register-based migration statistics and using additional administrative data sources barica...
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Register-based migration statistics and using additional administrative data sources
Barica Razpotnik
Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia
UNECE Workshop on Migration Statistics, Minsk,28-29 May 2015
Contents
• Central Population Register (CPR) and Statistical Office (SURS)
• CPR-based migration statistics
• Improving migration statistics by using additional administrative sources
Central Population Register (CPR)
• First established after the 1971 population census by then-Statistical Office, in 1998 handed over to the Ministry of the Interior
• Made up of several separate registers (e.g. register of permanent residents, register of foreigners, register of births, household register, asylum register, register of citizenship etc.), all of which were fully integrated in 2006 (using PINs and other identifiers if needed)
• Since 2008 SURS has been receiving all the data for demographic statistics on an individual level (PIN)
• Statistics on usual resident population, migrations, marriages, acknowledgements of paternity solely CPR-based
• Statistics on births, deaths and divorces use a combination of sources (National Institute of Public Health/district courts + usual resident population)
Data transmission CRP SURS
• Quarterly data transmissions 3 months after the reference date/end of reference quarter; some variables are specifically SURS-defined;
• EVENTS include all registered events (vital, migration, administrative) that occurred to any person in the reference quarter; 180 variables, about 0.4 million records per transmission;
• STOCK includes all living persons who can legally reside in the country on a given reference date; 172 variables, about 2.7 million records per transmission;
• STOCK(1 JAN) + EVENTS(Q1) = STOCK(1 APR)
• STOCK data are the basis for deriving usual resident population, with some auxiliary data being derived from EVENTS data
• Selected EVENTS data are the basis for migration statistics, along with final usual resident population for each quarter
CPR-based migration statistics
Changes in usual resident population (between quarterly reference dates in one year)
– Persons newly appearing among usual resident population
– Persons who disappeared from usual resident population
– Persons in final data on births and deaths for the year are excluded
EVENTS data on migration– Registration of permanent or
temporary residence– Extension of temporary residence– Registration of temporary
absence/return after temporary absence
– Administrative changes of residence
JOINT DATA
DATA CLEANINGRemoving irrelevant records (e.g. multiple records for the same event)
Editing errors due to delays in registration of different eventsCompleting incomplete records
FINAL MIGRATION DATABASE
Improving migration statistics by using additional administrative sources
Paper first presented at joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics in Chisinau in September 2014: http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/stats/documents/ece/ces/ge.10/2014/mtg1/WP_15_Slovenia.pdf
Population and activity status 1
• 8 activity status data sources to be linked with usual resident population:1. Statistical Register of Employment (SRDAP, internal source);
2. Registered unemployed persons (provided by Employment Service of Slovenia);
3. Students in vocational and professional higher education (statistical survey);
4. Recipients of national scholarship in upper secondary and tertiary education (statistical survey);
5. Recipients of old-age, disability, survivor’s and national pensions (provided by Pension and Disability Insurance Institute of Slovenia);
6. Family members of insured persons and other inactive persons in health insurance (provided by Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia);
7. Recipients of social and other assistance and benefits (provided by Ministry of Labour, Family, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities);
8. Income tax payers (provided by Tax administration of the Republic of Slovenia).
• Hierarchy of sources each usual resident 15+ is assigned an activity status, statistical methods (automated corrections, imputations) used for missing values
• Persons appearing among usual resident population and not in any of the activity status data sources & persons appearing in other sources but are not counted as usual resident population unregistered migrants?
Population and activity status 2
usual resident population
activity status data sources
UNREGISTERED EMIGRANTS?UNREGISTERED IMMIGRANTS?
Why are some migrants unregistered?
• Ignorance about the legislation & legislation not being enforced Slovenian citizens not registering their temporary departure from the country
failure to register their return after a correctly registered temporary departure
• Speculation many rights are based on having registered permanent residence in Slovenia (e.g. social benefits, health insurance, also for foreign citizens)
long-term resident status in the EU for non-EU foreigners with permanent residence in Slovenia (less incentive to de-register if returning to their home-country)
„interest“ in not having registered residence in Slovenia
Potential unregistered emigrants 1
• A person counted as usual resident but not appearing in any of the activity status data sources 3 years in a row potential unregistered emigrant
• 2011, 2012 and 2013 used for this exercise
Table 1: Overview of usual resident population not found in any of the activity status sources, Slovenia
1) Share calculated from population aged 16+ because persons aged 15+ in the first year are aged 16+ in the second year.
2) Share calculated from population aged 17+ because persons aged 15+ in the first year are aged 17+ in the third year.
Source: SURS
2011 2012 2013
Total population 2,050,189 2,055,496 2,058,821
of which aged 15+ 1,759,336 1,761,347 1,760,726
of which not found in any source but CPR 30,947 48,358 26,349
% not found 1.8 2.7 1.5
Not found on 2 consecutive reference dates - 23,919 20,471
% not found twice1) - 1.4 1.2
Not found on 3 consecutive reference dates - - 17,730
% not found three times2) - - 1.0
Potential unregistered emigrants 2
• 86% of usual residents not found were Slovenian citizens
• 14% foreign citizens is well above the share of this group in the usual resident population (4.7% on 1 January 2013 among those aged 17 or more)
• More than 3% of all foreign usual residents were not found, while among Slovenian citizens this share was just under 1%
• A person NOT counted as usual resident but appearing in at least one of the activity status data sources potential unregistered immigrant
• In this exercise only persons with registered permanent residence + registered temporary absence of more than 12 months were looked at.
• Fewer sources and only one year (2013) used:1. Statistical Register of Employment (SRDAP, internal source);
2. Registered unemployed persons (provided by Employment Service of Slovenia);
3. Students in vocational and professional higher education (statistical survey);
4. Income tax payers (provided by Tax administration of the Republic of Slovenia).
• Appearing in these sources would probably be a good indicator that a person is in fact a resident of Slovenia. Scholarships, pensions and health insurance are not necessarily indicative of this.
Potential unregistered immigrants 1
Potential unregistered immigrants 2
Table 2: Persons with registered permanent residence, temporarily absent for 12 months or more, in activity status data sources, Slovenia, 2013
1) Because a person is often found in more than one source, the sum of individual sources is higher than the number of all persons found at least once.
Source: SURS
Table 3: Derived activity status and source used for temporarily absent for 12 months or more who were found in at least one source, Slovenia, 2013
Source: SURS
Total 28,983of which aged 15+ 27,690
Found in at least one source1) 9,860SRDAP 2,116Registered unemployed 440Enrolled students 155Income tax payers 9,362
Source – total SRDAPRegistered
unemployedEnrolled students
Income tax payers
Activity status – total 9.860 2.116 437 103 7.204
Employed 2.900 2.116 - - 784
Unemployed 437 - 437 - -
Tertiary students 153 - - 103 50
Pensioners 6.370 - - - 6.370
What now?• Methodology for detecting unregistered migration not yet refined (especially
for immigration), year-to-year changes in data sources etc. We need to refine the methodology and ensure consistent data sources.
• What to do about unregistered migrations of children (under-15‘s can go undetected in some activity status data sources)? Additional data sources?
• Include described (but refined) procedures into the regular statistical process? Or would giving an estimate suffice?
• Sample survey planned as part of Eurostat grant for the action "Usual residence population: Feasibility studies„ See how relevant presented exercise and further analyses are.
