Renewable Energy Prospects in the CESEC RegionGurbuz Gonul – Director, Country Support and Partnerships Division, IRENA

High-Level Group Meeting onCentral and South Eastern Europe Connectivity (CESEC)

Bucharest, 1 April 2019

2

Global Levelised Cost of Electricity

LCOE reduction in the period2010 - 2017

73%Solar PV

23%Onshore

Wind

Global power capacity additions

Wind and solar PV led the uptake of RE

Solar PV accounted for more than 56% of total RE additional installed capacity in 2017

(MW

)

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Hydropower Wind Solar PV Bioenergy Other Conventional

RE power capacity additions constantly exceed conventional power

RE penetration in heating and transport requires boosted efforts

Progress in the power sector is not being matchedin transport and heating – which together accountfor 80% of global energy consumption.

Socio-economic benefits of renewable energy

+ 1 %

+ 1.0 %

+ 52 USD trillion

+ 15 %

Source: IRENA, Global Energy Transformation: A Roadmap to 2050, 2018

Today

127 GWof RE could be

implemented in a cost-competitive way.

By 2030

620 GWWind and Solar PV

cost-competitive potential

Cost-competitive Solar PV and Onshore Wind Power Potential in South East Europe

7

EU can double the RE share in its energy mix17% in 2015 34% in 2030

Cost-effective technical options to accelerate renewables deployment in power and end-use sectors

(buildings, industry, transport) identified.

And it makes economic sense:

EUR 21 billion/year savings in terms of energy costs by 2030.

Savings total EUR 44-113 billion/ year by 2030, with reducedexternalities from CO2 emissions and improved air quality

RE Prospects for the EU

CESEC countries covered in the EU REmapAustria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia

RE Roadmap for the CESEC

Objectives

To identify cost-effective technical options to accelerate renewables deployment by 2030

To identify opportunities for further regional integration of energy systems

Support in setting 2030 targets and measures for the Energy Community countries

The boundaries and names shown on this map do not imply any official endorsement or acceptance by IRENA.

October 2018 January 2019 June 2019 December 2019

Preliminary findings Sectorial workshop Kick-off workshop Final report

• Present the renewable energy landscape in the region (potential, costs, consumption).

• Focus on the biomass sector, potential, production and end-use.

• Assessment of the RE finance: investment trends, evolution of the capital mix, key financing barriers.

• Present the socio-economic benefits of renewable energy in the region.

• Reviews, comments, feedback, suggestions welcome: External review – April 2019

Launch – June 2019 in Sarajevo

• IRENA’s regional workshop focusing on RE socio-economic benefits, RE costs and affordability

• In collaboration with the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations of Bosnia and Herzegovina

RE Market Analysis for Southeast Europe

Moving forward: accelerating renewables in CESEC countries

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Very large potential for efficient electrification with heat pumps in buildings and industry.

Solar thermal can be scaled up dramatically.

Significant geothermal potential.

Potential for a more efficient use and for increased uptake of biomass for heating.

Electrification of light duty vehicles buses and passenger cars is quickly reaching commercial maturity.

Biofuels, both conventional and advanced, for applications hard to electrify.

Large potential for scale up of:

Solar PV (both distributed and utility scale)

Wind power

Significant potential for biomass in power.

Solar PV Auctions in the Energy Community in 2018

Albania: 50 MW - 59,9 €/MWh(compared with 100 €/MWh FiT)

Montenegro: 200 MW at market price

Innovation trends – drivers of flexibility

30 innovations

Strengthening enabling policy and regulatory frameworks

Renewables Readiness Assessment in Republic of Moldova

Recommended actions to:

• improve the long-term planning to reflect country’s aspirations for higher shares of VRE,

• strengthen regulatory environment for RE power investments to ensure smooth

implementation of auctions,

• increase financial institution’s confidence in the market,

• ensure comprehensive approach to the bioenergy sector, including biofuels,

• boost public awareness of renewable energy.

Renewable Energy Auctions in UkraineSupport in the transition to more market-based schemes

RE Auctions Guidelines for the Energy Community Contracting Parties, March 2018

Webinar on Auctions Design for Ukraine, October 2018

Conference "Auction Support Scheme in Ukraine for Renewable Energy Deployment”, February 2019

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Conclusions/ recommendations from the EUFORES workshop