Reliability Data Collection and Use in Risk and Availability Assessment Proceedings of the 5th eu~DCltf.l Conference Heidelberg, Germany, April 9-11, 1986

Editor H.-I Wingender

Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York Tokyo

Dr. Hans Jorg Wingender NUKEMGmbH Rodenbacher Chaussee 6 P. O. Box 11 00 80 6450 HanauI1, FRG

ISBN-13:978-3-642-82775-4 e-ISBN-13 :978-3-642-82773-0 DOl: 10.1007/978-3-642-82773-0

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically those of translation, r!lprinting, re-use of illustrations, broadcasting, reproduction by photocopying machine or similar means, and storage in data banks. Under§ 54 of the German Copyright Law where copies are made for other than private use, a fee is payable to "Verwertungsgesellschaft Wort", Munich.

© Springer·Verlag Berlin, Heidelberg 1986 Softcover reprint of tbe hardcover 1st edition 1986

The use of registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and there­fore free for general use.

216113020-543210

Eu~[)at,", Programme Committee H.1. Wingender, Organizing Chairman, NUKEM (FRG) A. Amendola, Joint Research Centre (CEq G. C. Bello, TEMA-ENI (I) P. Bockholts, TNO (NL) C. A. Campbell, British Petrol (GB) V. Ionescu, Motor Columbus (CH) A. Z. Keller, University of Bradford (GB) A. Leroy, Total (F) O. Lindwall, Volvo (S) T. R. Moss, RM Consultants (GB) A. L. Smith, Reliability Consultant (CH) S. Vikman, Volvo (S)

The Conference was supported by

~ Commission of the European Communities ~ JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE

Ispra Establishment

organized by

I.' IIUKEM NUKEM GmbH HANAU FRG

'-YI

Foreword

Reliability data collection and its use in risk and availability

assessment is a subject of increasing importance. The founders of

EuReDatA, and in particular, Arne Ullman, the originator 'and first

Chairman of the Association, recognised the need for a body capable of

acting as a catalyst and providing a unified approach to this subject.

It is therefore a prevailing objective of the European Reliability

Databank Association to initiate and support contact between experts,

companies and institutions active in reliability engineering and

research.

Although the first and principle interest of EuReDatA is reliability

data and data banks, the Association is aware that these are tools

that are used with others to establish and maintain reliability and

safety.

It is with this objective that EuReDatA regularly holds conferences

and seminars covering a range of reliability topics.

C.A. Campbell

EuReDatA Chairman

H.J. Wingender

Organiser, Editor

Contents

CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEWS

Data Situation and the Quality of Risk Assessment (FRG)

A. Birkhofer, K. Koberlein (GRS) ..••••....•.•...••.....•.•.. 3

Reliability Engineering in Europe (CEC)

G. Volta (JRC-Ispra) •...••••... •...........•••.•....•.••..••. 16

1984: A Year of Industrial Catastrophies. Would Preliminary Risk Analysis Have Avoided Many of them? (Italy)

G.C. Bello (TEMA-ENI), B. Frattini (ICARD) .....•..•..•..•..• 24

Status of the oREDA Project (France)

A. Leroy (TOTAL) .•.............•.•.•...•.................•.. 38

EuReDatA - Project Groups: An Overview of Objectives and Results (CEC)

T. Luisi (JRC-Ispra) •...•.•....•.•.•.•.•••••..•..•••.•••.•.• 47

A Guide to Reliability Data Collection, Validation and Storage (U.K.)

B. Stevens (UKAEA-NCSR) •...•.•.•.....•.•....•.•.•......•.•.. 57

The Use of Nuclear Power Plant Operating Experience in Probabilistic Safety Assessment

L. Lederman (IAEA) .••••..•....•.•••••.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•..• 66

"IX

CHAPTER 2: RELIABILITY DATA BANKS (PROJECTS AND EXPERIENCE)

Reliability Data Bank in Electronics: ITALTEL Experience over 10 Years of Operation (Italy)

G. Turconi (ITALTEL) .................•.................•.... 77

Component Event Data Bank Fast Breeder Reactors (Italy)

G. Cambi (Univ. of Bologna), R. Righini (ENEA), P. Sola, G. Zappelini (NIER) ......................•......•..........• 83

The Organization and Collection of System's Data in Fusion (U.S.A.)

C.W. Maynard, Z. Musicki (Univ. of Wisconsin) ............... 90

HARIS - an Information System for Reliability and Risk Studies (U.K.) "

T.R. Moss, V. Piotrovicz (R.M. Consultants) ................. 100

Classification Scheme for Process Plants (Italy, CEC)

G.C. Bello (TEMA), L. Ferrario (JRC-Ispra) , B. Frattini (ICARD), S. Zanelli (Univ. of Pisa) .... ; ...........•...•••.. 110

Merging of Heterogeneous Data Sources on Nuclear Power Plant Operating Experience (CEC, Italy)

H.W. Kalfsbeek (JRC-Ispra), M. Melis, B. Lisanti (EDRA-Milano) ............................................... 120

A Survey on Industrial Accident Data Bases (Netherlands, U.K., Italy, CEC)

P. Bockholts, I. Heidebrink (TNo), T.R. Moss, J.A. Butler (R.M. Cons.), C. Fiorentini (TECSA), P.Bastianini (JRC-Ispra) .........................•............•............... 130

Data Bank of Events with the Rijnmond Process Industry (Netherlands)

D. Goos, E.F. Blocker (Central Environmental Control Agency Rijnmond) ................................................... 137

x

SONATA: An Accident Data Base for Industrial Activities and Transport. Scope, Organization and Main Results (Italy)

E. Galatola, V. Colombari, G.C. Bello (TEMA-ENI) •.•••••••••• 146

CHAPTER 3: RELIABILITY DATA PROCESSING

Computerized Data Handling and Data Storage on Production Control of Aircraft Components and Test Equipment Reliabi­lity (F.R.G.)

K. JUngling, A. Maurer (NUKEM) ....•.••.•.•...•••.••.••..•.•• 159

Reliability Data Collection on IC and VLSI Devices Tested under Accelerated Life Conditions (Canada)

D.M. Barry, M. Meniconi (Lakehead Univ. Ontario)

Field Data as a Correction of Mil-Handbook Estimates (Italy)

C.A. Clarotti, M. de Marinis (ENEA), A. Manella (Garanzia

165

Qualita) .•.....••••.•.•.••.•.•••..•.•.•.•.•••.•.••.•.•..•••• 177

Developing Replacement Policies for Failing Components Using Discriminant Analysis (U.K.)

D. Jerwood, F.A. Georgiakodis (Univ. of Bradford) .......•... 186

Statistical Inference by the Use of Truncated Exponential Distribution: Estimates with Failure and Survival Times (Argentina)

D. Chiavassa, M. Masera (INGAR - Santa Fe)

Analysis of the Component Event Data Bank (CEDB) of the European Reliability Data System (ERDS): General Lines of Investigation and Objectives (CEC)

194

A. Besi (JRC - Ispra) •..•.••••••.•••••......•••.......••.... 204

Data Treatment and Trend Analysis at SKI (Schweden)

R. Nyman, L. Carlsson (SKI-Swedish Nuclear Power Inspec-torate) ••.•.•....••.••...••.•.•••••.•.••....•......•.•.••... 214

Multiple Correspondence Analysis of Abnormal Event Data from Nuclear Power Plants

XI

H.W. Kalfsbeek (JRC-Ispra) .•.••.......•..•. ~ ......•.•...•.•. 229

CHAPTER 4: SAfETY AND RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT (CASE STUDIES)

New Developments in Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methodology for Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities (F.R.G.)

R. Leicht, H.J. Wingender (NUKEM) ....•....•....•..•.•.•..••• 243

Use of PRA Methods in the Safety Analysis of Nuclear Waste Facilities (F.R.G.)

R. Leicht, J. Neuber, B. Puttke (NUKEM) •.•••.••••....••••••. 253

Use of the Steady States Method in the Probabilistic Safety Analysis of an Encapsulation Plant for Spent Fuel Elements (F .R.G.)

R. Leicht, A.R. Neghabian, B. Puttke (NUKEM) •••.•..••..•..•. 263

Assessment of PSA Methods and Procedures: a Wide Scoping European Research Programme (CEC)

A. Amendola (JRC-Ispra) ........•.•....••...........•.....•.• 273

A Feedback of the Probabilistic Safety Study (S.P.S.) into P.U.N. Design (Italy)

P. Moretti, M. Prelati (ENEL)

The Influence of Reliability and Safety on System Design (U. K. )

281

P. Grimshaw, H. Hamlin (Normalair-Garrett Ltd) ....••.......• 289

The Viggen Aircraft Radar, Reliability Achievement (Sweden)

G. Marklin, G. Holmberg (Ericsson Radio Systems AB) .....•... 301

XII

Relevance of Availability Evaluation Methodologies to Consumer Products Manufacturing Systems (Iraq)

N.A. Stipho (Min. of Light Industries, Baghdad)

Availability Study of a Polyethylene Plant (Italy)

D. Barone (ENICHEM), L. Negro, N. Piccinini (Politecnico

314

Torino) ••••••.•••••.•.•••.••••.•••.•.•.•.••••..•••.•.•..•••• 322

Availability and Risk Assessment of Power and Chemical Plants Utilizing PEAT (Finland)

H. Perhonen (Techn. Res. Centre VTT), A. Lyytikainen ...••••. 332

Risk Analysis of a Large Tank Farm of Liquefied Petroleum Gases (Italy)

S. Mazzocchi (TEMA-ENI), M. Campana (TRR) •...•....•...•...•. 344

Assessment of Accident Frequencies and Consequences for a New Danish Tunnel (Denmark)

K.E. Petersen (RISO Nat. Lab.)

Safety Assessment of Offshore Installations Using a Com­puter Model (Norway)

357

J.E. Vinnem, S. Haugen, L.R. Saetran (Sikte C A/S) ••••••...• 364

Reliability Data Required for a Seismic Risk Assessment (U.S.A.)

J.E. Wells (Univ. of California, LLNL) ...••.•..•..•....••••. 374

Structural and Mechanical Reliability Assessment in Ship Design and Operation (F.R.G.)

C. Oestergaard (Germanischer Lloyd Hamburg) .••••••.....•..•• 384

Data Acquisition, Probabilistic Design and Safety Margins at the Eastern ScheIdt Barrier Project (Netherlands)

F.C. Hamer, J.K. Vrijling (Ministry of Transport and Public Works) .••••...•••.•....••.•.....•..••....•••.......••••.•••. 394

XIII

CHAPTER 5: DATA AND UNCERTAINTIES

On the Correlation of Failure Rates (U.S.A)

G. Apostolakis, P. Moieni (Univ. of California L.A.) •..•.... 407

Intelligent Use of Sparse Data for Risk Assessment of Rare Events, a Case Study (Norway)

J.E. Vinnem (Sikte C A/S)

The Choice of Appropriate Reliability Data as a Descision Problem (F.R.G.)

414

P. Doerre, H.C. Sobottka (KWU) ........•..•.•............•••. 422

Collection and Usage of Reliability Data for Risk Analysis of LNG Storage Tanks (F .R.G.)

D. Klingmuller (Bilfinger + Berger Bau AG) ...•..•.••..•..... 431

Accuracy of Reliability Data for LPG System Components (Netherlands)

J. van der Horst (TND) ......•.•.•............•..••.•.•.•.•.• 441

CHAPTER 6: HUMAN RELIABILITY

Using a Simulation Model to Represent the Time Dependence of Human Reliability (F.R.G.)

St. Albers (Univ. of Hannover)

Human Performance: What Improvement from Human Reliability Assessment (U.K.)

445

R.H. Pope (CEGB) ..•••..•.•.•.•.•..•....•..••.............•.• 455

Fundamental Constraints on Some Event Data (U.K.)

I.A. Watson (UKAEA-SRS) 466

XIV

CHAPTER 7: RELIABILITY MODELLING AND TECHNIQUES

Measures of Aging in Model Construction and Identification (U. K.)

M. Newby (Univ. of Bradford) ••••...•.•.•••.•.•.••••...•••.•• 493

Identification of the Important Parameters of Complex Systems by a Bayesian Approach (CEC, Italy)

C. Calvi Parisetti (Univ. of Parma), L. Olivi (JRC-Ispra) 501

A Reliability Modelling and Prediction Methodology for Use in Aircraft Design (U.K.)

V.C. Serghides, J.P. Fielding (Cranfield Inst. of Tech-nology) .••••••••••••.•.••.•••.••••.•••.••••..•..•........••• 507

A Reliability Simulation Language for Reliability Analysis (U. K. )

N.D. Deans, A.J. Miller (R. Gordons Inst. of Technology), D. Mann (UDI) ..••..••.•....•.•.••.....•.•....••.•.•••.....•• 516

Study of a PWR Component Cooling ~ater System by the DISCO Methodology (France)

R. Coudray, B. Duchemin, M. J. de Villeneuve (CEA-CEN) •....•• 526

Program Structure and Software Reliability (F.R.G.)

G. Becker, L. Camarinopoulos (Techn. Univ. of Berlin)

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Reference to an Onshore Separating Plant) (Italy)

535

G. Cambi (Univ. of Bologna), P. Sola, G. Zappelini (NIER) 545

Techniques for Accident Sequence Quantification in PRA Studies (Italy)

A.M. Amendola, M. Genco (ANSALDO-NIRA), S. Contini (SYRECO) •••••••••.•••....••....•..••.....•.••.•.••..•.•.•... 554

Plant and Control System Reliability and Risk Model (Finland)

xv

1. Niemela (Techn. Res. Centre-VTT) •.••......•..•...•.•.••.• 564

Interactive Reliability Assessment Using an Integrated Reliability Data Bank (U.K.)

R.N. Allan, A.M. Whitehead (Univ. of Manchchester) •..•...... 573

Coupling Markov and Fault Tree Techniques for Calculating System Reliability (Italy)

C.A. Clarotti, G. Casadei, G. de Canio (ENEA) .•...••.•..•..• 582

Modelling a Drilling Procedure (France)

R. Grollier-Baron (IFP), A Leroy (TOTAL), J.P. Signoret (SNEA), L. Thomas-Collignon (SERI-Renault) ................•. 591

A Performance Oriented Reliability Model of a Pumping Station in a Fire Protection System (Italy)

A. Bobbio (Inst. Elettrotecnico Nazionale), A. Verna (Politecnico di Torino) .......................•.•.........•• 606

Application Areas of the DYLAM Approach to the Safety Analysis of Chemical Processes (CEC, Argentina)

N. Labath (INGAR), Z. Nivoliaitou (JRC-Ispra) ..........•.•.. 615

Proportional Hazard Modelling in the Analysis of Trans­mission Failure Statistics (U.K.)

S.J. Argent, P.T. Manning, S.G. Ryan (CEGB), A. Bendell, D. Wightman (Trent Polytechnic), J. Marshall (Loughborough Univ.) ..........................................•.......•... 624

An Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Techniques to the Safety Analysis of a PWR Nuclear Power Plant (Italy)

M. Pozzoli (EDRA) 634

XVI

CHAPTER 8: RELIABILITY FEEDBACK IN SYSTEMS DESIGN AND OPERATION

Studies of the Economic Impact of Unreliability (Norway)

0. Michelsen, U.N. Samdal, T. Uthus (Norsk Hydro A/S), S. Hoyle (Yard Consult) .•...•....•.•..........•............. 647

The Role of Instrumentation in Incidents (Netherlands)

P. Bockhol ts (TNO) .••......•..•..............•.......•...... 655

Control Room Ventilation Design Improvement Following Alto Lazio Station Reliability Analysis (Italy)

V. Cavicchia, M. Pennazzi (ENEL), P. Vallero (ANSALDO) ....•. 663

Reliable Design and Operation of the ECC System for a Heavy Water Moderated Nuclear Research Reactor (Jugoslavia, F.R.G.)

M.G. Lalovic (Univ. of Novi Sad), G.G. Weber (Nuclear Research Centre Karlsruhe) ..•............................... 671

Optimized Preventive Replacement Policy for Large Cascade Systems (F.R.G.)

H.H. Kretzen (INTERATOM) ....................•..........•.... 681

CHAPTER 9: INTELLIGENT INTERFACES FOR DATA RETRIEVAL

Navigational High-Level Interface for an Expert Data Base (Netherlands)

J. Karczewski (Delft Univ.) . .. .. .. .. .•.•• . .•. •. • .. .. .. .. .•.. 691

Artificial Intelligence Techniques for the European Relia­bility Data System (ERDS) (CEC)

F. Bastin, s. Capobianchi, S. Carlesso, A.D. Koletsos, T. Barbas (JRC-Ispra) . .. .. .•. . .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .•.. .•. .. . .. 699

Expert Systems and an Application for Advanced Data Retrieval (Netherlands)

L.M. Schrijnen (TNO) ....•...........•...................... 712