renewable energy: strengthening our nation’s economyns2/ae4803/darvizu.pdf · renewable energy:...
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Renewable Energy:Strengthening Our Nation’s Economy
Alternative Energy Technology Innovations:The Coming Economic Boom
May 12-13, 2005Savannah, Georgia
Dr. Dan E. ArvizuDirector, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
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Energy Challenges are Enormous
Economic Growth
Environmental Impact
Energy Security and Reliability
Market Restructuring
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National Predicament
• Very slow renewal of existing infrastructure geared to cheap fuel
• Maintain security of:– Fuel supply– Generating capacity
• We have only today’s technology for 2025• Energy needs will grow
Cars 10 -15 yrsAircraft 20 -30 yrsWind turbines 25 yrsPower plants 40+yrsTrains 30+ yearsElectrical distribution 40+yrsHouses 70+ years
Source: Lord Ron Oxburgh, Royal Dutch Shell
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RejectedEnergy
U.S. Energy Flows98
.2 Q
uadr
illio
n Bt
u Fuels61%Fuels61%
Electricity39%
Buildings40%
Industry33%
Transportation27%
62%
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Technology-based Solutions:There is no one silver bullet, we need many
• Energy efficiency• Renewable energy• Non-polluting transportation fuels • Separation and capture of CO2 from fossil fuels• Next generation of nuclear fission and fusion technology• Transition to smart, resilient, distributed energy systems coupled with
pollution-free energy carriers, e.g. hydrogen and electricity
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Renewable Energy Will Play a Key Role in a More Diverse and Secure
Energy Supply
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Renewable Energy Costs are DecreasingLevelized cents/kWh in constant $20001
Wind
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
PVC
OE
cen
ts/k
Wh
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
40
30
20
10
0
100
80
60
40
20
0
BiomassGeothermal Solar thermal
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
CO
E c
ents
/kW
h
10
8
6
4
2
0
706050403020100
15
12
9
6
3
0
Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2002.ppt)1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data.Updated: October 2002
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Alaska1
California2,096
Colorado229
Hawaii9
Iowa632
Kansas114
Massachusetts1
Michigan2
Minnesota615
Nebraska20
New Mexico267
New York48
North Dakota
66Oregon259
Pennsylvania129
Tennessee29
Texas1,293
Vermont6
Wisconsin53
Wyoming285
Washington244
South Dakota
44
West Virginia66
Arkansas0.1
Idaho0.2
Maine0.1
Montana2
New Hampshire0.1
Oklahoma176
Utah0.2
Illinois81
Ohio7
6770 MW as of 12/31/04 Current cost is 4 to 6¢/kWh in best regimes (unsubsidized)
Wind Energy StatusWind Capacity (MW)
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Solar Energy Status
• Concentrating Solar Power– Nine parabolic
trough plants – 354 MW capacity– 12-14¢/kWh
• Photovoltaics– 340 MW capacity– Price of power
from grid connected PV systems is 20 to 30¢/kWh
PV systems at the Arizona Public Service facility in Prescott, Arizona
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Biomass StatusBiopower• Grid-connected capacity
– 9700 MW direct combustion– 400 MW co-firing
• Biopower electricity prices generally range from 8-12¢/kWh
Biofuels• Biodiesel – 15 million gallons (2002)• Corn ethanol
– 81 commercial plants– 3.4 billion gallons (2004)– ~$1.22/gal
• Cellulosic ethanol*– $2.73/gal
* Not commercially available
Rated at 21 MW and providing the San Francisco Bay Area with baseload capacity, the Tracy Biomass Plant uses wood residues discarded from agricultural and industrial operations.
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Factors Inhibiting Pace and Volume of Renewable Energy Market Entrance
• Capital mobilization• Lack of consistent, stable policies• Electricity pricing: valuing externalities• Further technology advances
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Mobilizing Capital:Creative Business Partnership Models
• Catalyze entrepreneurs
• Enhance strategic partnering
• Attract new corporate entrants
• Invigorate private equity/venture capital
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State Policies are OpeningMarkets for Renewable Energy
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Renewable Electricity StandardsNevada: 15% by 2013, solar 5% of annual
Hawaii: 20% by 2020
Texas:2.7% by 2009
California: 20% by 2017
Colorado: 10% by 2015
New Mexico: 10% by 2011
Arizona: 1.1% by 2007, 60% solar
Iowa: 2% by 1999Minnesota: 19% by 2015*
Wisconsin:2.2% by 2011
New York:24% by 2013
Maine:30%by 2000
MA: 4%by 2009
CT: 10% by 2010
RI: 16%by 2019
Pennsylvania:8% by 2020
NJ: 6.5% by 2008Maryland:7.5% by 2019
18 States + D.C.
*Includes requirements adopted in 1994 and 2003 for one utility, Xcel Energy.
Washington D.C:11% by 2022
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Western Governors’ AssociationClean and Diversified Energy Initiative
• Western U.S is rich with fossil, hydro and renewable energy resources.
• Goal of 30,000 MW of clean energy by 2015, using solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, clean coal technologies and advanced natural gas technologies.
• Goal to increase the efficiency of energy use by 20% by 2020.
• Meet the West’s generation and transmission needs over the next 25 years.
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Create an Electricity Pricing Structure that Values Externalities
• Intangibles have value– Greater value if dealt with in resource
planning– Allow a broader perspective
• Hard to quantify– Has been controversial– No accepted methodology
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The Future for Renewable Energy:A Technology Outlook
WindSolar
Biomass
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Wind OutlookTechnology• DOE Wind Program R&D goals
– 3¢/kWh* in class 4+ wind areas onshore
– 5¢/kWh* for offshore systems• New Technology will
– Expand range of feasible sites – Reduce siting risk – Enhance system value
Policy• State-led RPS • Production Tax CreditMarket Drivers• Natural gas prices• Green purchasing * unsubsidized
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Solar OutlookTechnology DOE Solar Program goals:• Photovoltaics: 6¢/kWh by
2020• Concentrating solar
power/troughs: 5¢/KWh by 2012
Policy • 1000 MW initiative• Western Governors’
Association 30,000 MW by 2020 initiative
• State RPS with solar set asides
Market Drivers• Peak power prices• Green markets
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Biomass Outlook
TechnologyDOE Biomass Program goals:• 5.5¢/kWh by 2010• $1.07/gal bioethanol by 2020PolicyHouse-passed energy bill will
create a renewable fuels standard that reaches 5 billion gallons/year by 2012
Market Drivers• Future outlook for crude oil
prices• Best utilization for biomass –
fuels or electricity
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Technology Roadmaps and Vision to the Future
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LWST Turbines:• 3¢/kWh at 13mph• Electricity Market
2012
Offshore LWST Turbine:• 5 cents/kWh• Shallow/Deep water• Electricity Market• Higher wind Sites
2012 and Beyond
Custom Turbines:• Electricity• H2 production• Desalinate water• Storage• Multi-Market
2030 and Beyond
A Future Vision for Wind Energy Markets
2005
Bulk Power Generator
4-6¢ at 15mph
• Land Based
• Bulk Electricity
• Wind Farms
Future Potential=20% of
Electricity Market
Land Based Electricity Path Transmission Barriers
Cost & Regulatory Barriers
Land or Sea Based:• Hydrogen• Clean Water
Cost & Infrastructure Barriers
Land Based LWSTLarge-Scale
2–5 MW
Offshore Turbines5 MW and Larger
Tomorrow
Offshore Electricity Path
Advanced Applications Path
Today
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Comparison of annual U.S. solar power shipments under the Baseline and Roadmap cases. Shipments in 2030 and 2050 are 2.4 and 5.5 GW for the Baseline case and 19 and 31 GW for the Roadmap case.
Future Technology Directions
• Research on crystalline silicon, thin films, and balance-of-systems components
• Higher-risk, longer-term R&D for all system components that can leapfrog beyond today’s technology
• Partnerships among industry, universities, and national laboratories
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The Biorefinery:The Path Ahead
• A diverse feedstock supply that provides over 1 billion tons of biomass per year
• Equivalent of 3.5 billion barrels of crude oil per year or 55% of current U.S. petroleum demand
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Technologies
Policies Markets• Conventional
energy prices• Green markets
• Incentives & mandates
• High technology• Mass production
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The U.S. Department of Energy’sNational Renewable Energy Laboratorywww.nrel.gov
Golden, Colorado