relationship between aerosol optical thickness trends and population growth in the indian...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Relationship between aerosol optical thickness trends and population growth in the Indian subcontinent Kishcha, P. 1), Starobinets, B. 1), Kalashnikova,](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ef35503460f94c05320/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Relationship between aerosol optical thickness trends and population growth
in the Indian subcontinent
Kishcha, P.1), Starobinets, B.1), Kalashnikova, O.2), Alpert, P.1)
1)Department of Geophysical, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences,Tel-Aviv University
2)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
Gregory Leptoukh Giovanni Workshop, NASA, USA, September 27, 2012
![Page 2: Relationship between aerosol optical thickness trends and population growth in the Indian subcontinent Kishcha, P. 1), Starobinets, B. 1), Kalashnikova,](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ef35503460f94c05320/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Dramatic changes in the Indian population
1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 20500
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Indian population Prediction by U.S. Census Bureau
Pop
ula
tion
[m
illi
on]
Year
Kishcha et al., September 27, 2012 G. Leptoukh NASA Giovanni Workshop
![Page 3: Relationship between aerosol optical thickness trends and population growth in the Indian subcontinent Kishcha, P. 1), Starobinets, B. 1), Kalashnikova,](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ef35503460f94c05320/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Population and MODIS aerosol optical thickness for the top 26 mega-cities ( Ramanathan et al., JGR, 2007)
The relationship between population figures and AOT is not obvious and depends on many factors
1015
32
0.26
0.64
0.32
Tokyo BogotaBeijing
![Page 4: Relationship between aerosol optical thickness trends and population growth in the Indian subcontinent Kishcha, P. 1), Starobinets, B. 1), Kalashnikova,](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ef35503460f94c05320/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Population and MODIS aerosol optical thickness for the top 26 mega-cities ( Ramanathan et al., JGR, 2007)
The relationship between population figures and AOT is not obvious and depends on many factors
152020
0.570.540.39
Mumbai Delhi Calcutta
![Page 5: Relationship between aerosol optical thickness trends and population growth in the Indian subcontinent Kishcha, P. 1), Starobinets, B. 1), Kalashnikova,](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ef35503460f94c05320/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Our paper was aimed at quantifying the effects of urbanization on aerosol optical thickness, averaged separately over regions with differing population densities in the Indian subcontinent.
Kishcha, P. , B. Starobinets, O. Kalashnikova, P. Alpert (2011)
AEROSOL OPTICAL THICKNESS TRENDS AND POPULATION GROWTH IN THE INDIAN
SUBCONTINENTInternational Journal of Remote Sensing, 2011.
![Page 6: Relationship between aerosol optical thickness trends and population growth in the Indian subcontinent Kishcha, P. 1), Starobinets, B. 1), Kalashnikova,](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ef35503460f94c05320/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
To estimate the effect of urbanization on aerosol optical thickness, we used AOT averaging over extensive territories of the Indian subcontinent with differing population densities.
There are some sites without correspondence between population and AOT, however, AOT averaging minimizes the effects of those sites on the total dependence of AOT on population density.
Kishcha et al., September 27, 2012 G. Leptoukh NASA Giovanni Workshop
![Page 7: Relationship between aerosol optical thickness trends and population growth in the Indian subcontinent Kishcha, P. 1), Starobinets, B. 1), Kalashnikova,](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ef35503460f94c05320/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Comparison between the 8-year (2000 – 2008) mean distribution of MODIS AOT and that of population density for the months from
October to February.
MODIS AOT POPULATION DENSITY
![Page 8: Relationship between aerosol optical thickness trends and population growth in the Indian subcontinent Kishcha, P. 1), Starobinets, B. 1), Kalashnikova,](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ef35503460f94c05320/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
We removed the factors which influence AOT, but do not depend on population density:
These factors are natural aerosols (desert dust); the effects of cloudiness during the monsoon period; and the anomalous precipitation associated with increased wet removal of atmospheric aerosols.
These factors interfere with determining the relationship between AOT associated with anthropogenic activities and population densities; and that between AOT trends and population growth.
Kishcha et al., September 27, 2012 G. Leptoukh NASA Giovanni Workshop
![Page 9: Relationship between aerosol optical thickness trends and population growth in the Indian subcontinent Kishcha, P. 1), Starobinets, B. 1), Kalashnikova,](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ef35503460f94c05320/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The monsoon season with high cloud presence is unfavorable for studying relationship between population figures and satellite-based AOT
The 8-year (2000 – 2008) mean distributions of MODIS cloud fraction
June - August October - February
![Page 10: Relationship between aerosol optical thickness trends and population growth in the Indian subcontinent Kishcha, P. 1), Starobinets, B. 1), Kalashnikova,](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ef35503460f94c05320/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
The period from October to February is the favorable season for our study – this is the season with minimal cloud fraction and minimal dust activity.
The 8-year (2000 – 2008) average seasonal variation of MODIS cloud fraction over the Indian subcontinent
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
MO
DIS
clo
ud f
ract
ion
Months
MODIS CF
Desert dust
![Page 11: Relationship between aerosol optical thickness trends and population growth in the Indian subcontinent Kishcha, P. 1), Starobinets, B. 1), Kalashnikova,](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ef35503460f94c05320/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
The eight-year (2000 – 2008) mean AOT averaged over the regions with differing population density from October to February
The dependence of AOT on population density is monotonic: an increase in population density is accompanied by an increase in AOT.
![Page 12: Relationship between aerosol optical thickness trends and population growth in the Indian subcontinent Kishcha, P. 1), Starobinets, B. 1), Kalashnikova,](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ef35503460f94c05320/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
The time series of AOT averaged over the regions with differing population density, for the months from October to February – as
an indication of the deterioration of air quality.
PD>500; 2.3 % yr-1, 1.4% yr-1
16% of the territory
250<PD<500; 2.1 % yr-1, 1.5% yr-1
21%
100<PD< 250; 2.5 % yr-1, 1.7% yr-1
37%
Pop. Den. AOT trend Pop. Den. trend
1<PD<100; AOT trend19% is not significant
Kishcha et al., September 27, 2012 G. Leptoukh NASA Giovanni Workshop
![Page 13: Relationship between aerosol optical thickness trends and population growth in the Indian subcontinent Kishcha, P. 1), Starobinets, B. 1), Kalashnikova,](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ef35503460f94c05320/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
The eight-year (2000 – 2008) mean MODIS AOT from October to February
Population density can be used as a proxy for anthropogenic aerosol emissions in the Indian subcontinent, if AOT is averaged over the extensive territories.
152020
0.570.540.39
Mumbai Delhi Calcutta
Population and MODIS aerosol optical thickness for the top 26 mega-cities ( Ramanathan et al., JGR, 2007)
![Page 14: Relationship between aerosol optical thickness trends and population growth in the Indian subcontinent Kishcha, P. 1), Starobinets, B. 1), Kalashnikova,](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062422/56649ef35503460f94c05320/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Conclusions
Over the specified regions in the Indian subcontinent with differing population densities:
(a) the higher the averaged population density – the bigger the averaged AOT,
(b) over more than 70% of the Indian subcontinent, a population growth of ~1.5% yr-1 was accompanied by increasing AOT trends of over 2% yr-1.
Kishcha et al., September 27, 2012 G. Leptoukh NASA Giovanni Workshop