservoir Regulation
– Addressing Methodological Inconsistencies• RiverWare model computes natural flow
– Ensures consistency
Our Solutions
• Develop a new natural salt model– Nonparametric local linear regression– K-nearest neighbor resampling
• Capture the changing relationship– Based on data from 1971-1995
Additional Benefits
• Better direct new research– understand salt loading resulting from
irrigating agriculture– Changing land use from agriculture to M&I
• Completed peer reviews with journal articles and supporting documentation
• Begun process to move model input data to a secure database
• Involve Basin States during entire process
Publications• Prairie, J., Rajagopalan, B., Fulp, T., and Zagona, E.
(2005). "Statistical Nonparametric Model for Natural Salt Estimation." Journal of Environmental Engineering, 131(1), 130-138.
• Reclamation (1995). “Draft Upper Basin Consumptive Uses and Losses Report as Revised After Peer Review 1971-1995.”
• Clayton, R. (2004). “Upper Colorado River Consumptive Use Determination at CRSS Natural Flow Node Locations CY 1971-1995.” Bureau of Reclamation
• Prairie, J. and Callejo, R. (2005) “Natural Flow And Salt Computation Methods 1971-1995” Bureau of Reclamation
Concluding Remarks
• Reclamation has a working model that we have confidence in and can support
• New salt model can easily be updated• New methods and data in CRSS Salinity
Projection Model fully supported with documentation
• CRSS Salinity Projection Model implemented for 2005 Triennial Review
• Future research targeted to address upcoming issues
Repairing the long-term salinity projection model for the
Colorado River basin
For further information:http://cadswes.colorado.edu/~prairie