relex reliability software “the intuitive solution!” relex software corporation 1
TRANSCRIPT
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RelexRelexReliability SoftwareReliability Software
“the intuitive solution!”“the intuitive solution!”
Relex Software Relex Software CorporationCorporation
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What is What is RelexRelex??
A Powerful Reliability Software Tool… performs efficient reliability analysis uses multiple analysis techniques provides advanced features
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Relex Is Relex Is Uniquely QualifiedUniquely Qualified
Reliability Engineering ExperienceReliability Engineering Experience CommercialCommercial MilitaryMilitary
Software Development ExperienceSoftware Development Experience
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RelexRelexReliability SoftwareReliability Software
“the intuitive solution!”“the intuitive solution!”
Relex Software Relex Software CorporationCorporation
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Introduction to Introduction to Reliability PredictionReliability Prediction
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Reliability PredictionsReliability Predictions
What is a Reliability Prediction?What is a Reliability Prediction? Calculation of failure rate (MTBF)Calculation of failure rate (MTBF)
How is it Calculated?How is it Calculated? Based on established reliability modelBased on established reliability model
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Reliability MeasuresReliability Measures
Failure Rate (Failure Rate ()) Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF)Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) ReliabilityReliability AvailabilityAvailability
Sample Relex Reliability Prediction calculation results
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Failure RateFailure Rate
Defined As:Defined As: Rate of Occurrence of FailuresRate of Occurrence of Failures Number of Failure in Specified Number of Failure in Specified
Time PeriodTime Period
Units:Units: Failures per Million HoursFailures per Million Hours Failures per Billion Hours (FIT Rate)Failures per Billion Hours (FIT Rate)
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MTBFMTBF
Defined As:Defined As: Mean Time Between FailuresMean Time Between Failures Number of Hours to Pass Number of Hours to Pass
Before a Failure Occurs Before a Failure Occurs Inverse of Failure Rate*Inverse of Failure Rate*
Units:Units: Typically expressed in HoursTypically expressed in Hours *Constant Failure Rate Systems*Constant Failure Rate Systems
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ReliabilityReliability
Defined As:Defined As: The The probabilityprobability that an item will perform a that an item will perform a
required function without failure under required function without failure under
stated conditions for a stated period of stated conditions for a stated period of
timetime
Units:Units: Probability Value (0-1)Probability Value (0-1)
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AvailabilityAvailability
Defined As:Defined As: The The probabilityprobability that an item is in an that an item is in an
operable state at any timeoperable state at any time
Units:Units: Probability Value (0-1)Probability Value (0-1)
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Reliability “Summary”Reliability “Summary”
Failure Rate -- number of failures in timeFailure Rate -- number of failures in time
MTBF -- average time between failuresMTBF -- average time between failures
Reliability -- takes into account mission timeReliability -- takes into account mission time
Availability -- accounts for repairs (MTTR) Availability -- accounts for repairs (MTTR) and downtimeand downtime
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The Bathtub Curve The Bathtub Curve and Reliabilityand Reliability
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The Bathtub CurveThe Bathtub Curve
Represents failure rate tendencies for Represents failure rate tendencies for the lifespan of an itemthe lifespan of an item
Failure rate varies in different phases of Failure rate varies in different phases of lifelife
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Three Phases of LifeThree Phases of Life
Infant Mortality RegionInfant Mortality Region
Wear-Out RegionWear-Out Region
Constant Failure Rate RegionConstant Failure Rate Region
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Bathtub CurveBathtub Curve
Graph of Failure Rate vs. TimeGraph of Failure Rate vs. Time
Considers three phases of lifeConsiders three phases of life
Represents lifespan of itemRepresents lifespan of item
(i.e. 15 years for a car)(i.e. 15 years for a car)
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TimeTime
Fai
lure
Rat
eF
ailu
re R
ate
Infant Infant MortalityMortalityWear Wear OutOutConstant Failure Constant Failure
RateRate
Bathtub CurveBathtub Curve–Illustration––Illustration–
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Reliability ModelsReliability Models
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Influences to reliability /Influences to reliability /Model-parametersModel-parameters
Production maturity
Storageconditions
Transportconditions
Design &construction
Material-selection
Application-temperature
mechanicalstress
Climatic environment
electricalstress
Operatingconditions
Electronic component
Pro
du
ctio
n f
acto
rsA
pp
lica
tio
n f
acto
rs
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Relex Prediction ModelsRelex Prediction Models MIL-HDBK-217 (FN1, FN2 )MIL-HDBK-217 (FN1, FN2 ) Telcordia (Telcordia 1, Bellcore 4,5,6) Telcordia (Telcordia 1, Bellcore 4,5,6) Prism: RAC model (Process Grades, Bayesian)Prism: RAC model (Process Grades, Bayesian) NSWC-98/LE1: mechanical modelNSWC-98/LE1: mechanical model HRD5: British telecomm modelHRD5: British telecomm model CNET 93: French telecomm modelCNET 93: French telecomm model 299B: Chinese standard299B: Chinese standard
Relex allows the user to use multiple models within one project and use functionality across models (i.e. use Prism process grade factors
on 217 predicted failure rates, use Bellcore methods on 217 calculations, etc.)
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MIL-HDBK-217MIL-HDBK-217
Original standard for reliabilityOriginal standard for reliability
Reliability math models electronic devicesReliability math models electronic devices
Used commercially & in the defense industryUsed commercially & in the defense industry
Currently at Revision F Notice 2Currently at Revision F Notice 2
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Parts CountParts Count
A section of MIL-HDBK-217A section of MIL-HDBK-217
Provides simpler reliability mathProvides simpler reliability math
Typical Uses:Typical Uses:
Used early in the design processUsed early in the design process
Used to acquire a rough estimate of reliabilityUsed to acquire a rough estimate of reliability
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Telcordia (Bellcore)Telcordia (Bellcore)
Originally developed at AT&T Bell LabsOriginally developed at AT&T Bell Labs
““Modified” MIL-HDBK-217 equationsModified” MIL-HDBK-217 equations
New equations represented what their New equations represented what their
equipment was experiencing in the fieldequipment was experiencing in the field
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Telcordia (Bellcore) (cont.)Telcordia (Bellcore) (cont.)
New model with new featureNew model with new feature
Account for “real data”Account for “real data”
Burn-in, Field, Laboratory testing dataBurn-in, Field, Laboratory testing data
Popular standard for commercial Popular standard for commercial
companiescompanies
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MechanicalMechanical
Based on the Handbook of Reliability Based on the Handbook of Reliability Prediction Procedures for Mechanical Prediction Procedures for Mechanical Equipment, NSWC-98/LE1Equipment, NSWC-98/LE1
Provides models for various types of Provides models for various types of mechanical devices including springs, mechanical devices including springs, bearings, seals, etc.bearings, seals, etc.
New and unique standardNew and unique standard
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CNET & HRD5CNET & HRD5
Used in EuropeUsed in Europe Reliability models for telecommunicationsReliability models for telecommunications Current Versions:Current Versions:
HRD - 5 HRD - 5 CNET - 93 CNET - 93
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Bellcore vs. 217Bellcore vs. 217 Recognition & AcceptanceRecognition & Acceptance ConcentrationConcentration Calculations & EquationsCalculations & Equations Consideration of Test DataConsideration of Test Data MultiplierMultiplier PartsParts EnvironmentsEnvironments Quality LevelsQuality Levels
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Accuracy of MTBF Accuracy of MTBF AssessmentsAssessments
Stage I:Parts count method, assuming constant failure rates
Stage II:Variation of failure rates according to part families
Stage III:Taking into account of operational parameters
Stage IV:Consideration of failure modes, time influences, different failure distribution for each part, etc.
Accuracy
Time spent for the analysis
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PRISM Reliability PRISM Reliability ModelModel
Developed by the Reliability Analysis Center (RAC)Developed by the Reliability Analysis Center (RAC)
Accounts for the effect of process related variability Accounts for the effect of process related variability
on system failure rateon system failure rate
Inherent failure rate based on base failure rate and Inherent failure rate based on base failure rate and
environmental conditions (RAC Rates model)environmental conditions (RAC Rates model)
Failure rate may then be modified by:Failure rate may then be modified by: Process Grade Factors, and/orProcess Grade Factors, and/or
Bayesian Analysis, and/orBayesian Analysis, and/or
Predecessor DataPredecessor Data
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PRISM MethodologyPRISM Methodology
RAC Component
Models
System Reliability Assessment
Model
RAC Failure Rate Databases
Historical Data on Similar Systems
Process Assessments
Software Model
Test Data
Bayesian Data
Combination
System Reliability Estimate
Operational Profile, Environmental and Electrical Stresses
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Primary Causes of FailurePrimary Causes of Failure
(Nominal Values)
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PRISM Process Grade PRISM Process Grade Factor TypesFactor Types
DesignDesign ManufacturingManufacturing Parts QualityParts Quality System ManagementSystem Management CND (Can Not Duplicate)CND (Can Not Duplicate) InducedInduced WearoutWearout GrowthGrowth Infant MortalityInfant Mortality
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Other PRISM AdjustmentsOther PRISM Adjustments
BayesianBayesian Uses test and field data to enhance Uses test and field data to enhance
predicted failure ratepredicted failure rate
PredecessorPredecessor Uses previous history data to further refine Uses previous history data to further refine
predicted failure ratepredicted failure rate
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PRISM NotePRISM Note
Although PRISM contains RAC Rate models for Although PRISM contains RAC Rate models for many part types, it does not include the following:many part types, it does not include the following: Rotating devicesRotating devices RelaysRelays Switching devicesSwitching devices TubesTubes ConnectionsConnections LasersLasers Miscellaneous partsMiscellaneous parts
Relex can solve this problem by allowing the user to Relex can solve this problem by allowing the user to apply PRISM concepts (Process Grade, Bayesian, apply PRISM concepts (Process Grade, Bayesian, Predecessor) to a failure rate calculated by all other Predecessor) to a failure rate calculated by all other models.models.