Mark Tessler

University of Michigan

Religion and Other Determinants of Muslim Attitudes toward Gender Equality: Evidence and Insights from 56 MENA Surveys (some hypotheses and findings)

What Leads People to Different Views about What Islam Requires and Permits with Respect to Women’s Status and Gender Equality (seeking insights)

What Do Ordinary Citizens in the Arab World Really Think about the Islamic State: Selected Results from an Arab Barometer Survey and Experiment (descriptives only)

Early Surveys World Values Survey 4th & 5th Waves Arab Barometer 2nd WaveCountry Year N Country Year N Country Year N

Egypt 1988 292 Jordan 2003 1000 Jordan 2010 1188Kuwait 1988 300 Palestine 2003 1320 Palestine 2010 1200Palestine 1995 2368 Algeria 2004 1446 Algeria 2011 1216Palestine 1999 1200 Morocco 2005 1083 Lebanon 2010 1387

Kuwait 2005 750 Yemen 2011 1200World Values Survey 3rd Wave Yemen 2006 1440 Iraq 2011 1236

Country Year N KSA 2003 1502 Egypt 2011 1220Egypt 2000 3000 Iraq 2004 2325 KSA 2011 1405Iran 2000 2532 Iran 2005 2667 Sudan 2011 1538Turkey 2001 4607 Iraq 2006 2701Jordan 2001 1223 Jordan 2007 1200 Arab Barometer 3rd WaveMorocco 2001 2264 Morocco 2007 1200 Country Year NAlgeria 2002 1282 Egypt 2008 3051 Jordan 2013 1795

Turkey 2007 1346 Palestine 2012 1200

Tessler National Science FoundationQatar (6th wave) 2010 1060 Algeria 2013

201312201116Morocco

Country Year N Kuwait 2014 1021Jordan 2003 1000 Arab Barometer 1st Wave Lebanon 2013 1200Palestine 2003 1320 Country Year N Yemen 2013 1200Algeria 2004 1446 Jordan 2006 1143 Iraq 2013 1215Morocco 2005 1083 Palestine 2006 1270 Egypt 2013 1196Kuwait 2005 750 Algeria 2006 1300 Sudan 2013 1200Yemen 2006 1440 Morocco 2006 1277 Tunisia 2013 1199

Lebanon 2007 1200 Libya 2014 1247Yemen 2007 1182Jordan 2008 967Palestine 2008 3430 N = 56 N = 82,489Bahrain 2009 500

Carnegie Middle East Governance and Islam Dataset

6

Political CharacteristicsYear of IndependenceColonial HeritageYears under ColonialismCivil Liberties Index (Freedom House, 1-7 scale)Political Rights Index (Freedom House, 1-7 scale)Status of Freedom (Freedom House, 1-3 scale)Corruption Perception Index (Transparency International, 0-10 scale)Percentage of Women in the Lower House of ParliamentLegal Protection of Religion Index (Association of Religion Data Archives, 0-3 scale)Freedom of Religion in Practice Index (Association of Religion Data Archives, 0-2 scale)Government Funding of Religion Index (Association of Religion Data Archives, 0-12 scale)Government Regulation of Religion Index (Association of Religion Data Archives, 0-10 scale)

Social and Demographic Characteristics Economic CharacteristicsPopulation (in millions) GDP (millions of current U.S. dollars)Area (in square kilometers) GDP Per Capita (current U.S. dollars)Percentage of Urban Population Per Capita National Income (current US dollars)Percent of Population under Age 14 GINI CoefficientPercent of Non-Muslim Population Percent Unemployed (age 15 and older)United Nations Human Development Index Percent of Women in Labor force Life Expectancy (in years) Percentage of GDP from Natural Resource Rents Adult Literacy Rate (age 15 and older) Per Capita Natural Resource Rents Female Literacy Rate (age 15 and older)Gross Secondary School Enrollment RateFemale Secondary School Enrollment RateLinguistic FractionalizationReligious FractionalizationEthnic Fractionlization

Country-Level Variables included in the Dataset

Country-Level Attributes that May Specify an Environment in which a

Hypothesized Individual-Level Relationship is Disproportionately Likely (or Unlikely) to have Explanatory Power

also 5-year and 10-year lags of

many of these variables

Strongly Agree or

Agree

Disagree or Strongly Disagree

Do you think it is important for girls to go to high school? 85.9 14.1

A married woman can work outside the home, if she wishes 81.4 18.6

It is acceptable to a woman to be a member of parliament 76.5 23.5

A university education is more important for a boy than a girl 29.4 70.6Men and women should have equal job opportunities and wages 69.6 30.4

Women have the right to get divorced upon their request 69.6 30.4

A woman can be president or prime minister of a Muslim country 53.8 46.2

A woman can travel abroad by herself, if she wishes 33.9 66.1

On the whole, men make better political leaders than women 72.9 27.1

Items Dealing with Women’s Status in the Carnegie Dataset

Items on the Interpretation of Islam Pertaining to Women

38 Surveys, N = 42,820 Strongly Agree Agree Neither Disagree

Strongly Disagree

Q703d. It is a violation in Islam for male and female university students to attend classes together

14.2 22.5 2.3 39 22

Q703f. In Islam, a woman should dress modestly, but Islam does not require that she wear a hijab.

25.7 33.2 0.1 20 20

Q703d. It is a violation in Islam for male and female university students to attend classes together

Strongly Agree Agree Neither Disagree

Strongly Disagree

Q703f . In Islam a woman should dress modestly, but Islam does not require that she wear a hijab

Strongly Agree 3.5% 3.6% (16.4) 6.3% 11.0%Agree 2.1% 7.2% (40.5) 18.3% 4.9%NeitherDisagree 1.9% 7.2% (20.0) 9.0% 2.2%Strongly Disagree 6.6% 4.3% (20.0) 5.1% 3.7%

Q703d

Q703f

Pearson Correlation -.245**

Sig. (2-tailed) .000

N 44,820

Q703. Today as in the past, Muslim scholars and jurists sometimes disagree about the proper interpretation of Islam in response to present-day issues. For each of the statements listed below, please indicate whether you agree strongly, agree, disagree, or disagree strongly with the interpretation of Islam that is presented.

country/year Mean NStd.

Deviation

Jordan 2003 6.6828 971 1.50952Jordan 2006 6.4418 1048 2.05893Jordan 2010 6.2939 1123 2.19321Jordan 2012 6.6665 1724 2.31039Palestine 2003 7.0000 1304 1.55976Palestine 2006 5.9430 1228 2.08304Palestine 2010 6.0639 1174 2.09742Palestine 2012 6.0204 1179 2.13816Algeria 2002 7.8871 1178 1.52743Algeria 2004 7.0717 1325 1.54054Algeria 2006 6.1131 1096 2.38028Algeria 2011 6.9122 911 1.94851Algeria 2013 7.2749 1066 1.92353Morocco 2005 5.1486 969 2.19659Morocco 2006 6.8320 1125 2.14535Morocco 2013 7.6637 1023 1.91050Kuwait 2005 7.3205 730 1.75877Kuwait 2014 6.1904 998 2.19825

country/year Mean NStd.

Deviation

Lebanon 2007 8.1986 1143 1.81932Lebanon 2010 8.4312 1287 1.90147Lebanon 2013 8.6795 1167 1.76835Yemen 2006 5.9937 1436 2.16351Yemen 2007 5.2460 622 2.29238Yemen 2011 6.3984 1097 2.24074Yemen 2013 5.9539 1149 2.60670Iraq 2004 4.7131 2168 2.18836Iraq 2006 4.7081 2453 1.99254Iraq 2011 6.4464 1176 1.76602Iraq 2013 5.9620 1133 1.92146Egypt 2011 6.7814 1185 2.09536Egypt 2013 6.3828 1084 2.35025Saudi Arabia 2011 5.0750 1226 2.33886Bahrain 2009 6.5754 398 2.21583Sudan 2011 6.9916 1429 2.12724Sudan 2013 6.9524 1156 2.12068Tunisia 2011 8.1701 1058 1.43591Tunisia 2013 8.3868 1135 1.97453Libya 2014 6.8394 1146 2.23205Total 6.5574 44820 2.29962

Surveys Containing Items Pertaining to Women in Islam and Scale Based on Two Items Frequency Percent

Most“Conservative”2.00 2968 6.63.00 2787 6.24.00 3329 7.45.00 3335 7.46.00 10684 23.87.00 3076 6.98.00 8707 19.49.00 5019 11.210.00 4915 11.1Most“Liberal”Total 44,820 100.0

Strongly Agree or

Agree

Disagree or Strongly Disagree

Do you think it is important for girls to go to high school? 85.9 14.1

A married woman can work outside the home, if she wishes 81.4 18.6

It is acceptable to a woman to be a member of parliament 76.5 23.5

A university education is more important for a boy than a girl 29.4 70.6Men and women should have equal job opportunities and wages 69.6 30.4

Women have the right to get divorced upon their request 69.6 30.4

A woman can be president or prime minister of a Muslim country 53.8 46.2

A woman can travel abroad by herself, if she wishes 33.9 66.1

On the whole, men make better political leaders than women 72.9 27.1

Religion and Other Determinants of Muslim Attitudes toward Gender Equality

Possible Determinants

• Religiosity• Attitudes toward Political Islam• Interpersonal Trust• Political Trust• Personal Economic Circumstance

Some Methodological Considerations• 54 surveys, 17 countries; pooled individual-level analysis• Only Muslim respondents (N = 79, 569)• Weighted for sample size differences and population overlap• Regression holds the other IVs constant• Control variables (religiosity, age, sex)• Disaggregation by sex, age and education

Hypotheses Pertaining To Islam

H1a. Men and women who are more religious are less likely than those who are less religious to support gender equality.

H1b. Men and women who are more religious are not less more likely than those who are less religious to support gender equality.

H2a. Men and women who support political Islam are less likely than those do not support political Islam to support gender equality.

H2b. Men and women who support political Islam are not less likely than those do not support political Islam to support gender equality.

H3a. Men and women with higher levels of inter-personal trust are more likely than those with lower levels of inter-personal trust to support gender equality.

H3b. Men and women with lower levels of inter-personal trust are more likely than those with higher levels of inter-personal trust to support gender equality

H4a. Men and women with higher levels of political trust are more likely than those with lower levels of political trust to support gender equality.H4b. Men and women with lower levels of political trust are more likely than those with higher levels of political trust to support gender equality.

H5a. Men and women in more favorable economic circumstances are more likely than those in less favorable economic circumstances to support gender equality.H5b. Men and women in less favorable economic circumstances are more likely than those in more favorable economic circumstances to support gender equality.

Other Hypotheses

Measures and Constituent ItemsNumber

of SurveysGender EqualityA married woman can work outside the home if she wishes 38On the whole, men make better political leaders than women do 53A university education is more important for a boy than a girl 54Men and women should have equal job opportunities and wages 28A woman can travel abroad by herself if she wishes 20A woman should cease to work outside the home after marriage in order to devote full time to home and family 10

Women have the right to get divorced upon their request 12Do you think it is important for girls to go to high school? 2

Personal ReligiosityWhen you consider what a suitable spouse is for your son or daughter, would you say that each of the following is very important, somewhat important, or not important: S/he doesn't pray

28

Independently of whether you go to religious services or not, would you say you are religious, in between, or not religious? 46

How often do you pray? 40How often do you pray at/attend the mosque? 36How often do you read the Quran? 36Do you find that you get comfort and strength from religion? 14When you need advice about a personal problem, how often do you consult each of the following? An imam or fakih 6

Do you refer to religious teachings when taking decisions about your life? 2

Political IslamGovernment should implement only the laws of the sharia 45Men of religion should NOT influence how people vote in elections 45Men of religion should have NO influence over the decisions of government 45Religious practice is a private matter and should be separated from socio-political life 41It would be better for [country] if more people with strong religious beliefs held public office 45

Religious leaders should NOT interfere in politics 2Clergy should have an important social and political role in society 2

Measures and Constituent ItemsNumber

of SurveysInter-Personal TrustCan or cannot most people be trusted?

51

Political TrustTrust in the Prime Minister 47Trust in courts/justice system 31Trust in parliament 43Trust in the police 47Trust in political parties 32Trust in the press 21Trust in the military 35

Individual Economic Circumstancem107 Individual monthly income 54m108 Satisfaction with economic situation of household

33

Items Used in Factor Analyses to Measure Attitude toward Gender Equality, Personal Religiosity, Attitude toward Political Islam, Inter-Personal Trust, Political Trust, and Individual Economic Circumstance

More Personally Religious -.026 (.006) ***More Supportive of Political Islam -.148 (.007) ***Higher Level of Inter-Personal Trust -.049 (.007) ***Higher Level of Political Trust .002 (.007)More Favorable Individual Economic Circumstance .040 (.007) ***Constant -1.023 (.038) ***

Control VariablesFemale Sex .515 (.013) ***Older Age .017 (.006) **Higher Level of Education .115 (.006) ***

Impact on Support for Gender Equality of Personal Religiosity, Attitude toward Political Islam, Inter-Personal Trust, Political Trust, and Personal Economic Circumstance

Index or MeasureLowest Value

Highest Value

Gender Equality -3.31 .211Personal Religiosity -4.32 .272Attitudes toward Political Islam -3.99 3.07Inter-Personal Trust 1 3Political Trust -4.25 2.83Individual Economic Circumstance -2.07 1.74

Higher values on dependent variable indicate greater support for gender equality; table presents unstandardized coefficients; standard errors are in parentheses

*significant at .05 level**significant at .01 level

***significant at .001 level

Support for Gender Equality Based on Factor Scores – Percent in QuartileFirst

Quartile: Least

SupportiveSecond Quartile

Third Quartile

Fourth Quartile:

MostSupportive

Men Aged 34 and Under with Less than Secondary Education (N=6,189) 42.4 25.6 18.0 13.9

Men Aged 35 and Over with Less than Secondary Education (N=13,455)

33.4 27.2 21.4 18.0

Women Aged 34 and Under with Less than Secondary Education (N=10.132)

39.1 26.2 20.1 14.6

Women Aged 35 and Over with Less than Secondary Education (N= 9,333)

29.4 26.0 24.5 20.1

Men Aged 34 and Under with Secondary Education or More (N=7,982)

22.2 24.6 25.7 27.4

Men Aged 35 and Over with Secondary Education or More (N=12,839)

12.4 19.8 28.1 39.7Women Aged 34 and Under with Secondary Education or More (N=12,042)

23.7 25.9 25.0 25.4

Women Aged 35 and Over Under with Secondary Education or More (N=6,482)

15.4 22.3 28.2 34.2

Attitude toward Gender Equality among Respondents Grouped by Sex, Age, and Educational Level

More Personally Religious

More Supportive of Political

Islam

Higher Level of Inter-

Personal Trust

Higher Level of Political

Trust

More Favorable Individual Economic Situation Constant

Men Aged 34 and Under with Less than Secondary Education

.005(.021)

-.102 ***(.025)

-.084 **(.028)

-.004(.024)

.045 (.025)

-.207 ***(.052)

Men Aged 35 and Over with Less than Secondary Education

-.038 **(.013)

-.195 ***(.015)

-.054 **(.018)

.011 (.015)

.053 **(.016)

-.098 **(.033)

Women Aged 34 and Under with Less than Secondary Education

-.012(.019)

-.165 ***(.019)

-.004(.021)

.008(.019)

.024(.019)

-.312 ***(.039)

Women Aged 35 and Over with Less than Secondary Education

-.059 ***(.017)

-.209 ***(.018)

-.013(.019)

-.014(.017)

.075 ***(.019)

-.090 **(.037)

Men Aged 34 and Under with Secondary Education or More

-.003(.025)

-.109 ***(.023)

-.085 ***(.025)

.042 (.023)

.024(.023)

.291 ***(.047)

Men Aged 35 and Over with Secondary Education or More

-.038 **(.015)

-.110 ***(.015)

-.081 ***(.018)

.014(.015)

.049 ***(.015)

.545 ***(.033)

Women Aged 34 and Under with Secondary Education or More

.004(.025)

-1.07 ***(.021)

-.064 **(.023)

-.018(.021)

.023(.021)

-.198 ***(.043)

Women Aged 35 and Over with Secondary Education or More

-.010(.022)

-.113 ***(.021)

-.039 (.023)

-.060 **(.021)

.056 **(.021)

.428 ***(.043)

Impact on Support for Gender Equality of Personal Religiosity, Attitude toward Political Islam, Inter-Personal Trust, Political Trust, and Personal Economic Circumstance for Respondents Grouped by Sex, Age, and Educational Level

Higher values on dependent variable indicate greater support for gender equality

Table presents unstandardized coefficients; standard errors are in parentheses

*significant at .05 level **significant at .01 level

***significant at .001 level

Variable Direction For Whom SignificantHigher Personal Religiosity

Inverse Older less well educated men and women; Older better educated men

More Support for Political Islam

Inverse All demographic categories

Greater Inter-Personal Trust

Inverse All men regardless of age and education; Younger better educated women

Higher Level of Political Trust

Inverse Older better educated women

More Favorable Economic Circumstance

Positive All older persons regardless of sex and age

VariablesSignificantly

Related to Support for Gender Equality by

Demographic Category

Future Work• Expand the database• Additional individual-level hypotheses • Further reflection on underlying causal stories

• Identification of demographic and country attribute conditionalities

Three of the New Arab Barometer Items about the Islamic State• To what extent do you agree with the goals of the Islamic State?• To what extent to do you support the Islamic State’s use of violence?• To what extent do you believe the Islamic State’s tactics are compatible with

the teachings of Islam?Country Date N

Jordan March 2016 1500

Morocco May-June 2016 1200

Tunisia February 2016 1200

Palestine February 2016 1200

Algeria May 2016 1200

Questions on the Islamic State Were Not Asked in Egypt; 4th Wave Surveys to Be Completed: Lebanon and Three Countries in GCC

4.6

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Algeria

Palestine

Tunisia

Morocco

Jordan

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Palestine

Tunisia

Morocco

Jordan

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Tunisia

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Jordan

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mFigure 1. Attitudes toward Islamic State in Five Arab Countries

Agree

Refuse/ Don't Know Refusal/Don’t Know may

indicate positive attitude

How to explain more positive attitudes in Algeria and Palestine

7.8

6.2

3.4 3.31.9

6.7 6.2

2.30.0 0.9

13.3

10.8

14.9

4.1

1.9

8.67.8

3.3 2.81.5

7.7 7.3

2.71.6 1.4

12.611.6

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Algeria Palestine Tunisia Morocco Jordan Algeria Palestine Tunisia Morocco Jordan Algeria Palestine Tunisia Morocco Jordan

Percent Agreeing with Goals Percent Agreeing with Tactics Percent Agreeing Tactics Compatible with Islam

Figure 2. Attitudes toward Islamic State of Younger Less Educated Men and Others

Younger Less Educated Men

Others

Only for item on teachings of Islam and only in Tunisia is difference statistically significant

Control: No added text

Treatment A: As you may know, Daesh has emerged as a potent force in the region and the world. In 2014 it declared a caliphate based in Raqqa, Syria. Daesh’s goal is to extend the caliphate across the Muslim world and it has killed many Muslims and non-Muslims in pursuit of this aim.

Treatment B: As you may know, Daesh has emerged as a potent force in the region and the world. In 2014 it declared a caliphate based in Raqqa, Syria. Daesh’s goal is to extend the caliphate across the Muslim world and it has killed many Muslims and non-Muslims in pursuit of this aim. Another of Daesh’s stated objectives is to limit Shia influence across the Muslim world as well as opposing Iranian-led Shia forces in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and elsewhere.

Treatment C: As you may know, Daesh has emerged as a potent force in the region and the world. In 2014 it declared a caliphate based in Raqqa, Syria. Daesh’s goal is to extend the caliphate across the Muslim world and it has killed many Muslims and non-Muslims in pursuit of this aim. Another of Daesh’s stated objectives is to defend Islam from attacks by secular leaders and other elites whose goal is to limit the role of Islam in government and public life.

Treatment D: As you may know, Daesh has emerged as a potent force in the region and the world. In 2014 it declared a caliphate based in Raqqa, Syria. Daesh’s goal is to extend the caliphate across the Muslim world and it has killed many Muslims and non-Muslims in pursuit of this aim. Another of Daesh’s stated objectives is to counter intervention in the region by the United States and other Western powers who have engaged in military attacks against it.

An Embedded Experiment – Respondents Randomly Assigned to One of Five Groups

10.3

4.7

1.12.0

2.9

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Control Treatment A: Killed Many Treatment B: Killed Many Oppose Shia

Treatment C: Killed Many Oppose Secular Leaders

Treatment D: Killed Many Oppose Western Powers

Percent of Poorly Educated Younger Men Agreeing with Islamic State’s Goals

Figure 3. Support for Islamic State's Goals by Control and Treatments among Younger Less Educated Men

Why does message about Shi’a reduce support the most

Difference between Control and each of

Treatments B, C and D statistically significant

Figure 4. Agreement that Daesh’s Tactics Are Compatible with the Teachings of Islam among Younger, Less Educated Tunisian Men

Items on the Interpretation of Islam Pertaining to Women

N = 44,820Strongly

Agree Agree Neither DisagreeStrongly Disagree

Q703d. It is a violation in Islam for male and female university students to attend classes together

14.2 22.5 2.3 39 22

Q703f. In Islam, a woman should dress modestly, but Islam does not require that she wear a hijab.

25.7 33.2 0.1 20 20

Q703. Today as in the past, Muslim scholars and jurists sometimes disagree about the proper interpretation of Islam in response to present-day issues. For each of the statements listed below, please indicate whether you agree strongly, agree, disagree, or disagree strongly with the interpretation of Islam that is presented.

Most “Conservative”

Most “Liberal”

Score 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total

Frequency 2968 2787 3329 3335 10684 3076 8707 5019 4915 44,820

Percent 6.6 6.2 7.4 7.4 23.8 6.9 19.4 11.2 11.1 100

Islamic Interpretation Women’s Rights 2-10 Scale -- Higher = More Liberal InterpretationMean N Std. Deviation

Male, Age 18-34, Education < Secondary 6.3925 2078 2.27838Male, Age > 34, Education < Secondary 6.5415 4818 2.21459Female, Age 18-34, Education < Secondary 6.2814 3374 2.32386Female Age > 34 Education < Secondary 6.5767 3531 2.24536Male, Age 18-34, Education => Secondary 6.5661 2482 2.24738Male, Age > 34, Education => Secondary 6.9627 4353 2.11889Female, Age 18-34, Education => Secondary 6.4558 3700 2.30007Female Age > 34, Education => Secondary 6.7720 2500 2.19757

Islamic Interpretation Women’s Rights 2-10 Scale -- Higher = More Liberal Interpretation Country Development Index: Per capita GDP-Human Development Index-Percent Urban-Percent Secondary Enrollment-Life Expectancy -- Higher = More developed Mean N

Std. Deviation

Less developed - bottom third on Index (Morocco, Yemen) 6.1631 9821 2.30590Middle third (Algeria, Jordan) 6.9080 7041 2.04167More developed - top third on Index (Kuwait, Lebanon) 6.7598 10153 2.25746

Demographic and Country Attribute Correlates

6

Future Work• Expand the database• Additional individual-level hypotheses • Further reflection on underlying causal stories• Identification of demographic and country attribute conditionalities